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Gold softens after Fed minutes as smokestacks cap every rally Is there any way we can get a December rate cut now? Gold has softened after the release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve's last interest rate decision. The minutes show there’s no unified push toward cutting, which could make a December move unlikely. Several Federal Reserve officials supported lowering rates in October, but others preferred keeping policy unchanged, and some pushed back firmly against easing. Technically, XAUUSD continues to form smokestacks, printing repeated double-top structures. The price is now hovering around 4,070, sitting under possible short-term resistance at 4,150. XAUUSD losing the 50-day MA further could shift bias more decisively lower.
BLACKBULL:XAUUSD
by BlackBull Markets
NVDA Earnings, FOMC Minutes, US Non-Farm OH MY!!!All eyes on NVDA and earnings - they matter (a lot) More important than a beat or miss is the price action around NVDA earnings -bulls have a long ways to go to reclaim all-time highs -bears have pressured NVDA enough that it seems like major support could break FOMC Minutes today -CME Fed Watch Tool is literally 50/50 on the December rate cut outlook -if the FED doesn't cut in December, they will likely be cutting in early 2026 US Employment Data -Remember Non-Farm Payroll? Well it's back with a Thursday release -58k forecasted, 4.3% unemployment forecasted -let's see how the release is taken by the markets Although it feels like "the brink" in many ways, my thoughts as expressed in the video are I believe the market can win both ways and just provide wild volatility but no real direction or follow through. Negative sentiment is truly awful and it rarely rewards the bears with a sustainable down move. Seasonality is expected but perhaps bulls have grown too complacent. Therefore, the market is comfortable making everybody uncomfortable More to come later this week when the smoke clears or the dust settles Thanks for watching!!! CP
NASDAQ:CEG
by ChrisPulver
1
USDCAD: Patient Fed & oil drop support iH&S projection to 1.4370USDCAD is building an interesting medium-term setup as crude oil weakness combines with Fed patience and supports dollar strength against the loonie, with an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern pointing to a measured-move target near 1.4370. Crude oil recently broke below $60, directly pressuring the Canadian dollar since Canada is a major commodity exporter. Meanwhile, the Fed's cautious stance on rate cuts, despite labour market softness ahead of a potential partial NFP on Friday, keeps the buck bid as investors hold dollars for yield. The technical structure confirms what the macro backdrop suggests: USDCAD has room to run higher from current levels. Key drivers Oil breakdown hurts CAD: crude slipped below $60 recently, and every time oil weakens, the commodity-linked loonie follows. This correlation has been tracking cleanly since July, when USDCAD turned higher alongside the energy sell-off. Fed patience supports USD: Despite labour-market weakness signals from existing data releases, the Fed isn't rushing to cut in December, and a patient central bank typically supports the dollar because investors can hold dollars and earn decent carry while awaiting clarity on policy. Inverse H&S pattern: The technical setup shows a head near 1.3537, a neckline breakout near 1.3900, and a clean retest at 1.3985 (former 2022 resistance turned support). The measured move from head to neckline brings 1.4370 into play, with intermediate targets at swing levels. RSI reset above 50: After showing flat divergence at the recent highs, the RSI has reset by bouncing cleanly off the 50 line on the daily chart, suggesting momentum has room for another leg higher before any overbought concern. Use 1.3985 as your line in the sand, consider longs above this level with the first target at the peak of 1.4145 (validation of the breakout), the second at 1.4250, and trail stops toward 1.4370 if momentum holds. Watch for oil to remain below $60 and Fed messaging to stay cautious, as a daily close below 1.3985 would shift the bias to consolidation, while full pattern invalidation sits at 1.3720. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Long
by ThinkMarkets
DXY firmed between the hawkish Fed and Waller call of cuts. The dollar strengthened despite the contrast between the Fed’s overall hawkish tone and Waller’s support for rate cuts. Cleveland Fed President Hammack noted that policy must remain somewhat restrictive to bring inflation back to target, while St. Louis Fed President Musalem also emphasized that any policy easing should proceed cautiously. In contrast, Fed Governor Waller said he is not concerned about a renewed acceleration in inflation and argued that several months of labor-market softness justify additional rate cuts. He added that tariffs are unlikely to have a lasting impact on inflation and that restrictive policy is increasingly weighing on the economy, particularly on lower- and middle-income households. DXY briefly tested the support at 99.30 before climbing above both EMAs. The converging EMAs indicate a potential shift toward a bullish trend. If DXY closes above both EMAs, the index may advance toward 99.80. Conversely, if DXY breaks below both EMAs and 99.30, the index could retreat toward the next support at 99.00.
