Cyber MondayUp to 80% OFF

Fed

CADJPY Breakdown Incoming? Specs Selling CAD, Buying JPY1. Retail Sentiment 68% long vs 32% short → The majority of retail traders are positioned long. From a contrarian perspective, this increases the risk of a downside move to flush out these long positions. 2. Seasonality JPY (September): historically tends to appreciate from mid-month onward. CAD (September): historically weak, with flat to negative performance. Seasonal Bias: favors strong JPY / weak CAD → bearish CADJPY outlook. 3. Commitment of Traders (COT) CAD (Sept 16, 2025): Non-commercials: still heavily net short (128k short vs 21k long). Commercials: strong long exposure (218k), but speculative flows remain bearish. Bias: CAD continues to be sold by speculators → bearish pressure. JPY (Sept 16, 2025): Non-commercials: net long (161k long vs 100k short). Commercials: strong shorts (163k), as usual for hedging. Bias: speculators are accumulating JPY longs, reinforcing strength. 👉 COT View = Weak CAD, Strong JPY → Bearish confirmation for CADJPY. 4. Technical Analysis Current price: 106.77, trading inside the daily demand zone (106.50–106.00). Structure: Well-defined descending channel. Multiple bounces in the 106.00–106.20 area → key support zone. RSI neutral, not yet oversold. Scenarios: Scenario A (probable): break below 106.20 → extension towards 105.50, then 104.80 (swing low zone). Scenario B (alternative): technical bounce from demand (106.20–106.00) → recovery towards 107.80/108.00 (weekly supply). ✅ Conclusion: CADJPY shows a bearish setup supported by COT, seasonality, and contrarian sentiment. The technicals highlight a descending channel with potential breakdown below 106.00. Best setups: short on pullbacks with targets at 105.50–105.00.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
RBA's Bullock says inflation under control, Aussie steadyRBA Governor Bullock testified before a parliamentary committee on Monday. Bullock said that inflation was in a "very good position" as higher interest rates had curbed demand. Still, she warned that there inflation risks remained on "both sides". Bullock was less positive about the geopolitical environment, warning that the significant change in the global trading system which had created massive uncertainty. The Reserve Bank was particularly concerned about the impact of US tariffs on China, Australia's largest trading partner. Bullock warned that the financial markets had not priced in the risks of the tariffs, which could affect financial stability if the the domstic economy was significantly affected by the tariffs. The RBA is expected to hold the cash rate at 3.6% at next week's meeting, after lowering rates by a quarter-point in August. The markets have priced in a 10% likelihood of a rate cut at the upcoming meeting, with an 86% likelihood of a cut in November. There are no US economic releases today but investors will be keeping a close eye on Fedspeak, with five FOMC members scheduled to deliver public remarks. New Fed Governor Miran, who voted for a 50-bp cut at the September 17 meeting, is expected to give a detailed explanation of his view in today's speech. At last week's meeting, the Fed signaled that more rate cuts were coming and the markets have priced in an October cut at 90%, according to CME's FedWatch. The Fed appears to have shifted to a more dovish stance after maintaining rates since December 2024 until lowering rates last week. AUDUSD tested support at 0.6589 and 0.6580 earlier. Next, there is support at 0.6567 There is resistance at 0.6602 and 0.6611
by OANDA
1
Macro Stress Test for Bitcoin: Short-Term Scalps or Swing Awaits__________________________________________________________________________________ Market Overview __________________________________________________________________________________ Bitcoin just experienced a violent flush toward its structural support (111,900–112,000) amid extreme intraday volatility. Downside has been aggressive, but core trend signals and volume dynamics hint at a potential technical reversal. Momentum : Neutral-bullish 📈 — Price action is anchored above 112,000, despite recent capitulation, with MTFTI remaining "Up" across all relevant timeframes. Key Levels : Resistances : — 116,200/117,000 (1D/12H), major cluster/weekly pivot — 114,200/114,400 (12H/6H/4H), tactical zone for initial rebounds Supports : — 111,900–112,000 (all TFs), structurally central platform — 110,900/111,200 (4H/2H), secondary defense to watch if breakdown occurs Volumes : Very high on 1H/30min/15min ⚡️— Clear signs of capitulation at support, technical bounce potential (short squeeze) activated. Multi-Timeframe signals : MTFTI reads "Up" from 1H to 1D, IGV/SPY (Risk On / Risk Off Indicator) is "Neutral Buy" (moderately positive), all confirming strength of support at 112,000. Only high-level macro dashboard signals remain defensive. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator : Neutral Buy bias — Recent stabilisation and moderate equity outperformance warrant a constructive view for tactical longs, though macro caution persists. __________________________________________________________________________________ Trading Playbook __________________________________________________________________________________ Current conditions are defined by a sharp flush but a directional "buy the dip" bias persists while MTFTI aligns positively. Global bias : Neutral-long — valid as long as 111,900–112,000 holds; invalidation on clean breakdown with sustained volume. Opportunities : — Tactical long/scalp on a confirmed bounce >112,000, add if 112,800 breaks, TP1 = 112,800, TP2 = 113,500. — Small short only if explosive breakdown <111,900 with confirming volume; TP1 = 111,500, TP2 = 111,200. Risk zones / invalidations : Any close below 111,900 without rapid buying flips the bias bearish; failed bullish engulfing/test nullifies the long tactic. Macro catalysts : — Fed begins an easing cycle as US jobs deteriorate/geopolitical risk rises; global liquidity (M2) still provides a tailwind. — Institutional BTC flows ("whale withdrawals", ETFs/funds) build above 115.2k, as long as on-chain base holds. — No major top signal; backdrop remains “risk-on/risk-off” but favors a tactical bounce. Action plan : Enter partial size above 112,000 on valid signal; stop <111,800; TP1 = 112,800, TP2 = 113,500; R/R ≈ 2.5 – scale out at resistance, manage dynamically on confirmation/failure. