WARNING - This is a follow up of previous work. I have stopped "around the clock continuous updates and notes" that detail hour to hour price action. This is all you get until the next one. As a precaution, the first rule of trading is don't lose money. As a reminder, the second rule of trading is don't forget first rule. As usual, this is meant to supplement -...
HEADER - From my phone, so no time to add anything. Refer to directions from #3-3 as to what to how to use this. FOR REFERENCE - REPLAY each of #3, 3-1, 3-2, and 3-3 all links below here. You will understand what to do next until I get home and post #3-5. SUMMARY - This continues from last notes in comments section of #3-3. NOTES - Here's what I can give...
WARNING - This is a follow up of previous work. I have stopped "around the clock continuous updates and notes" that details hour to hour price action. This is all you get until next one. As a precaution, first rule of trading is don't lose money. As a reminder, second rule of trading is don't forget first rule. As usual, this is meant to supplement not replace...
WARNING - This is a follow up of previous work. I have stopped "around the clock continuous updates" with expanded notes and details. This is all you get until next one. As a precaution, first rule of trading is don't lose money. As a reminder, second rule of trading is don't forget first rule. As usual, this is meant to supplement not replace your trading...
WARNING - I have stopped doing daily "continuous updates", notes, details, etc... This is all you get. If price move against plan, scrap plan and trade defensively. HEADER - This is the weekly generic followup previous post, so it's the generic picture one week out. Generic here means general direction, I do not detail the moves as I have done in the...
HEADER - I started my forecast series, "The Most Accurate Price Forecast In The World", last week and gave it that name for a couple of reasons. For starters, this strategically annoys people enough for them to give it a second look. For ex: "Who this guy think he is? Let me take a look first before I dump this troll." After my years in development hell, the...
HEADER - This is a late follow up to #2-3. SUMMARY - This is one hard, and also annoying. Hard because there's NO rhyme or reason here, it is just an attempt to make sense of a very irregular set of regressIons. Annoying because there's not a lot of value here. So I am not trying my best to make sense of it. DETAILS - Of everything I've done since 9/12,...
HEADER - Post #2-2 showed bulls want to fight to the end. That end looks like this right now. SUMMARY - If bulls break out here, they want all the way up. Fail, and bears make them pay. DETAILS - Please see previous posts for details. WILL ADD NOTES - In comments section when I have time.
HEADER - This is continuation for #2-1. MAJOR SHORT TERM INFLECTION - As I warned in closing out #2-1 at 1984.xx BEFORE the spike to 1979.x, this thing is looking bearish AF. I will add more in edits. Need to get this up ASAP. THE BEARISH FACTS FIRST - I said this in closing out #2-1 linked below: 1) as long as price is under first red line, bears are the...
HEADER - This is the updated extrapolations to post #2. SUMMARY - We're heading up, it looks like 2010 tomorrow. The blue hi-light is our base case, the light blue is from #2, it is there for comparison only. The light orange is the manipulated curve in this case. I just don't see it happening but put it in for defensive purposes. DETAILS - See post #2 for...
HEADER - This continues from #1 and #1B. SUMMARY - We are at major inflection for today, week, month and several years again. DETAILS - See posts #1B, #1, and the thesis page. Live note forecasts have hit perfect-perfect for weeks. Detailed forecasts have been almost perfect since 9/12. I will include the links here. RIGHT NOW - Please read #1B notes...
It's Friday ... the 13th. Here's what's shakin' in exchange-traded fund premium selling ... . Top 5 Options Liquid ETF's Ranked by 30-Day IV: TQQQ 22.9 IVR/60.4 IV GDXJ 23.6/38.9 USO 46.4/38.8 GDX 26.0/33.6 FXI 14.8/31.4 Ideally, you want to have IVR at >50 and IV at >35% in ETF premium-selling land, but you can't have everything in this market ... . Broad...
US Bonds are currently dumping once more as GDXJ and Gold Bearishly Diverges at resistance after printing a 3-Line Strike. If this goes as I would expect, then we will see GDXJ come down to recover the entire range.
It's Friday, and the last trading day of September ... . Here's what's at the top of my IV screener in the exchange-traded fund space: TQQQ, IVR/IV 23.3/64.2% GDXJ, 22.7/36.4% (2.52% yield) FXI, 12.5/33.4% (2.26% yield) EWZ, 11.1/31.9% (10.9% yield) GDX, 26.0/31.5% (2.23% yield) You'll notice that everything is still pretty much in the lower one-quarter of the...
Given USD strength and the sustained pressure of ever-increasing US interest rates, gold has been taking it on the chin. However, we’re getting into buy levels/demand where it may be poised for a near-term recovery. Keep tabs on gold (spot, futures, GLD), but if you see signs of accumulation/trend reversal (use small timeframe charts), consider climbing aboard....
It's Friday and a Triple Witching to boot! Well, IV isn't great here pretty much across the board for us premium sellers. Nevertheless, if you must play (and some of us gotta), here's what's shakin' ... . Broad Market QQQ, .8 IVR, 17.8% 30-day IV, with the shortest duration in which the <16 delta is paying greater than 1% of the strike price: December...
It's Fryyyydayyyy ... (which is when I tend to do all my "stuff"). Well, unless you've been hiding under a rock (no judgment here), you'll know that premium-selling in broad market isn't very good here, with IWM IVR/IV at 12.3/19.7%, QQQ at 9.1/20.1%, and SPY at 6.8/14.4%. That sub-25 IVR is telling you that broad market IV is in the bottom quarter of its...
... for a .72/contract credit. Comments: One of the higher IV underlyings in my options liquid ETF screener at 34.4%. Going a little more aggressive here, selling the 25 delta strike. Will generally look to take profit at 50% max and/or (a) roll down and out for a credit if tested; or (b) take assignment of shares and sell call against.