Best Fibonacci Retracement and Extension Levels for Trading
In this short article, you will learn the best Fibonacci extension and retracement levels for trading Forex and Gold.
I will share with you correct settings for Fibonacci tools and show you how to use & draw Fibonacci's properly on TradingView.
Best Fibonacci Retracement Levels
First, let's discuss Fibonacci retracement levels.
Here are the default settings for Fibonacci retracement tool on TradingView.
We will need to modify that a bit.
We should keep 0; 0,382; 0,5; 0,618; 0,786; 1 levels
0,382; 0,5; 0,618; 0,786 will be the best retracement levels for Forex & Gold trading.
How to Draw Fibonacci Retracement Levels Properly
In order to draw fib.retracement levels properly, you should correctly identify a price action leg.
You should underline that from its lowest low to its highest high, taking into consideration the wicks of the candlesticks.
Fibonacci Retracement of a bullish price action leg will be applied from its low to its high.
1.0 Fibonacci level should lie on the lowest lie, 0 - on the highest high.
Fibonacci Retracement of a bearish price action leg will be applied from its high to its low.
Best Fibonacci Extension Levels
Above, you can find default Fib.extension settings on TradingView.
We will need to remove all the retracement levels; 2,618; 3,618; 4,236 and add 1,272; 1,414 levels.
1,272; 1,414; 1,618 will be the best Fibonacci Extension levels for trading Gold and Forex.
How to Draw Fibonacci Extension Levels Properly
Start with correct identification of a price action leg.
Draw the Fib.Extension levels of a bearish price movement from its high to its low .
Draw the Fib.Extension levels of a bullish price movement from its low to its high.
I apply the fibonacci levels that we discussed for more than 9 years.
They proved its efficiency and strength in trading different financial markets. Learn to combine Fibonacci levels with other technical analysis tools to make nice money in trading.
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Pivot Points
Is Liquidity Zones The Hidden Battleground of Smart Money In every market move, liquidity zones are the battlefields between buyers and sellers. Understanding these zones is crucial for spotting reversals and breakouts before they happen.
What Are Liquidity Zones?
High Liquidity Areas, Where large orders are placed, typically around key support/resistance or round numbers.
Low Liquidity Areas. Where price moves quickly due to fewer orders, often creating price imbalances.
Why Liquidity Matters
Smart money (institutions) seeks liquidity to execute large orders without massive slippage. Their footprints appear as wicks, sudden volume spikes, or rapid price reversals.
Spotting Liquidity Traps
False Breakouts, Price pierces a key level, triggers stop losses, and reverses quickly.
Stop Hunts, Sudden price spikes beyond a key level, only to return inside the range.
rading Strategy Example
1. Use volume profile or heat maps to spot high-interest price areas.
2. Wait for Reaction, Enter only after confirmation (e.g., a sharp wick or order flow shift).
3.Risk Management, Place stops beyond liquidity zones to avoid getting trapped.
Master liquidity zones, and you'll start seeing the market through the eyes of institutional players.
Learn Supply and Demand Basics in Gold XAAUSD Trading
In this article, we will discuss the basic principles of Smart Money Concepts in Gold trading.
I will explain to you how Gold price relates to supply and demand on the market. What is a fair value and how to identify it.
We will discuss a relation between a fair value and supply and demand and why is it so important to learn to recognize the imbalance.
Gold Price
First, let's briefly discuss how the price of Gold is valued .
Gold price is determined by the basic economic principles of supply and demand.
Supply is defined by the actions of the sellers and selling volumes.
While a demand is defined by the activity of buyers and the volumes they wish to purchase.
When supply exceeds demand, it leads to a decline in prices.
Increased selling pressure leads to lower prices as sellers compete to attract buyers.
Above, you can see how the excess of demand pushes Gold prices up rapidly.
When demand exceeds supply, we see an increase in the price of the financial asset.
In the example above, you can see how the excess of supply leads to a depreciation of a Gold price.
Imbalance & Fair Value
The excess of supply or demand on the market is also called an imbalance in Smart Money Concept trading SMC.
The imbalance causes strong bullish or bearish movement on the market.
However, such moves do not last forever.
At some moment, reaching a particular price level, the market will stop growing or falling, and the market will find the equilibrium in supply and demand.
Such an equilibrium is also called a fair value in SMC trading.
On the chart above, Gold was growing rapidly. After reaching some price level, the growth stopped and the market found a fair value.
Supply finally absorbed the excess of demand.
Sideways Movement & Range
When the market finds a fair value, it usually starts trading in sideways . The sideways movement forms a horizontal range - a horizontal parallel channel.
Such ranges signify that the market participants agree about a current price of an asset.
Above, you can see that after a strong up movement, Gold found a fair value and a consolidation within a horizontal range started.
Fair Value Range
When you spotted the range, you should remember that the market may stay within that for a very long period of time.
The trigger that will make the market reassess the fair value is typically a some important fundamental factor, the surprising geopolitical or economic event that will create a new imbalance on the market.
A strong signal that the market strives to find a new fair value is the breakout of one of the boundaries of the range. It is a signal of a violation of a current fair value.
You can see that Gold found a fair value and was stuck for quite a long period within a wide horizontal range. Then, because of the release of significant US fundamental news, an imbalance occurred. Fair value range was violated, and the price found a new fair value higher.
Trading Tips
When the imbalance on the market occurs and it violates the fair value, the price tends to find a new fair value around significant liquidity zones.
That is why it is so critical to pay attention to them.
Also, the laws of supply and demand, imbalance and fair value work on any time frame and can be applied for any trading style.
