Trading Pivot Points with an "incomplete" Parallel ChannelUNIUSD. When this pattern forms, expect price to drop. In this example, expect UNISWAP To Drop 391 units. Entry at 5.336; Exit at 4.945.
Pivot Points
How To Enter A Bear Cryptocurrency Market Entry after price pulls back to Pivot Point and Channel Resistance Level and forms a rejection candlestick.
XLM/BTC Position Trading. Zones. Money management. PsychologyLogarithm. Time interval—1 month. The main trend since the beginning of trading.
Coin in coinmarketcap: Stellar.
Top trading pairs to bitcoin have significant liquidity. In position trading, you need to work in portions from support/resistance level zones with a predetermined size distribution.
Unlike pairs to the dollar, pumps/dumps are smaller in % ratio due to the % rise/fall of bitcoin itself. If bitcoin is cashed in the market, profits remain the same. Hence, the smaller % is illusory in nature.
BTC instead of stabelcoins .
In such pairs, the “money” is bitcoin. Consequently, even premature selling (there shouldn't be any, since the position is allocated in advance) forgives mistakes, since you get bitcoins instead of USD or stabelcoins. Currently, many stabelcoins are losing their $1 peg, meaning they are devalued. Trading in a bitcoin pair reduces that risk.
Work on such pairs is suitable foremost for medium and large participants of the market. It is not rational to work with a small amount in such a time/profit perspective.
Money (crypto assets) security Money management.
This is key. You don't need to hold a large position on the exchange for this kind of trading! Why keep coins or stabelcoins on exchange if you make transactions quite rarely, only large movements. You understand beforehand when it will happen and in what price zone you are going to buy/sell.
That's what all the big market participants who don't take part in price formation do. When you need to buy or sell, you transfer the assets to the exchange and sell or buy on the market. You withdraw right away. If the amount is large enough, you should do this procedure in installments, preferably on several exchanges.
At one time I worked for a long time (several years) on DOGE/BTC pair, when this coin was (scam, joke coin) nobody was interested in it, unlike the current time of hype. There is a trading idea of the principle of this work in Russian 2019.
In this work, you work only in the secondary trend, from the main support/resistance zones, considering the development of the trend. You absolutely do not need to be interested in crypto news, the opinion of the majority and so on. You can look at the chart even once every few months.
What's more, you also don't need to know the future highs and lows of the next cycle (though for traders, they are easily identifiable). You work piecemeal from the zones. You know in advance where and by how much you buy or sell. Locally you can trade 20-30% of your coins, so you will have extra profit. But you don't have to.
The price goes down — good for you.
The price goes up — good for you.
Trading is guessing market probabilities of price movements. Algorithmic thinking according to a trading strategy, devoid of any emotion, makes money. Anything else loses it in any market. In other words, you must initially be prepared for more likely (in your opinion) and less likely outcomes. Know under what conditions you buy and under what conditions you sell.
Buying/selling in portions of coins according to predetermined zones.
You work from the average recruitment price and from the average selling price in portions, similar to how large market participants work on the BTC/USD pair. You never go completely into cache or similarly into coins. Only the % ratio of coins to money changes depending on the market cycle.
Work from the average buy/sell price (of money and coins) on a global scale (large time frame), without any "what if this time will be different". If it does, it's none of your business.
Know in advance where you will buy more in case of drawdown, and where you will sell in case of pumping. Again, without the "It could be different this time" and emotional component.
Sell and buy assets a little bit before everyone else in the market in installments, "not knowing the exact future," even if you think you know it. This will keep you from making mistakes.
Coin trading in the local trend.
By trading part of a position locally, you will always have money from profits to buy (averaging the main position) in case of so-called local "black swans". This work is not mandatory, but desirable.
It helps some people a lot psychologically, especially if the initial entry into the asset was erroneous and the price dropped significantly. By increasing the number of coins of local work, you thereby reduce your previous losses or even come out in profit over time. Again, you don't have to work this way, but it is advisable.
The smaller goals you set, the more you end up earning on the distance .
An untouchable supply of coins and cache in case of market force of circumstances .
Always keep in mind the possibility of a “black swan,” even if it seems impossible. You always have 20-30% of your position depending on the cycle (money/coins) in case of force of circumstances.
Bearish—a “black swan” sell-off under the channel support zone (happens very rarely).
Bullish—the final hammer madness over the channel resistance (happens very rarely just in pairs with bitcoin because in a bull cycle bitcoin grows 5-8 times on average).
Remember that in the accumulation phase in most cases there is a residual price zone of capitulation, super fear. It is usually accompanied by a “black swan. When everyone gets rid of their assets out of fear. You, on the contrary, buy with a grid of orders with a large range, without emotion.
Consequently, always have a pre-allocated cache (or from the profits of a local trade) if such a trading situation is realized in the market. Turn someone else's negative emotions into your own profits.
You should always act according to your trading plan and be ready for any market situation, even an extremely unlikely one.
bull market highs zone (channel resistance).
At the peak of the market, you should already have more than 60-70% in bitcoin (cache) for the next market cycle. 10-20% of the rest of the position should be in a stop loss to protect profits. This is more rational if the last spurt occurs.
Coins sold for bitcoin can be held in bitcoin in a cold wallet (not rational if the overall market trend has reversed). You can also similarly sell on the market for cash (be sure to withdraw from the exchange), or put a stop-loss to protect profits, in case the market makes another spurt (additional profit on the BTC/USD pair).
Always sell when the price rises significantly (pumping). Protect your profits with a stop.
