- The Housing Market will crash. I am short REITs.
- Lumber rose 400% in a year during a global crisis and then dropped 50% in a month... This is not a correction, but a bubble pop.
- China reining in commodity prices. They announce that they will soon release state stockpiles of metals:
- State firms ordered to curb overseas exposure.
- Fed continues MBS purchasing with , despite RRP skyrocketing. Why? The MBS and Housing bubble is critical, and it is ready to collapse.
- Homebuyer sentiment drops to 10 year low:
- Homebuilder sentiment declines to reach a 10 month low (NAHB):
- Housing prices being speculated such that locals are priced out of the market. Institutional investors and State-backed institutions buy up neighborhoods as they seek yield in an overheated global market.
- The Credit Cycle has turned down, and the liquidity flows have been shut off. Institutions can no longer bid up their own assets.
- As prices crash, it will become cheaper to build a house than to buy one off the market, leading to increasing supply and decreasing demand.
- When housing no longer provides yield, institutions will dump their assets onto the market and prices will crater.
- MBS's and Lumber leading the crash, the REITs will soon get the hint.