CHoCH, BOS(Break of Structure), and Pullback ExamplesCHoCH, BOS(Break of Structure), and Pullback Examples
Multi Timeframe Analysis
Daily ----> 4H
4H ----> 1H
1H ----> 15 min
30m ----> 5m
Market Structure Simplified
"Ultimate Market Structure Course - Smart Money Concepts" by Smart Money Concepts
1. First Step: Find Valid Pullbacks
- Signal Trends
- Valid Breaks
- Reversals
Pullbacks are defined by when a low of a candle is below previous candle low
2. Identify deepest point of pullback
- That will be the unconfirmed low/high
3. Look for BOS or CHoCH to confirm valid lower/higher high or low
Pivot Points
High LowSome corrections go for a third or even a fourth leg, so I prefer a different labeling system to account for this and discuss it later in the books. In its simplest form, it counts the legs of a pullback. For example, if there is a down leg in a bull trend or in a trading range and a bar then goes above the high of the prior bar, this breakout is a high 1. If the market then has a second leg down and then a bar goes above the high of a prior bar, the breakout bar is a high 2. A third occurrence is a high 3, and a fourth is a high 4. In a bear leg or in a trading range, if the market reverses back down after one leg, the entry is a low 1. If it reverses back down after two legs up, the entry is a low 2 entry and the bar before it is a low 2 setup or signal.
Since measured moves are an important part of trading and the AB = CD terminology is inconsistent with the more commonly used ABC labeling, the AB = CD terminology should not be used. Also, I prefer to count legs and therefore prefer numbers, so I will refer to each move as a leg, such as leg 1 or the first push, and then leg 2, and so forth. After the chapter on bar counting in the second book, I will also use the high/low 1, 2, 3, 4 labeling because it is useful for traders.
ICT Unicorn Model - The powerful ModelThe Unicorn entry model in the ICT method combines the concepts of the Breaker Block and the Fair Value Gap, providing a unique approach to identifying trade opportunities. This combination highlights a future area of support/resistance.
A Bullish Unicorn Pattern consists out of:
A Lower Low (LL), followed by a Higher High (HH)
A Fair Value Gap (FVG), overlapping the established Breaker Block
A successful re-test of the FVG which confirms the pattern.
A Bearish Unicorn Pattern consists of:
A Higher High (HH), followed by a Lower Low (LL)
A Fair Value Gap (FVG), overlapping the established Breaker Block
A successful re-test of the FVG which confirms the pattern
In this trading idea, I would combine the movement of DXY and GU/EU to explain the correlation and divergence (ICT SMT). Futhermore, I want to share how powerful the ICT Unicorn Entry Model is.
How to Trade Support and Resistancesupport and resistance levels are crucial concepts that every trader needs to grasp. These levels represent key points on a chart where the price tends to reverse its direction. By analyzing historical price action, traders can identify these areas and strategize their trades based on how the price reacts upon reaching these levels.
The Simplicity and Complexity of S&R
While the idea of support and resistance is straightforward to understand, effectively trading these levels can be challenging due to psychological barriers and emotional involvement. Mastering support and resistance trading isn’t just about recognizing patterns; it’s also about understanding the human emotions driving those patterns.
What is Support and Resistance
Support is a price level where a currency’s downward trend is expected to pause due to a concentration of demand. It’s where buyers step in, viewing the currency as undervalued, thus preventing further price decline.
The OANDA:XAUUSD chart above depicts a notable support level of 2031. Historically, when the price of Gold reaches this level, it tends to initiate an upward trajectory. Traders can identify potential trading opportunities at this juncture and consider establishing long positions after the confirmation signal, such as a break of structure, signs of a liquidity sweep, or the order block.
Traders can also use the bullish candlestick pattern as an additional signal when considering support zones for buying opportunities.
In the FX:EURUSD pair, there is a noteworthy support zone extending from 1.0648 to 1.0666. Over several instances, the price has consistently demonstrated a pattern of bouncing upward from within this range, as illustrated in the chart.
Let’s see another example of support zones with stop-loss hinting.
The price level at 1.08924 serves as a significant support zone; however, it’s important to note that smart money often orchestrates moves that trigger stop-loss orders before driving the price upwards. Later in this S&R trading guide, we’ll delve into a detailed discussion of the concept of stop-loss hunting, complete with illustrative examples.
What is Resistance
Resistance levels are price levels at which the price tends to move in a downward direction.
Let’s analyze the chart provided above. The circled areas on the chart represent strong resistance zones where the price tends to move in a downward direction in the EURUSD pair. It’s worth noting that quite often, the price moves downward after triggering stop-loss orders in these areas. This phenomenon can be observed frequently in any currency pair.
The Psychology Behind These Levels
Fear and Greed: These are the two main emotions at play. At support levels, fear (of prices falling more) meets greed (for buying at a low price). At resistance levels, it’s the opposite; greed (for higher selling prices) meets fear (of prices dropping).
Group Thinking: Many traders are watching the same levels. When a lot of people act the same way (buying at support or selling at resistance), it reinforces these levels.
Self-Fulfilling Prophecy: Because so many traders are watching these levels, their reactions to them can make the support and resistance predictions come true.
Formula of Support and Resistance
Pivot Point Calculation
The Pivot Point (PP) is calculated as the average of the high, low, and close prices of the previous trading period:
Pivot Point (PP) = (High + Low + Close) / 3
First-Level Support and Resistance
First Resistance (R1) This is calculated by doubling the pivot point, then subtracting the low of the previous period.