TVC:DXY
by inkicho_exness
US500 slipped on AI-bubble fears and the Hawkish Fed Stocks weakened last week as the Fed’s revived hawkish tone and mounting concerns over stretched AI valuations outweighed strong earnings from major AI names. Despite upbeat 3Q results, fears of an AI bubble continued to build. AMD CEO Su highlighted insatiable demand for AI chips, projecting the data-center market to reach 1tln USD by 2030 and forecasting an average annual growth rate of 35% for AMD over the next five years. Morgan Stanley warned of an impending power shortage within a year as AI expansion accelerates. while Microsoft CEO Nadella pointed out that the biggest bottleneck is not compute capacity but power, noting that parts of the company’s GPU inventory lack sufficient power connectivity. US500 briefly retested the support at 6650 before rebounding. EMA21 has death-crossed EMA78, indicating a potential shift toward a bearish structure. If US500 fails to close above the support at 6700, the index could retreat toward 6650. Conversely, if US500 breaches above both EMAs and the resistance at 6800, the index may advance toward the following resistance at 6920.
CAPITALCOM:US500
by inkicho_exness
USDCAD: Institutions Accumulating? Perfect Pullback Into FVG1. MACRO & COT FRAMEWORK COT – CAD → Speculators remain heavily net short on CAD. The Canadian dollar shows a massive net-short imbalance, exceeding 100k net contracts. Speculators are still selling CAD aggressively → supportive for upside continuation on USD/CAD. COT – USD → USD is still net short overall, but positioning is shifting. The dollar is beginning to reverse positioning: fewer shorts + more longs = improving USD strength. → Overall COT environment favors further upside for USD/CAD. 2. RETAIL SENTIMENT Retail Longs: 51% Retail Shorts: 49% Retail is almost evenly split, slightly long. This is mostly neutral, but historically, when sentiment is balanced, price tends to follow institutional flows → which remain long USD/CAD. Sentiment confirms a bullish bias. 3. SEASONALITY (USD/CAD – November) November is historically a slightly bullish month for USD/CAD. The 20-year, 15-year, and 10-year composites all show a positive seasonal tendency. The current month is tracking a similar pattern. Seasonality supports a long bias into the second half of November. 4. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS The pair remains in a structurally bullish uptrend with a clean ascending channel. Higher highs and higher lows confirm trend integrity. Price is currently correcting toward the mid-range of the channel. The market is entering a Daily FVG between 1.3950 – 1.3980. A prior sweep has already tapped the lower trendline, adding confluence. Immediate Support Zone 1.3950 – 1.3980 (FVG + structural support) → ideal area for long accumulation. Upside Target: 1.41500 → clear liquidity level above previous swing high. RSI remains above 40 and cooling off, indicating a healthy pullback within a bullish trend.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
8
DXY: Is it going to break the 100 level or not?Fundamental approach: - The US Dollar Index (DXY) traded sideways this week amid stronger global risk sentiment and fading demand for safe-haven assets. The continued US government shutdown delayed key data releases. - At the same time, the ISM Services PMI rose to an eight-month high, and the ADP report showed stronger-than-expected private job gains, supporting a cautious Fed outlook on further rate cuts. Nevertheless, weak consumer sentiment and rising weekly jobless claims reinforced downside pressure on the dollar index.​ - Underlying drivers this week included mixed US data, with upbeat labor and service sector figures contrasting with deteriorating consumer and business sentiment. Investors trimmed bets on imminent Fed rate cuts. - Looking forward, the DXY may remain heavy as long as safe-haven demand stays muted and official US data is delayed due to the shutdown. Technical approach: - DXY retested the psychological level at around 100 and rejected. The price is above both EMAs, indicating upward momentum is still intact. -If DXY remains below 100, the price may retest the following support at 99.40, which is confluenced with the lower bound of the ascending channel. - Conversely, breaching above 100 may prompt a conviction to retest the next resistance at 101.70. Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
TVC:DXYLong
by DatTong
2
