using CPI & CLAIMS data as TRADE CONFLUENCE!
Really tricky market to make sense of right now because of how last weeks data (stronger job market - confirmed by NFP) was disregarded. This could mean:
1. Either they were beginning to lay a trap (current moves will reverse)
2. The market genuinely doesn't care because it expects claims to eventually pick up with a vengeance
Here's what I think:
CPI has been cooling due to lower Oil price and higher interest rates (housing is a big component of CPI). Lower CPI shouldn't be a shock to anyone and is likely already priced in. For this reason, I think what matters most right now is what the Fed is focused on: SERVICES (wage) inflation and this is why I believe the main focus tomorrow is likely to be the services component of CPI and the CLAIMS data.
I think tomorrow's news is already priced in and we're likely to see a reversal in XAU.
1. Either they were beginning to lay a trap (current moves will reverse)
2. The market genuinely doesn't care because it expects claims to eventually pick up with a vengeance
Here's what I think:
CPI has been cooling due to lower Oil price and higher interest rates (housing is a big component of CPI). Lower CPI shouldn't be a shock to anyone and is likely already priced in. For this reason, I think what matters most right now is what the Fed is focused on: SERVICES (wage) inflation and this is why I believe the main focus tomorrow is likely to be the services component of CPI and the CLAIMS data.
I think tomorrow's news is already priced in and we're likely to see a reversal in XAU.