Learn to perceive a price chart from a Supply and Demand perspective in order to master Smart Money Concept trading strategy.
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A Trader’s Guide to Pivot Points What Are Pivot Points?
Pivot points are a popular technical indicator used by traders to help them predict significant areas in the market, such as potential support and resistance levels. These points are calculated by averaging the high, low, and closing prices of a previous period (which could be a day, a week, or a month) to establish possible trading zones for short-term traders. It’s important to remember that traders calculate pivot points in different ways depending on their strategic goals, but in this report, we will focus on a default calculation.
Understanding Pivot Points
When a market trades above its previous pivot point (P), it is considered a bullish signal. Conversely, trading below P is seen as bearish. Day traders often use pivot points to help them spot short-term trends. For example, if EUR/USD is trading above the previous day's P, traders might anticipate a continued climb and look to buy the pair before it reaches the next pivot point. This same style of trading can be applied on the bearish side as well, just in reverse.
Finding Support and Resistance with Pivot Points
Pivot points are not only used to gauge current price action, but also to identify potential upcoming support and resistance levels in a specific trading session. These levels are calculated as follows:
Support Levels: S1, S2, S3
Resistance Levels: R1, R2, R3
These levels appear on a chart as parallel lines to P with the corresponding number next to them, such as S1 or S2, and can serve as possible profit targets or areas to open new positions.
Calculating Pivot Points
While you don’t need to manually calculate pivot points, especially if you’re on TradingView and utilizing our data feeds (i.e. FOREXCOM: GBPUSD ), understanding the calculations can be beneficial to employing these core concepts as you get started.
To calculate P:
Find the high, low, and closing prices for the previous period. Add these prices together and divide them by three. Then, mark this level on your chart as P.
The calculations for S are more complex, but once again follow specific formulas that can be beneficial to understand:
S1 = (P x 2) - Previous High
S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
S3 = P - (R2 - S2)
Pivot Points Factsheet
Pivot points are a versatile tool that can help traders make informed decisions by identifying key levels in the market. Whether you're a day trader or a swing trader, incorporating pivot points into your strategy can help you prepare and visualize upcoming zones on an intraday chart.
Did you learn something new?
Our team of researchers and market specialists will be sharing more educational content, so be sure to follow our TradingView account for instant updates. Also, be sure to check out our latest ideas here .
Thanks for reading!
The FOREX.com team
How to Identify Significant Liquidity Zone in Gold Trading
A liquidity zone is a specific area on a price chart where the market orders concentrate.
In this article, I will teach you how to identify the most significant liquidity zones on Gold chart beyond historical levels.
Liquidity Zones
First, in brief, let's discuss where liquidity concentrates.
Market liquidity concentrates on:
1. Psychological levels
Above, you can see a clear concentration of liquidity around a 2500 psychological level on Gold price chart.
2. Fibonacci levels
In the example above, we can see how 382 retracement of a major bullish impulse attracts market liquidity on Gold XAUUSD daily time frame.
3. Horizontal support and resistance levels and trend lines.
In that case, an area based on a classic support/resistance level was a clear source of market liquidity on Gold.
Significant Liquidity Zone
A significant liquidity zone will be the area where psychological levels, Fibonacci levels, horizontal support and resistance levels and trend lines match .
Please, note that such an area may combine the indicators, or any other technical tools.
Such zones can be easily found even beyond the historic levels.
Look at a price chart on Gold on a daily.
Though the market has just updated the ATH, we can spot the next potentially significant liquidity zone with technical analysis.
We see a perfect intersection of a rising trend line, 2600 psychological level based on round numbers and a Fibonacci extension confluence of 2 recent bullish impulses.
These technical tools will compose a significant liquidity zone.
The idea is that Gold was rallying up because of the excess of demand on the market. We will assume that selling orders will be placed within that liquidity zone and the excess of demand will be absorbed by the supply.
It will make the price AT LEAST stop growing and potentially will trigger a correctional movement.
Learn to recognize such liquidity zones, it will help you a lot in predicting Gold price movements.
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Understanding Market Forces and Liquidity CollectionMarkets move to areas where liquidity exists, so learning to spot these zones can help you identify where the "smart money" is likely to act.
Smart Money Trading focuses on understanding how institutional players (banks, hedge funds, and large financial institutions) operate in financial markets. These entities have the capital to influence price movements, often targeting areas of liquidity to fill their large orders. Liquidity collection refers to the process of gathering buy or sell orders at key levels, such as swing highs, swing lows, or consolidation zones, where retail traders typically place their stop losses.
For example, if you see price spiking briefly above a resistance level before reversing sharply, this is often an institution "collecting liquidity" by triggering stop orders placed by retail traders. Recognising these patterns allows smart traders to align their trades with institutional strategies instead of fighting against them.
Key takeaway: Markets move to areas where liquidity exists, so learning to spot these zones can help you identify where the "smart money" is likely to act.
Profitable Support and Resistance Strategy for Trading Forex
This support and resistance strategy works on any forex pair and gold.
It is simple and profitable and it is the best trading strategy for beginners.
In this article, I will share with you a step-by-step guide for trading this strategy. You will learn entry rules and important theory.
First and foremost, in order to profitably trade support and resistance levels, you need to know how to identify them. You should know how to distinguish a significant structure level.
I believe that you should look for a strong support or resistance strictly on a daily time frame.
That structure should be historically significant.
It means that it should be respected by the market at least 2 times, with a strong and clear reaction to that.
Here is the example of a key support on EURUSD.
The underlined key level was respected as the resistance, first,
then, after a breakout, it turned into support and a strong bullish reaction followed.
Above, you can see a perfect horizontal resistance level that was respected 2 time in a row in the recent past.
