It's pretty late, I'm just catching up on some work I didn't do. TLT correspond generally to the price and yield performance of the long-term sector of the U.S. Treasury market as defined by the Barclays Capital 20+ Year Treasury Index. Fridays had a mid-day 'rip your face off' bounce from the lows in the overall market. I wasn't able to catch it by the time I...
Some say that that Dow Jones Transportation Average index can be used to predict the behaviour of the stock market. If it is true: the index seems to approach a support line. Perhaps this may indicate that the sell-off in the stock market is over soon? Well, we will see ...
The Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell is making contingency plans for the growing possibility of a government shutdown ( www.fxstreet.com ). The RSI momentum indicator is starting to show a bearish divergence, after the "S&P 500" had reached my previous long target at 2800 points. Due to the uncertainty regarding the outcome of a government shutdown are...
We all believe in cryptocurrencies and the technologies behind. But only a blind couldn't see that's it is a speculative bubble. The scheme is typical, very clear and acurate. Although we knew several strong corrections in the past, this one could be different. Indeed, the past corrections were BEFORE mass public investment. It means that the market could be...
Brent Crude Oil UKOIL Brent recently broke the long term parallels that had carried it faithfully within its force ever since the lows at 44. Now it's almost exactly 50% higher, with a new high set at 65.70. We were short on the break below the parallel and then closed out around 61.15 for around 90 pips profit. Good thing we did. Bad thing we didn't go...
Bitcoin BTCUSD Badly Drawn Boy Wow. Broken the upper parallel and now consolidating around where we sold. It looks like a buy from 8530 but must hold here or it's likely to fall away more, potentially back to 8410 at lowest so stops on longs from here need to be quite tight underneath. Bit slow to see the new fantastic parallels emerging...should have used...
Look, its hard to recommend shorting something which you are long-term bullish. But given the current geopolitical situation happening around (I'm talking about the ousting of royals in Saudi Arabia over the weekend) and Kuroda's affirmation that there will not be any stimulus coming, we can expect the pair to move down lower. Do also note that the pair is also a...
Sold this pair like AUDJPY with TP1 and TP2 at S4 and S5 pivot lines respectively, and a conservative SL between S2 and S3. Daily: Weekly: Confidence: A
Sold this pair earlier with TP at S3 pivot line and SL a few pips above S1 (which is also near it's daily high) to ride the recent risk-off related to increasing geopolitical risks and also weaker than expected Chinese inflation report. www.dailyfx.com www.dailyfx.com www.dailyfx.com Daily: Weekly: Confidence: A (there's still risk that this pair...
LONG VIX SEPT FUT @12.8 TP 16-20VOLS 1. Fading risk sentiment - back of googl, msft, fb strong earnings not able to push market higher implying risk bid is over. 2. Time value - 7wks for this view to play out. I expect maturity in around 2wks but an extra 5wks of float is only positive.
Bitcoin: resistance from daily down-trend at 1716 so am closing out long for a 32 pip gain. Enough fortoday. Hope you did Ok with this.
High risk reward! Note: If you cannot power off the computer normally, press and hold the power switch for more than four seconds to shut down the computer. Just jocking :)
We are about to transition from a risk-ON inflationary environment to a risk-OFF inflationary environment. That means bond yields might fall even though inflation is rising. The US has been a huge beneficiary of the risk-ON move and as a result should see outflows. That means lower equities, and a weaker dollar. Given a falling dollar, rising inflation, and...
LONG USDJPY: 1. Slightly late posting this position but we got long at 104.5 earlier today. The rationale behind owning USD VS JPY is as follows. USD risks are bid 1) in the run up to the 2015 dec hike USD traded extremely bid with DXY breaking through 100, based on the last 2wks i expect USD to mirror 2015 and continue the bid tone we have seen both in...
LONG USDJPY: 1. Slightly late posting this position but we got long at 104.5 earlier today. The rationale behind owning USD VS JPY is as follows. USD risks are bid 1) in the run up to the 2015 dec hike USD traded extremely bid with DXY breaking through 100, based on the last 2wks i expect USD to mirror 2015 and continue the bid tone we have seen both in...
Long XAUUSD: 1. Based on the last 16yrs of daily close data (since 01/01/2000 to date) XAUUSD has a cumulative probability of a =>7th day lower at 0.3%, hence there is a implied 99.7% chance of reversal on the daily. 2. Technically there is also some nice structure about the 1250 level. 3. Fundamentally I think risk is priced very cheaply here, although...