The underlying USD devaluation seems little changed on the whole despite the Coronavirus hijack. Volatility is subdued as seen in the diagram below, which is making it very simple for large sizings to enter as was the case in 2007. The USD weakness (which is a lot clearer on the Monthly chart) is a significant component in the reflation trade, growth...
A superb time to update the AUDNZD chart after a fresh technical breakup yesterday. The Q4 prints from antipodeans is very positive and actually triggering a slightly hawkish tilt by the RBA. Despite the brutal domestic story in Australia with bushfires and coronavirus spillovers, Scott Morrison has done the heavy lifting via housing policies. There is a lot of...
On the NZ side a superb round of employment data for Q419 which is overshooting market expectations clashing with global USD strengthening via commodity currency softening. For the 2020 diagram the outlook is crystal clear although the immediate picture is slightly more blurred with Chinese growth concerns spilling over to weigh on NZD. The RBNZ are on hold...
The breakout in play at the $10,000 barrier a level which is itself protected. Another possibility is to remove the "profit taking" from consolidating underneath of the level. The sizings from China are impressive and more generally markets happy to take on risk after achieving a lot of sufficient PBOC support. Buyers intend to increase the power of the threat...
China returning from LNY and an (un)lucky -8% selloff taking the headlines as SHCOMP catches up to the bleeding across Global Equities since last week. Well done those that caught the move we traded live here: A flawless -8% leg in a single gap; as long as the full extent in the impact of this virus remains unclear it will be difficult for SHCOMP to get back...
Markets are focused on three topics this week: (i) The 4Q 2019 Earnings season, (ii) coronavirus spillover concerns and (iii) Sanders performance in Caucuses. In US Yields the picture is crystal clear on the Long-term chart, for those following the 1.50% support level we are tracking on the daily you will note where the strength in defence comes from in the medium...
A quick update that I will try to keep relatively short for those charting the US10Y we have important updates after markets struggled to shake off risks from China. The support in Yields is starting to form a bullish basing pattern, although the medium term structure is weaker the immediate horizon looks strong and stable above the 1.50 line in the sand. ...
A good time to review the previous floor at 60.xx that we have been tracking for almost a year in $GILD. Here taking the latest misses in Q4 Earnings with a pinch of salt as the red carpet has been rolled out for Gild via China. Once again another buying opportunity given the latest progress around Phase III clinical trials: On the Remdesivir (GS-5734) side,...
Here I had been expecting (at last!) a pullback and been prepared to add on dips, the market is cutting through the highs like a knife and hot butter... a nice problem to have. Buyers are threatening to trigger capitulation on the Weekly: This is a textbook example of how to exploit soft hands, but with a rather pleasant twist. In what follows, I will...
EOS moving pretty much in sync with the rest of the Crypto board and broader USD devaluation. Strong inflows will continue to move it out of the range with upside pressure coming from the Global reflationary theme. Here being constructive on EOS and triggering ahead of the anticipated breakout, though has not yet developed the move will only be invalidated with a...
I was hoping for a continuation of the EOS rally that started in Q419 and we got exactly that. I didn't really expect such a significant move higher in such a short space of time, however I will take that !! An absolutely flawless +85% rally since we began loading: It was in EOS that I saw the biggest interest with offshore real and fast crypto accounts...
A fresh and new instrument to the @ridethepig Tradingview portfolio. Tenge finding a strong bid with a lot of air below to the next target area. Tenge is definitely oversold and cheap compared to other valuations in EM FX space, the attractive carry is worth playing if you have Oil or RUB in the playbook. A quick recap of the Oil Macro chart: From a...
Bulls now have a solid position, since the opposing break is sellers biting on granite!! The lows cannot be broken, here we are tracking spillover risk-off flows from PBOC in USDJPY, Gold and SHCOMP in particular; Firstly USDJPY : Secondly SHCOMP : Bulls now on the one hand wants to trap sellers but on the other hand wants to load as much as...
Risk markets recovering, well done all those who voted to buy the dip overnight in the Asian bounce. PBOC suturing the wound (for now). On the macro side, strong data from the US manufacturing side should be taken with a pinch of salt as was helped massively via phase 1 and too soon to measure any viral impact. Flow wise, I noticed a lot of fast money clients...
Let's start by getting our bearings. Firstly we are talking about the candidate... the swing in play. When there is a fleeing enemy in front and soft hands are protecting the resistance, it's important to understanding timing and when to advance and conquer. The swing and initial target was completed at 1595.xx. Although the target has been achieved the...
Here a very good time to update the Daily chart in EURUSD as we approach the infamous "Loading Zone" at 1.104x for the European close. A temporary reprieve for US data but in this case sellers have already exposed their stops on the highs while buyers continue to load on the ranks. The exchange/consolidation in the short-term flow makes it possible for...
Here we have another fast flow for NZD over the coming sessions; AUD and NZD have both under pressure and making fresh lows. The “Giant Panda” has turned off its lights for a while to contain the spread of the coronavirus meaning the underlying PBoC bid supporting both AUD and to a lot lesser extent NZD remains absent. For the 2020 Macro Map in NZD: An...
An important update to the CNH chart after the latest coronavirus measurements and impact calculations. PBOC stepped in as expected to stop the bleeding and SHCOMP ending the day with a lucky -8%: In the FX market, the impact will show over the coming sessions as demand for CNH increases with capital rushing to the doors. This is not a healthy technical...