Support and resistance levels that I showed you are truly significant.
But, trading more than 9 years, I realized that the historic reaction of the market to a key level is not enough to make it reliable.
I found one more important condition that strengthen a key level - a market trend.
We will trade only supports that align with the market trend, meaning that we buy from such a support, if only the market is trading in a bullish trend.
In the example above, NZDUSD is trading in a clear bullish trend on a daily. If we buy the market from the underlined support level, we will take a trend-following trade.
That will be the best support level for buying the market from.
We will trade only the resistances that align with the market trend.
It means that we will sell from the resistance, only if the market is trading in a bearish trend.
Look at AUDUSD on a daily. The pair is trading in a bearish trend.
The resistance that I underlined will be valid for selling from, because shoring from that, we will trade with the trend.
Please, realize that if you sell the market that is in an uptrend from a resistance level, you will go AGAINST the trend. The probabilities of winning such a trade will always be lower.
You can see the EURNZD went through a resistance level, completely neglecting that, because the market trend was bullish.
Buying a key support in a bearish trend, we will take a trade against the trend. Such trades always have lower accuracy.
A key support on EURCAD was easily broken because the market was trading in a bearish trend.
Now, let's discuss th e entry point, stop loss placement and target selection.
Once you identified a key resistance in a bearish trend, set a sell limit order on that.
On EURGBP, the market is trading in a bearish trend on a daily.
We see a significant resistance that meets our criteria.
We should set a sell limit order on that.
Stop loss for the trade will be 0.5 ATR.
I simply take the default ATR settings with 14 Length.
In our example, ATR is 27 pips.
Our stop loss for the trade will be 14 pips above the entry level.
Take profit for the trade will be the closest support.
Here is the closest support that I spotted on EURGBP. It will be our TP level.
You can see that the market perfectly reached the target.
Once you identified a key support in a bullish trend, set a buy limit order on that.
I see a perfect daily key support on EURJPY pair.
The market is trading in a strong uptrend.
A buy limit order should be set on that level.
Stop loss for the trade will be 0.5 ATR.
ATR is 139 pips.
Our stop loss will be 70 pips.
Take Profit will be the closest daily resistance.
311 pips of profit were made.
Market trend is always your friend .
The rule to trade support and resistance levels only in the side of the trend is very simple, but many newbie trades neglect that, and lose a lot of money.
Try this support and resistance strategy, back test it on different forex pairs and let me know your results.
Thanks for reading!
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*SMC* NYKZ spans 4 deviations of the Asian Session - And OftenSo Today was a day that Nasdaq Futures or most of Nasdaq charts decided to make a typical run that itusualy makes at least once or twice a week. And that run is the spance of 4 deviations of the original Asian Session.
As you can see I put the original Asian Session in the yellow box. Prior to the open I thought it would do this except I was 1 deviation off. I thought it was going to stop at one deviation below and run two deviations up.
However, after watching it closer, I could see that the 5:00 a.m. wouldn't be it's low point. There were other somewhat equal lows. And I could see that the price was going to continue dropping until it hit the Bullish Order block just below the second deviation of the Asian session.
After It dropped to the bottom of the Bullish Order Block, the time was 10:00 a.m. NY time, the ypical time it wil reverse. Pay attention to these times.
At that moment I put on a long and just wanited until It was either going to two deviations and then I was going to take 75% off my position and let move the stop loss to even and let the last of it run. And so I did. Infact, I actually let it run up to the third deviation because it had the high to beat.
This setup happens often. And I'm giving y'all a gem. Please use it to your advantage!!
Thank you!!
CME_MINI:NQ1!
How to Find Key Levels on Gold XAUUSD Chart Easily
In this short article, you will learn how to find powerful levels on a gold chart.
I will explain to you what is a key level, how to apply it in trading. We will discuss key levels and different time frames, valid and invalid key levels. I will share with you a lot of useful trading tips.
First, let's start with a definition of a key level.
Key level is a single important historic price level on the chart,
from where a significant price movement initiated.
Usually, key levels are based on the edges of candlestick wicks.
Look at Gold chart on a 4H time frame.
I underlined a key level. You can see how strong was a bullish reaction to that. The price tested that level, bounced up and formed a long wick.
Key levels that are above current prices will be called resistances .
We will assume that sellers are placing their selling orders there.
Above is the example of a key resistance on Gold on an hourly time frame.
The price tested 2479 level, dropped rapidly and formed a long wick.
From a key resistance level, a bearish movement is expected.
Key levels that are below current prices will be called supports.
We will assume that buyers are placing their buying orders there.
That is the example of a key support level on Gold chart on a daily.
From a key support level a bullish movement is expected.
Key levels that are lying close to each other will compose support and resistance clusters.
Look at 2 key support levels on Gold on a 4H time frame.
These 2 levels are lying very close to each other and compose a support cluster.
3 key resistance above will compose a resistance cluster on Gold on a daily time frame, because these levels lye close to each other.
With time, the market tends to break key levels.
If the price violated a key support level and closes below that, it turns into a resistance level.
Look at a breakout of key support on an hourly time frame on Gold chart.
After a candle close below that, the broken key level turned into resistance.
If the price violates a key resistance level and closes above that, it turns into a support level.
Above is a recently broken horizontal resistance on Gold on a 4H time frame. After a breakout, that key level turned into support.
Key levels tend to lose their significance with time.
Key level that is broken by the buyers and the sellers or vice versa loses the status of a key level.
The underlined level was a significant resistance in the past.
However, the market stopped respecting this level and it lost its importance.
Remember that you can find key levels on any time frame.
But key levels are not equal in their significance.
