Idea for Real Estate: - Real Estate testing a double top after some exhaustion Sept-Oct. - MBB's rolling over, rejected at -1 Std Dev: - Because every other market component is already at +2/-2 Std Dev, and Real Estate is relatively less volatile than say S&P 500, I think the +1/-1 Std Dev is a good signal. - We will have more confirmation next week depending...
Idea for Housing/REITs (VNQ): - The Housing Market will crash. I am short REITs. - Lumber rose 400% in a year during a global crisis and then dropped 50% in a month... This is not a correction, but a bubble pop. - China reining in commodity prices. They announce that they will soon release state stockpiles of metals: www.bloomberg.com - State firms ordered to...
Idea for MBS: - Mortgage Backed Securities bubble is about to pop. GLHF - DPT
Speculative Idea for MBB (Mortgage-Backed Securities ETF): - Why is there a speculative housing bubble in the middle of a crisis? - "A major catalyst of the general financial crisis of 2008 was the subprime mortgage crisis of 2007, when a rising wave of defaults on home mortgages sent the value of mortgage backed securities plunging." - "They're in trouble right...
This is an update to previous ideas charted at New Years 2019. The 10 year yield has been following the path of lower yields in a lock step fashion, however the pace of declining yields is concerning. The 3 day looks like Niagara Falls Where do we go from here? Currently, the 10 yr yield is in the middle of the 1 (1.32%) and .786 (1.734%) retrenchment...
Long @ $55.72 - P/B ratio of 0.76 compared to the industry P/B ratio of 1.31 showing that the stock is significantly undervalued. - Market cap - $51.05B - DIV yield – 2.26% - Debt to equity – 0.48 - VWAP - 55.77 - Beta – 1.23 - Short interest - 17,678,471 - YTD shares are down 5.6% compared with the industries growth of 5%. There is considerable analyst...