The dollar softens as weak data boosts Fed rate-cut expectations According to ADP data, US companies laid off an average of 11,250 employees per week in October, reaffirming how quickly labor market conditions have softened over the past two weeks. Meanwhile, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell for a second straight month to 98.2 (prev. 98.9, cons. 98.3), marking the lowest level since April’s reciprocal tariff announcement. The NFIB noted that the government shutdown and tariffs have weighed on business sales. The dollar may stay range-bound, awaiting fresh price catalysts between hopes for a shutdown resolution and further Fed rate cuts. DXY briefly tested the ascending channel's lower bound before rebounding slightly. The index remains between both EMAs, suggesting a potential extension of the consolidation trend. If DXY closes above EMA21, the index may advance toward the following resistance at 99.80. Conversely, if DXY breaks below EMA78 and the support at 99.50, the price could fall below the channel’s lower bound.
TVC:DXY
by inkicho_exness
EURAUD: Institutional Buying Pressure & Bullish November SetupThe pair has broken out of the descending channel and is now forming a new ascending structure. Price reacted strongly from the 1.7550–1.7600 demand zone, which aligns with a key structural support and an oversold RSI area. The current consolidation phase is unfolding below a daily inefficiency (gap) around 1.7800–1.7920, which represents the first bullish target. If the bullish structure holds, we could see a three-wave move towards 1.7920, with a potential mid-term pullback to 1.7700 before the next impulsive leg. 🔹 2. COT Report Euro (EUR) Non-commercials: 252k long vs 138k short → net long Commercials: strongly net short Weekly change: +2.6k shorts / -789 longs → slightly reduced bullish momentum ➡️ EUR remains fundamentally strong, though speculative momentum has slightly cooled. Australian Dollar (AUD) Non-commercials: 42k long vs 101k short → deeply net short Shorts increased by +10k this week, indicating renewed institutional bearish pressure. ➡️ AUD remains weak with a clear bearish bias. 👉 Overall COT bias: favors EUR strength and AUD weakness, supporting a bullish view on EURAUD. 🔹 3. Seasonality EUR typically strengthens in November, especially during the last 10 days of the month (+0.003 / +0.004 average). AUD historically shows November weakness across 10Y, 5Y, and 2Y averages. ➡️ Seasonal patterns support the bullish case for EURAUD, aligning with COT positioning. 🔹 4. Retail Sentiment 70% short vs 30% long ➡️ Retail traders are heavily short, providing a contrarian bullish signal. 📈 Conclusion The medium-term bias remains bullish on EURAUD, with potential upside extension toward 1.7920, and possibly 1.8050 if macro momentum persists. The key support to defend lies at 1.7600 / 1.7550. A daily close below this level would invalidate the bullish scenario and reopen the path toward 1.7400.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
4
EUR/USD at the Edge: Bounce Before Breakdown?🧩 Macro & COT Context (Note: data frozen as of September 23 due to CFTC shutdown) The latest available COT report showed non-commercial traders still net long on EUR (≈ +114K contracts), but with a steady increase in both commercial longs (+4.9K) and commercial shorts (+3.3K) — signaling a more balanced positioning. Meanwhile, the USD Index showed a slight pickup in long exposure (+1.5K), hinting at a gradual shift toward USD strength until updated data resumes. 💭 Sentiment Retail traders are 67% short vs 33% long, a typical contrarian setup where the crowd is selling the pullback. This supports a short-term bullish bounce, but only until the next supply zone is reached. 📈 Seasonality Historically, November has been a neutral-to-bearish month for EUR/USD (-0.0021 on 20Y average; -0.0063 on 10Y). The pair tends to weaken during the second half of the month, before recovering into December. 📊 Technical Structure (Daily Chart) Price remains inside a descending channel since late September, recently retesting the upper boundary and supply area at 1.1570–1.1710, where a clean rejection formed. RSI holds below the midline (~45), confirming weak momentum. The overall structure stays bearish, with room for continuation toward the 1.1380–1.1400 demand zone, aligning with both channel projection and liquidity targets. Main Bias: Short continuation Sell Zone: 1.1570–1.1620 (upper channel + supply) Target 1: 1.1400 Target 2: 1.1350 (weekly liquidity pool) Invalidation: Daily close above 1.1715 Summary 📊 COT (last update): EUR still net long → neutral bias until new data 📉 Seasonality: Historically weak November 📈 Sentiment: Retail short → short-term bullish bounce possible 🧭 Technical Bias: Bearish below 1.1715