Key levels that are spotted on higher time frame will be stronger than key levels that are spotted on lower time frames.
On the chart on the left, I underlined key support and resistance levels on a daily time frame on Gold.
While on the right, I market key support and resistance levels on a 4H time frame.
Daily structures will be considered to be more significant structures.
Hence, the market reaction to such structures tend to be stronger.
In comparison to support and resistance areas,
key levels provide the safest points to look for a trading opportunity from.
Once you spotted a confirmation after a test of a key level,
simply set your stop loss below a support or above a resistance.
You will have a very good reward to risk ratio.
Key levels play a crucial role in technical analysis of Gold.
No matter whether you are day trader, scalper, swing trader or investor, key levels is the first thing that you should always start your analysis from.
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How to measure a true range in any asset!Hello to everyone familiar with ICT concepts!
If you already understand breakers, order blocks, and the principles of price premiums and discounts, you're in the right place.
I’m excited to share some insights with you, using the FOREXCOM:EURUSD
chart from August 20th, 2024.
One challenge I've always faced is accurately measuring the true range. It often feels like price moves towards balance, finding equilibrium before moving away again. ICT's teachings on this topic can sometimes be a bit vague, especially when it comes to the details of whether to measure wicks or focus solely on candlestick bodies. However, I’ve recently made a breakthrough and discovered the key to accurately measuring a true range!
This knowledge aligns with the idea of balances, but it’s crucial to understand that when one algorithm meets another, neither has the power to deviate far from the current price. But that's not what we need to focus on.
What truly matters is identifying when the price is moving away from its current state. This method works exceptionally well during trending markets, like we’ve seen recently with #EURUSD, #GBPUSD, and other forex pairs. It’s also effective in commodities like Gold, indices such as #NQ, #YM, #ES, and even in the crypto markets!
Take yesterday's trend in EURUSD, for example. We saw a significant 5-15 minute trend where the price perfectly retraced to its 50% level. But how did I know where to start measuring?
This time, I used a breaker from a different structure on the 15-minute chart to identify the key level. The answer lies in understanding breakers, order blocks, and supporting structures.
If this topic resonates with you, I’d love to hear your thoughts! Let’s dive deeper together—there’s so much more to explore. Feel free to share your insights or reach out if you’re curious about how to apply these concepts more effectively
EURUSD 21.08.2024 10:11
Identifying trends in BTCBTC and other cryptocurrencies are governed by a cyclic trending market, wherein extended periods of up trend (bull market) are followed by extended periods of down trend (bear market). Correctly identifying up and down trends makes it possible to buy near the bottom (when the trend turns from down to up) and sell near the top (when the trend turns from up to down).
What is Support and Resistance in Trading. Key Levels Basics
In the today's article, we will discuss the absolute basics of technical analysis: support and resistance levels.
I will explain to you why support and resistance are important , how to identify them properly, and we will discuss what is the difference between support and resistance level and support or resistance zone.
Let's start with a definition of a support .
A support is a historically significant price level that lies below the current prices of an asset.
While a resistance is a historically significant price level that is above the current prices.
From a key resistance, a bearish movement will be anticipated in futures, while from a key support, a bullish reaction will be expected.
Take a look at EURAUD pair, we can see a perfect example of a key resistance level.
2 times in a row, the market dropped from that in the past, confirming its significance.
By a historical significance , I mean that the price reacted strongly to such price level in the past and a strong bullish, bearish movement initiated from that.
Above is the example of a key horizontal support on EURCHF. The underlined key level was respected by the market multiple times in the past.
From time to time, the market breaks key levels.
After a breakout , a support turns into resistance
and a resistance turns into support.
Above is the example of a breakout of a key support on GBPNZD, after its violation it turned into resistance from where a bearish movement followed.
Always remember, that in order to confirm a breakout of a key support, we strictly need a candle close below that.
By the way, the structure here is also the zone, but we will discuss it later on.
Above is the example of a breakout of a key resistance, that turned into support after a violation.
Very often, newbie traders ask me, how many times the price should react to a key level to make it valid.
I do believe that 1 time is more than enough, however, make sure that the reaction to that is strong .
Above are key support and resistance on GBPCAD. Even though both structures were respected just one time in the past, the reaction to them was strong enough to confirm that the underlined levels are the key levels.
However, historical significance of a key support or resistance is not enough to make it valid.
What matters is the most recent reaction of the price to that.
Key supports and resistance lose their significance with time, and your job as a technical analyst, is to stay flexible and adapt to changing market conditions, regularly updating your analysis.
Above is a key resistance level on AUDJPY from where the market dropped heavily 2 times in a row.
However, with time, the underlined resistance lost its significance.
Such a structure is not a key level anymore.
Remember a simple rule: if a key structure is not respected by the sellers, and by the buyers after its breakout.
Or vice versa: if a key structure is not respected by the buyers, and then by the sellers after its breakout.
Such a structure is not a key level , and you should not rely on that in the future.
In our example, the resistance was broken - it was neglected by the sellers. After the breakout, it should have turned into support, but the buyers also neglected that and the structure lost its strength.
Now, a couple of words about time frames,
you can identify key support and resistances on any time frame, but
the rule is that higher is the time frame, more significant are the supports and resistances there.
In my analysis, I primarily rely on support and resistance on a daily time frame.
Always remember that the financial markets are not perfect and the prices will quite rarely respect the exact support or resistance levels.
Quite often, the markets may fluctuate around key levels so it is highly recommendable to rely not on single key levels but on zones.
I recommend taking into consideration not only the exact level from where a strong reaction followed, but also a candle close level of such a candle.