Always sell a substantial portion of your coins with a grid of pending orders during an active pumping phase. Another option is not to sell, but to protect your profits with a stop loss.
Bear market minima. (lower channel zone).
In a bear market, the lower the price falls, the more market participants wait even lower. Everything is similar to the distribution, only mirrored in the opposite direction. This illogical inadequacy of people is especially noticeable at the "peak of fear." Before that super minimum (there may not be one), you need to gain most of the coin position in advance, but be prepared for anything...
Again, you must know in advance where and for what % of the allocated amount you buy coins and under what conditions. There must be discipline in everything and determine in advance what your further actions will be in accordance with your trading algorithm, rather than an emotional component.
Always have a certain percentage of money that is comfortable for you in any dominant trend and phase of the market.
Bull Market .
In a bull phase, you should accumulate a large percentage of cache (stabelcoins) at the expense of profits.
Bear market .
In the bear phase (altcoins from -90% and below) you should accumulate in portions of cryptocurrencies you are interested in.
I'm sure most people have it the other way around. In a bullish phase, most collect promising cryptocurrencies bought near price highs (hype, everything goes up in value).
In the bear phase, on the contrary, most market participants load most of their trading depots into staplecoins (fear, everything is falling in price, expectation of inadequate floor prices). They are driven by the desire to buy back the lowest price of the trend, right before the reversal. The lower the market falls, the more most go from fear to stablcoins.
Trade market cycles, not individual cryptocurrencies. Because their price strictly follows market cycles, but not the other way around.
Options for the development of price movement on the pair XLM/BTC. .
I will show the percentages of the following 3 zones of this channel, depending on where and under what conditions the reversal of this secondary trend will occur (a downward wedge is formed).
1 variant of reversal. Candlestick chart. Butterfly formation, the wedge is not embodied.
1 reversal variant. Line chart.
2 reversal variant. Candlestick chart.
Version 2 of reversal. Line chart.
3 reversal variant. Candlestick chart. Full formation of the descending wedge on the classic TA.
3 reversal variant. Line chart.
Be aware of trends and accumulation/distribution zones .
Remember that a bear market, like a bull market, will not last forever. Where there is supposedly an end, there is always a new beginning.
Everything is subject to cycles. This is especially true of financial markets. Every cycle is the same to the point of triviality. Be guided by trends, that is, by accumulation/distribution zones, when they start and end.
Bitcoin — as more than a decade of cycle history shows, this is from -70-82% of the secondary trend high. This does not mean that the subsequent cycle will have the same percentage trend value, but there is a possibility.
Alts average -90-96% and lower depending on the liquidity of the crypto coin. The lower the liquidity (people involvement), the higher the risk. You should also understand that the lower the liquidity, the higher the slippage at “peak fear” can be. Many altcoins, especially those with low liquidity, do not survive to the next cycle.
Also be aware of market capitulation shocks as a consequence of so-called “black swans.” It won't necessarily happen, but the possibility always exists.
The price of something that is worthless can be turned into absolutely anything on the market, to the point of inadequacy. It's not a real commodity whose value people understand.
Psychology. Indicators of distribution/accumulation zones in cycles.
Allocation zones —resetting to “hamsters” (fools or inexperienced market participants) is expensive.
In a bull market, the higher the price rises, the higher the expectations. Up to inadequacy in the last reset zone in the distribution. “Hamsters” buy very expensive “promising coins” near trending price highs (marketing, information noise) and wait even higher.
Accumulation Zones — Large market participants buy on the cheap from “hamsters”, constantly scaring them with various bikes and imitations. There is a massive build-up of negative news.
Hamsters sell cheap and wait for an even lower price. No matter how low the price is, it cannot satisfy people like them.
In other words, their thinking is sharpened to the opposite. Projecting onto trade what they are in life. Anything to do with money reinforces this effect. Buy expensive, sell cheap. Don't inherit this tendency of those who lose money in the market.
As a rule, most people don't buy at flea markets; they are afraid. They wait for those who should be selling to them to say, "Fools, it's time to buy in the very expensive.")
What matters is how much you earn when you're right, and how much you lose when you're wrong. You should know these potential values initially before you make a deal. If you can't determine them, or the risk is too high — refrain from trading.
Immunity to guessing lows and highs .
Most fools do this in all cycles. Forget the hamster concept of selling at the peak or buying at the low. Leave it to those who are destitute and will be even poorer because of it.
Again, it's all in the head. What a person is like in reality is what a person is like in trading. Kill your greed.
For example, in all bitcoin cycles (I have my third), the so-called hamsters (fuel) and pseudo traders (fuel) always want to guess the highs and lows of the price. The question is, why do we need to do this? The answer lies in the thinking of the poor and lack of understanding of simple logical things.
The ability to wait for your goals.
Be patient. Cycles, both local and global, tend to recur with their own time interval, which cannot be identical to the previous one. Consequently, only the patient earns.
Learn to be out of the market,
In areas of uncertainty, if the market doesn't let you make money, why burn time in vain? This time can be used with benefit both for yourself and for others. Take a rest, read an interesting book, go somewhere, do something useful. The main thing is not to immerse yourself on the Internet.
It is important how much you earn when you are right and how much you lose when you are wrong. Initially, before entering a trade, you should know these potential values. If you can't determine them, or the risk is too high, then refrain from trading.
Treat the numbers on the screen as numbers, not as money.
No equation with the value of "what you can buy with that amount of money on the screen." That is, you have to identify with the percentage of profit/loss, not the money — the amount of profit/loss.
When -5% to $100 is $5, and you are not afraid of such a loss.
