A major breakdown ahead of the open as markets catch up to the virus disruptions. AUD and global trade are set to suffer for sometime, it will take a brave man to step against this flow. On the monetary side, RBA tee'd up a rate cut in April with another in Q3 on the cards. Housing has already done the heavy lifting, will need A LOT more help from elsewhere to...
Here we go for a round of important chart update on the FX, Commodity and Equity board... I do not subscribe to the idea of this being the start of the euro reserve currency rally which we were tracking earlier in the year that failed from the Coronavirus short-circuit, although it is certainly moving with speed. Remember we have month end flows in play now too...
I will try to keep this one relatively short, a very important update to the German 10-year benchmark yield. This is one to track as it is coming after a fresh attempt of a breakdown in EURUSD for the NY open. Here we can see important macro forces in play with extreme risk on the radar via Coronavirus with large sharks being forced to reposition and rebalance...
A fresh round of poll updates from Germany with CDU/Green coalition in play: => CDU/CSU-EPP: 28% => GRÜNE-G/EFA: 23% => SPD-S&D: 12% => AfD-ID: 11% (-1) => LINKE-LEFT: 9% => FDP-RE: 9% We are marking the highs as widely mentioned previously in the 2020 Dax Macro Map: Markets are unable to shrug off risk from Coronavirus and we are spreading into...
On the macro chart we are still chopping around the same lows that will mark the ending of a currency cycle alongside a turn in commodities. The coronavirus expectation and impact legs are short-circuiting the reflationary trade that markets were so eager to jump on board with towards the back-end of 2019. Sadly numbers outside of China keep growing and...
On the risk side, US10Y bouncing from the lows while Global Equities attempt to form a s/t floor. Central Bank co-ordinated policy is only a matter of time, markets have forced FED, ECB, BOC, BOJ, BOE and everything in-between to kiss the hand and keep rate cuts on the table. JPY is itching to resume dancing the same rhythm but given USD demand via month end...
Here we go for another important NY session … EURUSD holding the 🔑 1.09xx test of resistance ahead of the open as expected. Markets notably anxious of further outbreaks which (sadly) seems unavoidable now. I spotted a lot of euro supply from corporates this morning. Remaining short is perfectly reasonable assuming the current highs hold this PM, targets are...
Play may go as far a 1.115%. A counterattack from FED needed to save Equities... BTFD always wins? Not this time...When major forces on both sides come together, it comes down to a sort of exchange case 1, which we shall call: " Selling life as expensive as possible " Buyers play ... Sellers happy to exchange at the resistance line, but since FED is...
A very important weekend across the globe. Italy, Iran and SK weighing heavy on virus sentiment as capital rushes out the doors. Any hopes of a Q2 rebound are starting to fade and that USD haven demand we’ve seen of late looks set to continue. All eyes this week remain on virus watch, a muted/slightly dovish Lagarde expected on the wires and here happy to sell...
Part I - Chapter 1 The Gold Swing 1. General remarks => The base of the swing => The idea of two clashing forces After the impressive leg: ...we have a completed Gold swing trade. The legs A, B and C are individual moves in the swing; a zigzag should be considered a retrace and in this case while inside a second wave that serves a function for the...
Here tracking 1.295x as the level to recycle and load more shorts. Well done those following from the original short-term swing which was triggered on the cabinet reshuffle (see diagram below). As widely expected GBP suffering as markets began to look towards the EU negotiations kickstarting in March. Both sides are very wide apart and no-deal Brexit looks set for...
Highlights of the week going to USDJPY exploding to the topside and catching many with their pants down (myself included). In times of extreme panic even the USD can outperform JPY as a safe haven currency. Japanese economy is coughing badly in all data fronts and considering the geographical location relative to the virus it makes it hard to find reasons to park...
The outflows from Poland have been staggering to say the least, large sharks abandoning ship before the storm reaches shore. Notice how the NBP (National Bank of Poland) has been dovish even though inflation ticks higher ...everything is fine right... We traded the PLN devaluation versus CZK previously, now I prefer EURPLN longs as my 'weapon' of choice....
With Javid out Johnson had the perfect cherry pick with Rishi Sunak and now the fiscal taps can be turned on full. This medium-term swing is starting to look very interesting which is unlocking a leg towards 1.20xx and 1.15xx below: Rishi is a typical yes man, he will do whatever Johnson wants. Those behind the curtain know it was another flawless beheading...
The poor sellers! On a move they had to defend, they failed miserably and now buyers are off on their journey! Any sellers now will be perish, we can continue the destination towards our 1600-1610 first target area. For those tracking the initial leg from the PBOC defence, the very lows at 1550 where sellers bit into granite: You notice how fluid the move is,...
On the Equities front sentiment is starting to shift once again towards the negative side with offloading being done at the highs. After clearing Powell focus is shifting back towards the pressures on earnings from Coronavirus and spillovers, not expecting much more room to the topside in the immediate term. Investors do not like the headlines from China with...
XRP buyers... Creatures of habit, that love warmth of familiarity. By keeping the smell of the past alive they commit to more exposure only to later have the rug pulled again. This does not change the state of play for BTC, those following the long term diagram in BTC have started to reach the first profit taking area and with that XRP like a farmer who has lost...
Trotting higher as ever and currently challenging the key $4.50 flip. I noticed better local RM EOS buying too, and I think that the coin could remain bullish until $7.5 before we see any serious official profit taking. I'd use any dips to enter shorts. The same flows that have been in play since the pullback: It remains the darling of Altcoins. High funding...