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
3
10/11/25 Weekly OutlookLast weeks high: $110,732.65 Last weeks low: $98,972.09 Midpoint: $104,852.37 Bitcoins price action of last week tells an interesting story. The first trading hour of the week marked the weekly high, a sharp decline towards HTF support at $99,000 marked the weekly bottom, to finish the week a late surge recovered some of the losses to end the week at the range midpoint. The double bottom at range low is a good sign for the bulls in a must win contested area around the $100,000 mark, not only is it a big even level but a HTF key S/R level too. Should the bulls lose this weekly low it opens the door to a $92,000 retest. For the bulls should this rebound persist a flip of $108,000 is key but there is certainly a lack of spark in the markets at the moment. I don't see the bulls making any significant ground until the US Government shutdown is announced to be coming to an end. This announcement could happen at any time and so this week that's what I am making plans for, how will the market react, volatility on announcement etc... Good luck this week everybody!
by ProR35
The Real DealWhile global markets fixate on AI and the Fed’s next move, a quieter but equally powerful story is unfolding in Brazil. The real is back in the spotlight, underpinned by some of the highest real yields globally, resilient fundamentals, and a shifting trade order that could reshape currency flows in the quarters ahead. Figure 1: BRLUSD BRL recently broke above the neckline of a multi-month ascending triangle but has since recovered, trading back within the pattern. A more decisive break above could signal renewed BRL strength. The COVID-19 era saw the BRL fall to historic lows as Brazil faced a fiscal and health crisis, only partially recovering as global liquidity loosened in 2020–2021. More recently, BRLUSD hit record lows again, breaching 0.1600, before stabilizing as the policy backdrop shifted. Figure 2: BCB’s Rate Hike Amid resurgent inflation, BRL depreciation, and fiscal expansion, the Central Bank of Brazil (BCB) raised rates aggressively through the second half of 2024, adding 450 basis points in total. Figure 3: Persistent Inflation Strong domestic demand, supported by fiscal spending, wage growth, and a tight labor market, reignited inflation in 2024. With the added risk of higher import prices from tariffs, both headline and core inflation remain above the bank’s 3.0% target and the upper tolerance band of 4.5%. In the latest meeting, the BCB maintained its headline inflation forecasts for 2025 and 2026 at 4.8% and 3.6%, respectively. Figure 4: Modest Growth Tight monetary conditions have weighed on sentiment. The Business Confidence Index has been trending lower since early 2025, while the Leading Economic Index, which is commonly used to predict future economic turning points, has been negative since May. GDP growth remains resilient for the first half of 2025, but data from the IBC-BR Economic Activity Index, which is widely used as a preview of the GDP figures, suggest moderation is underway. Figure 5: A Robust Labor Market With unemployment at a historic low of 5.6%, and strong wage growth, consumer spending remains a key engine of growth. However, rising inflation has eroded purchasing power, limiting real wage gains. Figure 6: Central Bank Rates The BCB has stated it will keep the Selic rate at its current restrictive level “for a very long period” to guide inflation back to target and is ready to hike again if needed. This stance has widened interest rate differentials between Brazil and most developed markets. Meanwhile, the Fed’s first rate cut of the year has reinforced this divergence, as it shifts toward balancing labor market risks with persistent inflation while staying data dependent. Figure 7: Silver Lining in the Current Trade Climate On April 2, U.S. President Donald Trump declared “Liberation Day” as he announced sweeping tariffs. In August, a 50% tariff was imposed on Brazilian goods (an additional 40% on top of the existing 10%). Despite the apparent threat, Brazil’s trade balance remains in surplus, with exports continuing to grow. Since only 12% of its exports went to the U.S. in 2024, Brazil appears to be relatively insulated from the worst effects. Recent diplomatic signals between Trump and President Lula have been positive,, while shifting global trade