But, for example, when your balance is over $10 million, then -5% would be $0.5 million. For a fat hamster, that's a tragedy. For a big trader, it is a calculated risk. The drawdown can be much more significant, but the risk is always considered and accepted in advance. In the end, the profit more than compensates for such a drawdown. I think you understand the logic. It allows you to understand whether you are ready to work with large sums or not.
I purposely wrote a large amount as an example to provide a clear contrast because everyone is ready to lose temporarily, namely temporarily $5?
But $500,000 is an unimaginable amount for most people. But to be ready to work with big sums, you need that discipline and attitude towards money at the very beginning of your hobby of trading. Everyone wants to work with large sums in the future when they trade, or am I wrong?
As a rule, most market participants cannot overcome this barrier because of their "lust for money" and identification: the numbers on the screen are real money, not just profit/loss % figures.
A trader's behavior in the market is a result of his thinking. Your way of thinking affects your habits, and your habits are what makes or loses money in the market.
Margin is bad .
The exception (not necessarily) is an adequate short position with minimum leverage and risk limitation.
If you want to steadily earn in the market and never get nervous - don't use margin at all. Absolutely never. As a rule, the poor use margin, and the poorer they are, the higher the leverage. Perhaps that is the secret of their poverty. I'm not talking about margin in the first place, I'm talking about the mindset that generates higher margin leverage, driving the risk/profit ratio to idiocy, but that's the way it is.
Exchanges don't like those who make money and adore those who might lose money trying to get rich.
Margin trading with leverage is only for experienced traders. It should be taboo for novice traders.
Diversification of storage and trading places .
This is very relevant to position trading. I wrote about it above. Don't trade or store your coins in one place.
"Russian or South Korean hackers attacked a top exchange, all cryptocurrency stolen." This is sarcasm, but this is exactly the kind of FUD for fools you will see when they just steal cryptocurrency from exchanges under the guise of such a tale. The made-up story doesn't matter, what matters is that the people behind the cryptocurrency exchanges will steal cryptocurrency from you, wearing the skin of an injured sheep).
The safety of your money (including cryptocurrencies) depends only on you, not on chance. Anything that seems random is not. If you always rely on chance instead of your mind, you are doomed. The will of chance will shadow you and haunt and empty your pocket time after time. You will always be at the forefront of the victims of your carelessness and self-confidence.
Always keep some of your positions in cold storage .
Keep some of your positions, even if you are very actively trading, on a cold or hardware wallet (preferably several). It should be at least 30% of your total deposit. This percentage should vary during certain phases of the market. In accumulation zones, most of the position should be out of the exchanges.
Diversification of stubblecoins (profits) and their blockchain storage.
Very relevant because in the future, one liquid stabelcoin like UST (Luna) will be zeroed out (disposal of money on a large scale). Probably, many people have understood this for a long time, but do not believe it will be implemented. Not only that, but most altcoins will evaporate at the moment. Yes, the probability, as always, is no greater. But if that probability is there, it is rational to take steps to make sure it doesn't hurt you. Diversification as well as swift action during an event is the best defense against something like this.
Stable coins are always a risk. Keep this diversification in mind, both by their own varieties and by blockchain if you are storing them on a hardware wallet.
Unfortunately, this is a risk you will have to accept and live with, as using stablcoins is a component of trading.
Diversify such assets not only when you are out of the market waiting to trade, but even when you are actively trading. That is, by using different stabelcoins when trading the same cryptocurrency (e.g., BTC) you reduce risk. For example, BTC/USDC, BTC /USDT or BTC/BUSD.
Any stabelcoin is an altcoin whose value (stability) is based only on people's belief in its stability .
Totally uninterested in the opinion of the crowd .
The crowd is always wrong. The majority always loses in the market. Otherwise, it would be impossible to make money in the market. Therefore, by being interested in and listening to the trend of the opinions of most market participants, you can unnoticeably lean towards the opinion and understanding of those who initially have to lose. Are you prepared for losses? No? Then why should you be?
Another option is to use the opinion of most market participants to track market trends. If you are well-versed in psychology, this will be helpful. If not, you yourself may fall prey to opinions unnoticed.
Everything unpredictable is the fate of only absolutely predictable people, it always was, is and will be .
Don't be interested in cryptocurrency news.
The chart takes everything into account, including the release of "tales for fools." All crypto news is created for price direction and nothing more.
Small-scale news for influencing fools (their logical scare/satisfaction actions) to locally influence the price. Large scale news and events to globally influence the trend and the market as a whole.
If you can understand and read between the lines, understanding what the manipulator is trying to achieve, then you can use the news background in your trading strategy. If not, and you are not a good psychologist - completely ignore the flow of information.
The positive and negative emotions of others in the market generate volatility, which is your earning wave. Ride it.
Don't mess with anonymous fools.
Appreciate your time. Don't pay attention if someone criticizes you without being constructive, or wants to impose their perspective without arguments of rightness. Such commenters are usually people with a very low social status in reality, they are trying to assert themselves through the internet in an anonymous world.
Be immune to such losers, they are the ones who want you to doubt yourself and accept their perspective. The more bile, the more anonymous cries from.
Understand that only such people have time to correspond and “spout bile” on the anonymous internet. As a rule, these are immature individuals or conventionally "mature," but with the mindset and interests of a teenager.
Don't waste your time on the vacuous or psychological aberrations of flawed Internet characters. Make good use of your time.
The behavior of people in financial markets is a projection of who they are in real life. That is, their positive and negative psychological qualities.
Don't be a trading junkie. Don't waste time.
