Close candle of 27 April = 4180
Expected opening price for today = 4210(at least based on ES movement and volume)
TOP Side = 4280 - 4300 according to Implied Volatility and ATR
BOT Side = 4120 - 4100 according to Implied Volatility and ATR
Expected movement at 28April 00h between 1.5 - 2.5% movement during the day
In terms of fundamentals that can affect...
Based on the current market view, we have been in a sidemarket channel for the last week.
We can see that the channel was made from 41.000 as a top and 39000 as a bottom.
By using these values and taking a look at the same time on the ATR and implied volatility, we can with certain degree estimate the next movement of this asset.
This is a 1:2 Risk/reward ratio...
Not time to reload on the Gamma Slamma, too many Underlying
Equities must be sold, not just yet, but soon.
Monday's are usually a Solid Day to mess with the VIX.
17.40 is the level to watch as the "Operators/EGG Peeps" need
more Protection.
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Emotionally Pregnant
JNJ seems to have broke out of this rising wedge pattern, if it holds and surpasses the fib level at 158, 161 can come. Howver, on the flipside, if a reversal comes It would be best to take long monthly puts as IV is relatively low, and hold until mean reversion comes.
TSLA has been on a rampage lately, and it is safe to say that this is a highly volatile stock. The ER is today (Wed, Jul 22) and will be announced AH. Given the hinderances imposed on almost all Americans during the Coronavirus pandemic, despite the major run-up TSLA has had, my personal opinion is that EPS will miss expectations. My guess is that the insane bull...
The chart posted is that of the hourly SP 500 the drop to a perfect low in time spirals and price based on long term FIB 1974 LOW TO PEAK .382 pullback and near perfect 50 2009 to peak FYI NYSE WAS PERFECT. has now rallied back to a three wave rally back to a 50 % and was off the spiral low dates 3/21/23 and 4/ 2 spiral in time . We now have two views ...
SellToOpen Apr Call spread 250/260 Limit 5.8;
STO Apt Put 210 market 6.80 credit;
Total credit 12.6;
1. If SPY will stay above 260, I will win 12.6-10=2.6
2. If SPY stay Between 210 - 250, I will win 12.6;
3. Below 198.4, I will lose money;
This is a mush better price than previous plan. I am willing to be assigned.
If SPY price keep going down, there will be...
While broad market implied volatility has basically been absent (we had one VIX pop to ~20 on 9/12, after which it has receded dramatically), it has remained in the same place as it has for the past several weeks -- in gold, mining, and oil and gas, with a smattering of high IV in individual biotech issues.
Here are the top high IV stock and ETF options as of...
50 Delta ATM Volatilities:
USDJPY -
- $Yen has an ATM implied volatility curve of 55.95%mrkt 24.08%1wk 18.31%2wk 14.12%1m
- Obviously we are aggressively steeper in the front end, with BOJ tomorrow and JPY MOF Fiscal Package details coming next week providing heightened vol for the 1day and 1wk vols - naturally we then see the curve tail off as the event...
EUR$ Technical analysis - highly bearish:
Key level close:
1. On the daily and weekly we closed below the strongest pivot point of recent times below 1.10 - this is very bearish as historically this is the strongest level (lower than post brexit).
MA:
1. We trade below the 2wk and 4wk MA - this is a bearish indication + we have been below the 3m MA since...
My FX portfolio currently consists of :
- 2Long x USDJPY @ 106.8; 2Short x GBPJPY @ 151.2 (dynamic hedge for long UJ); 2Short x GBPUSD @ 1.4570. I will add to my short GBPUSD holdings if i can get a similar price & I may add to short GBPCHF or EURCHF downside if markets make a turn for the worst as IMO CHF denominations are under-priced relatively (as discussed...
Volume
Apple Volume traded up for the first time in 4 days on thursday, increasing 25% from 20m to 26m, whilst this may be considered bearish - as increased selling, it is important to not 26m is still 35%-40% below the 4wk and 6month average.
Volume cannot fall forever and we have been trading at extremely low volumes all week, so given these facts, a modest...
NASDAQ:GILD has been a great investment and I believe it will continue to be a good company to own long term. The valuation using multiple methods is outstanding compared to it's peers. Fundamentally, the question has been regarding future growth. GILD will have to find new ways to generate future sales growth to replace the expected slower growth from it's...
With an IVR/IV of 78/69, here's an oil and gas premium selling play that probably beats my XOP play that did not get filled in a shortened trading day on Friday. Additionally, it's another longer-term play that I look to work to bridge the gap between this earnings season and the next.
Jan 15 22.5/35 short strangle
POP: ~73%
Max Profit: $133/contract
BPE:...
I'm looking to put on a couple more plays to bridge the gap between the end of this earnings season and the next, but worthwhile +70 IVR non-earnings announcement plays look to be somewhat hard to come by.
Post-earnings, FIT's IV remains high (70) (it currently doesn't have a 52-week ThinkOrSwim IVR, since it hasn't been around long enough) and the premium is...
