Seasonally, Participation is reduced.
105 has been the Pivot for both higher and lower.
Call Premiums in VX ar 400% Put in a declining Structure.
Elevated.
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Pressure is mounting in a Full Retracement within the VX Complex.
What upends it...
No idea, but it will not be something already "Known"
And therein...
The issue is this...
"Offsides, Out of Balance" Conditions are beginning to show clear signs
of extremes once again.
They are now 2X.
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Observe the VVIX very closely.
Arrangements are under immense duress.
The directors of all twelve Federal Reserve Banks favored maintaining
the current primary credit rate at the existing level (0.25 percent).
In light of the uncertainties associated with the economic outlook,
the directors judged that it would be appropriate for the FOMC to
maintain the current stance of...
What is encouraging after Sunday GLOBEX:
The VIX exceeded the 50% of 2021 and although
it did not make a new high against the Prior Spike High
On a Percentage Basis it was the 4th Largest Percentage Spike
The Prior Spike did NOT.
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Use the VIX Pullback for RT Targets for ES YM RTY.
VXN for NQ.
VIX...
A Gap 10 Handles below - Weekly and Monthly Chart which is of concern
for the Bulls.
Delta remains the trade in the VIX.
Extensions in Trade, this can become an exponential move barring no
Monkey Business from the Operators, ESF, and FED.
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The 54.04% move Higher was the 4th largest move since...
We have sold the NQ twice during the AM Session.
EU Session Close will be our 3rd Opportunity for the SELL.
The usual Gamma Squeeze Suspects are in the Trade.
After blowing through Extension Price Objectives, the
NASDAQ is getting Extremely Over-Heated.
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TSLA 1209s appear to be the trigger for the ES to hit...
20.10 will be the KEY Level for the M2 CT.
December holds the Keys to today as NOV
is sold...
Unless it is held onto...
We shall see.
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A bid for Protection would affect both M1 / M2 until Settle.
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Friday - have not had a deeply Red Friday in quite a while.
We will see increased SELLING in M!/V!.
VXX Exit planned for Today's High.
Operators are in a Difficult Place as the Unwind
is gaining complexity.
VX Complex best DEC - JAN for Our Positions
The VX Complex is once again being given the runaround.
IV drove Options prices significantly higher for a short duration.
The Operators are reeling it back in for Fills.
Inst's continue moving to Firms with perceived Pricing
Power - Nessicities aka "the Things we Need" - A 7.26% Rise in 10 Yr Yields
is beginning to create further disarray.
This is going to...
VXX (M1/M2- VX) is showing signs of Life as the VVIX Pivots around 105, our indicated Pivot.
It's going to require next week to continue to resolve as M2 appears to be catching the Higher
Bids now as M1 continues to spread its 30 Day Maturity forward.
Many are going to be caught offsides...
The VIX Roll Yield was 398 Ticks of Spread on Settlement.
It has since come into 336 Ticks VX1/M1 over Spot.
The Curve has remained in Contango for the second-longest
period since the creation of the Volatility Complex in 2004.
273 Days remains the prior longest Contango Duration.
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Roll Yield close over 20%,...
The VVIX was cornered to the 105s, as soon as this Level was violated the
100 Level.
Gaps were filled on the VIX M1 October as we began to Settle November.
This left a lower Gap for the settled Front Month / M1 - November.
The HIgh Low Close - 16.10 / 14.70 / 15.35 for October Settelement.
The HIgh Low Close - 19.70 / 19.30 / 19.325 for November...
This will get interesting as Price begins to resolve the Continuous Contract for the VIX M1/M2.
The prior October Range: 14.70 -24.00
As November begins to square Price is within the Window for the potential of the VIX reversing
Up @ 9.89% of Settlements.
Effectively placing Price in a Desert, a nowhere landscape.
The Monthly Trend is quite Clear with a...
As M1 continues the Roll to M2 (November) we see the 2 Primary Gaps
coming into Range
The remaining Gap resides @ 16.20.
The VVIX remains stubborn in its FILL into the Corner @ 105.
It remains in strength during a period of extreme M1 Weakness.
A very good sign, as it indicates out the Curve, there is IMMENSE Support.
Institutions are quietly hoovering up the...
CPI Year over Year @ 4% / Month over Month @ 0.2% - a continuuing build for Inflation.
FED Bostic indicated "Inflation" is no longer transitory.
The Data supports his statement with the continuing build @ 2.4% annualized.
The FOMC statement @ 2PM EST will provide the Fuel for a potential Taper Tantrum.
The 3AM EST Prop on EU Session Open has failed once again...
That said...
Good Luck Riggers, it will not work.
CBOE VVIX Index attempts to represent - volatility of volatility in as much VVIX
measures the anticipated volatility of the 30-day forward price of VIX.
Simply put - it is measuring the M1 / M2 VIX 30 Day ST Short-term Volatility.
For those of you who do not understand how the VIX is calculated, you are...
All one needs to know.
Extreme caution is warranted here.
I often do not include the larger Dialy targets for the VIX
at the Lower Extensions for Price AFTER 4/5 Completes.
12.30