First Resistance (R1) = (2 x PP) – Low
First Support (S1) This is found by doubling the pivot point and subtracting the previous period’s high.
First Support (S1) = (2 x PP) – High
Second-Level Support and Resistance
Second Resistance (R2) This level is calculated by adding the difference between the high and low of the previous period to the pivot point.
Second Resistance (R2) = PP + (High – Low)
Second Support (S2) This is determined by subtracting the difference between the high and low of the previous period from the pivot point.
Second Support (S2) = PP – (High – Low)
Third Level Support and Resistance
Third Resistance (R3) Calculated by adding twice the difference between the pivot point and the low to the high.
Third Resistance (R3) = High + 2(PP – Low)
Third Support (S3) Found by subtracting twice the difference between the high and the pivot point from the low.
Third Support (S3) = Low – 2(High – PP)
These pivot point-based support and resistance levels are crucial tools for traders, providing potential points of market reversal or continuation. The pivot point is often seen as a marker of equilibrium between bullish and bearish market forces.
The Phenomenon of Stop-Loss Triggers at These Points
A stop-loss order is a tool used in trading to sell a security when it reaches a predetermined price, to limit potential losses. To understand how it relates to support and resistance, consider the following analogy:
Think of trading as a game where you establish a rule: if your score drops below a certain point, you decide to exit the game to prevent further losses. This rule resembles the concept of a “stop-loss” in trading.
Now, picture a scenario involving seasoned players, often represented by large funds, who aim to maximize their gains in the game. They observe that many players have set their exit points at a specific level, such as 100 points.
These experienced players intentionally create the impression that the game’s score is approaching that critical 100-point level. As the score gets closer to 100 points, other players become anxious and decide to exit the game (activating their stop-loss orders) to avoid more significant losses. This sudden mass exit results in a sharp decline in the game’s score.
Smart money takes advantage of this situation by purchasing more points at the lower price they anticipated. After acquiring these points at a discounted rate, they allow the game’s score to rebound, ultimately profiting when it reaches higher levels.
In essence, this illustrates how Informed Money, often represented by large funds, may manipulate the market by creating the illusion that prices are nearing significant support or resistance levels. This can trigger the activation of stop-loss orders by other traders, enabling the seasoned players to capitalize on lower prices before the market resumes its upward trajectory.
Trading Strategy for Support and Resistance
When trading support and resistance make decisions on their base consider the following points.
Identify Support and Resistance in Larger Time Frames: Locate these levels in extended time frames like H1, H4, and D1 to gain a clear understanding of the market’s pivotal points. This approach not only clarifies your perspective when trading in smaller time frames but also reduces confusion. Confusion often arises from too many levels, making it challenging to determine which levels present viable trading opportunities.
Patience: Wait for the price to reach these levels and look for additional signals.
Utilize Bearish and Bullish Candlestick Patterns: Employing candlestick patterns at these levels aids in decision-making and enables traders to strategically set take-profit and stop-loss orders.
Develop a Trading Bias: Establish a daily bias at the beginning of each week to assist in deciding whether to take long or short trades. Focus only on those levels that align with your trading bias.
In conclusion, discipline is paramount in trading. It’s essential to avoid overtrading and adhere strictly to your established trading plans. Using stop-loss orders is crucial in managing risk and protecting your capital. Additionally, limiting your focus to a fixed set of currency pairs allows for a more in-depth understanding of their market dynamics, leading to more informed trading decisions. Remember, consistency and discipline in following these practices can significantly enhance your trading effectiveness and help in achieving long-term success.
how to identify strong support and resistance
Historical Price Levels: The most basic method is to look at historical price charts. Strong support and resistance levels are often at prices where the market has repeatedly reversed or consolidated. These levels are more significant if they have been tested multiple times.
Round Numbers: Psychological levels often play a crucial role in trading. Prices such as 1.3000 in EUR/USD or 100 in USD/JPY are examples where traders might expect support or resistance.
Mastering Fibonacci Retracement :Navigating Bitcoin's VolatilityMastering Fibonacci Retracement :Navigating Bitcoin's Volatility
Navigating the volatile landscape of Bitcoin trading can be a daunting task for both novice and experienced traders alike. However, equipped with the right tools, traders can identify potential support and resistance levels, make informed decisions, and capitalize on market movements. One such tool that has stood the test of time is the Fibonacci retracement tool, a staple in the arsenal of many traders due to its uncanny ability to forecast potential price reversals with remarkable accuracy.
Understanding Fibonacci Retracement
Fibonacci retracement is based on the idea that markets will retrace a predictable portion of a move, after which they will continue to move in the original direction. The concept draws from the Fibonacci sequence, a series of numbers where each number is the sum of the two preceding ones (0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, and so on). In trading, these numbers are translated into percentage levels that traders use to identify potential reversal points on price charts.
Key Levels to Watch
The most commonly used Fibonacci retracement levels are 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, and 78.6%. These percentages represent potential support and resistance levels where the price of an asset like Bitcoin could experience a reversal or consolidation. The 61.8% level, often referred to as the "golden ratio," is particularly noteworthy for its reliability in predicting price movements.
Applying Fibonacci to Bitcoin Trading
When applying Fibonacci retracement levels to Bitcoin's price action, traders often look for significant highs and lows to place their retracement lines. From there, the tool provides a visual representation of potential areas where the price may stall or reverse. For instance, during a downtrend, a retracement to a higher Fibonacci level like 61.8% could indicate a potential area of resistance where traders might consider taking profits or entering short positions.
