Macro
Bitcoin by end of June - 48k?Bitcoin looks like it would like to reach up and touch 48-50k..maybe even a little higher. People are calling dooms day for all markets..dooms day for everything every day, but what they forget is that Bitcoin is one of the only places to store your wealth in these uncertain times. With a world banking crisis, inflation, war, and economic trouble looming around the globe, people will run to Bitcoin as a safe haven that the globalist banking crime syndicate can't dilute or rig to steal from you. What do you think? Let me know..
TRX Could Drop to 3.3 cents Following Failed Breakout (EW)Based on the severity of this pull back It seems like the breakout for TRX has failed, and based on the macro environment the probabilities are mounting we may briefly see new lows this year before pushing towards all time highs. This seems to be coinciding with a crash in the US banking system, which will eventually lead to a fast response by the Fed to turn the printers back on to save the banks and prop up asset prices. At first TRX could get a quick drop to 3.3 cents as asset prices depress almost across the board. Following the inevitable Fed intervention, TRX and most cryptos should push towards new all time highs. At a minimum TRX should go to over 60 cents in the following year as the money printers get turned back on again.
The very recent collapse of multiple banks in the US could lead to system wide contagion in the US banking system that will only be stopped by massive intervention and money printing by the Fed. A systemic bank run could lead to a dollar liquidity crisis and temporary demand spike for dollars as depositors can no longer get their dollars out of banks and will need to sell off other assets to pay their bills, this selling will continue up until the central bank is able to effectively deal with the situation and extinguish the fire by throwing freshly printed money on it.
The Fed typically keeps tightening until they 'break something,' and things are definitely starting to break now.
#SPX500 8.5 YEAR EXPANDING FLATThe market moves in waves and patterns. This is a macro expanding flat on the #SPX500 that corrected for 8.5 years!
During the A and C wave of the expanding flat, there were so called "recessions", the 2002 and 2008 recessions.
Or were they just A and C waves of a macro expanding flat?
It is interesting how the patterns a chart makes predicts the future of reality on a macro level.
The rules for an expanding flat is that the top of the B wave pops above the top of the preceding impulse and the bottom of the C wave pops below the low of the A wave.
It is at that moment you can start to look for buys for an expanding flat and hold on to an extension of the impulse!
BTC Diametric Ending, Long-Term Bull Market Beginning?BTC has reached the end of a diametric pattern which began at the highs in early 2021. In a diametric there must be at least 5 waves that are similar in time and 2 waves that are different. That has manifested here perfectly, orange boxes are the same time, green boxes are the same time.
This implies that we have just ended a nearly 2 year pattern and we should be entering into a bull market that takes at least as much time as the bear market and will probably go past all time highs. BTC could be over 250k by next year. Many alts will see even larger percentage gains. Money will be flowing in from China and Asia which was a key factor in both the 2017 and 2013 bull runs, which were arguably much bigger and more profitable than 2021, which was mostly pumped up on fraudulent money from FTX, Luna, 3AC, DCG, etc. Now that all the fraud has been exposed we are ready for a recovery from this mess and a "real" bull market forming in 2023.
Momentum also looks really good here and ready for a big move up. Right when all the headlines are about FTX collapsing and "Binance being insolvent" (they're not), and other FUD that has been polluting the headlines, much of which is completely baseless, we are ready for the market to start ripping up. Media manipulation is in full swing to get people to sell their coins for dirt cheap right before the giga pump.
Fibonacci Time Cycles and Price Action: Analyzing SPX CorrectionIn this idea, I will dive into the fascinating world of Fibonacci time cycles and how they relate to price action as the cycles reduce to zero. We will examine the current correction in the S&P 500 (SPX) index from the perspective of the 2008 lows and discuss the potential impact of interest rates and inflation on the market. By analyzing Fibonacci retracements and time cycles, we can gain a better understanding of the market dynamics and make more informed trading decisions.
Understanding Fibonacci Time Cycles
Fibonacci time cycles are a technical analysis tool used to identify potential turning points in the market based on the Fibonacci sequence. The sequence is a series of numbers in which each number is the sum of the two preceding ones, starting from 0 and 1. In the context of time cycles, traders apply the Fibonacci ratios (such as 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, and so on) to the time duration between significant market highs and lows to predict future turning points.
Analyzing the SPX Correction with Fibonacci Retracements
When looking at the SPX from the lows in 2008, we can see that the current correction is only a part of a larger trend. Bigger corrections took place in 2018 and 2020. Although the current correction appears more natural, the combination of low-interest rates and rising inflationary costs of goods could create significant problems in the near future.
The SPX has the potential to reach the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, which is around 4300. However, I believe it's highly possible that we could see the index drop to 3200 by late August. This current correction can be seen as a retracement of the bull run from 2008 to 2022, during which the SPX rallied by 622%.
Fibonacci Time Cycles and the 55-Year Bear Market
My analysis of Fibonacci time cycles suggests that we are currently at the end of a cycle that ended in ~2021/2022. This could potentially mark the beginning of a 55-year bear market. It's important to note that a 55-year bear market doesn't imply a constant decline for that duration. Instead, it suggests that we can expect many ups and downs over the next 55 years.
