Pivot Points
Profit on NZDUSD!Hi @FollowMyForex fans!
After our last update, all our targets were hit netting us a nice profit of +43 pips. By actively managing the position we were able to identify a change in the market momentum, adjust accordingly and take full advantage of it! Gotta love it when a plan works out like this ;)
On to the next!
BTC 4H Look with Pivots and a Fork to get a grip on it . Hi .
Thank you for looking . . Its hard ATM for anyone to predict whats going on . I was trying to put some sort of channel on this and after doing so I dragged the pitchfork and they mach perfectly so why bother ... I think this is good look for now with this price moves . We can still see accumulation on smaller time frames witch its conforming the trend .. Until we see major sales accruing we are marching up for now looks like .. Pivots are great to see the trend . I have Weakly pivots in place to give us and idea and support zones . We are currently in trading range from previous run . Historically we accumulated in this zone around EQ and then pushed thru . If we see some major problems with this area we have to consider other options then straight bull run and hitting previous high . I will follow with my other platform soon waiting for big cluster to tell us whats going on. For now there are small sell and buy orders going thru . But staying in positive delta Makes me think we going Up and to hit the top of that channel before some pull back .
Happy Trading . Thumbs up keeps me motivated so if you like my content hit one .
Part 2. The Power of Algorithmic Support and Resistance - AppleWelcome to Part 2 of the series examining algorithmic support and resistance (S/R).
Today we'll check out Apple Inc (AAPL), and how the algorithm defined S/R zones over the last 15 years.
So, as I mentioned in Part 1 (see the Related Ideas link below), the algorithm incorporates a number of factors to determine, in real-time, viable support and resistance zones. I primarily trade currencies, and dabble with some indexes, so I was interested to see how the algo performed in a upward biased equity market (equity markets, unlike currency markets, have an intrinsic upward momentum over the long-term). Spoiler alert: it was almost flawless.
Now, I have to admit that I've cherry picked this example; not every equity/currency/index/bond market will work this well - but it is a good example of how valid the algo is. But, like every tool in a technical analysts arsenal, nothing works every time.
Okay, without further rambling, let's check out some examples. We'll start back in 2006:
So far, so good! There were heaps of great tradeable signals provided by the algo. Remember, as soon as a zone is identified (the vertical background colours), you can trade any subsequent signal - there's no need to wait for confirmation of the zones validity. Let's have a look at the next chart:
The really interesting thing for me is how price gets stuck between Zone 3 and Zone 4. This is a perfect example that highlights how accurately the algo manages to identify zones, and how the market respects them in a consistent manner. Onto the next chart:
Here we can see how, even when a zone is initially breached, it can later provide significant support/resistance. We never know exactly when a market is going to respect a zone - we simply have to wait for market/price confirmation. The next chart:
Again, some really great trading opportunities here. Breakouts and retests of S/R zones are particularly great trades. You will sometimes experience false breakouts, but that's where trade and risk management comes into play. I really love how zones can come back into play years after they're formed. Okay, the last chart:
Now we're up to date! Zone 8 again provided some great opportunities, and Zone 9 has yet to be re-tested by the market.
That's all I wanted to cover for today. Basically just providing further examples of how the algo forms zones, and how the market (fairly) reliably reacts to them. Knowing where the market may react and where price may turn is half the battle. As you can see, you could have made a great deal of money trading these signals (ignoring the fact you could have made a great deal just buying and holding Apple, but that's not what we're looking at today).
Feel free to get in touch if you have any comments or questions!
All the best,
DD
Part 1. An Algorithm Based Support & Resistance ToolWelcome!
Today I'll be demonstrating the efficacy of a method I've determined to identify and trade support and resistance (S/R) zones in real-time.
Normally, traditional technical analysis requires a S/R zone to experience multiple validation events (touches, reverses, bounces), before it becomes tradeable. The downside to this method is that numerous profitable trades are bypassed while confirmation is being developed. Unfortunately, many of the most profitable S/R trades appear soon after a level develops (think double/triple tops).
After much research and experimentation, I've come up with a tool/indicator that can identify significant S/R zones in real-time. Once a bar closes, there is ZERO repainting. As the chart above shows, this means that you can trade a level as soon as price returns to it - no matter how quickly that occurs.
The tool takes into account (not in order of weight):
Price action
Volume
Chart patterns
Volatility
Momentum
By combining multiple methods of analysis, levels are formed quickly, yet accurately. It's pretty important at this point to mention that I'm not claiming this is a get rich quick plan. All the tool does is identify potentially profitable zones that price will often react to. However, it's not infallible (nothing is), and it doesn't teach you to trade. You, as the trader, need to know how to trade price action to ensure a confirmation signal is given before trading a S/R event. You also need to know how to set a stop less, determine appropriate levels of risk, and undertake trade management to ensure profitability.
