The stock market has a unique ability of embarrassing the greatest number of people. Despite what the general public might believe, bear markets do not end when conditions finally improve. They end at the moment of peak bearishness – when everyone has given up hope and is sure the market is toast. When the final bull throws in the towel... that’s when we get a...
The VIX is the volatility index of the SP500. Generally, it trends up during bearish times and trends down during bullish ones. In the past, the VIX has always spiked up during a market bottom. Looking at the chart, we can see that the VIX has not spiked up yet and formed a bottom like it has done in the past. We only have ~30 years of VIX data, but it has...
We can see this perfect group of rising channels that are the same width apart here on the btc log chart connecting our 2019 bottom to our current “alleged” market bottom, as well as connecting our 2018 top and our current top. I had to post an idea of this so I can see how these trendlines and channels continue to play pivotal roles against price action in the...
I find it very interesting just how well BTC can respect the quarterly lines of a range. You can spot certain price action patterns within the overall range but trading within the boundaries of the range can be very beneficial in a sideways environment that we find ourselves in. When range quarters are hit and coincide with oversold indicator triggers they are...
I have been waiting over a month for the reversal to finally complete. We are clearly on the path, but still need a few more things to occur to confirm that we are still in Primary wave B, but that it is near completion. IF we are still in Primary B (blue letters), we are likely in Intermediate wave C (purple letters) and Minor wave 3 (yellow numbers) was possibly...
This is a continued post from The Desperate Push to 26k, the avoidance of the weekly death cross. Please review previous post before reading and boost/share for visibility. Simplifying the outlook, these are the only two things I am currently looking at. The Daily and Weekly, golden cross vs death cross. I'll take the shorter timeframe in this bout, so a golden...
Bitcoin may be forming a perfect double bottom pattern such as the one we saw in the 2014 bear-market:
In conjunction with my previous Dow Jones analysis (Link to it down below), we foresee another 40% drop in S&P500 until mid-2023. The analysis done on these charts is based on old repeated market cycles that were last seen during the market crash of 2008. As you can see clearly on the charts, the market has been playing the exact scenario of 2008, since March...
the semiconductor industry stocks are so far outside of what is fair value to the downside that by december 2023 its just a guarantee that we will be back up to the tope of monthly envelope.
VIX reach the major resistance at 35. There is a great chance this diamond pattern may bring down VIX back to 27 support or the ideal 25 just in time for a historical 4Q midterm election rally into December. Watch next few days to see if price bounces up from diamond base or continues down. Not trading advice
SPY as of today, like in the 2009 parallel in my post before this, also had a daily deathcross. Then price made a June low at 3636, bounced up to retest dma200(wma50) but was also rejected similar to 2009. SPY also gave up all gains & even broke below the June low. Twinkle of HOPE: if entailment this week changes to positive, It is still possible that SPY may...
With TSLA, AAPL & NVDA rallying on a risk-on Monday, NQ seems to be making positive divergences similar to June but this needs some follow-thru this week. It is holding 11800 with Friday”s hammer candle suggesting a shortterm low for the month. MACD also crossed into green territory. Another Diamond reversal pattern MAY be forming similar to June? BULLISH...
The current bear market / monthly time-frame pullback should experience a monthly bottom leading to bullish sentiment throughout the market in 4 to 24 months based on previous action on this time frame. We have an unconfirmed trend resistance that would confirm on a third rejection that we can keep a patient eye on as well to look for a potential earlier...
ZM will continue to increase user base in the next few years even if work-from-home subdues. It has made a perfect ABC correction with A=C & is has been consolidating in the pre-pandemic 102 zone since Russian invasion started in Feb 2022. The risk of worst-case scenario is very low compared to the great upsides if a new EW cycle begins after ZM breaks above the...
The 2020 low of PLTR is 8.90 which it broke below to make an ABC (A=C) at near 7.21 my max pain zone. Max risk is only at 7.21 but the upsides are 8.90, 16 & 20. VERY GOOD risk to reward ratio. A new Elliott wave cycle may have begun if PLTR holds the green 7.21 zone. Not trading advice
We are a few dollars away from seeing a new buy signal from the Pi cycle bottom indicator. Nothing is guaranteed in trading but if you zoom out the chart you will notice that Pi Cycle has not failed yet EVER.
The smallcaps Russell 2000 futures RTY1! (also the IWM etf), a leading market indicator like the transports, may complete an A=C correction ending in the volume profile zone near 1500. (IWM seems to be consolidating in tranches of 200…ex…230, 210, 190, now @ 170 & maybe 150 around 4Q2022.) This will complete the final wave 5 of C-wave. As you can see in this...
I warned of this bull trap and we should now be in the final leg down. Today’s close kissed the top of the trend channel as it remained in the projected zone discussed in my recent analysis. The market could open up tomorrow, but most likely should not. Today’s highs should not get tested for at least a few more weeks. Next stop is the basement of this bear...