It was a massacre yesterday with global markets tanking in upwards of 3.5%, as the most shorted stocks continued to skyrocket on pure stupidity. The S&P500 saw an overnight session low of 3,703.75, which is the bottom of our white channel, and where the 50 day MA is sitting on our SPY chart. We mentioned in our analysis yesterday, that if the 200MA (h) broke,...
Seen here is the VIX chart, and notably, two segments are highlighted. First the Green box where VIX dropped to 21 as SPX rose higher. However, later on, in the Red box area, a siumilar rise to the same level was not concomitantly seen with VIX retracement. In fact, the VIX was resilient in holding its ground at a higher level. Subtle, but very significant. A...
Global Futures are notably in the red on Wednesday ahead of the Fed's January FOMC rate decision. The US majors are trading down around 1%, with the Russell taking a beating, and down over 2%. European and Asian markets are leading the way lower, with the Dax down as much as 2.25%, and the Hang Seng down around 1.5%. Vix is being heavily bid as one might expect,...
VXX (Volatility Index) is starting to show bullishness which means volatility could pick up. If VXX successfully breaks the rectangle, we can expect wild swings that could happen in equities (NASDAQ, SP500). Prepare for downside if ever that happens for equities.
Market volume is drying up and we're seeing historic put:call ratio's on the indices. We have the necessary ingredients in the cake for a another wave of volatility to hit the market. Please see my previous post about the VIX and the compression patterns that often occur. Volatility tends to get bottled up and then erupt. We are likely in a bottling-up zone...
Not many will see it coming, but if you do come join me in this journey.
Happy Friday, everyone! Global futures are taking a beating on Friday, as lockdowns in Hong Kong, Germany, UK, and across the euro area, tightened further. Traders have been on an absolutely ridiculous risk binge since November (really since March 2020), running straight towards a cliff, and are waking up today to realize they may be on the wrong side of risk. The...
S&P made a strong rally to the top of the rally channel. Broke above practically all my resistance lines on all my charts. I am see a strong sell from my SPX indicator and a buy on my VXX. Sometimes my indicator can trigger a little early so it may not be today but sometime in the next few days we should see a pull back. The 1d time frame still has not peaked...
If I were a betting man, I'd say the 10Y yield looks poised to test 1.20% as early as this week. A weak 20Y auction which saw $24 Billion in demand at a significantly higher yield than December, could be indicating weakness in the bond market.
It was another gap up overnight (shocking), and like most of you, I'm starting to wonder if markets will ever function normally again. Yesterday, we saw freakish price action in the afternoon session, as markets flat-lined from about 1PM onward. It's been a long time since I saw candlesticks look like a line chart in the open cash market. But, here we are again,...
We're consistently making higher lows, and I suspect this time is no different. Maybe it's just me, but Vix looks incredibly cheap, considering the fact that half of America's GDP has just been replaced with a printer. We're going to run into the long-term descending (green dotted) trendline soon, and Vix will explode. The current policy path is not sustainable,...
VIX next wave down starting.. consistency identified. Chart self explanatory. Expect major sell-off and market continual upwards momentum. Short /VXX
-Update of $sqq cup and handle. Currently sitting at POC. Long above 15.49 via 15.5 1/22 calls, short via puts 15.5 1/29
Beautfil inverse head and shoulders. Rising RSI and bullish Macd cross. Looking for a big move early next week. Prics targets indicated to the right. -Im long 1/22 18 calls
January's Hedge Trade This trade hedges PG my secondary trade which is riskier as it was strategically structured to be the opposite of the border market movement. Hence if PG surges this should mitigate the loss. It is 15% of the premium from Jan's Primary and Secondary trade. If things go well I should not need to cash this at all. Bought 7 Puts @ 1.10,...
If this is not the top, then there is no point in ever selling again as the Fed has completely destroyed the free market. QE has put the market on steroids and every correction from now on will only last as long as it take congress to pass more stimulus. Hope you enjoy the charts and maybe someday resistance lines will matter again. 1974 channel (end of oil...
Based on the patterns in the RSI and MACD over the last few weeks.