This is a followup to this year-on-year inflation chart idea posted back in June 2022: The YoY US Inflation rate has been on a trend of going down since it tested the 1.414 PCZ of the Bearish Butterfly above, but recently we have seen the MoM rate slow its descent and form a bottoming pattern with MACD Hidden Bullish Divergence at the 200-Month SMA and now we...
bullish idea, there's lots of space to the upside and plenty of orders to take off the initial news burst. as long as we move up follow the plan. if we move down, and only if you are not already in a position, i'd take smaller longs and add later only if it comes back to the initial idea. if price falls to the depths of hell, well, fine. just short the first pull...
Today's focus: USDJPY Pattern – Ascending Triangle Pattern Support – 146.50 - 144.75 Resistance – 147.92 Thanks for checking out today's update. Today, we have run over USDJPY, breaking down the overall price picture, levels, and patterns and incorporating moving average and RSI into the analysis. The USDSJPY continues to be locked up in a bullish continuation...
Over the course of the past two weeks, the GBPUSD currency pair experienced a pronounced decline, breaching the pivotal monthly support at 1.2448. Notably, there was a subsequent rally to retest this critical level during the Friday session of the preceding week, following the initial breach observed on Thursday. In the upcoming trading week, our strategic outlook...
China will print, there is no way around it, at the same time the dollar will fall, I do not know how they will pull that rabbit out of the hat but they will, China will get richer while the street americans get stiffed by tough financial conditions and high rates as it is right now, chinese money is going to push-up the SP500, SP500 at this time and place is a...
I believe xrp will settle here, buy to $1 and sell back off towards the .37 range My Entry: 0.523 SL: 0.48418 TP1: 0.55 TP2: 0.6 TP3: 0.69 TP4: 0.73 TP5: 0.79 TP6.: 0.85 TP7: 0.9 TP8: 0.93 TP9: 0.95 TP10: 0.97 TP11: 1
Gold has been shunned by investors, but many are now questioning if the yellow metal is nearing an inflection point, for a potential turn, or should we position for further downside. With US growth likely at a peak and as good as it gets, gold longs partly flushed out, positioning paired back and sentiment as bearish as we’ve seen for years, could we be seeing a...
US 10YR ‘real’ rates are essentially US 10yr Treasuries adjusted for 10yr inflation expectations – TradingView users can set this up using the equation: TVC:US10Y-FRED:T10YIE. We can see this as the true cost of capital and in effect, the higher yields rise the more this supports the USD and negatively impacts US equity valuations. The rate of change (ROC) is...
The technical weekly uptrend that yields have formed is rather astonishing. The sheer power of this move suggests likely more upside yields. Some basic measured moves suggest a potential whopping 5.7% on the 20 year. Imagine TLT long bond traders! Nothing is probable but it makes you wonder if inflation is becoming more entrenched since the bond market is very...
Today's focus: USD Index Pattern – Ascending Triangle Support – 95.68 Resistance – 96.32 Today, we look at the USD index as price continues to trade rangebound after fighting back from a two-day decline. Could today’s CPI data break the deadlock and give the market some direction? Traders will be watching to see what today’s data could do for rate rise...
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: TP5 @ 1.2115 (closing ALL Buy Orders) TP4 @ 1.17850 (shaving 25%) TP3 @ 1.1250 (shaving 25%) TP2 @ 1.1100 (shaving 25%) TP1 @ 1.0933 (shaving 25%) BLO1 @ 1.0820 ⏳ BLO2 @ 1.0800 ⏳ VIDEO TIMESTAMP: 00:00 ECB News 02:53 Where Do We Go From Here? 03:32 A Noisy Intermediate Time Frame (4H) 04:55 Key Support/Resistance Levels (4H) 06:01...
27th July 2023 DXY: Break below 100.74 could get to 100.40 and 100 round number NZDUSD: Buy 0.6265 SL 25 TP 50 AUDUSD: Buy 0.6845 SL 20 TP 50 USDJPY: Sell 140.35 SL 30 TP 110 GBPUSD: Buy 1.3030 SL 40 TP 100 EURUSD: Buy 1.1150 SL 30 TP 100 (hawkish ECB) USDCHF: Break below 0.8560 big downside to 0.8380 (choppy, dependent on DXY) USDCAD: Sell 1.3150 SL...
The Federal Reserve has decided to increase interest rates by 25 basis points, reaching a range of 5.25% to 5.50%, marking the highest level seen in 22 years. Market participants widely anticipated this move as the Fed resumed its tightening campaign. In their statement, the Fed expressed a positive outlook on economic growth, acknowledging that economic...
The US Interest Rate chart has been trading within a Descending Broadening Wedge and has recently broken out of the wedge. The target for a pattern like this is typically back to the inception of the pattern, which in this case would be 20%; but we also have an additional variable here, and that's the Potential Logscale Harmonic Formation we've made here. If we...
XLRE is trying to breakout of a small basing formation. With rates surging recently one has to question a potential failure of this breakout, however if it does breakout there may be some significant momentum to the upside. Could this breakout coincide with a sudden drop in rates?
Apple share price (AAPL) plot above, inverted real rates (0-REAINTRATREARAT10Y) plot below + 1M 200ma, from 1983 to 2023. Results: -Strong inverse correlation with 10-year real interest rates and AAPL share price. -Real rates < 2 % positively correlate with stronger AAPL returns. -10-year real interest rates bounced from the 2 % level in September 2022 ......
In April, UK GDP grew by 0.2% m/m, recovering from the previous month's decline of -0.3% m/m. The rebound was driven by the services sector, with services expanding by 0.3% m/m and contributing 0.26 percentage points to overall GDP growth. The wholesale and retail sector, as well as the information and communication sector, made significant contributions. However,...
USD/CAD faces downside pressure as the Loonie outpaces the decline in the USD Index. The pair has dropped sharply, reaching the support level of 1.3300 after encountering resistance at 1.3320. Upbeat oil prices provide support for the Canadian dollar, as investors anticipate a neutral interest rate policy from the Federal Reserve. This positive sentiment reduces...