The Significance of the 78.6% Level
Recent discussions among traders have highlighted the 78.6% retracement level as a crucial point for Bitcoin, suggesting that reaching this level often precedes significant corrections. This phenomenon underscores the importance of Fibonacci levels in anticipating market movements, allowing traders to adjust their strategies accordingly.
Real-world Application
Consider Bitcoin's historic rally and subsequent corrections. Traders have observed that significant pullbacks often align with key Fibonacci levels. For example, during a bullish phase, if Bitcoin's price retraces to the 61.8% or 78.6% levels before bouncing back, this could be seen as a strong signal for trend continuation.
Conclusion
The Fibonacci retracement tool is more than just a mathematical curiosity; it's a reflection of human psychology and market sentiment. By identifying levels where price action may change direction, traders can make more informed decisions, manage risk more effectively, and potentially increase their chances of success in the market.
As with any trading tool, it's important to use Fibonacci retracements in conjunction with other indicators and analysis methods to validate potential trading signals. Remember, no tool can predict market movements with absolute certainty, but by understanding the tendencies and patterns, traders can navigate the Bitcoin market with greater confidence. BINANCE:BTCUSDT BITSTAMP:BTCUSD BINANCE:BTCUSDT.P
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Support and Resistance VS Supply and Demand. Important Lesson
In the today's post, I will compare support and resistance levels with supply and demand zones.
I will explain to you the difference between them and share important tips and examples.
What are support and resistance levels?
We also call them key levels. These are particular levels on a price chart from where in the past we saw significant bullish or bearish movements.
Key support will be a one single level, that has a historical significance and from where a bullish reaction will be anticipated.
The all-time low on USDCHF will be a perfect example of a key support.
It is one single level that was respected one time in the past and from where a bullish reversal initiated.
Key resistance will be a one single level on a price chart that has a historical significance and from where a bearish movement will be expected.
The all-time high on Gold will represent a key horizontal resistance.
That level was respected one time in the past and from that level exactly the market dropped heavily.
What are supply and demand zones?
In comparison to support and resistance levels, supply and demand zones are the areas on a price chart. The zones that are based on multiple touches and consequent strong bullish or bearish reactions.
Demand zone will be the area that was tested at least 2 times in the past, and the price should strictly respect different price levels within that area.
A similar reaction will be anticipated from the demand zone in the future.
The yellow area above will a good example of a demand zone.
You can see that the price tested that area 3 times, and each time the market respected different levels lying within that.
These 3 tests compose the demand area.
Supply zon e will be the area that was tested at least 2 times in the past and the price should strictly respect different price levels within that area.
A similar reaction will be anticipated from the demand zone in the future.
In this example, a supply area on EURUSD is based on 2 touches of key levels, lying very close to each other.
On the chart above, I underlined 2 horizontal support levels - the single levels that were respected by the market multiple times, and a supply zone - the area that is based on tests of multiple levels lying close to each other.
Support and resistance levels give you SINGLE levels from where you can look for trading opportunities. While supply and demand zones represent the areas. After a test of a supply and demand zone, the market may react to a RANDOM level within that.
For newbie traders, it is highly recommendable to trade single key levels, while experienced traders can broaden their strategies and trade supply and demand zones as well.
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Quad Witching: Mark Your Calendar for 2024Quad-witching is a phenomenon unique to the stock and options markets, occurring four times a year. It captures a flurry of activity sparked by the simultaneous expiration of four types of derivatives contracts: stock index futures, stock index options, stock options, and single stock futures.
The third Friday of March, June, September, and December marks these critical days in the trading calendar, bringing with them distinct opportunities and challenges for investors and traders alike.
Quad Witching S&P 500 Index Price Drops 2023
March -1.1%
June -0.37%
September -1.22%
December -0.1%
Average Drop 0.7%
The Basics of Quad Witching
Quad Witching is a critical event for anyone engaged in the stock market due to its pronounced effects on market volatility. Understanding its mechanics, significance, and impact helps investors and traders navigate the complexities of financial markets.
Definition of Quadruple Witching
Quadruple Witching is a term used to describe the simultaneous expiration of four types of financial derivatives: stock index futures, stock index options, stock options, and single stock futures. This event happens every quarter, specifically on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December. It poses distinct considerations for market participants.
Significance of Quadruple Witching Dates
It is important for those who are involved in the financial markets to mark the calendar for Quadruple Witching Dates. These days witness increased trading activity as investors and traders adjust or close out their derivative positions. This period of adjustment is a display of strategic decision-making as market participants act to manage their investments before contracts expire.
Impact on Market Volatility
During Quad Witching, there is a simultaneous expiration of derivative contracts that can lead to higher trading volume and market volatility. Traders and investors need to be aware of the potential fluctuations in prices resulting from the amplified trading activity, which can significantly impact the short-term valuation of securities.
Domination of USDT + USDC and lows/maxims of BTC. CorrelationIn the graph, combined into one graph of the dominance of such stablecoins as USDT and USDC.
Orange color—chart of the bitcoin price against the dollar.
The time interval is 1 week. The graph is logarithmic.
The same chart and the same parameters on the candlestick chart .
All BTC price lows and highs are specially shown. Compare what the capitalization of stablecoins was at the time.
At an earlier time, the dominant stablecoin was one USDT, later USDC was added. They occupy a significant capitalization. BUSD and DAI are less capitalized. They too can be added to this “indicator” of the Pumps/Dumps market.
I think the dominance history and the bitcoin overlay chart illustrate well which market phase and in which areas to buy and sell bitcoins and other speculative crypto coins.