The support zone above is based on a wick and a candle close of a candle.
Also, quite often there will be the situations when multiple key levels will lie close to each other.
In such a case, it is better to unite all this structures in one single zone.
Above we see multiple key resistances.
We will unite all these resistances into one single zone. The upper boundary of a resistance zone will be the highest wick and its lower boundary will be the highest candle close.
Above we have 2 key supports lying close to each other.
We will unite these supports into one single zone.
The lower boundary of a support zone will be the lowest wick and the upper boundary will be the lowest candle close.
Here is how a complete structure analysis should look.
Following the rules that we discussed, you should identify at least 2 closest key resistances and 2 closest key supports.
These structures will be applied as the entries for various trading strategies.
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Psychological Levels and Round Numbers in Technical Analysis
When traders analyze the key levels, quite often then neglect the psychological levels in trading.
In this article, we will discuss what are the psychological levels and how to identify them .
What is Psychological Level?
Let's start with the definition.
Psychological level is a price level on a chart that has a strong significance for the market participants due to the round numbers.
By the round numbers, I imply the whole numbers that are multiples of 5, 10, 100, etc.
These levels act as strong supports and resistances and the points of interest of the market participants.
Take a look at 2 important psychological levels on EURGBP: 0.95 and 0.82. As the market approached these levels, we saw a strong reaction of the price to them.
Why Psychological Levels Work?
And here is why the psychological levels work:
Research in behavioral finance has shown that individuals exhibit a tendency to anchor their judgments and decisions to round numbers.
Such a decision-making can be attributed to the cognitive biases.
Quite often, these levels act as reference points for the market participants for setting entry, exit points and placing stop-loss orders.
Bad Psychological Levels?
However, one should remember that not all price levels based on round numbers are significant.
When one is looking for an important psychological level, he should take into consideration the historical price action.
Here are the round number based levels that I identified on AUDUSD on a weekly time frame.
After all such levels are underlined, check the historical price action and make sure that the market reacted to that at least one time in the recent past.
With the circles, I highlighted the recent reaction to the underlined levels. Such ones we will keep on the chart, while others should be removed.
Here are the psychological levels and proved their significance with a recent historical price action.
From these levels, we will look for trading opportunities.
Market Reaction to Psychological Levels
Please, note that psychological levels may trigger various reactions of the market participants.
For instance, a price approaching a round number may trigger feelings of greed, leading to increased selling pressure as traders seek to lock in profits.
Alternatively, a breakout above/below a psychological level can trigger buying/selling activity as traders anticipate further price momentum.
For that reason, it is very important to monitor the price action around such levels and look for confirmations .
Learn to identify psychological levels. They are very powerful and for you, they can become a source of tremendous profits.
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Volumes. Why every trader should be able to work with them.The third “stream” of incoming real data, which simply cannot be ignored when analyzing a chart, is volumes. I’ll try to explain why the third stream, what are the first two.
On any chart of a trading instrument there are two scales, price and time. These are two real and independent incoming data streams.
All Technical Analysis studies them inside and out.
Price behavior is studied in the form of graphic figures, support/resistance levels, candlestick analysis and patterns, trend lines and channels, the movement of waves of price movement, using indicators, Renko charts, tic-tac-toe, etc. and so on.
The time scale is divided into seasonality, quarters, trading sessions, sessions for hours before and after lunch, and simply into hours and minutes of possible manipulations (in ICT smartmoney, for example, Kill zones, macros).
I would call volumes the third stream of data, the “3rd scale on the chart.”
This is an independent and independent flow of data about the turnover of money, or more precisely, contracts traded at a certain time and at a certain price.
All indicators and volume analysis tools do not depend on price and time in the direct sense. They work with their data coming from the exchange.
A clear example... Any oscillator, for example, depends on the price, is calculated using a formula based on the price value, and produces a certain “averaged” option.” The cumulative delta curve is constructed based on data on the number of contracts traded from the exchange, and does not depend in any way on the price value; it has its own data.
Volumes also include not only analysis using various indicators and clusters. And the ability to work with COT reports, open interest and other data from CME. This is also data on contracts traded by different groups of participants.
And understanding how options work, all markets are closely related and influence each other. There are many complex risk hedging designs. Nobody wants to lose money.
And I think ignoring this data flow and not being able to work with it is, at the very least, stupid.
And simply, isn’t it interesting to look inside a candle or figure to see what’s really going on there? The price is in a “triangle or sideways”, accumulation/distribution is taking place, but is anything really happening there? Are you waiting for a rollback to imbalance (FVG), but is there this imbalance there? Are you waiting for a reaction to a level, “liquidity withdrawal”, order block, but is there something or someone inside the reaction or not?
By the way, I don’t know the fourth data stream, if you know, please let me know. I'll be happy to study it.
I hope the information will be useful. Don't forget to like, subscribe, share with friends, leave comments. All you have to do is click a button, and I love seeing feedback. Thank you.
Liquidity Hunt PatternLiquidity Hunt Pattern
Uncover Hidden Opportunities in the Market
Introduction:
The Liquidity Hunt Pattern is a powerful technical analysis tool that helps traders identify potential turning points in the market. By understanding how this pattern forms and its implications, traders can gain an edge in uncovering hidden opportunities and making informed trading decisions.
What is the Liquidity Hunt Pattern?
The Liquidity Hunt Pattern is characterized by a series of price movements that create a distinct "W" or "M" shape on the chart. This pattern forms when large institutional players, known as "liquidity providers" enter the market to buy or sell large quantities of assets. Their actions create temporary imbalances in supply and demand, leading to price swings that can be exploited by astute traders.