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Insights __________________________________________________________________________________ Price reacts tightly at 111,900/112,000, with core structure defended on all major time frames. 1D/12H/6H: Higher timeframes hold structure above 112,000, with liquidations targeting this support. "Buy the dip" playbook intact if level is defended. 4H/2H/1H: Extreme volume concentration and volatility, sellers pressured to exhaust; favor a quick bounce if buying appears immediately. 30min/15min: IGV/SPY (Risk On / Risk Off Indicator) prints "STRONG BUY" and ISPD DIV "BUY" — strong micro support for scalps/short-term longs. Divergences: Confidence for a swing long only resumes after a confirmed reclaim of 112,800; clean break of 111,900 exposes further downside risk. __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro & On-Chain Drivers __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro context remains tense despite strong global liquidity; absence of massive on-chain outflows remains key. Macro events : US jobs data weaken, geopolitical risks (NATO/Ukraine/Syria) rise, Fed kicks off easing, but all-time high global M2 supports risk assets. Bitcoin institutional flows : Strategic accumulation is visible (whale withdrawals, ETF inflow), no signs of euphoria/top; 115.2k–116k base is the critical pivot for breakout or renewed correction. On-chain data : With 95% of supply in profit >115.2k, on-chain resilience persists unless 111,900 breaks; major vulnerability accompanies loss of this support. Expected impact : 111,900–112,000 offers a prime tactical entry if macro liquidity endures and on-chain flows stay supportive; a fast bounce is plausible. __________________________________________________________________________________ Key Takeaways __________________________________________________________________________________ The market is caught between violent short-term capitulation and persistent bullish undertones. Despite the intense technical flush, the higher timeframe trend (MTFTI) still favors a tactical long/scalp stance while 111,900–112,000 is defended. The most actionable setup is a rapid rebound from extreme signals, while swing longs require confirmation above 112,800 and macro risk remains high. Robust on-chain support plus global liquidity create a narrow but real window for technical opportunity — but any significant breakdown should prompt defensive positioning. Stay nimble and ready to react to confirmation or risk escalation.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by Ox_kali
EUR/USD: Outlook, Catalysts and Q4 2025 Forecast 🔮✨EUR/USD: Outlook, Catalysts and Q4 2025 Forecast 💵 🎯 Q4 2025 Forecast & Range • Base-case: EUR/USD around $1.18–1.22 in Q4 2025, drifting toward ~1.20 by year-end. • Bull case: Faster US slowdown, Fed cuts, euro resilience → test 1.25+. • Bear case: Fed stays hawkish, euro weakens → drop toward 1.15 (with risk down to 1.10–1.12). Upside scenario 🚀: Fed cuts early, ECB steady, risks ease. EUR/USD breaks 1.20, retests 1.22–1.25 zone, option gamma squeezes add momentum. Downside scenario ⚠️: US data strong, Fed stays sticky, crisis drives safe-haven USD. EUR/USD drops below 1.15 → targets 1.10–1.12. On balance: Technicals & positioning favor base/bull outcome. EUR/USD above DMA cluster, sentiment allows more upside. Break >1.18 turns 1.20 into support, opens 1.22–1.25 zone. Invalidation = sharp drop below 1.15. Core thesis: The EUR/USD appears set for a higher range into late 2025 as U.S. dollar exceptionalism fades 💵➡️💶. Markets price a Fed pivot – several rate cuts penciled in by early 2026 – against an ECB that is nearly done easing. That narrows the US–EU rate gap and should weaken the dollar 📉. At the same time, softer US growth/inflation and global portfolio shifts away from US assets may further tilt the balance toward the euro 🌍. Conversely, any U.S. data surprises or policy hiccups could bolster the greenback ⚡. Our baseline view sees EUR/USD around 1.18–1.22 in Q4 2025, roughly mid‐range of consensus forecasts 📊. 📉 EUR/USD daily chart (2023–2025) with key support at ~1.15 and resistance near 1.18–1.20. The pair has traded in a ~1.14–1.18 range since early 2025. A decisive break above 1.18 could target ~1.20–1.22 upper trendline, while a drop below 1.15 might reopen ~1.10. ________________________________________ 🔍🌐 Macro & Policy Drivers • 💡 Fed vs. ECB monetary policy (10/10): By late 2025 the Fed is widely expected to start cutting rates possibly two 25bps cuts in Q4 2025, terminal ~3.5% by 2026, whereas the ECB has nearly finished its easing cycle. A shrinking interest gap ECB depo ~1.75%, Fed funds ~3.5% supports the euro. In short, Fed pivot = USD softening. • 📊 US economic momentum (9/10): Any further slowdown or disinflation in the U.S. will prompt Fed easing sooner, undermining the dollar. Conversely, surprisingly strong US data inflation above target, resilient GDP/jobs could keep rates higher longer, capping EUR/USD gains. • 🇪🇺 Eurozone fundamentals (8/10): Europe’s recovery – aided by lower energy costs – is improving. Eurozone GDP is running around ~1–1.5% and inflation is near target, so the ECB likely pauses on cuts. Any signs of renewed growth or fiscal stimulus in the EU e.g. German budget support would bolster EUR. On the other hand, fresh euro-area weakness or political instability could dent the euro. • 🏛️ US political/fiscal factors (7/10): Trade and tax policy continue to influence flows. A reported US–China tariff “ceasefire” has already eased pressure on global trade, but any renewed tariff battles could renew safe-haven USD demand. Meanwhile, US fiscal pressures debt ceiling fights, deficit spending or threats like Section 899 taxing foreign holders of US assets could undermine confidence in the dollar. • ⚔️ Geopolitical risks (6/10): War and geopolitical events tend to drive safe-haven flows. For example, any de-escalation in Ukraine/Middle East risk would remove a bid under USD and help EUR. Conversely, a severe global shock or “risk-off” event e.g. new conflict