Get started

Riskoff

DXY D1 - Bullish Break ExpectedDXY D1 With the above being said... 'key global topics' and other comments, we have to understand the market correlation and timeframes... We can take yesterdays D1 close with a pinch of salt, due to inconsistent volume, but lets see where we close after today (hoping support holds). US based FX and commodities look like they want to be correcting somewhat. Which might see DXY dip below support. US stock space is slower paced and a little delayed. So correlation isn't going to be 100% inverted.
TVC:DXYLong
by Trade_Simple_FX
Bear Ribbon and Pennant!(Updated Chart)I apologize for my last chart as I did it from a cell phone. Here we can see a clear sign of a Bear Ribbon/Pennant forming to indicate a continued trend. Usually pointing to halfway through a drop. With the FED finally lowering its balance sheet, China's Economy is now mainstream news, Global Bond Yield surging, S&Ps report on the economy, and it's still getting worse. We are in a recession! Risk Off. Recommend a study on Commodities. (Sorry about the Scaling on the chart.)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by NotoriousJimbo
Bitcoin Descending Channel$BTC has followed the broader bear market rallies without departure from the continued descending channel with the weekly 20 EMA closing in on the 200 EMA and the 50 tightening against the 100 EMA. Since late October 2021 and the ATH set in November, a clear bearish trend has set up as inflation has ripped, the Federal Reserve has increased rates to what they laughingly call "neutral" while FTX has focused on bailing out over-leveraged hedge funds and VC's. Within the past week, we've seen the Treasury Dept sanction Tornado Cash mixer due to concerns of money laundering... regardless of the case's merits, headwinds remain strong while the bear market rally has been resilient. Price action is coming to a decision point with the end of August approaching and the weekly candles coming back to the upper channel limit. Given the broader market headwinds and no clear pivot from the Fed, the likelihood of continued sideways chop is about as probable as the bear market rally fading away with more severe retracement. A bullish scenario would be a move towards testing $29.3k (heavy pink line) but is much less probable until we see the Fed pivot. Sideways chop would be continued PA between approx $19k and $24k while further retracement levels are defined. Most bearish scenario would be the heavy white line around intersecting with the $6.3k upper channel by January 2023. Risk off remains most likely considering Nasdaq following the dot.com bubble and close attention must be paid to the 1970's rolling peaks of inflation throughout the decade. We're not at a point to be bullish although volatility for swing trading long/short positions and scalping remain viable for skilled traders with a high degree of risk acceptance.
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by UnknownUnicorn20630062
Upside for Gold as rate expectation cooled by recession riskSummary The surge in energy and agricultural commodities in the past 6 months had materialized into serious inflation even down to the consumer end across the globe. To cope with inflation, the Fed has begun to raise rate at an accelerating pace. The rise in the interest rate of the USD causes dysfunction of traditional risk haven such as Japanese Yen FX:USDJPY and Gold COMEX:GC1! . However, with more evidence that the US is very close to a recession, the Fed might need to tune down to a more cautious approach to balance between taming inflation and speeding up recession due to higher borrowing cost (and debt repayment) for business. The stabilization in rate hike might soften the already strong dollar, hence providing room for traditional risk haven assets to rebound and restore some of their risk haven property . With still ongoing global political uncertainty (see appendix for more detail), there might be further upside potential beyond rebound. One should pay extra attention to the collective transition of power globally which is happening at a similar time coincidentally. Technical and trade planning Just like most commodities, the dominant force driving gold downward is the strength of the USD. The US Dollar Index TVC:DXY had reached a new high at 107.786, before retracing back to 106.895 to close lower last Friday, creating a reverse hammer candle. While the uptrend of the dollar index is still effective, however the bearish pattern hinted the peak might have reached (or at least the upside momentum is reducing) . Similar pattern in reverse was seen in many commodities including gold, which means opportunity for rebound trade. Note that gold currently is trading below most moving averages which means the downtrend is still in power. 