Identifying the Pattern:
The Liquidity Hunt Pattern consists of three key elements:
The "W" or "M" shape: This is the most recognizable feature of the pattern and is formed by a series of price swings that create the distinctive letter shape.
Volume spikes: The pattern is often accompanied by significant volume spikes, indicating the presence of large institutional activity.
Breakout or breakdown: The pattern typically resolves with a breakout or breakdown, signaling a potential change in the market direction.
Trading the Liquidity Hunt Pattern:
Traders can use the Liquidity Hunt Pattern to identify potential entry and exit points for their trades. By understanding the dynamics of the pattern, traders can:
Anticipate potential turning points: The pattern can signal potential reversals or continuations in the market trend.
Identify high-probability trading setups: The pattern can be used to identify areas where the risk-reward ratio is favorable.
Manage risk effectively: The pattern can help traders set stop-loss and take-profit levels to manage their risk exposure.
Conclusion:
The Liquidity Hunt Pattern is a valuable tool for traders of all levels. By understanding its formation and implications, traders can gain an edge in the market and uncover hidden opportunities for profitable trades.
CHoCH, BOS(Break of Structure), and Pullback ExamplesCHoCH, BOS(Break of Structure), and Pullback Examples
Multi Timeframe Analysis
Daily ----> 4H
4H ----> 1H
1H ----> 15 min
30m ----> 5m
Market Structure Simplified
"Ultimate Market Structure Course - Smart Money Concepts" by Smart Money Concepts
1. First Step: Find Valid Pullbacks
- Signal Trends
- Valid Breaks
- Reversals
Pullbacks are defined by when a low of a candle is below previous candle low
2. Identify deepest point of pullback
- That will be the unconfirmed low/high
3. Look for BOS or CHoCH to confirm valid lower/higher high or low
High LowSome corrections go for a third or even a fourth leg, so I prefer a different labeling system to account for this and discuss it later in the books. In its simplest form, it counts the legs of a pullback. For example, if there is a down leg in a bull trend or in a trading range and a bar then goes above the high of the prior bar, this breakout is a high 1. If the market then has a second leg down and then a bar goes above the high of a prior bar, the breakout bar is a high 2. A third occurrence is a high 3, and a fourth is a high 4. In a bear leg or in a trading range, if the market reverses back down after one leg, the entry is a low 1. If it reverses back down after two legs up, the entry is a low 2 entry and the bar before it is a low 2 setup or signal.
Since measured moves are an important part of trading and the AB = CD terminology is inconsistent with the more commonly used ABC labeling, the AB = CD terminology should not be used. Also, I prefer to count legs and therefore prefer numbers, so I will refer to each move as a leg, such as leg 1 or the first push, and then leg 2, and so forth. After the chapter on bar counting in the second book, I will also use the high/low 1, 2, 3, 4 labeling because it is useful for traders.
ICT Unicorn Model - The powerful ModelThe Unicorn entry model in the ICT method combines the concepts of the Breaker Block and the Fair Value Gap, providing a unique approach to identifying trade opportunities. This combination highlights a future area of support/resistance.
A Bullish Unicorn Pattern consists out of:
A Lower Low (LL), followed by a Higher High (HH)
A Fair Value Gap (FVG), overlapping the established Breaker Block
A successful re-test of the FVG which confirms the pattern.
A Bearish Unicorn Pattern consists of:
A Higher High (HH), followed by a Lower Low (LL)
A Fair Value Gap (FVG), overlapping the established Breaker Block
A successful re-test of the FVG which confirms the pattern
In this trading idea, I would combine the movement of DXY and GU/EU to explain the correlation and divergence (ICT SMT). Futhermore, I want to share how powerful the ICT Unicorn Entry Model is.
How to Trade Support and Resistancesupport and resistance levels are crucial concepts that every trader needs to grasp. These levels represent key points on a chart where the price tends to reverse its direction. By analyzing historical price action, traders can identify these areas and strategize their trades based on how the price reacts upon reaching these levels.
The Simplicity and Complexity of S&R
While the idea of support and resistance is straightforward to understand, effectively trading these levels can be challenging due to psychological barriers and emotional involvement. Mastering support and resistance trading isn’t just about recognizing patterns; it’s also about understanding the human emotions driving those patterns.
What is Support and Resistance
Support is a price level where a currency’s downward trend is expected to pause due to a concentration of demand. It’s where buyers step in, viewing the currency as undervalued, thus preventing further price decline.
The OANDA:XAUUSD chart above depicts a notable support level of 2031. Historically, when the price of Gold reaches this level, it tends to initiate an upward trajectory. Traders can identify potential trading opportunities at this juncture and consider establishing long positions after the confirmation signal, such as a break of structure, signs of a liquidity sweep, or the order block.
Traders can also use the bullish candlestick pattern as an additional signal when considering support zones for buying opportunities.
In the FX:EURUSD pair, there is a noteworthy support zone extending from 1.0648 to 1.0666. Over several instances, the price has consistently demonstrated a pattern of bouncing upward from within this range, as illustrated in the chart.
Let’s see another example of support zones with stop-loss hinting.
The price level at 1.08924 serves as a significant support zone; however, it’s important to note that smart money often orchestrates moves that trigger stop-loss orders before driving the price upwards. Later in this S&R trading guide, we’ll delve into a detailed discussion of the concept of stop-loss hunting, complete with illustrative examples.
What is Resistance
Resistance levels are price levels at which the price tends to move in a downward direction.
Let’s analyze the chart provided above. The circled areas on the chart represent strong resistance zones where the price tends to move in a downward direction in the EURUSD pair. It’s worth noting that quite often, the price moves downward after triggering stop-loss orders in these areas. This phenomenon can be observed frequently in any currency pair.