While my prediction of the time frame could be incorrect, I will adjust my analysis accordingly if needed. Given the current market conditions, I believe it's more likely that the SPX will drop to 3200 by late August, rather than reach new highs in the same time frame.
Fibonacci time cycles offer valuable insights into potential turning points in the market, and when combined with price action analysis, they can enhance our understanding of market trends. By examining the SPX correction through the lens of Fibonacci retracements and time cycles, we can better anticipate the potential impact of interest rates and inflation on the market. It's essential to remain vigilant and adapt our analysis as needed, while considering the myriad factors that influence market dynamics.
Trend until 2025? Bitcoin BLX macro trendlines and FibsAll lines are cloned from the orange trendline and seem to give nice medium- and long term support/resistance orientation.
Fibs in Log mode.
I guess, that in the coming months and years until my 4-year cycle target zone in Q4 2025, we might break below the lowest trendline in this chart.
Then, a new clone of the trendline might be applied.
"Happy Zone" end 2025 indicated :-)
BTCUSD: Targeting $146,387.66 According to Volatility IndexesBVOL (Realized BTC Volatility) has a huge gap implying an eventual 758% Upside within the index while at the sametime DVOL (Implied BTC Volatility) has a Bearish 3 Line Strike which is a very Bullish Pattern implying upside in it aswell. The last time BVOL rallied by 615% it was coupled with BTC itself going up about 610%. Applying that same logic to the current price action; If BVOL goes up 758% then BTC will go up about 750% from where it was which would take us all the way up to a macro target of about $146,387.66
3/27/2023 (Monday) SPY Analysis and Market Deep DiveMonday 3/27/2023 - In this Video I discuss The technical analysis of the SPY ETF which is a proxy the S&P500 that is often a tell on general market movements. I also discuss broader market Macros I have been watching including last week's and next weeks economic events. We also discuss some recession indicators, and other charts that show headwinds and tailwinds to equities.
In the Trading View App, You can use the links below and hit play, so you can see the action from the dates the charts were published. I will keep this going so we can follow outcomes to analysis!
KCN facing resistanceMonth chart -
facing huge resistance @ $2.01
I;ll wait for a close above $2.01 so i can average up.
Day chart -
triangle setup has broken to the upside
but wait for $2.01- 3 to clear for confirmation.
no need to rush this trade.
both long and short term charts looking bullish
and GOLD will head higher as the Fed will keep
monetary policy loose. Fed funds rates will rise
but cheap money is still buying up those
Govt bonds.
the FOOT is on both the BRAKE + THROTTLE.
in the end the car will wear out and the market will implode.
BTC Long Term view for this CycleAccumulation and distribution (tops) marked on BTC's history. By this logic there could be a $180k btc in Jan 2025 (28 months from now). Let's hope!
-RSI marks tops and bottom pretty well, same sort of level each cycle
-According to this logic 17k was the bottom for bitcoin, but we don't know how it fairs in a recessionary environment. I will probably bid in September as that tends to be the worst month for ES.
Bitcoin Log Curve Intersection as Macro Top IdeaBitcoin Log Curve Intersection as Macro Top Idea - Another idea to see how it goes, general premise being the top for this cycle will be an underside retest of the log growth curve indicator that failed in this current bear market. Or maybe multiple tops.
03/20/2023 (Monday) SPY and Market Analysis and Deep Dive into cIn this Video I discuss The technical analysis of the SPY ETF which is a proxy the S&P500 that is often a tell on general market movements. I also discuss broader market Macros I have been watching including last week's and next weeks economic events. We also discuss some recession indicators, and other charts that show headwinds and tailwinds to equities.
You can use the links below and hit play to see the progression of these indicators from when I initially published them.
Please remember to like and subscribe in You Tube or Follow and Boost In Trading View. The feedback is very welcome also.
$SPY When bullish meets bearishWhen #Bearish meets #Bullish
Looking for a run up or upwards chop based on $CS bailout and liquidity injection.
VIX needs to close above golden TL for further downside, but may need to cool off.
I'm watching $SPY and $VIX for ideal setups to initiate a short.
No guarantees on the outlook, but I'm cautious and expecting temporarily long movement.
Bitcoin is about to confirm the beginning of a bull marketAnything that follows is not to be taken as financial advice.
This is the weekly index chart for BTCUSD, and the moving averages you see in the picture are a 55EMA and a 200EMA, the only two EMAs I care about for calling death and golden crosses.
On lower timeframes such as the 4H and the 1D, you'll notice that when they get close to each other to form a cross, more than just sometimes a fakeout happens.
A fakeout, implies price action closing in the opposite direction relative to the EMAs, and when that happens, what you get is usually an explosive move.
Go apply these EMAs on charts such as ETHBTC (Binance) on the 1D and you'll see what I mean, that being just one example.
I think a proper fakeout is just as powerful - if not more - as a textbook cross itself.
Once again, confirmation will be had with a close above both the 55EMA and the 200EMA.
With that happening, BTCUSD would also see a big range break, closing above any high printed since july of last year.
Meaning I'd be comfortable calling it the start of a new bull market.
Good luck.






