could rerate USD up. • 📅 Seasonality & flows (4/10): Historically, EUR/USD often sees end-of-year inflows year-end rebalancing and sometimes a modest Q4 rally. Some seasonal analyses note late-November/December strength institutions locking in positions. Weaker USD around year-end if it materializes would amplify this. • 📉 Options and positioning (4/10): Large options strikes and dealer hedging can accentuate moves. For example, heavy call skew on EUR/USD tends to make gains self-reinforcing via delta-hedging. Conversely, if open interest clusters into puts at key levels, dips could be cushioned. ________________________________________ 📈🧭 Technical Roadmap EUR/USD is currently in a multi-month range ∼1.14–1.18. The recent price action shows anchored VWAPs and moving averages 20/50/100-DMA ≈1.153–1.168 converging in that band. • 🚀 Resistance: Clear supply sits ~1.18–1.18 top of range. A daily close above ~1.182 could trigger a move toward 1.20–1.22. Above 1.22, next fib-derived targets near ~1.25. • 🛡️ Support: Immediate support is the 1.161 pivot 50-DMA and then ~1.153 100-DMA. A break below ~1.153 would expose ~1.147 and open 1.10–1.12 psychological and last year’s lows. Below ~1.10, USD strength could dominate. • ⚡ Momentum: RSI and ADX are modest, implying the range could persist until a trigger. A bullish path would need clear Fed dovish hints to break out. A breakout could show the classic “impulse → pause → trend” rhythm. ________________________________________ 🌀🤖 Advanced Models & Cycles Quant techniques also point to a stronger euro ahead: • Fourier-cycle analysis of FX data shows multi-month oscillations (~1–2 years). Mean-reversion cycles suggest the early-2025 USD bounce might flip into a euro-positive Q4. • Neural-network/ML models trained on macro + technical inputs often flag Fed/ECB divergence and seasonality. Academic LSTM studies have shown strong results for EUR/USD direction forecasting. ________________________________________ 🚀 Key Catalysts (Ranked 0–10) 🔑 • 🔟 Fed rate path: The timing/magnitude of Fed cuts is THE driver. Early or larger Fed cuts vs. ECB hold would lift EUR/USD. • 🔟 U.S. economic data: Inflation surprises CPI, PCE and jobs/GDP data move expectations fast. • 🔟 ECB stance: ECB rhetoric and inflation. Stability or hawkishness boosts EUR. • 🟫 US political/fiscal moves: Trade policy, deficit fights, and Section 899 proposals could weaken USD. • 🟩 Eurozone growth & policy: Strong EU growth or fiscal stimulus = bullish EUR. Severe slowdown = bearish EUR. • 🟨 Geopolitical shocks: Escalation boosts USD; de-escalation helps EUR. • 🟦 Energy/commodity prices: High oil hurts EU, boosts USD. • 🟧 Seasonal flows: Q4 rebalancing often lifts EUR modestly. • 🟪 Options positioning: Dealer hedging around strikes magnifies moves. • ⬛ Euro-area politics: Local risks e.g. Italian budgets, German politics. ________________________________________ 🏦📊 Analysts & Institutional Forecasts • JP Morgan: ~1.20 by Q4 2025, ~1.22 mid-2026. • ING: ~1.20 end-2025, ~1.22 in 2026. • UBS: 1.21 end-2025, 1.23 mid-2026. • Morgan Stanley: ~1.25 by Q2 2026 bull case 1.30. • Goldman Sachs: ~1.20 (12M). • Consensus: ~1.15 reflecting caution if Fed cuts are delayed. Summary: The prevailing view is a weaker dollar into 2026. Most big banks have upgraded EUR/USD targets since 2024. Consensus for Dec 2025 clusters 1.15–1.25, with top banks leaning 1.20+.
Long
by ProjectSyndicate
55
Bitcoin - Will Bitcoin Continue to Fall?!Bitcoin is currently below the EMA50 and EMA200 on the four-hour timeframe and is in its descending channel. In the event of an upward correction towards the specified supply zones, it is possible to sell Bitcoin with a better risk-reward ratio. It should be noted that there is a possibility of heavy fluctuations and shadows due to the movement of whales in the market and capital management in the cryptocurrency market will be more important. If the downward trend continues, we can buy within the demand range. Since early September, Bitcoin has shown a steady upward trend, largely fueled by expectations of a Fed rate cut at the FOMC meeting and optimism about its potential impact. When the Federal Reserve finally delivered the long-anticipated 0.25% rate reduction, Bitcoin declined by only about 1%. While the crypto market currently appears somewhat lackluster, the limited reaction can be viewed as a textbook example of the “buy the rumor, sell the news” dynamic. The overall cryptocurrency market capitalization remains above $4 trillion. According to CoinMarketCap data, the average performance of the top 20 cryptocurrencies was negative 0.43% during the past week. Meanwhile, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index stands at a neutral level of 51, down six points from last week, moving away from the “greed” zone. Fed Chair Jerome Powell characterized the rate cut as “risk management” rather than a measure to support a weak economy. This framing may explain the subdued market reaction. Given that markets had already priced in a 96% probability of a 0.25% cut before the official announcement, traders effectively executed the classic playbook of buying the rumor and selling the news. The political angle of the decision also added uncertainty. Steven Miran, the newly appointed Fed member and former economic adviser to Trump, cast the only dissenting vote, advocating for a larger 0.5% cut instead of the 0.25% reduction. A chart circulating in the market highlights potential liquidation zones. Prices below spot indicate long positions at risk of liquidation, while prices above spot point to short liquidations. At present, the Max Pain level for longs sits at $112.7K, while the Max Pain level for shorts is at $121.6K, with spot Bitcoin trading around $117.2K. This illustrates the market’s fragile balance—downward movement could trigger long liquidations, whereas an upward breakout may unleash a wave of short squeezes toward recent highs. Michael Saylor hinted at possible additional purchases, remarking: “The orange dots are moving upward.” He also described Bitcoin as a calm, fair, and impartial tool for resolving conflicts among people. Meanwhile, last week the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved new general standards that pave the way for broad-scale issuance of crypto-based exchange-traded funds (ETFs). These regulations allow exchanges such as NYSE, Nasdaq, and Cboe to list spot market crypto ETFs without case-by-case reviews. As a result, the approval timeline for ETFs has been shortened from over 240 days to around 75 days, greatly simplifying the process for asset managers. Dozens of new ETFs for cryptocurrencies like Solana, Ripple (XRP), and Dogecoin are expected to launch starting in October. This development effectively ends a decade-long case-by-case review process that dates back to the first Bitcoin ETF application in 2013. While the Trump administration supported progressive crypto regulation, this approach contrasts with the slower regulatory stance seen under Biden. Despite the regulatory breakthrough, firms stress that legal work, marketing efforts, and support services are still required to successfully launch these ETFs.