20 days moving average trading below the 50 days, and both pointing downward double confirm the bearish view. In rebound trade it is very important to keep your cut loss and profit taking tight. One should also adopt strategies that allow more tolerance for error (e.g. longing call option with >30-60 days to expiration). Here are some technical levels trader of gold should be aware of: Downside support (to cut loss if dropped through) 1676.7: 2021-Aug hammer candle bottom 1721.8: 2021-Sep downside retest bottom Upside resistance (to take profit if fail to go further) 1785: May-16 bottom (broke on Jul-5) 1833: 250 days moving average 1878.6: Jul-3 rebound peak Appendix: Political events to keep an eye on Asia The former prime minister of Japan, Shinzo Abe was assassinated last Friday. Abe was seen as the de facto power of Japan. He initiated and was involved in lots of Japan economic policy and China-Japan relation issues. Close ties with global leaders, he was one of the early promoters of threat emerging from growing China, which later led to global boycott of China. He also showed his support to Taiwan as he saw the country as the first line of defense of Japan from China. One of his unaccomplished goals was to revise the country’s pacifist constitution to formalize the Japanese self-defense force as army, and broaden its military agenda outside of homeland defense, to be involved in regional security issues, such as Taiwan. The death of Shinzo Abe might help the constitutional revision to gain more supportive votes, which will worsen China-Japan existing tension. The 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party will take place in November this year. One of the major topics is whether the current Chinese leader Xi Jinping will be re-elected for the next 5-years term. With lots of policy missteps that have caused material harm to the Chinese economy and financial stability, there are growing voices within the party that they might want a leader who can focus on reviving the Chinese economy instead of political ideals. At the same time, Xi is neutralizing the opposition force by revealing their evidence of misconduct and corruption (same strategy 10 years ago). The upcoming continuation or transition of power in China is going to be a very tricky one. Europe No end in sight for Russian invasion toward Ukraine, albeit increasing military support by the western powers. Inflation continues to make record highs in Europe with latest June CPI figures standing at 8.6%, energy talk with Russia is going to be very difficult especially for natural gas which is virtually impossible to get supply from other continents. The prime minister of the UK, Boris Johnson had resigned last week amid back-to-back scandals , with the Chris Pincher case became the last straw that broke the camel's back. The United States Recession risk, high gasoline price, baby formula shortage, the series of unfortunate events had taken a toll on the president Joe Biden approval rate, which dropped to just 30% in the new national poll. The negative sentiment toward democrats is likely to make the republicans take control of both the senate and the house. The democrats probably can take advantage of the recent Supreme Court’s decision of overturning Roe v. Wade, however the edge might not be enough to change much according to the latest forecast.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by geoffreyip523
RISK ON vs RISK OFF ✅✅✅Hello traders! ✅ Today we will talk about RISK ON vs RISK OFF Market Sentiment as I use this confluence to enter trades. Risk ON vs Risk OFF market sentiment reflects all the market activity, its not a market sentiment for crypto or forex or stock market its for all the financial markets, when i use this confluence i try to understand what are institutional/retail investors are doing are they buying risk on assets or they are buying risk on assets. Usually investors buy risk on assets when they are looking for risk meaning they want higher yield on their investment they want to MULTIPLY money(key word) this is happening during times of financial prosperity, no wars, no lockdowns, no problems around the world everyone are doing great and making money On other side RISK OFF is when investors tend to buy financil assets that PROTECT (key word) their capital they dont want a high yield they want just to save their money and protect during time of financial stress, wars, lockdowns when everything is not clear and safe. ✅ RISK ON Assets Stock Market Crypto USOil AUD NZD CAD EUR GBP ✅ RISK OFF Assets Government Bonds JPY CHF USD GOLD SILVER
Education
by Snick3rSD
Gold Meets Resistance in the Mid $1800'sGold has found support exactly at $1836, one of our levels. We noted in previous reports that gold should find support at $1836 or $1826. From here we saw a pivot back to relative highs in the mid $1800's. Recall that we have a dense cluster of levels in the mid $1800's at $1857, $1857 and $1865. These align with relative lows from early May, and are currently acting as a barrier to higher prices. The Kovach OBV is tapering up slightly, but we will need more momentum to hit $1876, our next target. If we reject current levels, $1836 and $1826 should provide support.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by quantguy
Bonds Test Higher LevelsBonds have edged up higher, with ZN hitting our target of 121'00. This is a strong psychological and technical level. We are seeing a bit of a divergence between the price action and the Kovach OBV so unless more momentum comes thorugh, anticipate a dip or some ranging between 120'14 and 121'00. If we dip further, 119'23 should provide support. If we are able to break out further, then we have a fairly wide vacuum zone to the next level and target at 121'28.
