Risk markets remain on the back-foot with no one wanting to get caught badly on the wrong side via COVID-19 haven flows. You can see this in USDJPY, after the awful GDP prints (still yet to see virus impact) the reaction was so muted. Markets remain at the mercy to gyrations in patient and death counts, I am sticking with the shorts from 109.7x/8x although by no...
With US away from their desks today we will get a dull session and the relentless loonie bid will grind us back towards the 1.3275x area. It is a good value level to re-engage with shorts and here looking to add ahead shorts there ahead of local CPI on Wednesday. The MT and LT outlooks for Canada are very good in my books; A bullish USD view on risk via...
On the Turkey side we have updates coming from the local banks, a lot of interest in USD exposure as TRY is set to suffer further via spillover effects. The EM FX is all centred around coronavirus flows and the knock-on impact this will have on global growth, here looking for a dip back towards the lows, a fresh sweep would make it very easy to trade going into...
Important updates on the UK side for those in UK related assets. A game changer cabinet reshuffle to put a 🍒 picked “Yes man” in the Treasury. Downing Street making renovations and now in full control of not only No.10 but also No.11 (and scarily soon to be the BOE next month). Sunak will turn the fiscal taps on full blast, the fuel behind fiscal stimulus will...
This chart comes after a request from @radyan899464 and a very good time to update the chart as we reach strong support from the initial wave of profit taking after our large swing. Those tracking the previous swing can see in the diagram here: 1595 triggered a lot of profit taking and covering, we are now entering into accumulation and once again get ready...
Models make it hard to add any longs to USDCHF here at the highs, risk opening the floodgates for a -1.5% short, mainly stemming from a notable pick up in demand for CHF after the latest shift in risk sentiment. Here tracking the risks related to coronavirus that imply the Eurozone growth will take another hit (as if things were not already difficult enough for...
A quick short-term update here with another storm of risk coming our way for the weekend. This time it will damage the late crypto buyers with a correction. We have already had intense orders and impressive sizings seen in Tokyo and before the NY open. A real risk of a healthy pullback as that ridge of high pressure from Coronavirus spillover effects enter into...
It is obvious that we are trading extended levels in US Equities and to a lesser extent Europe too. The blockader above from Tokyo yesterday must come as a surprise as Europe were inclined to buy the dip. What is surprising is that the resistance assigned to the current range at 3380 is serving its function of the highest order. So it ought to seem quite normal to...
All 👀 on EUR with heavy sells mounting from some of the biggest sharks in the business. It’s difficult to find anything positive on the macro side in Europe at the moment, and notably I am getting an increasing amount of questions from clients with the same exhaustion. With German uncertainty, ECB emergency cuts making the rounds and when you look at positioning...
The starting position has been difficult to reach for the 3rd impulsive wave after coronavirus risk-off flows hijacked the move. But what now? Either a breakdown to close the gap from French elections in 2017 or an imminent reversal to kickstart the leg; of course if only the positional obligation was not so appealing at these levels for longs because we are...
A round of GBP chart updates after the latest cabinet reshuffle. A nice sweep of the highs and we are set to go with the fiscal taps set to rain down and attempt to offset the impact via brexit. On the other side we have risk taking the spotlight again with coronavirus flows not abating. JPY is set to outperform over the coming sessions with a soft selloff...
A good time to update the daily chart in EURCHF with Euro starting to trade firmer on the crosses and the CHF run beginning to show signs of unwinding. The 1.074x is starting to look very weak and will give way to sweep all the way down towards 1.062x, here looking to increase exposure; should we visit 1.080x I will not hesitate to increase sizings. For those...
A timely update to the FX strategy for GBP with particular focus on Cable. On the UK side, we have loud messages from Europe around the difficulty for both sides to reach an agreement by year-end. Although typical in a game of high-stakes chess, this is a heavy weight on Sterling. On the US side, a solid round of data prints last week from wages to...
Turkey continues to stand out on the EM FX board, USDTRY finding strong support at the 5.97xx with sizeable USD demand signals from local Turkish banks. These same banks will be quick to cover should we breach the 6.00 handle and vulnerable to a squeeze once engaged. In the very immediate term EM FX will be hijacked by the ebb and flow of coronavirus...
A very advanced playing field in commodities and commodity currencies and with offshore sharks on the sell side in USDRUB there is a lot more room to go. The highs at 63.50 will act as strong resistance while to the downside initial targets located at 62.7x, 61.5x and the final swing clear at 60. This is the same levels from the previous diagram: No surprises...
I will keep this one very quick as not much interest in KZT. On the technical side we have a very clean and simple legs to track here, nothing to change my view of the gravitational pull back towards normality circa 310 in the coming weeks. Heavy USD sells continue from locals nad in my books a matter of time before we are -18% from the original entries: ...
An interesting addition to the Oil dynamics with OPEC cuts coming in March clashing with risk-off flows via coronavirus spillovers and everything else in-between. There is a lot going on; highly recommend tracking the retrace leg in Oil for this one it is really going to act as the main driver for us to lean on over the coming sessions. We can track accurately the...
LTC will continue to reduce liquidity. Not sure how effective that is going to be at containing this environment though. A move towards 93 is a matter of when rather than if. Happy to sit in LTCUSD longs for now, the move is unstoppable at the moment. If BTC and cryptos can have a strong couple of days, spot could easily touch 90 this week. Stay long Litecoin. ...