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Ali_PSND
NAS100 - Stock Market, After the Fed Meeting!The index is above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the one-hour timeframe and is in its long-term ascending channel. If the drawn ascending trend line holds, we can expect the continuation of its previous upward path, but in case of a valid break, its downward path will be smoothed to the indicated support area. A week filled with significant events in global markets came to an end, with the Federal Reserve’s decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points standing out as the most important development. Although this move temporarily boosted the U.S. dollar, it failed to reverse its multi-day downtrend. Fed Chair Jerome Powell sought to frame the decision as a “risk management” measure, but the dot plot indicated that policymakers hold a different outlook, keeping the possibility of further cuts by year-end alive. Meanwhile, Paul Atkins, Chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), announced that in response to President Donald Trump’s request, he would propose a rule change to replace quarterly corporate reporting with semiannual reporting. In an interview with CNBC, he said this matter has been placed on the SEC’s immediate agenda. With Republicans holding a 3-1 majority on the commission, such a change could be approved by a simple majority vote. This move would disrupt the traditional reporting and disclosure cycle, making investors wait longer intervals for corporate financial information. In a Truth Social post, Trump wrote: “This change will cut costs and allow executives to focus on running companies properly instead of worrying about quarterly reports.” He also added: “You’ve heard people say China takes a 50- to 100-year perspective on corporate management, yet we run our companies quarter by quarter. That’s not good at all!” Atkins stressed that the matter remains only a proposal for now and requires review, meaning it is not yet finalized. Significant lobbying efforts are expected around this issue. Following a week dominated by central bank decisions, markets in the coming days will shift their attention to a wide range of inflation, industrial, and housing data. Alongside these releases, the speech of Steven Miran, the newly appointed Fed member, is set to be a pivotal moment for investors. Monday will be packed with monetary policy remarks, with Andrew Bailey and Huw Pill from the Bank of England, Rogers and Kozicki from the Bank of Canada, and Williams, Musalem, Barkin, and Harker from the Fed scheduled to speak. Nevertheless, the spotlight will be on New York, where Miran will deliver a speech at the Economic Club at noon local time. Having consistently advocated for faster and deeper rate cuts, his comments are being watched closely by markets. On Tuesday morning, the release of the preliminary S&P Global PMI for September will coincide with Jerome Powell’s first remarks following the recent FOMC meeting. A day later, U.S. new home sales data will be published. Thursday will bring the Swiss National Bank’s monetary policy decision. At the same time, markets will receive final U.S. Q2 GDP figures, durable goods orders, weekly jobless claims, and existing home sales data. The week will conclude on Friday morning with the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for August, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. On the same day, the revised University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey for September will also be released, offering a fuller picture of consumer confidence. Currently, many leading financial institutions expect further consecutive rate cuts in the Fed’s two remaining meetings of 2025. In this context, upcoming speeches from key Fed members could shape expectations. Markets are particularly focused on comments from Waller and Bowman, who previously opposed Miran’s proposal for a 50-basis-point cut. On the political side, it is anticipated that President Trump will once again direct sharp criticism at Powell, a factor that could weigh further on market sentiment. Separately, Berkshire Hathaway, led by Warren Buffett, has fully exited its investment in Chinese automaker BYD, ending a 17-year-long position. The divestment followed a gradual reduction of shares starting in 2022, and according to Berkshire’s energy unit, the investment had fallen to zero value by the end of Q1 2025. A company spokesperson confirmed that the position was fully closed. Meanwhile, BYD’s head of public relations expressed gratitude for Berkshire’s long-term support since 2008, noting that the ownership stake began shrinking in 2022 and fell below 5% by mid-2024. This investment is regarded as one of Berkshire’s most successful ventures in Asia.
CAPITALCOM:US100Short
by Ali_PSND
NASDAQ - setting up for Bearish SetupLooking for the bearish signal or the H4/Daily time frame, might get that final push for the D extension on the weekly timeframe, opening of the week might get a small pullback then continuation to the upside. Trade will be validated only if we get bearish PA setup on the H4/Daily. Looking for the setup to create a turn shape then can look for potential entries. If price does not present a bearish setup on the H4/Daily then the plan is no longer valid.