Centralized Stablecoin capitalization of a decentralized market .
Sounds crazy, doesn't it? The dominance of centralized in a decentralized market. The 3rd,4th,6th places are naturally occupied by centralized stablecoins such as: #USDT #USDC #BUSD.
This kind of decentralized cryptocurrency financial world (freedom from the dictatorship of banks, power states, and so on) did you imagine, for example, in 2015-2017? Is it good or bad? What will happen after a while? What trend will develop further after the community bait has been swallowed?
3rd place . USDT ( .... "Reds" .... )
$67,562,687,657
4th place . USDC (Circle, Coinbase, JPMorgan, Blackrock .... )
$51,726,419,583
6th place . BUSD (Binance)
$20,003,320,692
13th place DAI ETH (!)
BTC and ETH dominance.
Continuing on this “democracy” theme of crypto sandbox capitalization. Today 14 09 2022.
Market Cap: $989,560,104,72
Dominance:
#BTC: 38.9%
#ETH: 19.9%
Total 2 assets: 58,7%
Also add 3,4,6,13 top stablecoins to this.
Stablecoins over 20%.
Almost 60% of the market is 2 assets.
Over 80% of the market is 6 assets.
So much for the true mythology of decentralization ))).
How to look for a “live chart” for yourself and combine the dominance of USDT and USDC:
1) Look for the MARKET CAP USDT DOMINANCE, %
2) On the right side of the chart in the search field, press the + button
3) Write MARKET CAP USDC DOMINANCE, %.
For the analysis, it will also be useful to track at the same time:
1) BTC dominance
2) US dollar index (DXY, USDX)
BTC dominance
BTC to altcoin dominance. Stablecoin dominance and market pamp.
US Dollar Index (Fed)with prices of BTC lows/maxims. Correlation of assets.
DXY and PampDump BTCMarkets Cycles.
This is what it looks like on a line chart to illustrate simple correlation things.
Preparedness for force majeure.
I would also like to say that all stabelcoins are focused on the "stability" of the U.S. dollar. Think about what would happen if, for some reason, that stability were to be undermined in the blink of an eye. Then you are faced with a very difficult choice.
What to do? Sell/buy cryptocurrency/shares? Just think ahead "What do you do" if, purely hypothetically, for some fantastic, hard-to-imagine reasons this happens. Think ahead in today's calm time (are you sure it's not calm now?), so you won't be caught off guard in a turbulent time.
How to Trade Fibonacci like TRADER9224The golden ratio is everywhere! It's even in the charts.. In this video, I go over how I use price action and Fib levels to get a general sense of the market.
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EDUCATIONAL: F 200%+ move in 82-84I want to start periodically sharing my retrospective analysis of market leaders, that made triple digits gains during bull markets in different time-periods.
The purpose of this analysis is to find commonalities in price patterns and behaviour among the best-performing stocks, that repeat themselves in each and every up-cycle throughout market history. That will help new stock market participants to better exploit new emerging opportunities.
As my stock market history teacher - John Boik - use to say it: "Study the past, so you can profit in the future".
Retrospective analysis of Ford ( NYSE:F ) during 1982-194:
0. Great Relative strength. When SPX (see the upper chart) makes lower lows, FORD is making higher highs on noticeable pick-up in average daily volume. Also notice who price creates a flat-base and latter breaks out (BO) from it with volume surging above average;
1. First BUY could be made here with very tight 3% stop, a bit or right after W. O'Neil's «shake-out + 10%» rule (buy if price shakes you out and quickly reverse and runs higher by 10%) after the double bottom pattern in the bottom of the base.
2. Because of the bear market nature of the general index, quick 12-15% gain could be used to trim 1/2 or 2/3 of the position to guaranty profits, and selling the rest for break-even during the following re-test of break-out area;
3. Could be bought again during the BO of perfect VCP with tight 2.5% stop, and...
4. ...sold for the quick 5-7x return-to-risk gain.
5. When the index makes its final lower-low, F's price rebases, making a higher-low, and quickly runs higher and breaks out in Aug82 along with the SnP500.
F could be bought and shaked out during initial BO attempt, and then re-bought after price follows through in two days with volume support.
Notice how price pattern rhythms with prior Dec81-Mar82 base.
6. This big red reversal bar with substantial volume pick-up could be used to book another 15-17% gain with only initial 3-4% stop.
7. It is already clear that F is the new market leader of this new up-trend and it makes sense to track how the price acts if it corrects to 50MA (Red line) that coincides with re-tests of prior BO point.
If to zoom in into the volume dynamics of this basing actions around 50D MA, accumulation (surge in volume with closes in in upper part of the bar dominate volume on corrective bars) becomes very evident.
8. New BUY coming from this low cheat BO with massive volume support. Because the average cost was so low, one may want to move stop to break-even or tracing 50D MA.
9. Price closed in the upper third of the day - good supportive actions on the 50D MA. If stopped-out, shares could be re-bought by the end of the day or on next day BO with tight stop and low of the day.
10. Shares could be sold into this kind of climactic run above the 7 month channel line + the general market barely moves to old highs indicating relative divergence and lack of overall momentum in the market.
11. Good tight area. Could have been bought at BO and sold at BE after the BO proved to be fake one.
12. New BUY under shake-out + 10% rule with stop bellow
50D MA after it crosses the buy price. Massive volume advance on BO day acts as confirmation of large institutional interest in the stock (notice how these green volume sky-scrapers bars tend to dominate the red selling bars latter-on until the up-trend changes).