The Psychology Behind These Levels
Fear and Greed: These are the two main emotions at play. At support levels, fear (of prices falling more) meets greed (for buying at a low price). At resistance levels, it’s the opposite; greed (for higher selling prices) meets fear (of prices dropping).
Group Thinking: Many traders are watching the same levels. When a lot of people act the same way (buying at support or selling at resistance), it reinforces these levels.
Self-Fulfilling Prophecy: Because so many traders are watching these levels, their reactions to them can make the support and resistance predictions come true.
Formula of Support and Resistance
Pivot Point Calculation
The Pivot Point (PP) is calculated as the average of the high, low, and close prices of the previous trading period:
Pivot Point (PP) = (High + Low + Close) / 3
First-Level Support and Resistance
First Resistance (R1) This is calculated by doubling the pivot point, then subtracting the low of the previous period.
First Resistance (R1) = (2 x PP) – Low
First Support (S1) This is found by doubling the pivot point and subtracting the previous period’s high.
First Support (S1) = (2 x PP) – High
Second-Level Support and Resistance
Second Resistance (R2) This level is calculated by adding the difference between the high and low of the previous period to the pivot point.
Second Resistance (R2) = PP + (High – Low)
Second Support (S2) This is determined by subtracting the difference between the high and low of the previous period from the pivot point.
Second Support (S2) = PP – (High – Low)
Third Level Support and Resistance
Third Resistance (R3) Calculated by adding twice the difference between the pivot point and the low to the high.
Third Resistance (R3) = High + 2(PP – Low)
Third Support (S3) Found by subtracting twice the difference between the high and the pivot point from the low.
Third Support (S3) = Low – 2(High – PP)
These pivot point-based support and resistance levels are crucial tools for traders, providing potential points of market reversal or continuation. The pivot point is often seen as a marker of equilibrium between bullish and bearish market forces.
The Phenomenon of Stop-Loss Triggers at These Points
A stop-loss order is a tool used in trading to sell a security when it reaches a predetermined price, to limit potential losses. To understand how it relates to support and resistance, consider the following analogy:
Think of trading as a game where you establish a rule: if your score drops below a certain point, you decide to exit the game to prevent further losses. This rule resembles the concept of a “stop-loss” in trading.
Now, picture a scenario involving seasoned players, often represented by large funds, who aim to maximize their gains in the game. They observe that many players have set their exit points at a specific level, such as 100 points.
These experienced players intentionally create the impression that the game’s score is approaching that critical 100-point level. As the score gets closer to 100 points, other players become anxious and decide to exit the game (activating their stop-loss orders) to avoid more significant losses. This sudden mass exit results in a sharp decline in the game’s score.
Smart money takes advantage of this situation by purchasing more points at the lower price they anticipated. After acquiring these points at a discounted rate, they allow the game’s score to rebound, ultimately profiting when it reaches higher levels.
In essence, this illustrates how Informed Money, often represented by large funds, may manipulate the market by creating the illusion that prices are nearing significant support or resistance levels. This can trigger the activation of stop-loss orders by other traders, enabling the seasoned players to capitalize on lower prices before the market resumes its upward trajectory.
Trading Strategy for Support and Resistance
When trading support and resistance make decisions on their base consider the following points.
Identify Support and Resistance in Larger Time Frames: Locate these levels in extended time frames like H1, H4, and D1 to gain a clear understanding of the market’s pivotal points. This approach not only clarifies your perspective when trading in smaller time frames but also reduces confusion. Confusion often arises from too many levels, making it challenging to determine which levels present viable trading opportunities.
Patience: Wait for the price to reach these levels and look for additional signals.
Utilize Bearish and Bullish Candlestick Patterns: Employing candlestick patterns at these levels aids in decision-making and enables traders to strategically set take-profit and stop-loss orders.
Develop a Trading Bias: Establish a daily bias at the beginning of each week to assist in deciding whether to take long or short trades. Focus only on those levels that align with your trading bias.
In conclusion, discipline is paramount in trading. It’s essential to avoid overtrading and adhere strictly to your established trading plans. Using stop-loss orders is crucial in managing risk and protecting your capital. Additionally, limiting your focus to a fixed set of currency pairs allows for a more in-depth understanding of their market dynamics, leading to more informed trading decisions. Remember, consistency and discipline in following these practices can significantly enhance your trading effectiveness and help in achieving long-term success.
how to identify strong support and resistance
Historical Price Levels: The most basic method is to look at historical price charts. Strong support and resistance levels are often at prices where the market has repeatedly reversed or consolidated. These levels are more significant if they have been tested multiple times.
Round Numbers: Psychological levels often play a crucial role in trading. Prices such as 1.3000 in EUR/USD or 100 in USD/JPY are examples where traders might expect support or resistance.
Mastering Fibonacci Retracement :Navigating Bitcoin's VolatilityMastering Fibonacci Retracement :Navigating Bitcoin's Volatility
Navigating the volatile landscape of Bitcoin trading can be a daunting task for both novice and experienced traders alike. However, equipped with the right tools, traders can identify potential support and resistance levels, make informed decisions, and capitalize on market movements. One such tool that has stood the test of time is the Fibonacci retracement tool, a staple in the arsenal of many traders due to its uncanny ability to forecast potential price reversals with remarkable accuracy.
Understanding Fibonacci Retracement
Fibonacci retracement is based on the idea that markets will retrace a predictable portion of a move, after which they will continue to move in the original direction. The concept draws from the Fibonacci sequence, a series of numbers where each number is the sum of the two preceding ones (0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, and so on). In trading, these numbers are translated into percentage levels that traders use to identify potential reversal points on price charts.