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100Short
by SKA_CAPITAL
Gold Sets New Record: Buy or Sell Amid the Market Frenzy?Hello traders, Last week, gold ended with an unexpected twist. Prices continued to climb on Friday (19/09), marking the 5th straight week of gains, reaching $3,683.24/oz, while futures advanced to $3,718.50/oz. This came right after the Fed cut interest rates—a move that was expected to “cool” gold. So, is this rally sustainable or just a trap? Fundamental Analysis: Rate Cuts Fuel Gold’s Rise After the Fed cut rates by 0.25%, the market saw chaotic trading, with gold hitting historic highs before a quick pullback. Still, the Fed’s message reinforced investor confidence in gold: Lower holding costs: Reduced interest rates lower the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold. Dovish Fed stance: Despite warning about persistent inflation, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari suggested job risks could lead to further cuts, raising expectations for looser policy. Strong demand: Physical gold demand remains high. In India, prices hit a 10-month peak, while in China, discounts widened to a 5-year high, signaling robust demand despite rising prices. Technical Analysis: Structure Break, Uptrend Resumes By the weekend, gold broke through its downtrend line, confirming a structural shift and highlighting strong buying pressure. This suggests the bullish trend may continue. Outlook: This week, focus remains on buying opportunities with short-term targets at $372x and $373x. However, caution is needed with upcoming macroeconomic events, which could trigger large liquidity zones and potential traps. Sample Trading Strategies (strict risk management): BUY SCALP: $3671–$3669 | SL: $3666 | TP: $3674–$3694 BUY ZONE: $3657–$3659 | SL: $3647 | TP: $3669–$3709 SELL SCALP: $3713–$3715 | SL: $3719 | TP: $3705–$3785 SELL ZONE: $3731–$3733 | SL: $3741 | TP: $3723–$3683 The market is heating up. Can gold smash through barriers to set fresh records? Share your thoughts below! 👇
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Jeremy_NPC
EUR/GBP at a Critical Level: Breakout or Fakeout?1. Seasonal Tendencies September over a 20y–15y horizon is historically neutral to slightly positive. In the last 5y and 2y, however, seasonality has shown stronger bullish tendencies with significant average gains. October, on the other hand, historically turns negative, suggesting that the current bullish momentum may face resistance and a potential reversal next month. 📌 Seasonal Conclusion: Short-term bullish support until the end of September, but a correction risk in October. 2. Sentiment 90% of retail traders are short from around 0.8623. Only 10% are long, with worse average entries at 0.8682. Such an extreme imbalance signals a high risk of a bullish squeeze: retail traders are fighting the trend and often end up trapped. 📌 Sentiment Conclusion: Contrarian bullish → likely continuation higher into liquidity zones. 3. Commitment of Traders (COT) Euro: Non-Commercials reduced longs (-4,788) and added shorts (+3,130). Commercials increased longs. Net pressure is bearish from speculators, but institutional support remains. Pound: Non-Commercials increased longs (+5,947) and cut shorts heavily (-21,078). Commercials drastically reduced longs (-71,750). Speculators are becoming more bullish on GBP, while institutions are scaling back. Short-term this may favor GBP, but with retail heavily short on EUR/GBP, there’s still room for upward pressure. 📌 COT Conclusion: Mixed outlook, but with a slightly bullish bias on EUR/GBP as long as the market unwinds retail shorts. 4. Technical Analysis (Daily Chart) EUR/GBP is trading at 0.8720, testing a daily supply area (0.8730–0.8770). Structure: ascending channel, with the latest bullish impulse from 0.8620. RSI is in overbought territory, signaling stretched conditions. 📌 Technical Conclusion: The market is at a critical juncture → a break above 0.8730 opens the door for longs, while a strong rejection would confirm a correction. Overall Bias: Slightly bullish in the short term (September + retail shorts), but reversal risk rises into October.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
14
SOFR Futures: Understand Market Pricing for future Fed PolicyWith the Federal Reserve having just cut interest rates and guiding towards further cuts this year and through 2026, I have received several requests to explain how traders can understand for themselves what the market is pricing and expecting for Fed policy by a specific point in time. Perhaps the more simplistic way to view what is priced or implied for the next FOMC meeting is to use the ‘FedWatch’ tool on the CME's website - www.cmegroup.com . This looks at the distribution of expectations for the next FOMC meeting, as implied in the fed funds futures pricing. Interest rate futures can guide our understanding of what’s priced One way traders can gauge the market’s expectations for future Fed policy—commonly referred to as “what is priced in”—is through interest rate futures pricing or in interest rate derivatives (interest rate swaps, for example). These are tradable instruments that allow investors and corporates to hedge their interest rate risk, while also giving speculators a vehicle to express views on where they see Fed interest rate policy at a specific point in time. TradingView doesn’t offer pricing on IR swaps, but it does offer pricing on SOFR 3-month futures and Fed funds futures, both of which can be useful in understanding where the market sees policy risk. My preference is SOFR futures, as they are comparatively more liquid, especially in the further-dated contracts for 2026 and 2027 and are more heavily traded than Fed funds futures. What is the SOFR rate? SOFR is one of, if not the most important, markets in the entire financial ecosystem. It is the first derivative of markets and is worth taking a moment to familiarise yourself with. SOFR (Secured Overnight Financing Rate) essentially represents the interest rate at which financial institutions lend cash overnight (and what borrowers pay), with borrowers pledging