A bloodbath across most of Asia with SHCOMP managing to hold via PBOC intervention. Actively sold the Tokyo close as red alerts have been triggered across Global EQ Index. Those familiar with the current technical flows we are tracking will remember the PBOC dip; it was a classic example of CB intervention in attempt to stop the bleeding. The issue is that...
Until this advanced coronavirus move was played, the flow had been relatively straight-forward, a smooth transition of the Titanic turning was more an ideal than reality. This corresponds to the process I have remarked on, that the US face a choice between a weaker USD or a weaker Equity market. The lack of restraint from Powell gives way to a mechanical swing...
The struggle for democracy is being carried out and as long as Erdogan remains at the helm there is only one direction for TRY. Autocrats are typically sticky in nature and difficult to remove, the attack should first be aimed at the currency which will be the base of the capitulation. Attacking the 7.8 will break local bank and looks imminent as markets receive...
Gold undershooting at the 2012 highs are failing to clear 1700 by crumbs was screaming signals that the market was exhausted, and that it would take more than a coronavirus pandemic to move higher. Notice the size of the wick with all the profit taking place it produced a bearish monthly (and weekly) pattern: The handbrakes have been pulled, Central Banks are...
A very busy few weeks in markets, finally @ridethepig with some spare time for a whole round of chart updates across the FX board and beyond. On the monetary side, a whole new raft of FED cutting expectations entered the room via coronavirus impact leg on Equities and forced the FED into a surprise -50bps cut. Markets are sticking the knife in and keeping more...
This is a quick update to do with pricing in rates, or what's already priced in rate market ... I wont try my best to keep it short and sweet. I have been receiving many PM's and comments around how do we know when the Fed cuts are fully priced in? For example the -50bps that the market forced earlier in the week...everybody knew they were coming, they just...
An insane move across Yields with historic outflows, I am expecting some relief over the coming weeks but we the lows are still open for a 5th wave sequence. This target will worryingly come into play at 0.20x! We have intentionally covered the Credit Spreads together here in order to see what is "challenging" in the US economy: Such compensation is...
The pair is performing with little trouble for sellers, it has been absolutely hammered as Global Equities and Yields come under further pressure via Coronavirus impact. After a conversation with @FT_Lexicon we can discuss the importance of flanking and comparing with EURCHF is vital here, we can realise why there is not the same room for SNB intervention as there...
As confidence in CBs monetary system begins to collapse we are going to see strong demand for BTC and other major cryptos. Here tracking a breakup back to the highs after the recent Fed flop. Powell capitulating and surprising markets with a rate cut which helped risk assets although the caveat was panic. Markets are rightfully questioning what role monetary...
A playable break here in euro, with a more solid resistance found at 1.124x which seems to be the next target for buyers. Now DAX sellers are entering back into the picture which will keep EUR in bid and help us corner our opponent up slowly before a momentum break, though this attempt could be better seen in German Equities: The position which is reached is...
Powell capitulating and surprising markets with a rate cut which helped euro crack the 1.12 handle. After a nice pullback we are right back to the starting point in time for the NY session. The drivers remain the same for now, (i) bearish on risk via virus impact, while (ii) bullish on risk via Sanders fading into the distance provides the pullbacks. The...
As those following the latest Macro charts in Euro will know, the philosophy of EUR finding a strong bid will constitute good criteria for the devaluation of German Equities and rule out any possibility of setting new all time highs. This is crunching time for the Fiscal side in Europe, if Germany start to use the fiscal side then the logical follow up is EUR...
For risk markets, historic times with US10Y breaking through 1.00, the 50bp cut is really sends ⚠️ signals that things are not as healthy as they made out as ECB insist they have no room to follow the Fed. Buckle up and remain defensive guys, I am adding USDJPY shorts on the day with targets 106.9x and 106.5x below. Stops needed to be above 107.9x. For those...
A short update here essentially with one intention to shed some light over the pending impulsive wave for Numeraire. Bulls wish to occupy the retrace, a swing in order to deliver; but if he tries to crack resistance at 99.000 bears have time to prevent him doing so. So the correct move here is loading on the retrace into our loading zone, leading sellers into...
Risk markets are starting to form a temporary floor via BOJ stepping in and suture the wound. Volatility is set to remain high for the coming days, Asian stocks finding a bid from the usual dip buyers while USDJPY has started to bounce from last week’s move. Looking to sell any rallies into 109.2x as we have not seen the end of the storm in currencies yet. ...
The euro finding more demand overnight with Italy behaving and looking for help on the fiscal side. Risk markets are cooking a s/t rebound via co-ordinated global policy intervention; by no means is this the end of the virus but the underlying negative tone we have been witnessing across mainstream media is starting to soften this week. Global Central Bank...
Even BTC could not avoid the exodus from risk last week. Positioning isn't the problem in this case as the market is back to Jan levels, a clean sweep of the soft hands to reset play ahead of the halving ... We can expect to see a broad recovery of Crypto this week on the back of co-ordinated CB policy intervention, I still favour trading BTC from the long...
Eyes on the technical breakdown in CADNOK to kickstart the week, a few important updates to make here as intervention begins globally from Central Banks and OPEC. For those tracking Oil you will know we got the massive meltdown that we have been expecting in the chart-pack since last year: I am tracking a much larger than expected cut from OPEC at...