Don't waste time. Both for meaningless Internet price guessing, and for round-the-clock trading.
Mindless guesses.
The idiocy of the crowd. Trying to guess highs or lows that are logically understandable. When all scenarios are clear and understandable. Do not turn into idiots from the "where the price of bitcoin will go" sect. Everything is always the same in every cycle.
You must decide for yourself initially (after spending several hours) on what conditions and prices you will buy this or that cryptocurrency and at what prices to sell. Have a more likely and less likely scenario. Be ready for any incarnation. Do not complicate simple logical things with the stupidity of fortune-tellers mixed with your greed.
The basis of trading is your trading strategy , that is, your knowledge that you put into practice in symbiosis with risk management , that is, your manner of taking on take risks in transactions and manage money.
To paraphrase, initially you need to understand how much you will earn when you are right, and how much you will lose (hit stop or averaging if a less likely scenario is realized) when you are wrong. In such cases, it is absolutely not necessary to know the exact price of the low or high of the trend, leave that to the idiots.
Trading 24/7.
I will write short and clear. Money without life is not needed. In everything there must be adequacy.
Knowing the instinctively more likely behavior of people (the psychology of mass behavior) in a given situation, as well as programming people's behavior (what is right / wrong, how to act in a given situation according to the rules) and creating the same situations, allows easy to manage "potentially uncontrollable behavioral chaos".
Psychology. Be yourself - don't go against yourself.
For traders Work with your trading algorithms based on your knowledge and experience, not on emotions.
For those who are faced with the fact that trading constantly "hit the head" . Become an investor.
Carefully study the cryptocurrencies you are interested in and decide whether to invest in them or not. Divide the money needed to invest in each cryptocurrency into several parts. Buy in areas of potential price reversal. After purchase, send your coins to a hardware wallet.
Stay away from your cryptocurrencies until the new bull cycle (peak will be in 2025). Also, before the big bull cycle, there will be an intermediate one by a relatively small percentage, as in 2019-2020. Don't forget to sell some of the coins to buy them back much cheaper.
It is also worth paying attention to those cryptocurrencies that are included (blockchains and protocols) in the development of CBDC and comply with the future ISO 20022 standard (already in March). XLM is one of them.
Trade Pivot Points and Parallel Channels with 3 PointsWatch for pull backs to the pivot point level. Next, use the parallel channel tool to determine entry points and exit points. In this example, connect two higher lows and one higher high to create a "potential" Parallel Channel. The intersection of the horizontal level and diagonal level with pin bar makes this special trade set up a high probability trade.
The Best Pull Backs To Trade (Part One)Price pulled back to pivot point level 0.67. Price retraced 50%. Pin Bar candlestick formed at 50% retracement. Open Price and Close Price is "near" 50% retracement level as well at the pivot point level. Candlestick wick protrudes through the pivot point level and retracement level.
This is an ideal condition to enter a trade position using pivot point indicator, fibonacci retracement tool, and pin bar candlestick.
Trade Pull Backs To The Pivot Point Level Wait for a pin bar or rejection candlestick to form on a pull back to the Pivot Point. Next, enter a market execution order, stop order, and/or limit order.
Special Entry Patterns - IPO'sJS-TechTrading Masterclass : Special Entry Patterns - IPO's
In a previous tutorial, I have explained the general characteristics of a perfect buy point. In this tutorial, we will look at IPO's (Initial Public Offerings) and discuss how to identify primary bases.
IPO's coming out of primary bases can make huge price moves - let's discuss how to find the next monster mover, similar to what stocks like Amazon could achieve after their Initial Public Offering phase.
Perfect Entry Points – IPO’s – The Primary Base
When it comes to investing in IPO stocks, new issues don't play by the usual rules.
Companies making initial public offerings draw a lot of investor attention. That often results in unusual and brand-new chart patterns. Volatility can rise as investors size up demand for the new stock. Yet there are opportunities in these cases, if you can spot the correct characteristics amid the price-and-volume action.
The framework of a good IPO base is simple. The decline from peak to low usually doesn't top 20%, but the most volatile markets have produced declines of up to 50%. The length is often less than five weeks and can be as short as seven days. These two factors alone make IPO bases wayward cousins compared with proper bases, such as the cup with handle and flat base, which need at least five to seven weeks of work.
In an IPO base, the pattern typically starts within 25 days of the stock's first day of trading. Know the important similarities with regular bases. For example, the buy point is drawn by taking the prior high and adding 10 cents. The price gain on the breakout should be strong.
There are ways to evaluate these blind spots, however. Important factors include seeing a shallow correction within the base during normal market conditions, a large increase in price and a close near session highs on the breakout day, and heavy volume on the breakout day and week.
Also, the stock should generally form the base above its IPO price.
Example - ServiceNow (NOW)
The business software company, went public in June 2012, at 18 a share and has built its primary base during the period from the initial offering to April 2013 when the stock developed its first perfect buy point.
JS-Masterclass #7: Trade AnalysisJS-Masterclass #7: Confirmations & Violations
In previous tutorials, we have covered the stock selection process and the identification of low risk, high probability entry point following constructive consolidation patterns.
Now that we are in the trade, the question comes up what to look for. What makes the price action healthy so that you rather stay in the trade and what are the alarm signals to look for?
The Founder of the Berger Funds and Stock Market Legend Bill Berger said:
“I buy tennis balls and sell eggs.”
What does that mean?
‘Tennis-Balls’ are characterized as follows: after a breakout under high volume out of a constructive consolidation pattern, most stock will pull back after a couple of days. This pullback for ‘Tennis-Balls’ normally happens under low volume and is followed by a strong price increase under heavy volume. Just like a tennis ball immediately pooping back after a drop to the ground.
