As many try to put reasoning to the perennial grind higher in US equity markets, one clear factor is that the market sees one major difference between 2023 and 2024 – the ‘Fed put’ has been reborn and the metaphorical safety blanket for risky assets is back in the mix. Cast our minds back to January 2023, and investors were seeing inflation falling, with...
FOREXCOM:GBPUSD on the back of Powell's loyal speech regarding further rate cuts, but which he has now left unchanged, and also on the back of inflation, which is falling much slower than he would like, is strengthening and updating the high to 1.279 . On D1 we see how the price reacted to the news that came out on Wednesday. Price tests the MA-200 on...
The Volatility Index (VIX) is trading within a Channel Down pattern since the September 28 2022 High, which has also been the start of the 2023 recovery year for the stock markets (SPX illustrated by the thin black trend-line). Being negatively correlated in nature, when VIX declined within this Channel, the stocks rose and vice versa. Since October 23 2023, VIX...
We are not saying that the S&P500 won't complete this market wide desired rally in the last two weeks of the year. Even January could be bullish. But since the price is approaching the top of the 14 month Channel Up, while the 1d RSI is highly unsustainable deep into the overbought zone at 80.00, the market is most likely positioning itself for a strong technical...
Today, we would like to briefly discuss a few underlying trends in China's economy, touching on the subject of unemployment, demographics, and deflation. Youth unemployment While the unemployment situation has improved in 2023, youth unemployment (for those aged between 16 and 24) has been a longtime issue in China. Indeed, it has steadily risen since 2018...
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD is under selling pressure amid the global bull market. Earlier, the price updated the high to 2150, after which it formed a rather strong conglomerate of bearish patterns. Last trading week, the market rattled everyone's nerves. And the reason for that was the incompetence of the Fed as a structure that has a huge influence on the market. The...
We roll past a huge week of event risk, and you can’t beat a surprisingly dovish-interpreted turn from the Fed to get risk pumping in markets – but that is what we saw, and it affected our trading environment greatly. Perhaps things had gone too far with NY Fed President John Williams stepping in on Friday and pushing back, detailing it was “premature” to think...
The S&P500 / US500 is trading inside November's Channel Up, with the price turning sideways after nearly hitting its top. This is a comfortable bullish trade over the 4hour MA50 and looks very much like the November 5th-9th consolidation. As long as the 4hour MA50 supports, buy and target 4850 (top of the Channel Up). If it breaks, sell and target 4550 (bottom...
Hey Traders, in the coming week we are monitoring US500 for a buying opportunity around 4680 zone, US500 is trading in an uptrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 4680 support and resistance area. Trade safe, Joe.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD strengthens and tests the local high but fails to reach the key resistance at 2050. A strong consolidation above the 2030 level and subsequent momentum is forming. On D1 we see the potential that the market is aiming for. On the background of weakening TVC:DXY , on the gold market bulls form a strong support area below 2030 after which...
US500 - Intraday Price action continues to trade around the all-time highs. There is no indication that the rally is coming to an end. A break of the recent high at 4744 should result in a further move higher. Short-term momentum is bullish. We look for gains to be extended today. We look to Buy a break of 4746 (stop at 4720) Our profit targets will be...
A few weeks ago, we discussed the reversal in Chinese indices and the negative implications for American stocks. Yet, this week, the worse-than-expected data in China’s economy sparked talk about the need for additional stimulus measures in order to boost the post-Covid-19 recovery. At the same time, the FOMC unveiled the U.S. central bank might be a step closer...
CAPITALCOM:US500 chart mapping/analysis. S&P 500 holding in choppy consolidation after November ripper rally. Trading scenarios into EOY: Bullish reaction to macro economic news = break above ~4610 trading range (yellow dashed) towards ascending trend-line (green) / red box confluence zone. Bullish extension target(s) = re-test ~4820 previous/historical...
S&P500 is trading inside a 1 year Channel Up with the price reaching today the 0.786 Fibonacci level, following the Fed rate hike. Following the Bearish Megaphone that initiated November's rally, the can see that the last time such pattern started a rally, it peaked on the 0.786 Fibonacci (Dec 01 2022) before pulling back to the 0.236 level. Trading Plan: 1. Sell...
OANDA:XAUUSD continues to fall despite the expectations of many. The price is testing the 1984 area and updated the low to 1975.89. What can happen today? The TVC:DXY is in a local trend phase, but at the same time it is consolidating in anticipation of today's CPI and further news this week. The main gaze is directed towards FED interest rate decision,...
The S&P500 index (SPX) is extending the bullish leg of the 16-month Rising Wedge pattern. It doesn't have much room left before it hits the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the pattern and as long as this stays intact, it targets 4730 as an end of year target. As you can see, throughout this pattern, its shorter Rising Wedge patterns that have driven the price...
NCDEX:GOLD after NFP is updating 2-week low and preparing to decline further as fundamentally, we notice a reversal of market sentiment. On D1 the TVC:DXY is forming a reversal setup and another retest of the key level. Against the backdrop of positive NFP, the index could strengthen quite strongly within the medium-term outlook. In the COMEX:GC1! ...
Please, check our technical outlook for US500. Time Frame: 1D Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 4598.4. The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 4414.2 level. P.S We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI...