Pull these charts up on your radar. They are key. With today’s spike on the VIX, we may see key resistance and support lines break. If any one of these critical trendlines/levels are broken, much more caution is warranted on the long side. Let’s quickly run through the charts I am observing. DXY - A break to the upside of that macro uptrend (with confirmation on...
US10Y / US02Y Spread Around Historically Lows I have presented the analysis of the US10Y/US02Y spread as clearly as I can - and I hope that the chart is self-explanatory! I, too, now assume that there will be a recession in the USA - at least two neagtive gdp annual grwoth rates. In a stagflation we are since july 2021 yet (higher monthly inflation rate as the...
The yield differential between two-year and ten-year US Treasury notes, known as the 2s10s spread, has reached its highest level since November 2015. The 2s10s spread, which describes the slope of the yield curve, receives a lot of attention from market analysts and has arguably been a strong indication of economic mood and expectations. Historically, a steep...
Play may go as far a 1.115%. A counterattack from FED needed to save Equities... BTFD always wins? Not this time...When major forces on both sides come together, it comes down to a sort of exchange case 1, which we shall call: " Selling life as expensive as possible " Buyers play ... Sellers happy to exchange at the resistance line, but since FED is...
Here we are tracking the final chapter in Wave IV, having cratered through the 61.8% retracement of the 2016/19 uptrend the next level to track is 1.24%. I expect losses will be capped below here to keep broader risks from cascading out of control. Whilst to the topside, resistance can be found at 1.96%, a previous corrective high. Markets have cornered the Fed,...
I have been talking about the curve steepening for some time after we cemented the lows. From a technical perspective, the breakout is implying a test of 60 over the coming weeks and months. The US 2s 5s Bond Curve also looks to be triggering a major break up: This will reflect a medium term breakout with large forces clashing against each other and...
A timely update to the 2s5s US Curve which is breaking higher with the resteepening after flattening from 2016. This breakout indicated we have marked a meaningful base with the next target in play at 29bps which is the measured target from a breakout. (1) Every other time this happened it ended badly for the global economy via recession. (2) A Fed that lags...
On the monthly we can argue the case for 2-year yields being inside a 4th wave correction of a 5 wave sequence since the cycle lows. This advance started in 2011 and for it to remain true we need to remain above the 50% retrace (1.761) which we are currently sitting on. Anything below here will put questions towards the nature of this rally and destroy...
Here we are tracking for a floor to form at the front end of the curve. We are currently sitting at key 1.761 support; this will attract buying interest and also mark a good level for shorts to begin unwinding. The congestion area below which includes extension targets will be enough to cap any squeeze/overshoots to the downside. I will also be uploading a...
The FOMC minutes are being released as I write this, but weak inflation seems to one of their key concerns. Expect the yield curve to continue to flatten as this gets priced into the long end. The spread between the US 30 year and Us 2 year has been careening off a cliff lately and given this news, it is safe to expect this trend to continue. The Kovach Chande...