US Treasuries as collateral. The Federal Reserve influences SOFR through its monetary policy settings, with the rate typically tracking within the Fed’s target corridor. This corridor is defined by the upper bounds and what the Fed pays banks on reserves (currently 4.25%) and the lower bounds and what the Fed pays financial institutions that lend overnight repo to the Fed (the ‘RRP rate’, currently 4%). SOFR 3-month futures, therefore, reflect the market’s expectations of what the overnight risk-free rate will average over a defined three-month period at a forward point in time. For example, the SOFR 3-month December 2026 futures contract (TradingView code: SR3Z2026 ) reflects the market’s expected average interest rate on overnight cash borrowing from December 2026 through to the contract’s expiration on 16 March 2027. Since SOFR is guided by the Fed’s policy corridor, the futures price on that contract provides an indication of where the Fed could set interest rates at a given point in time. Calculating the markets expectations for future Fed policy from SOFR futures The price of SOFR 3-month futures moves dynamically through supply and demand, with rates traders reacting to economic data, Fed communications, sentiment in other markets (such as equities), and liquidity conditions. Upon expiration, futures are cash settled at 100 (or “par”), so the implied interest rate for a set contract is calculated as 100 minus the futures price. For example, if SR3Z2026 trades at 96.99, the implied rate for the SOFR between Dec 2026 and 16 March 2027 is 3.01% (100 – 96.99). If the current SOFR spot rate (TradingView code: SOFR) is 4.38%, this therefore implies that the market is pricing 139 basis points of further Fed rate cuts by early 2027. You can add all the SOFR 3-month futures contracts to a watchlist in TradingView, ordered by the contract period. For instance, starting with SR3U2025 (the September SOFR futures expiring on 16 December 2025). As we see in the screenshot, based on today’s curve, the perceived low point—or the pricing for the “terminal” rate—in the Fed’s cutting cycle is seen in the December 2026 contract, at 2.99%. Why is this useful for all traders? Firstly, it provides a clear guide to the market’s view of future Fed policy and what is currently already discounted in interest rate markets. This matters because the USD, US Treasuries, equities, and even gold tend to move in line with—or inversely to—shifts in interest rate futures pricing. If the market has fully priced in a rate cut, then when the Fed delivers that cut, the market reaction should be minimal. Conversely, if the market expects little or no cut and the Fed surprises by cutting rates, one can expect an outsized reaction in assets like the USD or US 2-year Treasury yields. This makes SOFR futures incredibly helpful for traders across asset classes when managing risk around key data releases or Fed meetings. They can also help assess perceived recession risk. If the Fed’s “neutral rate”—the equilibrium setting that is neither stimulatory nor restrictive—is 3%, and the market prices the terminal rate in the cutting cycle at the same level, this suggests a low probability of recession. A recession risk scenario would likely see the market pricing the Fed’s terminal rate well below 2.5%. Given how often the question “how do I know what’s priced in?” comes up, I hope this offers a clear framework for assessing it through SOFR futures on TradingView. Good luck to all
CME:SR3Z2026
by Pepperstone
Bullish compression below 117k: game plan and risks__________________________________________________________________________________ Market Overview __________________________________________________________________________________ The trend stays bullish but capped by a multi‑TF supply zone, with higher lows supporting the structure. Event‑driven flow (options/witching) may trigger fakeouts around key levels. Momentum: Bullish 📈 yet constrained below 116.9k–117,322; buyers control as long as 116.2k–116.3k holds. Key levels: - Resistances (HTF/ITF): 116,900–117,322 (multi‑TF decision zone); 117,950–118,000 (intraday liquidity); 120,000 (psychological shelf). - Supports (ITF/HTF): 116,200–116,300 (intraday floor); 114,500–114,800 (240/720 pivot cluster); 111,965.8 (weekly support). Volumes: Overall normal; 4H moderate (watch for a volume spike on breakout). Multi-timeframe signals: 1D/12H bullish (MTFTI filter), 6H/4H tactically supportive below 117,322; 15m micro risk‑off → prefer confirmed breakout or buy on support. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator: Neutral buy — aligns with momentum, but the 1D macro dashboard remains risk‑off, arguing for patience. __________________________________________________________________________________ Trading Playbook __________________________________________________________________________________ The dominant stance is cautious‑bullish below resistance; favor pro‑trend executions on confirmed signals. Global bias: Buy‑the‑dip while 116.2k–116.3k holds; key invalidation below 114,787.9. Opportunities: - Breakout buy: daily/4H “break & hold” above 117,322 aiming 118k then 120k. - Pullback buy: 116.2k–116.3k with 1H/2H bullish reaction, add above 117.0k. - Tactical sell (counter‑trend): fade a clean rejection at 116.9k–117.3k, tight stop > 117.6k, targets 116.2k then 114.5k. Risk zones / invalidations: - A break below 114,787.9 invalidates the bullish bias and opens 114,471.7 then 111,965.8. - No close > 117,322 over 2 bars (4H/1D) reduces breakout odds. Macro catalysts (Twitter, Perplexity, news): - Fed: −25 bps; USD still firm → whipsaw risk around witching/rebalancing. - BoJ accommodative and softer oil → lighter inflation pressure, tactical risk support. - Large options expiries ahead → gamma/hedging flows can amplify false breaks. Action plan: - Entry: Buy 116,200–116,350 (confirmed 1H/2H bullish reaction). - Stop: Below 115,950 (1H close). - TP1/TP2/TP3: 117,000 / 117,950–118,000 / 120,000. - R/R approx: ~2.5R / ~5–6R / >10R from a 116.25k core entry. