May be looking too closely into this, but the 4hr ratio chart is breaking out from diagonal resistance and the RSI is forming a new high, all while not reaching oversold..
Amidst record corp bond issuance in the month of March (and April looking to be even higher) spreads remain elevated..
LQD just bucked a very important trend line. If investors have indeed lost confidence in corporate debt and we see follow through, then I see this as a bearish signal for stocks too. Typically the bond market is known to be correct over the equity market as large institutions with more knowledge than retail traders deal with bonds directly. To see corporate bonds...
LQD which tracks BBB-rated corporate bonds is reversing at the top of a a channel which started in 2012 when global central banks launched their QE forever campaign (Twist, Whatever it takes, ETF buying etc). You can see LQD break below a SSR near the top of a channel with negative short-term trend. Lots of reasons to be bearish for corporate bonds, higher...
In my previous LQD study I outlined a possibility to use the LQD as a leading indicator for equities. Looking at the daily chart a few weeks later we can see that the price is within a well defined wedge. Perhaps, the next week will bring a test of the wedge boundary. If there is an impulse breakdown it would be worth watching its effect on the direction of...
LQD is an ETF that tracks investment grade corporate bonds. www.ishares.com In this study I compare the LQD with SPY that tracks S&P 500 index. Upon review of turning points one can conclude that the corporate bonds start to go down first and recover first hinting the broader market direction. 04/07/2019
Small caps are often used as a gauge for domestic growth because they are more sensitive to changes in economic conditions, such as input costs, wages, financial stress... Many were caught off guard by the equity rollover in early October, but few were paying attention to what was occurring. In late September, financial conditions began to tighten and credit...
God bless the legacy financial media because their uselessness is a blessing. Headline to headline is no way to live through live whether you trade oil or bitcoin. The click du jour is how the 2s/5s yield curve is now inverting, and the 10s/2s are at a mere 11 bps. I have been one of the largest flat curve-ers out there. Why? Because my process shows why the...
On October 30, I published "Stronger Dollar Themes To Continue" for my subscribers, which gave a unique approach to why the dollar is rallying even tho traders foresee Fed policy getting dovish: credit spreads. "Now, when comparing credit spreads to the financial crisis it doesn't seem to be "that big." Combine record U.S. corporate debt, a highly distorted...
- just a rough idea, if credit started to widen and back to 2016 level .. SPX still a lot more room to dive - it will be more than systematic issue if credit get worse - Bull has to fix the market asap as both LQD/HYG is nosediving now
There is no question that credit markets have been distorted for a long-term, but, fortunately, if you are in tune with what is going on it help get you out of the way of a steam roller. High-yielding junk debt has been a huge trade this year as investors continued to seek yield despite valuations and a clear crowed trade. The chase for performance also led...
Getting nervous yet? Spreads contract, equities typically run higher and vice-versa. Well, spreads have been expanding and yet equities have surged higher. Small caps have not participated like the SP500. Perhaps one is lying? "Long" spreads expanding. Some reading from the NBER National Bureau of Economic Research: Credit Market Shocks and Economic...