Notice again how the price shows the same character shake-out pattern it made during Dec81-Mar82 and May-Aug82. As Nicolas Darvas observed that "stocks have characters just like people".
13. Perfect selling area: price moves above the channel line in negative divergence to the market (index is not making higher-highs).
14. Same type of character behaviour with shake-out and Mark Minervine's «slingshot» move on volume support, where «shake-out +10%» buy rule could be used to establish the position with tight stop bellow the short-term 8/21emas.
15. Sell 3/4 of position or all in this first evident distribution bar + the market seems tired and is loosing momentum.
Very noticeable distribution bars starting to appear - some heavy selling and not much buying.
Important sign of character change.
16. This low volume pattern during this up-move shows that late retail buyers are stepping in with no institutional support.
That is the hint that price advance is prone to failure.
17. Definite selling signal. Price dives bellow 50MA with substantial distribution started dominating the volume pattern.
The Dance of Support and Resistance in Forex and Gold 💃🏦✨
Support and resistance levels are like the heartbeat of the forex and gold markets, constantly pulsating with potential trading opportunities. But what happens when these vital levels flip roles? In this comprehensive guide, we'll explore the intriguing phenomenon of how support can morph into resistance and vice versa. Through real-world examples, you'll discover the dynamic interplay of these key levels and how they can shape your trading decisions.
Understanding the Flip: Support Becomes Resistance and Vice Versa
Support and resistance levels are fundamental to technical analysis, often seen as static lines on a chart. However, the market's fluidity means that these levels can switch roles over time. Let's delve into why and how this flip occurs:
1. Support Becomes Resistance
When a former support level switches to become resistance, it's often due to a change in market sentiment. Traders who previously bought at that support level may now turn into sellers, creating resistance.
2. Resistance Becomes Support
Conversely, resistance levels can transform into support zones when market dynamics change. Traders who previously sold at resistance may now view it as a buying opportunity, creating support.
3. Psychological Factors
Psychological factors play a substantial role in this support/resistance dance. Traders' perceptions of key levels can influence their behavior. Breakouts above resistance or below support can trigger a herd mentality, leading to a swift role reversal.
Understanding the fluid nature of support and resistance levels is a valuable tool for forex and gold traders. These key levels don't remain static; they evolve with changing market sentiment and events. By recognizing how support can become resistance and vice versa, traders can adapt their strategies and make more informed decisions. This dynamic interplay adds an exciting dimension to technical analysis and can be a significant asset in your trading journey. So, join the dance of support and resistance, and let it guide your path to trading success. 💃🏦✨
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Supply and Demand Zones: Buying Low, Selling High1. What Are Supply and Demand Zones?
In the cryptocurrency trading, supply and demand zones are pivotal concepts that profoundly impact market behavior. These zones act as critical areas where traders engage in buying and selling actions, significantly influencing price movements. To gain a deeper understanding of how these zones work, let's delve into the specifics.
2. What Is A Supply Zone?
A supply zone, within the context of cryptocurrency trading, represents a resistance area where traders are inclined to sell their assets. Supply zones are typically positioned above the current market spot price and often coincide with prominent psychological price thresholds, such as $50,000 or $60,000. This zone often becomes the focal point for take-profit orders, and when the price approaches it, resistance ensues. Unless there's a notable surge in buying pressure to counteract the selling momentum, prices are prone to decline.
3. What Is A Demand Zone?
On the flip side, a demand zone serves as a support area where traders favor purchasing cryptocurrency assets. Demand zones are generally situated below the current market spot price and are frequently aligned with significant psychological price levels, such as $10,000 or $20,000. Traders are inclined to set limit buy orders within these zones, leading to upward price movements as the appeal of the support level draws in buyers.
4. How to Draw Supply and Demand Zones?
Drawing supply and demand zones is a fundamental skill for cryptocurrency traders. To create these zones effectively, traders often employ the "Rectangle" tool available on @TradingView charts. By identifying historical peak levels and bottoms where price reversals have occurred, traders can accurately delineate supply and demand areas.
5. How to Find Supply and Demand Zones?
While there isn't a specific indicator dedicated to supply and demand, we can utilize tools like "Pivot Points" to narrow down these key areas.
Pivot Points are instrumental in highlighting support and resistance levels, making them valuable for identifying potential supply and demand zones.
When Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies reach these levels marked by Pivot Points, significant price reactions often follow, offering prime opportunities for profitable trades.
6. How to Trade Supply and Demand Zones?
Trading based on supply and demand zones is a versatile strategy that suits both short-term and long-term trading approaches. The fundamental principle remains constant: buy within demand zones and sell within supply zones.
For example, suppose Bitcoin is currently trading at $25,900, and demand zones are situated in the range of $25,300 to $25,600. In this case, we can place buy orders within this demand zone and sell orders in the supply zones. It's essential to adapt this strategy to your specific trading goals and preferences, utilizing support and resistance levels as a foundational framework for drawing trend lines and setting limit orders.
Incorporating the power of supply and demand zones into your cryptocurrency trading strategy can provide invaluable insights and enhance your overall trading success.
Whether you're a day trader or a long-term investor, comprehending and effectively utilizing these zones can enable you to make more informed decisions and potentially amplify your profitability in the cryptocurrency trading.
Unveiling the Battle Between Buyers and Sellers🕯📈🤝
Introduction
Candlestick charts are a cornerstone of forex trading, offering valuable insights into market dynamics. One key element of a candlestick is the size of its body, which provides crucial information about the strength of buyers and sellers. In this comprehensive article, we'll explore how the size of a candle's body reflects market sentiment, provide real-world examples, and equip you with the knowledge to make informed trading decisions.