Now, some people say S/R zones are easy to identify - in that case, what's the point of this tool? Simply, this tool takes the guesswork/bias out of S/R zones. As human beings, we're uniquely unsuited to investing money. We're irrational, emotional, ill-disciplined, and impulsive. Frankly, the average person (of which I'm one), needs every useful tool they can get their hands on. This tool means that one step (determining a trade area), is covered for you. That's it.
Given the proprietary nature of the tool, and the value it has, I won't be releasing the code for it. At least not yet. However, something I really enjoy is helping other traders, so I've decided to start producing charts across various markets that identify relevant S/R zones identified by this tool. At this point in time they'll be provided free of charge, but depending on the demand for multiple markets (and time frames), that may change in the future.
Oh, and remember that zone I mention in the chart above? The one between 27.47 and 27.17? The one from 1995? See the comments below for an example of how it came into play 24 years later...
If you have any queries please let me know. And let me know which charts & time frames (bearing in mind, like most things, the higher the time frame the more reliable the signals).
DD
Every excess detected at resistance, 100% sure sell.
1) Very tight channel detect here with 3 excess and currently forming 4rd an excess. I prefer to sell when price with excess at a value high.
2) The tail should be in excess is more accurate.
--> First condition meet here, short at a higher price will be great. Each trade must have a protective stop, therefore keep your stop above resistance.
---> Wait for the 2nd condition to meet and enjoy 99% accurate trade.
Hit LIKE button if you want to alert REAL-TIME .
It is not gambling if you know what you’re doing. It is gambling if you’re just throwing money into a deal and praying. - by Kinnari Prajapati
95% WINRATE STRATEGY? (MUST WATCH!) PART 3/3There’s a better way to do things. I don’t care what you’re using, maybe, just maybe, there’s a way to improve your strategy. I can confirm this idea is seen as wildly offensive. Ask someone why their strategy works and they’ll cringe like you just asked them if their spouse is cheating. “How dare you question their effectiveness! I’ll let you know we have a long history together and I love them very much.” I’m sure you do, but have you noticed some of the warning signs? They’re all right there in front of you. It may not feel good when I ask, but if the signs are there and 3/4ths of marriages fail, it wouldn’t sit well with me if I didn’t speak up just to keep you comfy cozy.
Analogies aside, your “spouse” is your strategy. The warning sign is that you keep on losing trades, blaming your loses on “volatility” without wanting to admit what the real problem is. Perhaps you’re still green for now, just wait for a larger sample size of a trade history. Much like your imaginary marriage, the odds are wildly against you. Why do you think 95 plus percent of traders fail? You can massage data however you like, the problem is at some point you decided to stop improving because you got confident.
EURUSD Perfect Pivot Play : EU pivoting downwardHere is a great example of how TV's free indicator "Pivot Points Standard" can be used.
EU started this Month in a Picture Perfect fashion, for anybody watching Pivot Points.
Pivot traders take Swings that start or end at the Central Pivot, of the timeframe of interest.
Pivot Strategy :
If rejected from Daily Central, target the daily M1.
If rejected from Weekly Central, target the weekly M1.
If rejected from Monthly Central, target monthly M1.
(or vice versa, swing from M1 to the Central).
That term ''Pivot'' is used to describe many different things by different people.
BUT there is only ONE true ''Pivot Point'', per each period.
The above chart has Daily (blue), Weekly (green) and Monthly (brown) pivots .
See my three chapter Guide to Pivot Points: one of TV's greatest free tools'' below :
LTCUSD Pivot Point study: LItecoin shows it knows PivotsThis is a current example of TV's free ''Pivot Points Standard'' indicator.
All of those Pivot lines are drawn at the beginning of each period.
They do not 'repaint' like most other indicators, making for good targets.
Last week was a perfect Pivot trade, weekly R1 to S1, a common swing.
This week the Monthly (new for Jan.) Pivot was found to be support.
So it is possible that the Monthly R1 will be hit before the end of Jan.
NOTE
The term ''Pivot'' or ''Pivot Point'' is used in different manners by different people.
But originally, that term described a very specific method of calculating pivot price points.
TV has captured that original method, in the standard indicator ''Pivot Points Standard''.
Here is a 3-chapter guide to using TV's indicator
XMRBTC pivot point play: Monero at a Central ClusterXMRBTC is at an interesting price, for anybody watching Pivot Points.
That term ''Pivot'' is used to describe many different things by different people.
BUT there is only ONE true ''Pivot Point'', per each period.
The above chart is showing Weekly (green) and Monthly (brown) pivots.