flows present structural opportunities for Brazil. As countries diversify away from the U.S., Brazil has solidified its standing as a key supplier to China and is well-positioned to deepen regional integration and potentially accelerate trade agreements with partners like the European Union. Putting the Pieces Together While the market has been focusing on AI-tech, cryptocurrency and precious metals, the high real interest rates, resilient domestic demand, and a shifting trade landscape have brought renewed attention to the BRL. While inflation remains elevated, Brazil’s tight monetary stance makes the currency attractive from a carry perspective, particularly against currencies from easing central banks. At the same time, evolving trade relationships could support structural demand for BRL as exports diversify and deepen. With these forces in play, the BRL stands at the centre of emerging-market FX strategies. B3 FX Market Unlike most major currencies, BRL price discovery occurs primarily in B3’s futures market, not the spot market. B3’s dollar futures consistently see some of the highest FX volumes globally, making it the key venue for hedging and speculation. For Asian participants, however, time zone differences and operational hurdles can limit direct access. Introducing the BRLUSD Futures on SGX To address Asian trading frictions, SGX, in collaboration with B3, has launched the BRLUSD futures contract, giving global traders direct access to BRL exposure during Asian market hours. This listing marks an important milestone, complementing B3’s onshore market and extending the BRL liquidity cycle well beyond Latin American and U.S. sessions. Key advantages of the SGX BRLUSD futures contract: Asia-hour liquidity: Trade BRLUSD in real time as global macro headlines break overnight. B3’s trading hours overlap with SGX’s night session, further enhancing offshore liquidity. Hedging flexibility: Particularly useful for global portfolio managers who need to hedge BRL exposure while settling in USD. Operational simplicity for clients that are already SGX clients. Cost efficiency comparing to OTC market: Competitive clearing fees and typically tighter bid–ask spreads make execution more efficient. Cross-margining benefits: Margin offsets are available for inter-commodity spreads, allowing traders to pair BRL with other SGX currency or commodity futures to optimize capital usage. Putting into Practice Figure 8: Carry Trade Strategy with BRLUSD With the Selic rate expected to remain elevated through at least Q1 2026, the wide rate differential between Brazil and major developed markets continues to create opportunities for carry strategies. Fundamentally, the BRL tends to appreciate in a carry environment as demand for BRL-denominated assets rises; driven by investors seeking to capture Brazil’s high interest rates. Moreover, with an already constructive view on the BRL, a carry trade strategy offers a twofold benefit: currency appreciation alongside the positive carry derived from Brazil’s elevated yield advantage. This backdrop supports a long position on BRL. Since the futures contract listed on SGX is quoted BRLUSD, to express this view, we could directly take a long position in the BRLUSD futures contract (BRLX5) at the current price level of 0.1820. We would set the stop loss at the lower support level of the descending triangle at 0.1790, a hypothetical maximum loss of 0.1820 – 0.1790 = 0.0030 points. While a classic carry trade can simply involve holding the position to benefit from the interest rate differential over time without a predefined take-profit, in this example we set a target at the post-COVID multi-year resistance of 0.2130, for a hypothetical gain of 0.2130 – 0.1820 points. Furthermore, pairing BRL against low-yielding currencies such as JPY allows traders to capture attractive interest rate differentials while leveraging the inter-commodity margin offsets to enhance capital efficiency. Beyond carry opportunities, portfolio managers in Asia can also use the contract to hedge large BRL exposures, taking advantage of the liquidity outside B3 hours. Conclusion With monetary policy set to remain tight, inflation gradually converging, and Brazil carving out a stronger role in global trade, the BRL stands at the intersection of cyclical carry opportunities and structural shifts in capital flows. Whether expressed through directional longs or cross-currency strategies, the BRL offers traders a differentiated play in a market searching for new narratives beyond tech and tariffs.