Understanding Candlestick Bodies
The body of a candlestick represents the difference between the opening and closing prices within a specific time frame. Its size and color convey essential information about the battle between buyers (bulls) and sellers (bears).
Interpreting Candlestick Body Size
1. Large Bullish Candle Body:
A candle with a large bullish body indicates strong buying pressure. In such cases, the closing price is significantly higher than the opening price, suggesting that buyers have dominated the market during the given time frame.
2. Large Bearish Candle Body:
Conversely, a candle with a substantial bearish body signifies strong selling pressure. The closing price is well below the opening price, indicating that sellers have dominated.
3. Small or Doji Candle Body:
A small or doji candle body suggests indecision or a balance between buyers and sellers. The opening and closing prices are close, and the body may appear as a thin line or a small box.
Relevance and Trading Strategies
1. Trend Confirmation: Large bullish or bearish candle bodies can confirm the strength of an existing trend. Traders may use such candles to enter or add to positions in the direction of the trend.
2. Reversal Signals : Small or doji candle bodies near support or resistance levels can signal potential trend reversals. Traders watch for follow-up candles to confirm reversal patterns.
3. Volatility Assessment: Candle body size can also provide insights into market volatility. Larger bodies often accompany higher volatility, while smaller bodies indicate calmer market conditions.
Conclusion
Mastering the interpretation of candlestick bodies is a valuable skill in forex trading. It enables traders to gauge the strength of buyers and sellers, confirm trends, identify potential reversals, and assess market volatility. By incorporating this knowledge into your trading strategy, you can make more informed decisions and enhance your ability to navigate the ever-changing forex market. 📊🕯📈
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HOW-TO: Historical Pattern Matcher [Trendoscope]Hello everyone, here is a short video on how to use the indicator Historical Pattern Matcher . In this video, we went through the indicator components and settings in detail. All the information are also available on the script page. Please go through and let me know if you have further questions.
Finding Bottoms Using Monthly Inside Candles: DKNGNow, let's take a look at $DKNG.
One of my highest conviction trades this year in January.
In this case, we traded within its March '20 monthly inside range.
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DKNG
We zoom in to see not only did the monthly inside low hold, but we have a massive bull flag breakout.
Add the fact that Massachusetts had an inevitable sports betting approval coming, this became a no brainer A+ setup.
Given at $13-$14.
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We capitalized on NASDAQ:DKNG , then rolling it up to a 3/17 22.5c with our target of what?
The March '20 monthly inside resistance of $19.50.
We sold near the top of its first wave into $21, now providing a 50%+ move on underlying since adding to WL in January.
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After a pullback, NASDAQ:DKNG reclaimed the breakout of its March '20 inside range $19.50, providing another massive move into $30+ (+50%).
From the time of my WL add in January, this has now provided over 110% upside.
See how breaks of monthly inside ranges provide large moves?
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📊 Navigating The Trading Range📌What Is a Trading Range?
A trading range is a period during which an asset consistently fluctuates between high and low prices. The upper limit of the range acts as a resistance level, meaning it tends to hinder further price increases. The lower limit of the range serves as a support level, providing a barrier against significant price declines. When an asset breaks through or falls below its trading range, it usually means there is momentum (positive or negative) building. A breakout occurs when the price of a security breaks above a trading range, while a breakdown happens when the price falls below a trading range.
Typically, breakouts and breakdowns are more reliable when they are accompanied by a large volume, which suggests widespread participation by traders and investors. Many investors look at the duration of a trading range. Large trending moves often follow extended range-bound periods.
📌Support and Resistance
If an asset is in a well-established trading range, traders can buy when the price approaches its support and sell when it reaches the level of resistance only if there is confluence and signs for it. Using volume is a good indication of spotting continuation or reversals. If the price is approaching a support level with high sell-side volume, its a good indication it might just break down and continue the downtrend to the next support zone. You can define major support/resistance zones where there was clear reaction in the past and use them as major pivots to guarantee safer entries.
Always remember two key things about S/R. The first is, the more times a S/R zone is tested the higher the change a breakout/breakdown will occur. Once a S/R breaks, it will automatically turn into the opposite of what it was, the price break out of the resistance and range above. That previous resistance will act as a support level next time the price action touches it.
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Finding Bottoms Using Monthly Inside Candles: SNOWThis past year, I shared many bottoms on names on my weekly WLs based on bottoming consolidation structures, mentioning a specific strategy as a reasoning for the trades. Aside from understanding price action, I used a simple method:
Monthly inside candles/bars.
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What is an inside candle/bar?
Inside candles trade “inside” its previous candle. The previous candle’s high and low can be used as resistance and support, respectively. Your trade execution comes on a break & hold above/below the range.
Here are a few examples of this:
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NYSE:SNOW
This has traded within it’s May ‘22 inside range for over a year. This has been one of my top watches earlier this year.
The range provides a macro resistance/support of $187.23 and $112.10, respectively. These levels can now be used as targets for your trades.
How do I execute on this?
Zoom into LTFs to find swing opportunities. In my 1/23/23 weekly watchlist, I provided NYSE:SNOW based on a previous bull div + key support/demand being held (red box).
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All swing contracts provided on the WL printed, while NYSE:SNOW saw a massive upside move from $140 into $178.70 within 2 weeks.
