When US 2Y passes over 10Y, that might sign something is wrong. Not calling recession however it says something might be wrong. Take attention while FED continues to US dollar burning and interest rate hiking.
If it walks like a duck and it quacks like a duck ... But wait for it! In reality the Inflation-Deflation pendulum is already past mid-swing, towards the later (by most meaningful measures). Incidentally, most institutions and central banks are piled in at the short end of the curve and one could sell them anything going out past 3 years, for anything. That, in...
30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Monthly Well I guess I'm glad my mother-in-law's basement isn't a total dungeon.. What's sunlight? I'm familiar with grass because that's eye level when I'm looking out our window. Big brother JP, the head of the Fed, says rates aren't going anywhere any time soon, and we've all heard the fear mongering of 8% mortgages coming. Why...
TLDR: I think the price increase we are seeing is not inflation, the economy is going from bad to worse and the FED's actions don't make any sense. At the peak of the great inflation of the 70s in USA while both long and short term interest rates were going up together with inflation, so was the aggregate credit. In fact loans to businesses were growing...
The RBNZ announced its decision to keep interest rates on hold at 5.50%, keeping with market expectation. In the accompanying statement, the RBNZ indicated that rates could remain restrictive in the long term as inflation rate continues to be "too high". This has also led to an increased likelihood for another rate hike to come from the RBNZ. Following the...
The DXY after catching a rally off a 4-Hour Bullish Butterfly, has reached my price target of $103, and if it gets above that zone, then I think the DXY will have plenty of room to make multi-decade highs due to The High Interest Rates, Tightening Credit Conditions, and The Deflation that is now being priced into the US Bond Market. If things go as expected...
Dear Ziilllaatraders, We can see daily candels being sold showing strong selling pressure. This due to latest inflation numbers, showing an increase. Here is Why: When inflation rises, it signifies that the general price level of goods and services in an economy is increasing. This can lead to concerns about the erosion of purchasing power, as consumers and...
Edited the graph from Apollo a bit. Red arrow is when most treasury #yields were hitting new highs. Blue arrow is current time. Chart is 2Yr #Bonds. TVC:TNX was putting in a lower low at the Red arrow BUT it is higher then before at the moment, Blue arrow. Graph shows how #bankruptcy filings began increasing late last year, slowed during #interestrates...
The technical weekly uptrend that yields have formed is rather astonishing. The sheer power of this move suggests likely more upside yields. Some basic measured moves suggest a potential whopping 5.7% on the 20 year. Imagine TLT long bond traders! Nothing is probable but it makes you wonder if inflation is becoming more entrenched since the bond market is very...
Christine Lagarde's remarks about an open-minded ECB, coupled with a robust labor market and persistently high inflation in the eurozone, continue to provide the ECB with reasons to lean towards hiking. While headline inflation may be trending downwards, core inflation remains steadfast in the eurozone. Following the meeting on July 27, the ECB raised interest...
Money that has been parked at the Fed's Reverse Repo Facility due to the attractively high interest rates the Fed has set for money parked there has been on a steady decline since late 2022, and recently, this year we confirmed a breakdown of a Bearish Dragon, which led to a BAMM move down to complete a Harmonic M-shape. This then represented an influx of...
Forecast on the S&P500 prices for the next 3 years. This forecast is based on the 2 historical crashes of the S&P500 (2000 / 2008), based on the evolution of US Interest rates. This is forecast is shouldn't be considerate as financial advice.
Yesterday, the FED raised rates again by 0.25%. The ECB is due to announce today whether it will do the same by 0.25% Today's news is at 15:15 Bulgarian time, and the press conference 30 minutes later. EURUSD looks like it has already bottomed out and is starting the next uptrend. We are watching for a higher bottom and confirmation of the upward movement.
What you would learn in university: An interest rate hike increases demand, which would lead to higher prices. What you actually see in the markets: The impact on price is not only dependent on the interest rate decision but also the message and sentiment during the press conference, priced in scenarios, future market expectations, economic projections, current...
Gold price is higher above $1970 during early New York trading session ahead of the Fed. Fed Powell’s speech will be crucial for gold buyers as 0.25% rate hike priced in. XAUUSD tested 1950 support and bounced yesterday which opened the path to $1970. However, a supply zone from May, around $1983 - 1987, appears a tough nut to crack for the XAUUSD bulls. We will...
Interest rates will be announced by the FED today. The news is at 21:00 Bulgarian time, and the press conference 30 minutes later. The only thing certain before the news is that there will be big fluctuations. Therefore, it is advisable to reduce the risk on active positions and not to hurry with new entries. The main option where we will look for trades is on...
Last week I made an analysis on BTC's bearish divergence on the 3-day chart. Seeing the bearish price action we got recently, it seems that this bearish divergence is playing out well. In my eyes, it's very likely that BTC will go down from here onwards. Next target is the dotted purple support line. Seeing there's another FOMC interest announcement tomorrow,...
Over the last year, there have been increasing concerns about threats to the US and global economies, mainly due to all the rate hikes from the Fed and other central banks. However, these fears have definitely not played out, as consumer spending and business hiring have shown surprising durability in the US, despite rate hikes and inflation. Several factors...