Short trade reaches a support level. A good point to go for a BUY. However, U.S. Fed Chair Powell Speaks tonight. Keep an eye on it. S1: 1868 S2: 1846 S3: 1825 R1: 1878 R2: 1917 R3: 2000
Really tricky market to make sense of right now because of how last weeks data (stronger job market - confirmed by NFP) was disregarded. This could mean: 1. Either they were beginning to lay a trap (current moves will reverse) 2. The market genuinely doesn't care because it expects claims to eventually pick up with a vengeance Here's what I think: CPI has...
The Australian dollar is in negative territory on Tuesday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6898, down 0.21%. This follows a two-day rally in AUD/USD climbed over 2%. It could be a busy week for the Australian dollar, with Australia releasing CPI on Wednesday, followed by the US on Thursday. Australian headline inflation dropped to 6.9% in...
Gold price consolidates near a multi-month high on Tuesday as investors take a breather ahead of Fed Powell's speech. A better market mood and dovish Fed bets have favored the recent gold rally. At the time of writing, the spot price XAU/USD is trading at the $1,875 area, a modest 0.2% above its opening price, after touching its highest level in eight months at...
Markets are not moving much. They slowed down after some dollar weakness over the last two trading days. We see US stocks coming down from resistance ahead of Powell today, so it appears that investors are waiting on more details before they may position themselves for a breakout. Will Powell be hawkish or more neutral with comments is the question. I think he may...
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Gold is expected to continue bullish trend on London session open due to bad PMI data. Bad PMI data is indicating reduced demand and reduced manufacturing outcome. Investors take it as an economical indicator leading to recessionary period. I am expecting the trend to continue until Powell speaks on Wednesday and give us direction where the monetary policy will...
My previous analysis based on the historic halving cycles predicted a macro low on the week of Nov 21st 22. It would appear that this played out but not totally in alignment with price prediction. Let's be clear, the global macro economic landscape is not looking rosy with the FED still Hawkishly raising rates, massive tech stocks haemorrhaging up to 70%, huge...
Since mid-December many psychological parameters started to make me think that we were going to have a rise in BTC for the first quarter of 2023. Many people are waiting for lows, 14, 12, 9k. Many people are predicting that the bottom of the market will come in the first quarter of 2023. The right way of thinking is now to be bearish, otherwise you don't...
The graph shows the fall in wage income relative to the rise in prices. We see a rapid decline in the income of citizens. Perhaps this is the effect of the January holidays, because. salaries haven’t yet arrived at the bank and therefore the 3rd week of January is the most depressing. This trend was observed in the period 1979-1981, and it was the bottom of...
Yesterday, the FOMC confirmed the backing of higher interest rates for longer. The market reacted negatively signaling negative sentiment on rate expectations for the following quarters. Federal Reserve official, Neel Kashkari, who often has the most dovish views on market anticipation stated that inflation may have peaked but sees interest rates rising higher for...
This is more about momentum than exact numbers over the next 2 days. Tomorrow, the jobless claims and Job Cuts reports come out at 8:30am. Typically this doesn't matter but in the current economic situation we should be seeing some volatility early before market open. I am expecting a slightly positive report because they have been becoming more positive,...
The EUR/USD pair managed to maintain altitude after economic data from the EU and the U.S. and the release of the hawkish FOMC minutes from the last December meeting. At the time of writing, the EUR/USD pair is trading at the 1.0605 area, 0.56% above its opening price, while the dollar, measured by the DXY index, trades at 104.26, posting a 0.41% daily loss. The...
That's all we have, voting members, will participate, on the page. Closed Board Meeting on January 14, 2022 Government in the Sunshine Meeting Notice Notice of a Meeting under Expedited Procedures On Friday, January 14, 2022 at 10:30 a.m., a meeting of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System was held under expedited procedures, as set forth in...
CME: E-Mini Select Sector Futures ( CME_MINI:XAZ1! , CME:SOX1! , CME_MINI:BIO1! , CME_MINI:XAV1! , CME_MINI:XAB1! , CME_MINI:XAK1! , CME_MINI:XAI1! ) According to Chinese Zodiac, tigers are vigorous, daring, competitive and unpredictable. 2022, the Year of Tiger, was symbolized by these bursts of power: • First war in Europe after World War II...
The truth is that I don't know if it's over or not. It certainly feels like the USDJPY pair is going a lot lower, given that the Fed is very close to pausing and cutting rates in 2023. Deflation has always benefited the Yen, which might be the case again. The BoJ took the best stance of all central banks, as they held rates low and provided liquidity when the...
In 2022 we witnessed the fastest tightening cycle ever made by the FED. As I have covered before in the beginning of 2022 - the speed of the tightening (no so much the aboslute value) are key in how the general market indexes are going to act. The faster the speed the more pressure the market will see while trying to make a move higher - hence the more bearish the...
✅2022 was a difficult year but it has almost ended, so it is natural for us to ask what has 2023 in stock for us! The answer lays in the structure that we both love and hate and it's the FED. Yes, the markets are now governed not by fundamentals and value but by the decision of a bunch of people in suits at the FED. However, we are traders and our job is not to...