Sold this pair earlier with TP at S3 pivot line and SL a few pips above S1 (which is also near it's daily high) to ride the recent risk-off related to increasing geopolitical risks and also weaker than expected Chinese inflation report. www.dailyfx.com www.dailyfx.com www.dailyfx.com Daily: Weekly: Confidence: A (there's still risk that this pair...
LONG VIX SEPT FUT @12.8 TP 16-20VOLS 1. Fading risk sentiment - back of googl, msft, fb strong earnings not able to push market higher implying risk bid is over. 2. Time value - 7wks for this view to play out. I expect maturity in around 2wks but an extra 5wks of float is only positive.
We are about to transition from a risk-ON inflationary environment to a risk-OFF inflationary environment. That means bond yields might fall even though inflation is rising. The US has been a huge beneficiary of the risk-ON move and as a result should see outflows. That means lower equities, and a weaker dollar. Given a falling dollar, rising inflation, and...
LONG USDJPY: 1. Slightly late posting this position but we got long at 104.5 earlier today. The rationale behind owning USD VS JPY is as follows. USD risks are bid 1) in the run up to the 2015 dec hike USD traded extremely bid with DXY breaking through 100, based on the last 2wks i expect USD to mirror 2015 and continue the bid tone we have seen both in...
LONG USDJPY: 1. Slightly late posting this position but we got long at 104.5 earlier today. The rationale behind owning USD VS JPY is as follows. USD risks are bid 1) in the run up to the 2015 dec hike USD traded extremely bid with DXY breaking through 100, based on the last 2wks i expect USD to mirror 2015 and continue the bid tone we have seen both in...
Long XAUUSD: 1. Based on the last 16yrs of daily close data (since 01/01/2000 to date) XAUUSD has a cumulative probability of a =>7th day lower at 0.3%, hence there is a implied 99.7% chance of reversal on the daily. 2. Technically there is also some nice structure about the 1250 level. 3. Fundamentally I think risk is priced very cheaply here, although...
Long XAUUSD: 1. Based on the last 16yrs of daily close data (since 01/01/2000 to date) XAUUSD has a cumulative probability of a =>7th day lower at 0.3%, hence there is a implied 99.7% chance of reversal on the daily. 2. Technically there is also some nice structure about the 1250 level. 3. Fundamentally I think risk is priced very cheaply here, although...
Gold Positioning - Buy @ Market; 1350TP1 1370TP2 - 1 lot (small) and add double every daily close lower - 1lot, 2lots tomorrow, 4lots the next day: 1. Risk sentiment looks to be turning south, particularly in US equities which have seen monthly lows which is consistent with the broad equity valuation correction lower that i have been expecting for the past few...
GBPJPY: 1. Given Fed Yellen's "hawkish" market response and GBPUSD, GBPNZD and GBPAUD shorts TPd on the rally lower today cleared (FX risk book clear too), im looking to add some safe haven assets to my portfolio. 2. Looking at GBPJPY and GBP structures on the whole, there has been alot of sterling longs in the past 2wks accumulating in spot as economic...
Yellen as interpreted by the market was bullish, though price action immediately following the JH Speech Highlights was anything but this clear cut and imo said alot more about what was actually said i.e. there is still uncertainty/ no clear commitment, as DXY moved higher immediately after before aggressively selling off for the next 20-30minutes, before then...
SPX 1. Correlation/ Technical analysis - SPX has set up the most predictable price action I have ever seen - confirmed by two EXACT 0.55% moves higher and the last 4 moves have been almost exactly 2weeks. 2. Price action currently shows exhastion has set in and there will either be 1) another bull exhastion leg 3 (+0.55%) to 2206 OR 2) A sell-off will begin...
SPX Bull run 1. Post Brexit US equities have been in an easing induced rally, with the Fed delaying hikes, BOE easing and RBNZ/ RBA also easing - this encouraged US risk markets to set new highs - with 7 of the last 9 weeks strong closes higher. The Bull run over? 1. The last 2wks have closed flat but hhave remained rangey indicating the market has low...
Interestingly the RTRS poll for Aug has a bullish near-term bias for $yen vs in July - my opinion is contrary to their poll as the BOJ and JPY MOF failed to deliver the hype expected/ promised this past week - i think 101/2 is much more likely for the next 3 months vs their 103.8. Comments from PM Abe, MOF and BOJ minutes that we observed in the Asia session were...
End of the bull run Global Equity Indexes: 1. SPX/ Global Equity indexes in the past 2/3wks saw a post-brexit central bank easing induced rally, as many CB released dovish statements following the vote which spurred investor confidence in fresh easing. - IMO much of the bull run was based on BOJ easing hopes, given the size of the economy (4th largest)...
SNB President T. Jordan comment highlights: - If Needed, Can Cut Rates Further - 50bps to 1.25% possible until negative rates turn less effective - Big Concern Over Significantly Overvalued CHF in 2016 risk-off dominated year - CHF 3m Libor prices 80% chance of a 25bps cut (-0.75 to -1.00%) within 3 months (was only 40% before brexit) - Low bond yields not...
BOJ Miss: 1. BOJ deliver one of the biggest misses in history (vs expectations/ pressure) - only increasing ETF purchases and dollar funding by apprx $60bn annual in total vs 10-20bps of Depo and LSP cuts + 5-20trn in QE increase + ETF increase. *See attached post for in-depth detail on the BOJ situation and price action history/ Yen strength/ Safe havens* ...
BOJ Miss - Sell GBPJPY @Market price; 129tp1 - up to 800pips. 1. A BOJ miss can be considered as delivering the median expectations e.g. 10bps cut to the depo (-0.2%), 10bps cut to the LSP (-0.1%), Yen10trn increase in monthly JGB purchases & 50% Increase in Annual ETF purchases e.g. 3.3trn-5trn. Fiscal Stimulus Yen10-15trn. - The package above or less...
- As many of you know ive been tracking/ am keen on this whole macro "net risk sentiment" theme to gauge what direction markets are heading in for the day/ week/ several weeks. - We started today as planned, with both safe havens and risk asset relatively flat, before risk-on sentiment dominated early trading with yen breaking out the 107 level and equity indexes...