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Insights __________________________________________________________________________________ HTFs are bullish while LTFs manage a compression under 117,322; the key trigger is a confirmed, high‑volume breakout. 1D/12H/6H: Uptrend compressing below 117,322; 114.5k–114.8k is the buy zone; best setups are clean breakout or controlled dip buys. 4H: Strong if triggered; “break & hold” > 117,322 with rising volume unlocks 118k then 120k. 2H/1H/30m: Range 116.2k–117.3k; watch reactions at 116.2k; 4H moderate volume could catalyze the move. 15m: Mild sell pressure; risk of a support sweep before any trigger — avoid anticipating without confirmation. Major confluence/divergence: Single resistance 116.9k–117,322 across TFs; macro 1D risk‑off vs 4H/6H tailwinds → demand confirmation and volume. __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro & On-Chain Drivers __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro is mixed: tactical support post‑Fed contrasts with a 1D risk‑off backdrop, while options flows may dominate near‑term action. Macro events: Fed −25 bps (tactically risk‑on), USD still firm (headwind for BTC), cluster of events (quad‑witching, rebalancing, expiries) fosters whipsaws; BoJ easy stance and softer oil ease inflation; persistent geopolitical noise. Bitcoin analysis: Positive ETF inflows and high IBIT volumes back demand; whale withdrawals from institutional venues reduce immediate spot supply — supportive if breakout confirms. On-chain data: ~95% of supply in profit with a key line near ~115.2k; record options OI (~500k BTC) and max pain ~110k for 26 Sep → potential magnets; perp OI stabilized. Expected impact: Setup aligns with a cautious‑long bias, but a move > 117,322 needs a volume spike to avoid a head‑fake. __________________________________________________________________________________ Key Takeaways __________________________________________________________________________________ BTC is bullish but stuck beneath a key multi‑TF resistance. Trend is positive; the most relevant setup is a “break & hold” above 117,322 (or a controlled dip buy at 116.2k–116.3k) with confirming volume. On the macro side, the Fed’s rate cut helps, but options expiries can blur signals. Be patient, trade confirmed triggers, and defend invalidations.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Ox_kali
Dot Plot Divide: Dollar Gains, Gold Stalls The USDJPY spiked lower following the Fed’s 25 basis point cut yesterday but quickly reversed trajectory as the dot plot projections from the FOMC came in softer than markets had expected. The updated dot plot showed a narrow majority of FOMC members anticipating two more small rate cuts in 2025, while others leaned toward just one or even none. This potentially suggests that the Fed is not simply aligning with Trump sycophant and newly appointed FOMC board member Stephen Miran’s aggressive call for repeated 50-basis-point cuts and instead signals an element of independence. USDJPY (left chart, 1H): The pair has carved out a sharp V-shaped reversal after its Fed-driven dip, showing strong bullish momentum. This suggests buyers remain in control unless a reversal candle (such as a bearish engulfing) forms. XAUUSD (right chart, 4H): Gold’s rally topped out near 3,707 before pulling back more than 600 pips to 3,646. The most recent candles show shorter bodies with upper wicks — a potential sign of fading momentum and supply pressure. If this develops into a bearish continuation pattern, the channel’s border becomes the next area of focus.
by BlackBull Markets
Gold Outlook: Bearish Below 3,676, Bulls Need 3,684 BreakGOLD – Overview Gold remains sensitive ahead of the Federal Reserve rate decision, with volatility also influenced by the potential U.S.–U.K. trade deal. A Fed rate cut typically supports gold, but A successful U.S.–U.K. trade deal would reduce safe-haven demand, adding bearish pressure. Technical Outlook 📉 Bearish scenario Price may first test 3,676, then drop toward 3,666 → 3,657. A sustained break below 3,657 would open deeper downside toward 3,640. 📈 Bullish scenario A confirmed 1H close above 3,684 would signal bullish continuation. Upside targets: 3,693 → 3,700 → 3,711. Key Levels Pivot: 3,676 Resistance: 3,684 – 3,699 – 3,711 Support: 3,666 – 3,657 – 3,640 📌 Market Context: Fed Decision: A dovish Fed or larger cut could lift gold toward 3,693+. U.S.–U.K. Trade Deal: Positive headlines would likely weigh on gold by reducing safe-haven flows.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by SroshMayi
1
Bank of England holds rates, British Pound slipsThe Bank of England stayed on the sidelines at today's meeting, maintaining interest rates at 4.0%. This followed a quarter-point cut in August. The decision was anticipated by the markets and the British pound is showing limited movement. The 7-2 vote saw two members vote for a quarter-point cut. Last month's decision to lower rates was decided by a 5-4 vote and took an unprecedented two rounds. The split votes reflect dissension within the BoE with regard to the Bank's future monetary policy. The BoE has been trying to balance rising inflation, which supports holding rates, with the slowdown in the jobs market, which is putting pressure on the central bank to lower rates and ease economic conditions. The BoE cannot ignore inflation, which rose to 3.8% in August, close to double the BoE's target of 2%. Unless inflation slows markedly, the BoE may have to wait until 2026 to lower rates. The Federal Reserve lowered rates by a quarter-point on Wednesday. The decision, which was widely expected, was the first rate cut since December 2024. The rate statement cited the cooling labor market as the main reason behind the rate cut. In his press conference, Fed Chair Powell reiterated his concern about the deteriorating job market and said that the risk of higher and more persistent inflation has eased. Perhaps the highlight of the meeting was the 'dot plot', which charts the expected rate path of members who participated at the meeting. The dot plot indicated that most members expect two more rate cuts before the end of the year, which means the Fed is in a very dovish mood.
