Simple Moving Average strategy for USO - United States Oil Fund. This strategy can be used on stocks and currencies but will need to tweak frequency on chart and backtest Max Draw Down to Net Profit ratios for maximum dollar gains.
Lets see how this plays out the next weeks and after the upcoming Opec meeting late Nov16. I am expecting a break out upwards that will have price recover up to around 60, the prices highs of May15.
Hoping for better entry on some energy-related stocks. Maybe timed with a pullback on USO??? Purely hypothetical.
For the long term I am absolutely long crude + us oil companies due to fundamental reasons but the chart at the moment looks like it is about to breakout down. I have already a short built from ~11 but this is a new trade to play the breakout.
If OIL trends the way i think it will, it'll be a coincidence in regards to the OPEC meet at the end of November. I just want to get that part cleared. :P Short term speaking we're looking close to a bottom here at these levels. RSI divergence, 3 wave correction, and possible MACD crossover all signal buy right now. It will be interesting to see how Sunday...
Important floor have built now at yellow line below. Expecting further upside to complete corrective wave C which can go as high as 62 (origin of earlier impulsive intermediate wave 4).
If the dollar keeps dropping I would think that would support a rise in oil as well as the precious metals. I see the form of the current drop from 1 to 2 as a corrective form and with the yellow target box now being hit. IFFF it holds above the recent low of about 44.16 I am looking for wave 3 up to start with likely a total of 5 waves up eventually to finish...
Range bound inside a closing wedge until the inevitable breakout; play top to bottom and back up until the break out.
With the trend line broken on USOIL, I have to expect further down side. Look for support at the 88.6% Fibo or more likely the retest of the last low, double bottom at $9.82. Indicators are oversold, BUT with the markets starting to sell off, its likely to find no support. I'll keep watching this one. Hopefully we get a good trade in a few days/ weeks.
Updated opinion on the intermediate wave structure. Feel free to leave comments, questions or suggestions!
The USO has likely completed the current corrective move and is ready to resume the bullish uptrend as part of an extended larger degree wave (3). While there is the possibility that the correction extends to target the 61.8% retracement of wave 1 around 10.74, the minimum number of sub-waves to complete wave 2 has been reached. Moreover, extended wave 3s tend to...
Energy stocks have rallied enough here. Unable to break key Fib level with divergent momentum and an OPEC that will most likely not come to an agreement. Oh yeah, and junk bonds have rallied way too far as well. All in all, this sector has had everything in the world go right to get to this point and it's still flagging. We could see some sideways chop for a...
These number are looking pretty close for two solid harmonic patterns looking at a potential reversal in USO to about the 10.32 area.