‘Eggs’ are characterized as follows: The above mentioned pullback after a breakout happens under high volume and the stock is not able to recover from this pullback. Just like an egg which drops down to the ground.
What you do want to see after you have entered a trade:
• The trade is immediately profitable
• Good volume characteristics (high volume on up-days and low volume on down days)
• High volume rallies – low volume pullbacks
• Follow through buying (2-3 days or more) – institutional vs. retail
• More up days than down days
• More good closes than bad closes
• Look for ‘Tennis Ball Action’ after a ‘Natural Reaction’. A ‘Natural Reaction’ can be considered as a pullback under low volume following a breakout.
What you do not want to see after you have entered a trade:
• Squat directly after breakout
• Low volume out of a base - high volume back in
• 3 or 4 lower lows w/o supportive action
• More down days than up days
• More bad closes than good closes
• A close below the 20d MA on high volume
• A close below the 50d MA on high volume
• Full retracement of a good size gain
• Wide and volatile price action
• Outside day: high is higher than high of the previous day but closes below the low if the previous day. This happens on higher volume versus the previous day
Friday's Asian Range Concept Study in CryptoICT's guide to Friday's Asian Range Concept in relation to a normal Monday's Trading. The accuracy is quite astounding. At exactly 5x the Asian Range of Friday in confluence to any Price Area of Interest and Monday's Daily Bias. It makes price prediction almost quite effortless.
QNT//USDT Simple rules of risk management and trading strategiesCoin in the Coinmarket: Quant
This coin is for work as an example no more, now there are many similar ones with similar trading situations.
On the chart showed the trend, the figures that are formed, the support / resistance levels.
The figures show the potential entry points in case of a breakthrough or holding the support/resistance zones depending on your trading strategy.
I cannot know how you trade or what strategy you use. You have to adapt my information to your trading strategy and first of all to your risk management.
Some simple tips for your work:
1) I advise you not to be like everyone else and not to expect super target. The target must be adequate. The smaller you set target, the more you will earn at a distance. When the price of a coin is rising through most of the volume, it is advisable to work locally up to +80%, so you will always have money to re-buy from the profits.
2) Complex % (using volatility) does its job. It can be used (the principle) not only on one coin (accumulation), but also on several coins without paying attention to the name of the coin (to accumulate profits from coin to coin). They should not be very many.
3) Remember—the level is not a line, but a zone. It is rational to work with a grid of orders.
4) If possible, protect your profits with a trivial stop loss. But do not place it too close to the main intraday volatility zone.
5) Do not work with a large number of coins, there is no need, they are all the same. Their rise in price depends primarily on the general situation on the market and in the world.
6) Take into account the phases of the market, including local character. Creators of individual crypto-funds will not raise the price against the general trend if people are afraid to buy at that time. Playing against the trend is more the exception to the rule.
There is a time to buy, a time to sell, and a time to watch. The third phase should take you the longest. Most people are only in phase one, regardless of the overall trend. Don't be like that…
7) Trade with your thought-out algorithms (trading strategy + risk management + experience), not with emotions. Those who lose money in the market—trade with emotions and ill-considered fantasies – desires.
The basis of your profit is your trading strategy and compliance with risk management based on your experience
Recommendations for trading strategies:
1) If you work in shorts, be sure to put stops and use adequate minimum leverage. Margin trading is a nightmare for an inexperienced and very greedy market participant.
2) When working in the spot on medium liquid coins, it is more rational to wait for a breakthrough in the downtrend and on the pullback after the momentum with a significant (important) buyer volume to enter the market. It's better to buy a bit more expensive, but with more confidence that the trend has changed. But, it is not a panacea, can after a breakthrough and holding the price a certain time—the continuation of the downtrend. Options for solving the problem:
a) stop loss.
b) Money cushion.
c) The first and second options in place.
3) If you really want to buy some crypto-coin before the break of a trend (you are afraid of not having enough time or you "know the exact future”), then don't buy with all the amount allocated to this coin. The first purchase (especially before a trend break) should not have a big % of the main planned volume.
a) If the price goes against your initial purchase and decreases—work martingale from the specified levels (in addition to the position) to average the average purchase.
b) If the price rises strongly by impulse, and you bought a small planned amount, then there are two options in this case:
1) Wait for a pullback and on the pullback to finish (but still not for the whole amount, you should have at least 20-30% cache at any pumping).
2) the second option, if the price has strongly increased and there is no substantial rollback—work with the volume, that is, and the rest of the money allocated to similar coins, which have not had time to grow in price.
EURHUF - Good Example of using Pivot PointsI've been trading for over 7 years and I've come to love pivot points! I see pivot points being used constantly and i just wanted to show you EURHUF on a 15 minute chart as an example. When the US market opened they made big moves around yesterday's price level until it hit the first support level. I use pivots to scalp the market so i can compound my longs and shorts to make up for any losses that may have happened!
Pivots are usually only used in day or swing trading on the 1 minute, 5 min and 15 min charts. Zoom out to multiple time frames to check the trend and then take orders only in the direction of the trend to have some confluence going on. Don't just take trades blindly without fully being aware of what's going on. Make sure you read all and any economic news that is out there!!
NOTE: Pivots don't always work but for the most part you can see them being used here in real time.