ECONOMICS:BRINTR
by inspirante
NZD/USD: A Trap for Early Buyers? Retail 90% Long1️⃣ Technical Context NZD/USD is trading around 0.5630, within a descending channel that started in mid-July. After testing the lower boundary of the channel and the demand zone between 0.5570–0.5620, price reacted with a mild technical bounce — yet without any structural reversal confirmation. The daily RSI shows a bullish divergence and remains above 30, signaling a possible short-term rebound toward 0.5750–0.5800 before a potential continuation lower. Key Levels Resistance: 0.5750 / 0.5820 (upper channel + prior supply) Support: 0.5570 / 0.5500 (demand + channel bottom) Technical Bias: bearish while below 0.5820, but short-term corrective potential toward the upper channel remains. 2️⃣ COT Data (latest available report) NZD Futures (CME): Non-commercial: Long +3,044 | Short +6,160 → rising net short exposure. Commercial: Long +2,869 | Short -286 → commercials remain hedged, confirming structural weakness in NZD. USD Index: Non-commercials remain net short but are reducing exposure, signaling gradual USD strength. → Interpretation: COT data confirms a pro-USD, bearish bias on NZD, consistent with the broader technical trend. 3️⃣ Seasonality Historically, November is slightly positive for NZD/USD, especially in shorter time frames (5–2 years). 20 years: -0.001 10 years: -0.003 5 years: +0.004 2 years: +0.005 → Suggesting a short-term recovery phase in early November, followed by renewed weakness later in the month. 4️⃣ Retail Sentiment Long: 90% Short: 10% Average long price: 0.5766 → The overwhelming long positioning suggests many retail traders are trying to catch a bottom, which raises the risk of further downside pressure in the short term (potential liquidity sweep below 0.56). 5️⃣ Trading Outlook Overall Bias: bearish with a short-term corrective potential. Main Scenario: → Pullback toward 0.5750–0.5800 (upper supply zone), then likely continuation lower toward 0.5550–0.5500. Alternative Scenario: → A daily close above 0.5820 would invalidate the bearish setup and open room toward 0.5950. Confluences: ✅ RSI bullish divergence ✅ Short-term positive seasonality ⚠️ Retail extremely long ⚠️ COT bearish for NZD
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
14
GBP/JPY – Bearish Continuation Setup | Possible Pullback to 2031️⃣ Technical Context On the daily chart, GBP/JPY is trading around 201.12, moving inside a descending channel that began in mid-October. Price action has recently tested the lower boundary of the channel and the 200.00–200.70 demand zone, showing a short-term bullish reaction but no confirmed structural reversal yet. The RSI daily near 30 suggests a potential short-term rebound but no confirmed bullish reversal. Key Levels Resistance: 203.50 / 204.50 (upper channel + previous supply) Support: 200.00 / 199.00 (demand + psychological level) Technical Bias: Bearish below 203.50; only a daily close above 204.00 would invalidate the bearish setup. 2️⃣ COT Data (stable due to shutdown) Latest available report: JPY: Net long positions increased by +14,727 among non-commercials, while commercials remain heavily short (hedging). This indicates a structural strengthening of the Yen. GBP: Net short positions remain stable (-3,392), with a slight increase in non-commercial longs (+3,704) but not enough to shift sentiment. → Interpretation: The COT context confirms a pro-JPY bias and weak GBP outlook, maintaining a bearish fundamental bias for GBP/JPY. 3️⃣ Seasonality November seasonality shows a negative pattern for GBP/JPY, especially on the 10–20 year horizon. 20-year avg: -0.69% 10-year avg: -1.31% Only the 2-year cycle shows a mild positive move (+0.88%), suggesting that mid-term seasonality supports bearish pressure until mid-November, followed by a potential technical rebound later in the month. 4️⃣ Retail Sentiment Short: 64% Long: 36% Most retail traders are short, with an average short entry around 195.98, well below the current market price at 201. → This means the majority are still in profit, which increases the likelihood of a short-term bullish squeeze before the next downward move resumes. ✅ COT favors JPY strength ✅ Seasonality remains negative for GBP/JPY ✅ Technical structure confirms lower highs ⚠️ Retail positioning suggests possible short-term fakeout to the upside GBP/JPY remains in a bearish continuation context, consistent with Yen strength and negative seasonality. However, a technical pullback toward 203.00–203.50 is likely before a renewed bearish impulse targeting the 198.50 area.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
