Losing the 55ED_EMA was not a good look for Vol.OnlyFabs. The downtrend we indicted remains in Trade for now. Vol of Vol collapsed well below the 103 Pivot... primarily due to a solid lack of participation. With $x Expiry ahead on the Day of the FOMC Rate Decision, it's going to be a highly volatile day. _______________________________________________________
Pane 1: VVIX appears to have broken support implying lower VIX volatility Lower VIX volatility typically means lower VIX. But not always. Consider VIX spiking to 35 and price going crazy. Usually the "volatility event" passes, price and VIX and VVIX all calm down. Imagine the same spike to 35, but this time, price goes nuts every day for a week, up 2%,...
Double the Fun. Double the Danger. Double, Double down... 25.60 Gap
Settlement is complete. Lower Po's are now open. VIX Roll Yield 105 Bips.
The VIX has Gpas slightly below into the 29s on the 15-minute chart. Breaking 30 would create an immediate dump. Friday will provide a tell for the CT for the Indies. ___________________________________________________________ The VX Curve remains in Backwardation will beyond M2/V2.
8 EMA in White. 13 EMA in Green 21 Ema in Red _________________________________________________________________________ Another Double Bottom at Support of more of a Counter TRend for Indicies.
A Pullback to the support zone, 26.00 should be observed for a reaction. The 2022 50% is the Key Over/Under. Consolidation PB is underway ahead of EPS. 26.00 is the PO 31.20 is the extension on reversal and back to the larger trend.
Full retracement appears to be the Trade. A difficult one where we were turned on our heads. Lower High, this comes into question with the clear ARB on the Vix, protection is leaving the Equity Complex. We'll take the other side of the trade once this demonstrates any further tests lower to PO and TL. VVIX has a pivot at 103... IT's mixed for now, Wall Street...
Disappointing the VIX was unable to break up and out on a surrender move for the Indices. Lower Price Objectives will continue over time for the near term with minor retracements. VVIX is showing a PO @ 103s. The VX Curve is attempting to flatten somewhat. with the Indicies approaching extreme overbought readings - VX could pick up Short Term.
By the Numbers - VIX indicates a potential Index Pullback approaching either Today or tomorrow. IT is currently sitting on 2022 Support. Protection is absent across the Equity Complex, an ominous sign once again.
Simply observe VVIX or Vol of Vol. VXG is being Rolled Early, see Volumes. Anticipate the usual Gamm to Delta Trade into LAter Settlement. _____________________________________ Keep it simple.
Given the VX Complex has asserted a Positive Weekly Trend for the First time since the Roswell Crash (4/5 LT Structure) - the ST Structure indicates more to come for IT 4/5. ________________________________________________________________ % Contango M1 @ 3.66% M2 @ 1.74% M3 @ 0.78% M4 @ 0.12% M5 @ 1.51% M6 @ -0.38% M7 @ ...
After spending all of 2021 in a Weekly Downtrend. The VX COmplex did something worthy of note. It broke the .500% of the Downtrend, it then made a Weekly reversal for the entire Downtrend. ________________________________________________ This implies after the Index Counttertrend completes, Higher Highs are ahead.
Could not happen to a better gauge of Fear and complacency - the trusty VXN... senseless comes to mind as the NQ began the 1:30 PM EST Jumbalaya in the Fire. Another persistent AGLO Monday with the usual suspects in Prop. As the VXX began to implode again, the Bod came into the Indies. Pressure remains out in Time for today and tomorrow, with the attendant...
Not ready for Prime Time, but then with Lower Objectives below and Daily Lows day after day with lower Yearly Lows... It is beginning to look as if the VFX could trade into the 15s at this rate - currently 19.05. Volatility continues to be beaten with the Ugly Stick. ___________________________________________________________ There has not been a Retacement...
The VIX Guy, 50 Cents isn't present. Implied VX is SKY HIGH. __________________________________ The Illusion continues to Live. A great many are going to pay the Price for being dead-ass wrong. __________________________________ I'm going to be as Subjective as the mood suits today. QE Breeds Instability Conditions under QE - the substantive change may...
Once this completes, rising Bond VX and Elevated Vol of Vol... A Very Bad Sign as Santa presses his Luck. The Operators have the ALGOs tee'd up to reverse this absurd non-sense once we see VX Vol crushed to Support. Should be a stunning reversal. ______________________________________________________ Depression Trade needs to be priced in... Then another...
2:30 to 3:00 PM EST today will provide indications for Globex this evening. Should they follow the usual suit, the Indexes will begin to grind higher into the Close. All of the leaders, with the exception of FB - were sold. Continued Distribution. __________________________________________________________________ With VXZ and SPOT/CASH VIX near Par and 100%...