CBOT:ZN1!Long
by quantguy
NZD/USD - BUY SET UP AS INTEREST RATES IN NEW ZEALAND RISE We are highly likely to see a strong recovery in the New Zealand Dollar Against the U.S Dollar as interest rates in New Zealand continue to rise. Markets expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to raise the cash rate to 3.50% by year-end, which will be a premium 0.75% to 1.00% Interest rate over the U.S. This means any investors holding short positions in NZD/USD will lose money holding the position open overnight. The U.S Dollar has been strong in recent weeks as stock markets have fallen due to the Federal Reserves' commitment to raising interest rates aggressively to contain inflation running at 8.30%. When stock markets fall globally, investors historically sell international currencies and flood into the safety of the U.S Dollar, as its the worlds reserve currency. However, when stocks recover as they always do, investors will quickly sell dollars and move back into international currencies as they invest globally in equities again, causing the dollar to weaken in exchange rates and push up NZD/USD.
Long
by KayansMarkets
RISK ON vs RISK OFF ‼️Today we will talk about RISK ON vs RISK OFF Market Sentiment as i use this confluence to enter trades. ✅ Risk ON vs Risk OFF market sentiment reflects all the market activity its not a market sentiment for crypto or forex or stock market its for all the financial markets, when i use this confluence i try to understand what are institutional/retail investors are doing the are buying risk on assets or they are buying risk on assets. ✅ Usually investors buy risk on assets when they are looking for risk meaning they want higher yield on their investment they want to MULTIPLY money(key word) this is happening during times of financial prosperity, no wars, no lockdowns, no problems around the world everyone are doing great and making money on viceversa risk off is when investors tend to buy financil assets that PROTECT (key word) their capital they dont want a high yield they want just to save their money and protect during time of financial stress, wars, lockdowns when everything is not clear and safe.
Education
by Snick3rSD
Move up exhaustedAUDUSD being one of the key risk on pairs, got very close to 0.73 which served already as resistance in January looks to be a likely turning point and return to strong sell off on Risk on assets (crypto and equities). DXY also breaking above recent levels continuing over a year long move from lows ahead of J Powell's speech later on today and ADP/NFP numbers this week. While it is hard to predict exact further impact from Ukraine conflict the most likely two scenarios are as presented, ranging between 0.7 - 0.73 or eventual break below 0.7. For those trading FX this is a good area for a safe Short trade.