3
GBP/USD — The Trap Above 1.32 Before the Real Drop BeginsGBP/USD continues its bearish momentum after rejecting the major supply zone around 1.3450–1.3600. From a structural perspective, price has formed a clear series of lower highs and lower lows, confirming the bearish continuation setup. 📉 Macro Context: COT data (delayed due to the U.S. government shutdown) still shows a fragile Pound: non-commercial traders are almost balanced but with a slight reduction in shorts, while commercials remain heavily short. Meanwhile, the Dollar Index COT reveals a growing long positioning — a clear sign of renewed USD strength. Sentiment: 82% of retail traders are long on GBP/USD → a strong contrarian signal. Seasonality: November is historically weak for GBP/USD, showing a negative tendency in 10- and 15-year averages. 🔎 Technical Setup: After a failed attempt to reclaim the 1.33–1.34 range, the pair dropped aggressively. A short retracement toward 1.3150–1.3200 could serve as a liquidity grab before further downside continuation. As long as price remains below 1.3270, the bearish bias remains intact. 🎯 Key Levels: Resistance: 1.3150 – 1.3200 Support: 1.3000, 1.2850, then 1.2750 Invalidation: Daily close above 1.3270 🧩 Bias: Bearish continuation
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
9
Gold pauses below resistance — correction before next leg higherGold’s recent rally above 4,300 USD per ounce has stalled as U.S. yields remain elevated and the dollar sustains moderate strength. The slowdown in Core PCE (2.6%) and Q3 GDP (2.2%) revived expectations for a Fed rate cut in early 2026, yet Powell’s message of caution kept the greenback supported. Meanwhile, real rates remain positive, limiting gold’s upside momentum in the short term. On the geopolitical front, safe-haven flows have softened after last week’s easing in Middle East tensions, prompting some profit-taking from speculative longs. However, persistent macro uncertainty and expectations of a gradual Fed pivot maintain gold’s medium-term bullish foundation. COT (Commitment of Traders) The COT reports remain frozen due to the ongoing U.S. government shutdown. The latest available data (Sept 23) showed: • Non-commercial longs: 332,808 (+6,030) • Non-commercial shorts: 66,059 (+5,691) This reflected an accumulation phase with a moderate increase in both sides, but a clear net-long bias from institutional players. ⚠️ Since the data is outdated by over a month, institutional positioning may have shifted following the recent volatility — interpret with caution. Retail Sentiment 📊 58% long / 42% short → contrarian bearish bias Retail traders remain moderately long on gold, suggesting room for a short-term pullback before any renewed institutional accumulation phase. Seasonality Historically, November tends to show a slightly negative seasonal bias for gold: •Average change: between –0.4% and –7.5% depending on sample length. •The pattern often shows a mid-month dip followed by strength into December. 📆 Seasonal view: short-term correction likely in early November before a year-end rally resumes. Technical Outlook After a sharp rally in October, XAU/USD has entered a consolidation/distribution phase just below the 4,250–4,300 resistance area. Scenario principale: A short-term continuation lower toward 3,950–3,900 remains likely as price retests the daily demand zone. From there, buyers could re-enter in line with the seasonal recovery expected later in November. Invalidation: Daily close below 3,850 would invalidate the bullish medium-term structure. Trading Bias •Short-term: Bearish → correction toward 3,950–3,900 •Medium-term: Neutral → awaiting confirmation of support reaction •Long-term: Bullish → supported by macro uncertainty and dovish Fed outlook into 2026 ✅ Final View: Gold is likely to correct further toward 3,950–3,900 before resuming its broader uptrend into December. Momentum is cooling, but the long-term bullish narrative remains intact as Fed easing expectations build.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by EdgeTradingJourney
2
