Since its rally from 100, $USDJPY price managed to climb above 2 MA lines and above the 102 structure zone (now all are support). Tomorrow morning (check local time) Kuroda is scheduled to speak. My longer term analysis suggests that the bullish move in USDJPY has just begun but it doesn't mean there can't be a pullback before the next bullish wave. 104 is...
USD/JPY opened higher than the Friday close to a small retracement in it's initial hour and price is now trying to push high (hourly view) with a wick formed above today's open on the next candle. Markets could be primed for the Bank of Japan Chief Kuroda who is due to speak in the early hours of Monday and as per recent speeches he will likely be seeking to...
I've marked in red and green arrows where this range (purple dotted lines) has acted as resistance or support, it's clear that the purple range is a key level for determining if the Dollar will be bullish or bearish as sustained breakouts often occur within this range. With farm roles lower (as expected) we have a strange scenario where by the Dollar, Gold, Oil...
Long to 103.524 like the first target, we could have surprises from BOJ soon, but like maximum time limit, between september 7th and 9th should get the target, and second one before december 107.100
$Yen - There is little impetus for this pair this week, with this recent rally likely part of the NFP report flushing out. - Nonetheless from here I maintain my bearish bias given the BOJ and JPN govts massive let downs I think USDJPY topside will struggle and we will move through 100 once the risk-off tone returns (which is likely once the equities rally/...
BOJ Miss: 1. BOJ deliver one of the biggest misses in history (vs expectations/ pressure) - only increasing ETF purchases and dollar funding by apprx $60bn annual in total vs 10-20bps of Depo and LSP cuts + 5-20trn in QE increase + ETF increase. *See attached post for in-depth detail on the BOJ situation and price action history/ Yen strength/ Safe havens* ...
BOJ - 3trn increase in annual ETF Purchases + $24bn increase in USD funding for banks 1. The BOJ on Friday delivered a shockingly poor package, imo they changed the snallest part of their current QQE programme. 2. What was interesting though was the markets reaction - immediately after the decision $Yen spiked higher then lower to 103 level but from then and...
- As many of you know ive been tracking/ am keen on this whole macro "net risk sentiment" theme to gauge what direction markets are heading in for the day/ week/ several weeks. - We started today as planned, with both safe havens and risk asset relatively flat, before risk-on sentiment dominated early trading with yen breaking out the 107 level and equity indexes...
28/29th June BOJ Meeting Expectations by 27 analysts polled by Reuters: 1. 23/27 (85%) expect easing from the BOJ. - The Median Analyst expect a 10bps cut to the headline interest rate to -0.2% and a Yen10TRN Extenstion to the BOJ's monetary base target to Yen90TRN a month (JGB and ETF Purchases). - One analyst expects easing in September, two in October and...
Why Gold is lagging Safe have losses & Yen is outperforming 1. When looking at Gold vs Yen or XAUJPY it becomes apparent why Gold is lagging the broad safe haven losses that we have seen during this risk-recovery rally - investors are buying gold over Yen - so gold appears to be their preferred safe have asset to hold in a risk-on rally - likely a function of...
Sell this breakout. Track 4hr. TG1 : 105.56 TG2 : 103 (Bottom of channel) Kurodo may intervene at 105
With markets on edge and Japanese inflation data this week, those short the yen are hoping the Bank of Japan Governor, Haruhiko " Kamikaze " Kuroda, will further increase the balance sheet through more quantitative easing. Because when everything else fails, he'll try to go all in. Or will he? Essentially, his brilliant idea to implement negative rates, or NIRP,...
BoJ iflation target is still far away while Japanese economy might turn into technical recession. Is the next step for Bank of Japan to increase QE? Not necessarily. It can adjust target date lets say to end of 2016 and stay in 'wait and see' mode. Oil prices can pick up meanwhile and CPI can go with it. Import prices already hurting SME's and local consumers,...
Yesterday, Ashraf Laidi put out an interesting post on the USDJPY and a 40-month cycle. From April 1995 to August 1998, the pair rose just over 85 percent. In brief, in the mid-90s, the US were raising interest rates (who does that anymore? Psh), which made the dollar stronger following the recession of 1990. The Japanese yen was devalued, too, as their asset...
This week there are 2 Inside days. The first inside day mark the end of the uptrend line. In addition, price action shows a lower high and lower low. This adds to the conviction for a trend reversal as RSI indicate a bearish divergence. The weekly chart also added a bearish engulfing candle which suggest many longs are trapped and many wants out. Weekly chart...
Dollar bulls may be few and far between, as a potential rate hike has now become a "buy the anticipation, sell the rumor" play. Even the most hardcore bulls like Marc Chandler has taken a step back to rethink the dollar. After making a series of lower highs and lower lows, the dollar could very well test the lows near 93; while a series of resistance levels...
at the moment this move looks hyper extended, but it signals a ascending triangle formation the break above saw no follow through, i would wait for a re-test of 146.80 - 90 region and take a 2nd long position, I've already bought in at 146.60 and stop is at 146.70 on this trade. This might take awhile to pullback, many are not favorable for going long, as...
'On last Thursday, Kuroda met with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and assured him that he would do more if needed, especially if the BOJ is still failing to meet its 2 percent inflation target. "Should conditions emerge where the target becomes difficult to meet, we are ready to make without hesitation adjustments to policy, additional easing or whatever," Kuroda told...