by OANDA
The Big Fed Rate Cut Is Here. How Did Markets Do & What’s Next?“ Best we can do is 25bps ,” officials, probably, when they gathered to lower the federal funds rate. It wasn’t the 50 basis points some of you had expected. But you also didn’t expect to hear that two more trims are most likely coming by year end. Let’s talk about that and what it means for your trading. 🎤 Powell Delivers The Federal Reserve finally trimmed rates for the first time in nine months, cutting the federal-funds rate by 25 basis points to 4%–4.25%. This was hardly a surprise. Markets had already fully priced in a quarter-point move. But the real twist was the Fed boss hinting at two more cuts this year. With just two FOMC meetings on the calendar, it’s pretty clear: unless something changes dramatically, traders should expect a cut at both. The decision wasn’t unanimous. Newly minted, Trump-appointed Fed governor Stephen Miran wanted to go big or go home with a 50bps slash. Powell, though, balanced his message by saying risks to the labor market had grown while inflation was still running at 2.9% (way above target). What does this mean? The Fed’s dual mandate of price stability and full employment is officially leaning toward protecting jobs at the risk of flaring up inflation. 💵 Dollar Takes a Dive The immediate reaction was classic. A weaker dollar is the natural byproduct of lower rates, and the greenback obliged by sliding against major peers. The FX:EURUSD pushed toward $1.19, its highest in four years, while the FX:GBPUSD tested $1.37 and the FX:USDJPY sank below ¥146. For forex traders, this was textbook: lower yields make the dollar less attractive, especially compared to rivals with steadier or higher returns. But that was a reaction to the initial shock. By early Thursday the dollar bounced back, because markets love to overreact before correcting, but the broader trend is still tilted bearish . 📈 Stocks: Buy the Rumor, Sell the News Stocks were less enthusiastic. The S&P 500 SP:SPX hovered near flat, the Nasdaq Composite NASDAQ:IXIC slipped 0.3% for a second straight loss, and the Dow Jones TVC:DJI managed to buck the trend with a 260-point climb. The takeaway? Traders had already bought the rumor of rate cuts, jammed their cash into equities, so when Powell delivered the expected 25bps, it wasn’t enough to light another fire. The bigger hope lies in those promised future cuts, which could set the stage for another push higher – especially if Big Tech earnings hold up through the third quarter. (For the record, earnings season is almost here.) Thursday's futures contracts were showing a big jump ahead of the opening bell with Nasdaq futures up by more than 1%. 🟡 Gold Shines, Then Stumbles Gold OANDA:XAUUSD did what gold usually does when the Fed loosens policy: it powered up. Bullion was surfing on the high point of its all-time record of $3,700, before sliding back under $3,640. What’s the logic behind rising gold prices and a falling dollar? In a low-yield environment, non-yielding assets like gold look more attractive, and a weaker dollar only sweetens the deal for overseas buyers. Still, this week’s whipsaw reminded everyone that gold is no straight line up – momentum is there, but so are the bears guarding resistance. 🟠 Bitcoin Shrugs Crypto was more muted. Bitcoin BITSTAMP:BTCUSD slipped 1.2% after the cut, dipping toward $115,000, only to bounce back above $116,000 the next morning. For the orange coin, the Fed story is just background noise. Institutional inflows and ETF demand remain the key drivers, and traders are still gauging whether crypto wants to behave like a risk asset or play its “digital gold” role. Still, the OG coin remains off its $124,000 record from mid-August , the market seems caught between consolidation and correction. ⚖️ The Balancing Act The Fed’s challenge is clear: unemployment is rising, job gains are slowing , and payrolls have been revised lower for months. At the same time, inflation has crept back up, with core prices still well above target. Cutting too much risks reigniting price pressures; cutting too little risks a labor-market slide that could snowball into recession. Powell chose the middle ground – a modest 25bps – and teased with two more to calm investor nerves. 👀 What’s Next? Markets now have a new playbook: watch every jobs report ECONOMICS:USNFP , every CPI ECONOMICS:USCPI release, and every Powell presser between now and December. If job creation continues to cool, the Fed will likely follow through with the cuts. If inflation heats up, those cuts may get scaled back. And if both trends stall, expect chop – the dreaded sideways trade that tests everyone’s patience. What can you do in this situation? One message is to stay nimble. The dollar’s longer-term weakness is reshuffling the forex space, gold is on the cusp of a breakout, and stocks remain in record territory. And crypto is doing its usual unpredictable mood swinging. In a nutshell, Powell gave markets a gift in the form of liquidity, but as history reminds us, the Fed giveth and the Fed taketh away. 👉 Off to you : What’s your strategy in this market? Now that you have the cut (and two more likely on the way), are you bullish or bearish? Share your thoughts in the comments!
ECONOMICS:USINTR
by TradingView
14
Gold faces pressure with data-dependent stanceGold prices increased after the Fed cut the rate by 0.25%, bringing the Fed fund rate to 4.0 - 4.25%. The dot plot showed two more cuts in 2025 by 0.5% and only a 0.25% cut in 2026 and 2027 each. The Fed also indicated the inflation risk and forecast inflation to be up to 3.1% by the end of this year. It stressed that the labor market is weakening now amid an elevated unemployment rate that has remained low. However, the gold price fell after Fed Chair Powell's speech, which emphasized a data-dependent stance and raised expectations of more aggressive action from the Fed. Markets need to observe the next labor data to evaluate how bad the labor market is, which could affect concerns over the US economy's stagflation, which could support the gold price in the medium term. Technically, the XAUUSD broke down under the EMA21 but remains above the EMA78, indicating that the bullish momentum is weakening. If the XAUUSD closes under 3660, it may prompt a retest of the next support at 3600. By Van Ha Trinh, Financial Market Strategist at Exness
OANDA:XAUUSD
by WiseLeoTrading
Bank of Canada lowers rates, Canadian dollar edges upwardsThe Canadian dollar has posted small gains on Wednesday. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3762, up 0.17% on the day. There were no surprises from the Bank of Canada, which lowered its policy rate by a quarter-point to 2.5%, its lowest level since July 2022. This was the first time the Bank of Canada lowered rates since March, as it was forced to respond to signs of weakness in the economy and lower inflation. The rate statement said that a rate cut was justified, given that the economy had weakened and there was less upside risk to inflation. The US tariffs were expected to have a further dampening effect on economic activity. The statement made three references to the uncertainty of the economic outlook, which has required the BoC to act cautiously. At a follow-up press conference, Governor Macklem defended the rate cut due to a weaker labor market and less upside pressure on underlying inflation. What was missing from the rate statement and press conference was any forward guidance about future rate cuts, as the central bank doesn't want to be pushed into any corners with regard to future decisions. If inflation risks continue to fade, the BoC could deliver one or even two rate cuts before the end of the year. The Federal Reserve is virtually certain to lower rates at today's meeting, barring a monumental surprise. The expected rate cut would be the Fed's first since December 2024. With the rate decision virtually a given, investors will be looking for some clues as to whether the Fed is looking at further rates cuts before the end of the year. USD/CAD is testing resistance at 1.3752. Above, there is resistance at 1.3770 There is support at 1.3721 and 1.3703
by OANDA