Key Levels to Watch
The most commonly used Fibonacci retracement levels are 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, and 78.6%. These percentages represent potential support and resistance levels where the price of an asset like Bitcoin could experience a reversal or consolidation. The 61.8% level, often referred to as the "golden ratio," is particularly noteworthy for its reliability in predicting price movements.
Applying Fibonacci to Bitcoin Trading
When applying Fibonacci retracement levels to Bitcoin's price action, traders often look for significant highs and lows to place their retracement lines. From there, the tool provides a visual representation of potential areas where the price may stall or reverse. For instance, during a downtrend, a retracement to a higher Fibonacci level like 61.8% could indicate a potential area of resistance where traders might consider taking profits or entering short positions.
The Significance of the 78.6% Level
Recent discussions among traders have highlighted the 78.6% retracement level as a crucial point for Bitcoin, suggesting that reaching this level often precedes significant corrections. This phenomenon underscores the importance of Fibonacci levels in anticipating market movements, allowing traders to adjust their strategies accordingly.
Real-world Application
Consider Bitcoin's historic rally and subsequent corrections. Traders have observed that significant pullbacks often align with key Fibonacci levels. For example, during a bullish phase, if Bitcoin's price retraces to the 61.8% or 78.6% levels before bouncing back, this could be seen as a strong signal for trend continuation.
Conclusion
The Fibonacci retracement tool is more than just a mathematical curiosity; it's a reflection of human psychology and market sentiment. By identifying levels where price action may change direction, traders can make more informed decisions, manage risk more effectively, and potentially increase their chances of success in the market.
As with any trading tool, it's important to use Fibonacci retracements in conjunction with other indicators and analysis methods to validate potential trading signals. Remember, no tool can predict market movements with absolute certainty, but by understanding the tendencies and patterns, traders can navigate the Bitcoin market with greater confidence. BINANCE:BTCUSDT BITSTAMP:BTCUSD BINANCE:BTCUSDT.P
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Support and Resistance VS Supply and Demand. Important Lesson
In the today's post, I will compare support and resistance levels with supply and demand zones.
I will explain to you the difference between them and share important tips and examples.
What are support and resistance levels?
We also call them key levels. These are particular levels on a price chart from where in the past we saw significant bullish or bearish movements.
Key support will be a one single level, that has a historical significance and from where a bullish reaction will be anticipated.
The all-time low on USDCHF will be a perfect example of a key support.
It is one single level that was respected one time in the past and from where a bullish reversal initiated.
Key resistance will be a one single level on a price chart that has a historical significance and from where a bearish movement will be expected.
The all-time high on Gold will represent a key horizontal resistance.
That level was respected one time in the past and from that level exactly the market dropped heavily.
What are supply and demand zones?
In comparison to support and resistance levels, supply and demand zones are the areas on a price chart. The zones that are based on multiple touches and consequent strong bullish or bearish reactions.
Demand zone will be the area that was tested at least 2 times in the past, and the price should strictly respect different price levels within that area.
A similar reaction will be anticipated from the demand zone in the future.
The yellow area above will a good example of a demand zone.
You can see that the price tested that area 3 times, and each time the market respected different levels lying within that.
These 3 tests compose the demand area.
Supply zon e will be the area that was tested at least 2 times in the past and the price should strictly respect different price levels within that area.
A similar reaction will be anticipated from the demand zone in the future.
In this example, a supply area on EURUSD is based on 2 touches of key levels, lying very close to each other.
On the chart above, I underlined 2 horizontal support levels - the single levels that were respected by the market multiple times, and a supply zone - the area that is based on tests of multiple levels lying close to each other.
Support and resistance levels give you SINGLE levels from where you can look for trading opportunities. While supply and demand zones represent the areas. After a test of a supply and demand zone, the market may react to a RANDOM level within that.
For newbie traders, it is highly recommendable to trade single key levels, while experienced traders can broaden their strategies and trade supply and demand zones as well.
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Quad Witching: Mark Your Calendar for 2024Quad-witching is a phenomenon unique to the stock and options markets, occurring four times a year. It captures a flurry of activity sparked by the simultaneous expiration of four types of derivatives contracts: stock index futures, stock index options, stock options, and single stock futures.
The third Friday of March, June, September, and December marks these critical days in the trading calendar, bringing with them distinct opportunities and challenges for investors and traders alike.
Quad Witching S&P 500 Index Price Drops 2023
March -1.1%
June -0.37%
September -1.22%
December -0.1%
Average Drop 0.7%
The Basics of Quad Witching
Quad Witching is a critical event for anyone engaged in the stock market due to its pronounced effects on market volatility. Understanding its mechanics, significance, and impact helps investors and traders navigate the complexities of financial markets.
Definition of Quadruple Witching
Quadruple Witching is a term used to describe the simultaneous expiration of four types of financial derivatives: stock index futures, stock index options, stock options, and single stock futures. This event happens every quarter, specifically on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December. It poses distinct considerations for market participants.
Significance of Quadruple Witching Dates
It is important for those who are involved in the financial markets to mark the calendar for Quadruple Witching Dates. These days witness increased trading activity as investors and traders adjust or close out their derivative positions. This period of adjustment is a display of strategic decision-making as market participants act to manage their investments before contracts expire.
Impact on Market Volatility
During Quad Witching, there is a simultaneous expiration of derivative contracts that can lead to higher trading volume and market volatility. Traders and investors need to be aware of the potential fluctuations in prices resulting from the amplified trading activity, which can significantly impact the short-term valuation of securities.