See my three chapter Guide to Pivot Points: one of TV's greatest free tools'' below:
HOW TO TRADE WITH THE TREND + IDENTIFY TREND REVERSALS / VIDEO This is a 9 minute video that covers how to ensure you are trading on the right side of the trend.
Lots of good stuff on this topic, unfortunately it's impossible to cover everything in the 10 minute limit provided by TradingView for videos, so if you have any questions please feel free to get in touch.
A 100 pip short based on a support-to-resistance flipFirst of all, this is the ICT Breaker concept from ICT (Inner Circle Trader) on YouTube, all credit goes to him.
I've outlined a nice example of this strategy in the chart. I use this a lot and it's really simple to understand and notice once you catch a few of them.
I'd love to see you try to find more examples. Feel free to post them in the comments and we can discuss them!
Things to look for:
- Same concept applies for longs, but inverse.
- The candle block you're using must precede a move that takes out a previous swing point (low or high).
- If the price does retrace to that block as you expect, but starts consolidating and pushes back into it repeatedly, it could be a sign that it wants to move back through it. The market is sometimes tricky like that.
Also, here's a bonus confluence factor - if you pull the fib retrace tool from the top to the bottom of the move, you can see that our block falls right between .62 and .79 fib levels. This is another good indicator to confirm your bias.
The Power of Camarilla Pivots2018 has been a marvelous year of range between the R3 and S3 Year Camarilla pivots for multiple instruments including metals, currencies, and indices.
This is the busiest chart I will show and for a reason.
I only buy gold 2X per year, the seasonal July top in the equity market (July 22 on average) and December 15 after the 4th Quarter Fed announcement.
2013 Neckline shown
Schiff pitchfork that perfectly fits the current weekly data
Gold range for 2018 has been near perfect CAM (Camarilla) R3 to S3. This is classic CAM strategy.
MFI (top indicator) oversold
Larry Connors RSI and RSI-2 at bottom oversold
DXY
Top is just under the Year Pivot and Year CAM R3.
Top is near the midline of major weekly pitchfork guiding the current trend.
Bottom for the year is near exactly Year CAM S3.
USDCHF
False breakout for USDCHF.
Bottom of the year was Year CAM S4
Top is Year CAM R3
EURUSD
Main Chart window.
2018 Top is Year CAM R3
2018 Bottom is Year CAM S3
GBPUSD
2018 Bottom was 2 pips off Year CAM S3 and Year Pivot
The fact that the Pivot and S3 are so close together makes for huge support
What does all of this mean? I trade Camarilla pivots probably 50% of the time, and the general rule of them when you witness a Level 3 to Level 3 movement, whether that be Day, Week, Month, Year Pivots, is that we revert to the previous period close. This would mean that by the end of the year, we revert to the 2017 close for all of these instruments. I can show countless examples of this.
Final thing, the SPX 20 Year Seasonal , which we are following to a T for the month of July. On average DXY tops in July with stocks. I closed my ES futures long positions this week as we just hit the 78.6% Retracement target again, as well as Year CAM R3.
SPX500 looks like it is making a perfect Gartley top with an inner zig-zag completed by an impulse wave. As much as I don’t like to listen to the pundits out there calling for danger, it feels like a 1987 style October is coming this year. I suspect that will kick the above chart of SPX futures down to the Year CAM S4 near 2420.00, but that is my personal pipe dream.
Testing New StrategyUsing pivots, Fibonacci and trend lines. Blue boxes are zones. If the price breaks any of the zones, I predict the price to go on that direction once there is confirmation on the hourly chart e.g. engulfing candle. Currently, box has broken for a downtrend. This is just a test and in the future will add in targets and stop losses (but the blue box zones can be an indication of those).
Guide to Pivot Points: one of TV's greatest free toolsHow I use the free Pivot Points indicator.
There is a lot of be said about "Pivots" and a lot of people mean different things with that word.
What I am showing is the ''Old-School'' definition of that term.
Pivots are as simple as this:
(H+L+C)/3 of the previous period = Center Pivot (P) in current period.
The the 'Support' (Sx) and 'Resistance' (Rx) pivots are calculated based on above equation.
There are many variations used these days, but the ''Traditional'' is the first, and I think most commonly used.
What do they tell you?
The seem to make good TARGETS for a move, and often lose energy there.
Many traders will look to take profits at a Pivot, which is obvious in above chart.
I will add updates with more explanations later, after this is up.
How to enter a trade (entry signals) for CTR/BTC price spikeHi all.
I've had some PM's about the price spike we had for CTR/BTC over the last 24 hours, given that I did some analysis on this a few days back.
I've recorded this vid to provide some context around what you should have been looking for! There's also some time spent on what not to do, which will hopefully be useful for newer traders.
Hope it's useful. Let me know any feedback or other things that you would like covered.
Cheers and good luck,
RJR