Looking for 130 area as a target of the recent decline in coffee prices. Overall uptrend as indicated in upsloping orange trendline hasn't been broken yet Spreads are weak as well.
Wheat has excellent potential in coming weeks. Pay attention to COT report. Open the link finviz.com and proceed to the weekly chart of wheat. Notice that hedgers are spiking. The entry signal would be the spike in COT reports.
Update on a upsloping trendline (blue) which acts as resistance On the 5 hour chart, we should have generated a sell signal. I still remain short via puyt spread 1x2s, as frost is no longer an issue. It appears the market is still digesting this from last week and should correct lower IMHO as physical supplies out of Brazil remain steady. Warehouse stocks in...
Seems like no frost in Brazil. It was a busy weeks last week and throughout the weekend with fears a frost could hit coffee areas. None has been confirmed and worst fears did not play out. Once all of this is digested I expect some downside opportunities as the market goes back into trading technicals rather than emotions. Quite oversold and we saw sell...
Pro Long (Chart): - RSI and Stochastik created buy signal - Orange support line Pro Long (Physical): - ICE warehouse stocks new lows - spreads tightening ever so slightly Contra (Chart): - still in middle to upper end of trend channel - room to go in terms of lower Bollinger band - long term trend still down - risk/reward for long position not there IMHO I...
Cocoa is moving, I'm anticipating a bull run soon.
A good strong break of a longer time frame trendline and the 200 day SMA also came in close to that break. A nice retracement back to a key level and then closed lower. I am short at this level. Looks like it's starting the next leg down. 12.50 area may offer some support but it looks great so far.
Pro bullish: - Slight bullish divergence on RSI and Stochastik - market running into support at lower end of trend channel - lower Bband at lows - Spreads steady Pro neutral: - nothing clear cut yet in terms of buy signal This is a good risk reward IMHO
Starting to run into some support. Seasonally we are approaching lows as well in November. For me time to start looking into a long position IMHO. We are approaching the lower end of the trendchannel (valid since early this year), however there is an ups-sloping trendline that formed since the previous lows in September. I am also expecting this to be much of...
Took longer to develop as the market decided to test the upper level of the 3 year trend channel In the meantime, we had several bearish and bullish engulfing patterns and an up sloping trendline (orange) formed. The previous highs made at 15.50 developed and formed a divergence with RSI and Stochastik. Spreads were stable but collapsed as SB sold of on...
Looking for some downside correction as we reached the upper trend channel IMHO - Ran into resistance without follow through for today. - Overbought on daily chart - At upper BBands on weekly chart NOTE: - There is chatter of weather issues (drought) in Brazil, so I am cautious - Also, 9 day MA crossed 20 day, 50 and 100day MA north, so that is bullish too
Turning neutral and watching closely. I think good entry for e retracement IMHO - RSI & Stochastik with bearish indications and market is very overbought. - bearish engulfing and hanging man (confirmed with bearish engulfing) - spreads have been weak the last three days already indicating a trend change I am neutral with a bearish bias, but need more confirmation IMHO
RSI and Stochastik provided buy signals today, so I am turning from neutral to bullish. Spreads very strong across the board, which supports the signals generated. Strong support around 3029 held On Oct 15th, the NCA will release the updated Cocoa grind statistics. CAUTION: Moving averages are looking down, hence I am cautiously bullish
Turned from bullish to neutral as I got out or rolled most of the position. The late sell of at the end of the day confirmed my thoughts. Future Spreads are still firm, and on a weekly timeframe we still look quite bullish. USDBRL has come off from the highs, but is running into a little support. Prices could advance, but there is too much uncertainty, hence...
Moving from short to neutral as cocoa runs into support and seams to run out of steam. RSI and Stochastik are in oversold areas. Even though we didnt reach the red target line, I am cautious about the short position. Dec/Mar future spreads are firmer today indicating. Yet too early to reverse the position IMHO
I would have liked to see a divergence in RSI, Stochastik vs price, but it didn't happen this time; regardless a decent buy signal for coffee. Future spreads have been steady and unch in the recent days, suggesting a low is in place. USDBRL is a key indicator, if it continues to fall after hitting the triangle breakout target there might be more upside for KC
Cotton has been making an admirable bottoming attempt in the last few weeks, having seen a surge in volume unmatched in the prior rally attempts over the last several months. Positive divergence between weekly RSI/MACD and price continues providing bulls reason to push cotton towards its current downchannel resistance. With weekly RSI, Stochastics and MACD all...
We've received a few emails about the most recent move in GC and why we "didn't see it". We saw it but that is a small break inside of a much larger pattern. This trade is not in our trade plan and we choose to look for larger opportunities. Consult your weekly chart...it tells a better story of GC. If this continues to break we will look for entries but for...