(This is just a guide to show you how pivots are used, this is not a trading signal)
I don't mind sharing because i want all of us 5% to make some so the big can loose some :)
DESCENDING CHANNEL - Range Trading StrategyHello my Fellow TraderZ,
Today this is not any Trade idea but a TUTORIAL on how to Trade the RANGE or the CHANNEL.
This is simple, safe, profitable and straight forward Price Action strategy.
Here we are taking the chart of US Govt. Bond 10Y-yield. This is the perfect setup of DECENDING CHANNEL on MONTHLY chart. No time bound you can trade at any TIMEFRAMES, but Higher Time Frames are more reliable.
You see, to draw any Trendline we need minimum 2/3 touch points.
Whenever the price touches the Trendline, never open any Trade in RUSH, wait, see the kind of candles forming at Touch Points (at LOWER TL = BULLISH PA, at UPPER TL = BEARISH PA). PA = Price Action. This should be coupled with the VOLUME.
Notice the S/R areas, where price gives multiple hits before bounce or rejection. This will give you extra boost as these horizontal S/R are more reliable than Dynamic S/R. Also these areas could be your Pivots to make ENTRY(incase price doesn't hit the channel Trendlines) or TP Targets.
Look at the Percentage(%) wise gains simply following the channel(BUY THE LOW, SELL THE HIGH). Well I've just mentioned the BUYS, you can add the short positions also.
Until the price is in channel you can take Multiple Trades both LONGing and SHORTing the market, unless the channel Breaks. This is the beauty of Range Trading. Similarly you can trade ASCENDING CHANNEL/WEDGES as well.
NOTE : PRICE ACTION is majorly important in the Game of Trading.
If you like this content, kindly give a FOLLOW & BOOST to me. Also COMMENT to bring more such #educational contents.
Sorry if its a bit Lengthy post.
Happy Trading . CHEERS!!!
Learn How to Trade Fibonacci Levels | Full Guide 📚
In this short video, I will teach you to apply Fibonacci retracement tool.
We will discuss the common levels to apply.
I will show you real market examples and we will discuss important theory.
❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section.
Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
The worst trading strategy for HARSI or any other indicator.**Not gonna lie. This is a 20+ minute video because I almost lost it, and I went on a RANT! The way I see people just blindly accepting and using ridiculous strategies on indicators is just awful.**
I have come across countless TV, YouTube, and other online sourced videos filled with misinformation, and I will make it part of my mission to call out these ridiculous strategies.
I just cant sit idlily by while you guys blow your accounts away making bad trades off of horrible information, based from someone who obviously is NOT a real day trader.
With that, in todays video, with my brain on fire and my mouth being held back, I am going to cover the strategy I keep seeing here on YouTube.
Its one that people claim "The developer told them to use."
The strategy is for the original #HARSI (#heikenashi #harsi )
I'm here to tell you, that i have spoken with the original developer a number of times and NOT ONCE did they say this strategy is theirs or that they use it.
I'm also going to give you a very quick run through of a proper way to use the new version of the HARSI called the #CSCHARSI or (#coffeshop #Crypto #HARSI )
Download the indicator here:
My Tradingview Profile:
www.tradingview.com
Break-Even Point Calculation
Break-Even Point (BEP)
1. The break-even point is the point at which total cost and total revenue are equal.
2. Meaning, there is no loss or gain.
3. Potential investors in a business not only want to know the return to expect on their investments but also the point when they will realize this return.
Calculating the Breakeven Point (BEP)
1. Current Total Investment = (1*BTC@49348.17) + (2*BTC@39342.32) + (4*BTC@21117.39) + (8*BTC@10357.35) = 295361.17
2. Breakeven Point = Current Total Investment / (Total Number of BTC) = 295361.17 / 15 = 19690.74
how to be profitable like #wizard markethello guys
what do you add to above items?
DO YOU AGREE OR NOT?
do you becaome professional trader?
How Market Manipulation WorksEver find yourself agreeing with someone who complains about rampant market manipulation, even though you don't really know how it happens or where it comes from? If so, do not feel embarrassed; the person complaining about it probably doesn't know either.
The truth is that the practice is so blatant and routine these days that it hides in plain sight. That, or it has simply become a modern taboo among those in power because widespread exposure of it could pose as a significant risk to said power.
Either way, it has gotten so ridiculous lately that it needs to stop before it potentially damages the all-important trust dynamic that maintains the "free" system's status quo.
Thus, let us begin this enlightening discussion with identifying who the direct culprits are.
These would be just about every financial institution that operates in some form as a Market Maker (MM) of weekly equity options. Yes - even your friendly mainstream broker that you had assumed was rooting for your financial success. Basically, if you can purchase weekly put options from them, they are part of the problem.
While this seems absurd, let's just discuss how markets get manipulated before you dismiss the idea entirely.
Markets can get manipulated through any number of sketchy practices. Just refer to the FINRA website and you will find terms for such practices, as well as laws governing their misuse. (Like when crude oil futures reach real negative levels, lol). But, the most tangibly-felt form of manipulation occurs in the way that is depicted in the chart above: by preventing markets from breaking out in either direction, particularly on days when options are set to expire. Quadruple Witching days, for example, are named as such because of how "supernatural" price movements tend to be throughout their sessions. This is complete nonsense, of course, since they move according to how the culprits want them to move - within a pre-defined range that is designed to suck traders into false-breakouts only to close very near the daily opening-cross.
The process of such a corrupt practice is known as price-pinning and it is at the core of every inexplicable market observation that seems uncannily perfect - like when markets only reveal their true direction during the last singular minute of trading. Note the extreme volume abnormality underlying the last-minute candle of today's E-mini session for a perfect example of this.