Short
by gigisulivan
1
RISK ON vs RISK OFF ‼️Risk-on risk-off is an investment setting in which price behavior responds to and is driven by changes in investor risk tolerance. Risk-on risk-off refers to changes in investment activity in response to global economic patterns. During periods when risk is perceived as low, the risk-on risk-off theory states that investors tend to engage in higher-risk investments. When risk is perceived to be high, investors have the tendency to gravitate toward lower-risk investments. RISK ON - is when investor are looking to multiply their money, they are looking for RISK. MORE RISK - MORE MONEY RISK OFF - is when investors are looking to keep/save their money, they are looking to protect more than to RISK. MORE PROTECTION - LESS MONEY
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Snick3rSD
Bitcoin Bear Market ScenarioFollowing macroeconomic environment, with inflation reporting this week followed by upcoming central bank FOMC meeting in early may (rate hikes & balance sheet reductions)... the following high-level SR zones are key levels to watch. Assuming broader markets are going to experience a significant correction as the Fed loses ability to leverage QE & stimulus in propping up markets without hyperinflation risk, BTC as a risk-on asset will face significant headwinds. Without a changing economic environment, the markets will continue to realize bearish sentiment with more speculative assets (tech stonks & "digital asset technologies") realizing the most severe of pullbacks. FOMC in early May will attempt to reign inflation in, while June's FOMC meeting will include a more nuanced summary of economic projections given assessment of Q1 results as well as Q2 winding down.
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by UnknownUnicorn20630062
3
Gold targets 1910 dollars per ounceSupported by the news that Russia and Ukraine have held their fourth round of talks. Markets are taking a breather to retrace some of the risk-off movements that took place last week. After breaking below the key support level of 1950 dollars, gold has been gaining more bearish momentum. When looking for the next support and resistance levels, focus on the 1910-dollar cluster, which marks the 50% Fibonacci retracement as well as the support of a previously broken resistance high.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by MohannadYakout
HOT INFLATION DRIVING USDJPY CRAZY!With inflation running at decades high, USDJPY has been gaining a lot of momentum in the past few weeks driven by the FED's outlook on hiking rates. With the WAR between Russia & Ukraine contributing hugely to the already spiking inflation across the globe, the FED would probably be inclined to tame this by raising interest rates. But what is the FED's latest thinking and outlook would likely be known this week. With that said, both USD & JPY are safehaven currencies! With the development that's going on currently, the fundamentals are in favor of the USD here as the inflation fears is driving up the value of the greenback. Here on the main monthly chart, we can clearly see the price might meet a strong multi-month descending trendline resistance located at 118.500 area. From here onwards its in the FED hands directly as to what they plan to do to tame this hot inflation. Shall the FED decides to hike rates this year numerous times then we can expect this resistance to clear easily and the price can head towards the 120.000 psychological resistance with ease in the coming weeks and possibly higher in the future. On the other hand if the FED does not deliver, this resistance might hold and the prices might start heading lower. All in all this week might set the course as to where this pair might be headed in the future. Cheers, I hope you find this insight helpful. Please LIKE & FOLLOW for more insights on major currencies pairs.
Long
by FX618Analysis
Safe Haven Inflows Still Lifting Gold (For Now)Ukraine woes still weigh on global markets and although gold has retraced significantly, it is still hanging onto the high 1900's. Positive news is incoming as we compose this thread including Putin acknowledging "positive undertones" in Ukraine talks . We have given up the 2000's after touching highs at 2070. After finding support at 1982, we appear to be making a run for 2000 again, currently testing 1999 and hovering about 1995 or so at the time of this writing. The Kovach OBV is drifting downwards, suggesting a slight bear bias, but we have a lot of support levels below to buoy the price, including 1982, 1977, 1973, and 1964. It is doubtful we will slice through all of these, but watch the vacuum zone below to 1936. If we get a lift, then 2029, 2048, and 2070 are the next targets.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by quantguy
1
Bonds Test LowsBonds have smashed through relative lows in the mid 126's to find support at 126'00 which appears to be a technical and psychological level. We have added this as a technical level on the chart. ZN has been on a clear decline falling 3 handles from the 129's to the base of the 126's. The Kovach OBV is on a steady decline, but does appear to be leveling off suggesting we may find support here, or at least that the selloff may ease up. If not, the next target is 125'17. We do appear to be severely oversold and if we see a technical retracement into the bear trend we must break 126'11, where we are currently meeting resistance as confirmed by a red triangle on the KRI. After that, 126'19 and 126'28 are targets.
CBOT:ZN1!Short
by quantguy