You’ll also notice my invalidation for this was $133.10 while the low was $134.34. This invalidation was based on a breakdown of the range low.
Now once again, on 3/31/2023 I mentioned NYSE:SNOW as a potential high R:R trade.
Based on the exact same reasoning as my January WL.
Once again, NYSE:SNOW was able to hold its demand zone with a macro target of the monthly inside candle resistance.
NYSE:SNOW
The same exact entry & same exact analysis now provided a recent move into my $187.23 target. First move providing a 33% move, second providing a 42% move.
This is how you take advantage of macro inside ranges (specifically monthly candles in these examples).
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The Best Odds within a Consolidated MarketEvery pattern of the market has precise areas where the probabilities can play in the most favorable way for you, if you trust the pattern (until it expires). Of course, we trust patterns... that's what we do: we drink and trust patterns .
This example on the XRPUSDT pair is a good example of this. As a day trader (or a FTT trader), your hope here would be to catch a meaningful impulse, a long movement of the price that could give you profits. If you want that, where would you place your entry?
The basic knowledge tells about "zones", but all zones are not equally safe and important in every pattern.
For example, we know that the average zone in a consolidated market (the midrange between its resistance and support) is important... but is it safe? Let's think about it:
By definition, an established market that goes sideways is bouncing between its resistance and support zones. It also tends to bounce against the midrange, of course (or, at least, it tends to struggle in that place); but normally you would expect the price to break the middle of the channel in order to reach its margins. Why? Because that's the very nature of the pattern! Duh!
If the price surpass the midrange, the pattern stays vigorous, healthy and reliable. But what happens if the price exceeds markedly the channel's resistance or support? That would be an apparent or definitive breakout of such pattern... its closure: There's no trustable pattern anymore and you must be careful because your previous analysis now belongs to the past.
This reflection is meant to warn you about one of the common mistakes we commit –perhaps because of the nature (a fault?) of our system or because of our unwise decisions–: Not waiting for the price to come up to the best spot for our entry. Not being selective enough when deciding the best settings of the market.
In my series about trading psychology I expect to delve more into this attitude of not caring too much about our best chances, which is a way of not protecting our capital –although there is also a problem in caring too much , to the point of inertia–. But, for now, let's just reflect about the significant disadvantage of placing our bets into forecasts that objectively lack the best odds within a known pattern! Surely those are not the most educated bets we are capable of... and a profitable trader is person who makes educated bets.
✨ P2P INDi [PRO] ✨ TUTORIAL ✨1. Go to the 1D time frame
2. Open chart drop down menu and select Point and Figure*
*Point & Figure below the 1D time frame is ONLY available to TradingView members that are subscribed to the Pro plan and above
3. Click on the SETTINGS wheel on the P2P INDi
4. Locate the DEFAULTS drop-down menu and select RESET SETTINGS
5. Click the INPUT tab
5. PIVOT PRICES
(a) Identify price(s) nearest the Pivot High (PH) and the Pivot Low (PL)
(b) Place those coordinates in the corresponding input box
(c) Click OK (at the bottom right)
6. On the Tool Panel (to the left), identify Magnet Mode and turn it on (weak or strong)
7. PIVOT PLACEMENT
(a) Drag the Pivot High line of P2P INDi and snap it on the corresponding X
(b) Do the same for the Pivot Low line and snap it on the corresponding O
8. ANNOTATING TREND
(a) Identify the trend shown on the Heads Up Display (top right-hand corner)
(b) If the DOWNTREND (red) is displayed, remove all three Buy Order TPs
(c) If the UPTREND (green) is displayed, remove all three Sell Order TPs
9. SET YOUR POSITIONS
(a) Place Buy and/or Sell Orders at 2%-3% or less of your Net Asset Value (NAV)
(b) If shaving, take 25% profit at the first two Take Profit (TP) prices.
(c) Stop Losses should be equal to or beyond the PH and PL lines
(d) If stop loss is greater than your risk tolerance:
— lower your position size or
— tighten your stop loss by bringing it closer to your entry
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Price BreakoutsHello traders 📊
On this picture here you can see 3 types of breakouts. On the left side you can see breakout examples in an downtrend and on the right side, you can see examples in an uptrend.
Breakouts occur when price breaks a certain zone (support or resistance) and in many cases breakouts represent very important moment. This is usually good time to look for opportunity to trade.
First type of breakout is "strong breakout". They occur once the price breaks certain zone with a strong candle and continue to move without pullback.
Second type of breakout is "retest". Retests are very common and extremely useful. Some of the best trading opportunities are when retest occurs. This means that price went back to test previously broken zone and this is usually good place to buy or sell.
Third type of breakout is "fake-out". This is the worst scenario as price quickly goes back after a breakout. Traders usually enter after a breakout, but once fake-out occurs, traders lose as price goes back quickly to hit stop loss.
We can not know exactly when fake-out will occur, but the best way to protect your account from this is to wait for the candle to close and to avoid to trade when big news are about to release.
Have a great day!
How to Use the Supply and Demand Deluxe Indicator
Welcome, fellow traders, to this exciting tutorial where we dive deep into the world of supply and demand analysis using the powerful Supply and Demand Deluxe indicator that I launched this morning. Prepare yourself for an enjoyable learning experience as we unravel the mysteries of supply and demand levels across various timeframes. So, grab your favorite trading beverage, sit back, and let's embark on this adventure together!