Despite what is commonly accepted, it is actually the case that MMs are essentially omnipotent, insofar as they can, and do, directly determine the opening and closing prices of individual issues - even on smaller timeframes such as the hourly or 15-minute scales. On most trading days, it is even possible for them to control outcomes on entire indices because of how influential options have become in today's market environment. The really serious problem with this is that it causes markets to crash wildly leading to widespread loss of wealth and subsequent economic severities.
How does too much power in free market system lead to the system crashing? It is because MMs are human beings and are therefore prone to making emotionally-charged mistakes; like getting cocky during times of persistently scarce volatility.
What ends up happening is that on very rare occasions, even bigger market players (like managers of huge pension funds that can affect markets absolutely) decide to unwind their long-held pure-equity positions accumulated over several years in a discreet manner. All the while, greedy/overconfident MMs continue to sell extreme quantities of put options to the public, thinking that there is no possible way that they'd ever need to pay for them at expiration. They'd be correct about this 99.99% of the time, and so they fail to realize how dangerous of a situation their in and how stupid it is to blindly sell such large quantities of out-the-money puts on the open market. The selling is so violent at the point of realization that MMs have no choice but to sell everything at once - even if everyone else suffers from the resultant market crash.
At this point, you might be wondering how this rare scenario has anything to do with the prevalent practice of price-pinning.
It relates because what normally happens when MMs get ahead of themselves in terms of how many puts they short on an expiration day is that they end up offsetting their risk via the mass purchasing of call options as the expiration nears. The calls become cheap enough that the entire cost of this process of risk hedging is pennies when considering the profits generated from selling the much more expensive time-heavy puts to the public. It is also a much more practical way to cover, which is why markets rarely make significant moves (especially downward) on Fridays. The process of MMs selling out-of-the-money puts, which they knowingly perceive as riskless for an exorbitant premium only to turn around and use call options to prevent prices from moving for the rest of the day IS THE MANIPULATION.
To reiterate, what I am saying is that the common form of market manipulation that most people arbitrarily place their blame on is the weekly Market Making process of covering themselves every Friday (and sometimes Wednesdays and Mondays as well) that is the de facto Manipulation that I am trying to convey in the chart above.
The reason why this process should be acknowledged as an illegal manipulative practice, rather than just some existential side-effect that comes with ever-evolving complex market systems is because:
1) It is enabling large institutions to sell grossly mispriced derivatives en masse with no intention of realizing the equivalent risk
2) It is a literal form of manipulation, as per the definition of the word "manipulation"
3) Once understood, it becomes blatantly obvious that markets lack the freedom that has always been pre-supposed, which will eventually change the nature of our
market to something non-sensical, like the concept of equal-outcome investments (you cannot grow your wealth in a market that grows everyone else's wealth at the
same pace, since that is just pure inflation).
To finish this lesson, I will use the chart of yesterday's price/volume action of the S&P futures as an example of how the manipulation of price-pinning can be applied practically:
1) Start with the obvious outlier that is the selling volume incurred at 3:59 p.m. yesterday
2) What this represents is the true bearish sentiment that should have resulted in a panic-sell to close the week
3) The reason why this panic sell never occurred is because MMs had bought very cheap call options starting around noon
4) Specifically, as soon as MMs feared that sentiment had turned bearish enough to threaten their short-put liability, they started covering with calls
5) This can be seen in the upper half of the chart, on the second breakdown, which notched the LOD
6) We can rule out the possibility of a major support bounce because the LOD is simply not a major point of support even if near the 4500 level.
7) This can be corroborated by the lack of historical price action around such high levels of the S&P. To naturally prevent a breakdown of this nature would require a more
historically tested level of support, in my opinion
8) Manipulation resulting from too much leverage and greedy MMs created a very tiny snapshot of the wrongdoing, which is captured full-circle in the volume reading of the last minute of the session.
I hope I was able to present this entire idea in a sensible way. Manipulative practices are very hard to pinpoint, prove and define, which is partially why they can persist for months on end. On a personal note, I really hate this type of market environment because it sucks to trade and limits the possibility of what makes markets fun in the first place. Ironically, I am sort of doing the very kind of complaining that I made fun of in the opening paragraph - the only difference is that I am certain about what is causing my frustration.
-Pig-Police
CME_MINI:ES1!
AMEX:SPY
SP:SPX
CURRENCYCOM:US500
DJ:DWCPF
Pivots continued...So we continue on from the previous pivot post, I have now worked out all the levels and shown you the formula to do this for yourself. These levels like I said in previous post are great for when you are trading intraday, they can work as trade points or used to put stop losses the other side off. S3 and R3 are notoriously tough to break, you can watch price usually turn around at these levels and return back to the pivot and lower support or resistance levels. Pivots enable good risk reward when trading and offer good chances of safer trades... For example a sell just under the pivot you could use a stop loss just above the pivot and aim for S1, this has a good probability aswell as offering a nice reward for our risk. Happy trading :) more breakdowns and strategies coming soon. ZenFlo is out.
How to Calculate a Pivot point.In this quick tutorial I have shown how you can take the formula (high+low+close)/3 to create a dynamic support and resistance level, which you can use to make trading decisions, only buy above pivot and sell below. Now it is handy to have an indicator to do this manually for you everyday, as every day a new pivot is generated. This pivot will filter down possible bad entries by putting you the right side of the trend, wait for breaks of this level to tell you potential trend changes... If anyone is interested I could do a tutorial on how to create the Support 1, 2, 3 and Resistance 1,2,3 levels... at the end of the day nothing wrong with learning the mechanics of your trading system! Pivots can work extremely well on an intraday timeframe, 1m,5m,15m charts will often see trades appear around these levels.. Keep strong and prosper. ZenFlo
LINKUSDT The Importance of 0.886 and 0.146 Fibonacci RatiosWhy 14.6% (.146) and 88.6% (.886) are important levels on Fibonacci retracement? The 14.6 Fibonacci ratio, wich has a high mean of assertivity, is mirroned by 88.6, which has become an important entry level and stop loss in the market. 88.6 = 1 - X, X = 14.6. These are hidden levels on the standard scale. But you can add them manually.
