After trading essentially sideways overnight, futures are seeing some pressure this morning on a weak Jobless Claims print. Initial Claims came in at 853k vs 720k exp. (the largest weekly rise since March), with Continuing Claims rising for the first time since the crash, to 5.76MM vs a prior print of 5.53MM. CPI came in hotter than expected at 0.2% vs 0.1% exp....
Hey guys, I hope everyone's having a great week! Let's get right into it today. So the majors saw new all-time high's overnight (again), but appear to be experiencing some weakness as we approach the afternoon session. At the moment, SPY is trading comfortably above the megpahone pattern (and longterm resistance trendline) on the monthly, for the first time in...
Look for history to be repeated very soon
Happy Friday, my friends! Let's get right into it today. So stocks and bonds alike are experiencing some weakness this morning, after November payrolls came in (much) weaker than expected. After a strong September and October with 711k, and 610k jobs added respectively, Novembers print was a massive disappointment (and miss), with just 245k jobs added vs...
The VIX is the most oversold on the 1D time frame using the cRSI than it has been during this whole rally and actually in several years. Now, that on the surface does not mean one thing or another. It could mean the market is finally comfortable with the S&P and things are all good. However, what concerns me is the fact that it has not returned back to its mean...
I read recently that over 80% of all the S&P500's assets are now intangible. It's remarkable the impact that sentiment can have on valuations. I don't think anyone can imagine a scenario where stocks crash 84%. But, if history has taught us anything, it's that sentiment, alone, can accomplish this seemingly impossible feat. The perpetual sense of "hope," delivered...
After a day of trading, the bear sips his whiskey, then decides he's just way too stressed to get friskey. He watches his charts over and over again, and then he shakes his head, before he brushes his teeth and get's ready for bed. His paws are sweaty, and his thoughts are heavy, he knows he's probably gonna dream of that chevy, that he can't afford, because his...
Hey guys! Let's get right into it today. So yesterday the bulls successfully broke through 9 year resistance (well done to the bulls), and as we kick-off the final month of trade in what has turned out to be a year for the history books, the bulls will be looking to take full advantage of the (obvious) death of price discovery, and the bear (RIP). The current...
A rising probability of no stimulus in January sends VIX back to the upper range (congressional gridlock), or rising probability that both Georgia Senate seats flip (massive stimulus) sends VIX to 12. Both could also happen.
In a seemingly massive win for the Biden Campaign, Emily Murphy at the GSA (General Services Administration), confirmed that the Trump Administration is ready to move forward with the peaceful transition of power process, in the accordance with the law. I don't know whether or not this is a move to escape the legal nightmare Trump is living each day, or whether he...
See chart for details. More info in my previous post on VXX/SPX. Here is my VIX chart VVIX
Hey guys, I hope everyone had an awesome weekend. Let's get right into today's analysis: US Futures managed to stage a notable rebound on Sunday night, after an ugly close on Friday when the bulls lost key weekly, and monthly supports. We were up about half a percent into the US cash open, but have since erased most of the overnight gains. Circling the MSM today...
In a move that's shocking both Wall Street and Main Street, Treasury secretary Steve Mnuchin has officially put the FED on notice in a bid to end the FED's Emergency Lending Programs by year end. Headlines from popular economists are circling the MSM, and some are saying this is the equivalent of removing the lifeboats from the Titanic. First of all, that's...
Here is my VXX "indicator" analysis. If the pattern holds, then it looks like we could see a spike in the next week or so. What do you think? Am I crazy like a fox or just crazy? Close up Here is my VIX/SPX indicator. My SPX chart
Hey guys, so for the moment the bears continue to dictate price action after yesterday's minor sell-off, as overnight losses in futures extended into the US cash open. After recapturing 2 key trendlines from the bulls yesterday (ascending channel, and megaphone), the bears are taking full advantage of the downward momentum, and we're now racing toward the top of...
US Futures traded marginally higher this morning, off the back of more media narratives of a "95% effective COVID-19 Vaccine". Prior to this most recent, and in all honesty, comedic narrative, it was "stimulus optimism" that drove (global) markets higher. But, I guess investors are not worried about that anymore. What happened to China Trade Deal optimism? I guess...
A little something that I was playing around with.
Hey guys, so I took a few days off because my wife and I moved. I hope everyone had a great weekend, and an even better thanksgiving! Let's get right into today's analysis. Global markets are mixed this morning, with US Futures trading slightly off yesterday's high's. Although we're seeing heightened optimism off the back of successful vaccine trial results from...