Section 1: Understanding Supply and Demand Analysis:
Before we delve into the specifics of the Supply and Demand Deluxe indicator, let's understand the importance of supply and demand analysis in trading. Supply represents the availability of shares or contracts for sale, while demand represents the number of buyers interested in purchasing those shares or contracts. By analyzing the interaction between supply and demand, traders can identify potential turning points, support and resistance levels, and areas of high buying or selling interest. This knowledge forms the foundation of effective trading strategies, and the Supply and Demand Deluxe indicator is here to assist us in this journey.
Section 2: Introducing the Supply and Demand Deluxe Indicator:
The Supply and Demand Deluxe indicator is a powerful tool designed specifically for TradingView. Its primary goal is to identify supply and demand levels on various timeframes, including weekly, daily, and hourly. With visual plots and customization options, this indicator empowers traders to make well-informed decisions based on the principles of supply and demand. It caters to traders of all styles and timeframes, from day traders to long-term investors.
Section 3: Getting Started: Installing and Adding the Indicator to Your Chart:
To begin using the Supply and Demand Deluxe indicator, install it on your TradingView platform. Visit the TradingView website, navigate to the indicators section, and search for "Supply and Demand Deluxe (Stock Justice)." Click on the indicator to access its details and add it to your chart. The indicator will be added and ready to unlock its potential.
Section 4: Exploring the Key Components and Functionalities:
Let's explore the key components and functionalities of the Supply and Demand Deluxe indicator, which help us identify and interpret supply and demand levels effectively.
4.1 Daily and Weekly Pivots:
Daily and weekly pivots provide essential reference points. The indicator allows you to plot the previous week's high and low, yesterday's high and low, and the midpoint of yesterday's range. Visualizing these pivots helps gauge potential areas of interest and determine price behavior.
4.2 Weekly Supply and Demand Levels:
Weekly supply and demand levels are critical for understanding the broader market context. With the Supply and Demand Deluxe indicator, you can plot these levels, customize the number of levels displayed, choose line colors and styles, and decide whether to extend the lines. Enabling the "Show Price" option enhances your analysis.
4.3 Daily Supply and Demand Levels:
Similar to the weekly levels, daily supply and demand levels provide valuable insights into intraday price dynamics. Customize the number of levels displayed, choose line colors and styles, and determine line extensions. Enabling the "Show Price" option visualizes corresponding prices.
4.4 Hourly Supply and Demand Levels:
Intraday traders will appreciate the Hourly Supply and Demand Levels feature. The indicator automatically identifies these levels based on the highest and lowest values of the past 10 bars. Customize the number of levels displayed, choose line colors and styles, and even show prices associated with these levels.
4.5 ATR Expected Moves:
The ATR Expected Moves feature calculates expected price moves based on the Average True Range (ATR). Customize the lookback length and multipliers. Extend lines, choose colors and line styles, and display prices. Incorporating ATR Expected Moves helps set realistic profit targets and manage risk effectively.
4.6 Futures Levels:
For futures traders, the indicator provides specific levels for the Midnight Open, London Open, Asian Open, and the 8:30am EST level. These levels act as potential reference points, aiding in identifying intraday opportunities and aligning trades with global market dynamics.
Section 5: Customizing the Indicator to Fit Your Trading Style:
The Supply and Demand Deluxe indicator offers customization options to align with your trading style and preferences.
5.1 Adjusting Input Parameters:
Fine-tune the indicator by adjusting parameters such as the number of levels plotted, lookback length, multipliers for ATR calculations, and more. Experiment with different settings to better suit your trading strategy.
5.2 Customizing Visual Elements:
Customize line colors, styles, and extension options to enhance aesthetics and readability. Choose colors, line styles, and decide whether to extend lines to the left, right, or both. This level of customization ensures a visually pleasing trading experience.
Section 6: Practical Applications and Trading Strategies:
In this section, we explore practical applications and trading strategies using the Supply and Demand Deluxe indicator.
6.1 Identifying Key Supply and Demand Levels:
The indicator helps identify key supply and demand levels across different timeframes. Analyzing these levels in conjunction with other technical analysis tools can identify high-probability trade setups.
6.2 Using Pivots for Reference Points:
Pivots, both daily and weekly, serve as crucial reference points. Consider price reactions around these pivots and consider them in conjunction with supply and demand levels to gain valuable insights into market dynamics.
6.3 Incorporating ATR Expected Moves in Risk Management:
Use the ATR Expected Moves feature for risk management. Set realistic profit targets and define appropriate stop-loss levels based on expected price moves. This statistical framework helps adjust position sizing and manage risk effectively.
Section 7: Tips and Tricks for Maximizing the Indicator's Potential:
To enhance your trading experience with the Supply and Demand Deluxe indicator, consider these tips and tricks:
7.1 Leveraging Different Timeframes:
Analyze supply and demand dynamics across different timeframes. Use higher timeframes for overall market context and lower timeframes for precise entries and exits. Combining multiple timeframes improves analysis accuracy.
7.2 Combining Multiple Timeframes:
Combine the Supply and Demand Deluxe indicator with other technical analysis tools such as moving averages, oscillators, or chart patterns. This synergy provides confirmation signals and increases the probability of successful trades.
Section 8: Conclusion:
Congratulations on completing this comprehensive tutorial on the Supply and Demand Deluxe indicator! We've covered the fundamental concepts, explored features and functionalities, and discussed practical applications and trading strategies. Experiment with different settings, customize visual elements, and integrate the indicator into your trading plan. As you gain experience, you'll be well-equipped to make informed trading decisions. Keep exploring, stay disciplined, and may the markets bring you success!






