USDJPY | Liquidity Sweep Before Year-End RallyUSD/JPY remains structurally bullish within a broad ascending channel that has defined price action since mid-2024. Despite recent pullbacks, momentum remains positive while price trades above the 151.50–152.00 structural support, aligning with the broader macro bias of USD strength and JPY weakness. 1️⃣ Seasonal Bias Historical data from Market Bulls shows that November tends to favor USD/JPY upside, with an average gain between +0.8% and +1.2% across the 10- to 20-year datasets. This month’s seasonal strength often follows October consolidations, suggesting continuation potential toward year-end highs. 2️⃣ COT Positioning (Commitment of Traders) USD Index: Non-commercials increased net longs by +1,541, confirming a persistent bullish bias on the USD side. JPY Futures: Non-commercial traders added a significant +14,727 long positions, but commercial hedging remains heavily long, indicating that institutional demand is more protective than speculative. The divergence implies temporary JPY strength, but the overall positioning still favors USD dominance in the medium term. 3️⃣ Sentiment Data Retail traders remain 60% short vs 40% long on USD/JPY, providing a contrarian bullish signal. Historically, retail positioning against trend continuation adds conviction to a potential bullish extension. 4️⃣ Technical Structure (Daily Chart) Price is consolidating near 153.40, just below the upper boundary of the ascending channel. A short-term pullback toward 152.00–151.50 could act as the liquidity grab zone before continuation. Support Zone: 152.00 → 151.50 Key Demand Area: 150.50 (aligned with prior daily gap and mid-channel support) Resistance Zone: 155.50 → 156.00 (upper trendline projection) RSI: Currently neutral (~52), suggesting there’s still room for upside momentum before reaching overbought conditions. The market may engineer liquidity below 152 before a bullish reaction targeting 155.50 and potentially the 156.80 macro extension zone by mid-November. 5️⃣ Confluence Summary ✅ Seasonality: Bullish ✅ COT: USD stronger bias vs JPY ✅ Retail Sentiment: Contrarian bullish ✅ Structure: Bullish continuation pattern within channel ⚠️ Short-term Risk: Liquidity sweep below 152
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
ETH Losing Range Midpoint? Similarly to Bitcoin, Ethereum finds itself around the midpoint of the high time frame range, only ETH has already lost the level and has rejected when retesting. Such a lack of strength is concerning for the project as well as the broader altcoin market. So there are a few actionable moves I'm looking out for: Bullish scenario is we maybe chop for a while around/under the midpoint then with high volume the midpoint gets flipped with conviction. That would open the door for the top half of the range to be accessible again. I think this scenario relies on the US Government shutdown coming to an end and QT also ending. Right now there just isn't the liquidity needed to prop up prices hence the slow bleed. Bearish scenario is a simple continuation of the local bearish trend where 0.25 ($2,800) is the target. This area signaled the break in structure responsible for the previous rally and so I believe it will provide support but is also the target for the bears to reach.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSD
by ProR35
Markets Looking SOFT at highs - Correction Underway (Key Levels)October 10th candle is a very important low for all US Markets -S&P -Nasdaq -Dow -Russell The rally from that Oct 10 candle low (Friday) was met with aggressive support but was only showing rallies in Mag 7 and AI related plays Earnings for the most part are coming in meeting or exceeding expectations, but price action is certainly looking soft with the market making lower highs and lower lows for now We have plenty of technical support, but given the longest US Government Shutdown in history with dot.com like valuations (there is bubble and non-bubble evidence), sentiment and elevated volatility are taking their toll and dragging the markets lower I've closed a lot of open positions and de-risked the portfolio pretty severely this week with the intention of finding ways to participate in a cautiously bullish environment. As I mention in the video, markets tend to V bottom, but round out the tops so the longer we stall at these highs and the more "rounded" look we have near these highs, the more fragile and support can be if we eventually see a break lower - TBD Day to day, we continue to do good work carving out short-term winners and properly position for what is next - good or bad Thanks for watching. See you in the live markets -Chris
SP:SPX
by ChrisPulver