September 2008 - The Fed started printing fiat in overdrive soon before the bank bailout of early 2009. Bitcoin's first block was also mined at the news of this in January 3-9th 2009. However monetary base has been in decline, retracing. What does this mean for the derivatives market and the Repos?
Watch closely the next few weeks to see a breakout or breakdown after hitting the cross. A huge move in either direction will signal a short term investment opportunity in either direction. Federal Reserve Policy will be key to the direction the markets take. Markets will most likely stay within the trend lines and bounce back marking selling points and buying...
Gold is a safe haven at this time. A rate cut is priced in of US Fed after worse than expected ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI.
It's a pretty nice set up as far as #Ethereum #ETH is concerned. While there is a conspicuous bear bar of Sep 24, bulls are at a pole position and will likely bounce back. As such, there is an opportunity for buyers to buy the dips and place tight stop-loss orders just below $150-$160 support zone. Remember, #ETH is trading within a bullish breakout pattern...
Outlined in the chart is gold's reaction to 3 fed dovish fed announcements 1. A end of "autopilot" rate hikes 2. A quarter point rate cut 3. A second quarter point cut Each of these decisions lead gold higher in the medium term. In the very short term, it has formed the same pattern. An initial dump in the price of gold, followed by a small cupping shape and...
Gold is defenitely in a bull run but we're coming in a rejection place where there can be a up and down side between 1479 and around 1459 per ounce. I can see that trade war tensions isn't yet over and rise up gold to a new high. The American Fed is now pomping money and Trump send some monetary troops to Saudia. It's possible that American Fed could buy big...
In terms of sentiment & fundamental analysis, last week and this coming week I have established a bias**. The bias is that I am moderately bearish on EURUSD (weak bearish) ECB is in quantitative easing mode whilst the Fed had done a hawkish interest rate cut. **There will be a week when I do not have a fundamental/sentiment bias due to my limited knowledge on...
With the recent Fed rate cuts this week, it is clear this pair is going up. I will add short term confluence by identifying an inverse head and shoulders setup on the short term timeframes. This is a powerful and reliable long term pattern that when gets broken, should project price to its next highs around 1.1120.
The 2 year yield is dropping fast and the FED is forced to follow. We have a 100% probability of a September rate cut. $TLT $IEF $SPY $GLD $SLV $GDX $QQQ $IAU
Federal Reserve Rates Cut to 2% (0.25% cut) coming back into the system. $75 billion on the repo announced. Lambos.
A break below 156-ish is bearish in my opinion, and increases the likelihood that IWM will retest the bottom of its descending channel. In addition to that, the RSI is showing overbought conditions. If it breaks below the 156-ish level, I will short it via puts and look for a risk/reward somewhere in that area I noted. Fundamentally, it all hinges on the Fed...
Just for fun and something to watch. Recessions in Grey
I suspect we'll see gold stay in roughly in this range (1490-1520) and above the green trend line until the Fed announces what it's doing with interest rates Tuesday or Wednesday next week. The market has already priced in a .25% rate cut, with the expectation of one more rate cut later this year. Anything short of those expectations will be bearish for gold. For...
My last publish from yesterday analyzed a bull flag on the 1 hour chart - it broke out last night. This chart is the 4 hour, but as you can see, that long-term trend line dating back to December is creating issues for it rising any higher. I think this morning's non-farm payroll and then Powell's speech will determine if ES and SPY have enough gas in the tank to...
Looking at total real (inflation adjusted) productivity in the US versus hourly wages in the US. This is data compiled by the FRED, and shows the departure consistent wage growth versus overall productivity. Pretty staggering.
FED INTEREST RATES( FRED ) - Extension(PART 2) to the US (SPX) Sectors Technical Analysis Series - 18th of August 2019 (9-10 Minute Read) Everyone complains about the FED rates. That's our only job, it seems . Judging by his tweets, no one has been more eager to express their dissatisfaction, than Pres. Trump (bit' of sarcasm) . This is Part 2 - of an ...
$CNY is higher than the initial breakout which caused mass panic among the macro tourists on TV. Instead all eyes are on the hapless Fed Chair who shall be known as the man who crashed equities markets. Equity markets will get spooked regardless whatever Powell decide to do. A hold means money's too tight, a full blown rate cut program means an acknowledgment...