As you can see on chart, my fave way to use the Fibonacci Retracement is setting the .50 level at the pivot point** that precedes a pullback, i.e. the lowest low of the first downtrend. The price generally tends to retrace at least to the 0.707* level, which is another hidden level. The most common case in the crypto market, according to my experiences, is the price going into the zone between 0.886 and 0.786. In many cases touching 88.6, which can be considered a conservative point for a stop loss. If the price does not retrace from this zone, then a potential trend reversal can be considered. I have considered the range between 88.6 and 78.6 to be a 'short zone', that is, a zone where I usually wait for a reversive price action, or you could say a potential reversal zone.
When price follows the trend after retracing then I consider 14.6% as my potential target. Means that tendence continues.
This complete zig zag movement is what we call a swing, upward or downward.
*0.707 (70.7%) is the square root of 0.5 Fibonacci ratio, wich is a ratio between 1 and 2.
**Pivot points (some call them "swing points") are those areas where important short term reversals take place.
Okay, let's see what happens during this trade.
Thanks for your attention.
Bitcoin: Liquidity and Order blocks!This is an educational post! I have tried to combine the concept of liquidity with that of supply and demand to show you one of the most efficient trade setups in financial markets!
You basically have a descending trendline in 30m chart of bitcoin! Price reaches a confluence area in higher time frame analysis (let's not be concerned about that now) then it jumps a bit to create a range! We know range bounds are liquidity nests!
So price first grabs the upper range liquidity, breaking the market structure at the same time and hence confirming the long bias! Then it comes down to the demand zone, grabbing the lower range liquidity at the same time and then boom! It goes to the target!
Wyckoff trading using the example of ADA/BTC Accumulation schemePay attention to the phases and letter designations on the graph that I showed on the ADA / BTC pair. (Cardano). A diagram of the accumulation phases is shown. Which are relevant for trading now. Several trading methods are combined on the chart:
1) Trading by the Wyckoff method.
2) Trade in horizontal channels.
3) Trade from important areas (price reversal points).
4) Trading in secondary local trends.
Now the price is at the important zone of the mirror level which, from the development of the situation, can act as support or resistance. Channel pitch 30%. You can work in two directions.
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About Wyckoff's trading method.
The forerunner of volume analysis (VSA) is Richard Wyckoff. Roughly speaking, the whole point of the method can be expressed - trade for a major market player. The creator of this technique himself was a man who had a system-forming influence on stock trading. It was not a poor theorist who got rich after publishing books! He was a very successful trader and earned impressive capital in his day. The very method that he was allowed to achieve and the entire 40 years of experience in trading, he published in his book in the public domain is already closer to his death Wall Street Ventures and Adventures Through Forty Years. At the end of his life's journey, Wyckoff became more altruistic, and decided to share the knowledge that led him to wealth. He died in 1934.
The Wyckoff trading method was developed in the early 1930s. It consists of a number of principles and strategies originally developed for traders and investors. Wyckoff devoted much of his life experience to studying market behavior, and his work still has an impact on much of modern technical analysis (TA). Currently, the Wyckoff method is applied to all types of financial markets, although initially it was focused only on stocks.
During the creation of his work, Wyckoff was inspired by the trading methods of other successful traders (especially Jesse Livermore). Today, he enjoys the same respect as other key figures such as Charles Dow and Ralph Nelson Elliott. But for example, unlike Elliot’s theory, which is good in theory, but not always applicable in practice, the Wyckoff method is many times more effective for making money not in theory, but in practice.
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According to Richard Wyckoff's trading method, there are 3 laws:
1) The law of supply and demand.
2) The law of causation.
3) The law of communication efforts and results.
The first law states that the value of assets begins to rise when demand exceeds supply, and accordingly falls in the reverse order. This is one of the most basic principles in the financial markets, which does not exclude Wyckoff in his work.
We can represent the first law in the form of three simple equations:
1) Demand> supply = price increases.
2) Demand
FREE PIVOTS. LASS look alike Try these indicators out. Below are ways to set up the chart. Look at the shadows on the stochastics for overbought and oversold areas. Here are the indicators you can use on Tradingview for PIVOTS and LASS look-alike.
Pivotal Zones
EMA 50
EMA 200
RSI
Stochastic
Stochastic
Stochastic
Here are the settings for the stochastic and RSI
Yellow Mountain = Indicator Stochastic- Settings Input 4 3 3 Style %K area color dark blue, %D color yellow Upper Band 80, Lower Band 20
Red Mountain = Indicator Stochastic- Settings Input 10 3 3 Style %K area color dark blue, %D color red Upper Band 80, Lower Band 20
Orange Mountain = Indicator Stochastic- Settings Input 20 7 4 Style %K color dark blue, %D color Orange Upper Band 80, Lower Band 20
Purple Mountain = RSI (use the default setting 14) Area color purple
If you want a dark background, the Style %K should be white or a light color.
MT4 Set Up
Use to get pivotal zones on MT4 www.best-metatrader-indicators.com
