Priced in euros, Silver reached the lower edge of descending channel started in 2011. Most likely XAGEUR will rebound from here, making apparent breakdown of the longterm trend to be false. Buy silver in any currency - it's cheap.
I believe price of silver will attempt to climb to 18.50 however it needs to take out 16.16, 16.72
If it manages to clear out those level, then 18.50 looks achievable (previous resistance level which may act as support),
A break below the lows will take price to 14.64
A buy will be initiated on Monday with a tight stop loss ... I will use a trailing stop of $0.5...
Traders,
ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT:
A L/T look at $XAG suggest a protracted bearish correction in the shape of an Elliott Wave Leading Diagonal, based on:
1 - A deep correction from a 49.780 high reached on April 25th, 2011.
and
2 - Internal alternations of 5-3-5-3-5 waves, identifying the overall pattern as an EW's Leading Diagonal.
PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING...
Silver shorts can be initiated here and scaled into towards 18.80 for a decline to 15.8/14.5
Shorts can be also hedged by gold longs until gold reverses from 1270/1320 area (see Sell Silver, Buy Gold Pair Trade)
A pullback for Primary (4) can be expected thereafter to 17/18 area.
The final target for Silver seems to be somewhere between 12.4 to 10.3
The current upwards correction in gold (see linked view below) I think can be pair-traded by buying gold and selling silver to hedge.
Gold/Silver ratio is moving very nicely and impulsively up towards A=C target of 79 which implies a silver price of 15.7 vs. current gold price of 1239.
Silver seems at least 10% rich now.
If gold does indeed go to 900 after...
This isn't a trade set up because I am on the fence with it at the moment, the commodity is at a make or break as it heads towards the $15 support line from 2010; The $15 - $17.50 mark is an important and wildly watched range for the commodity - There may be a bit more of a hit for silver to take over the week or two but using price action I wouldn't be surprised...
We have one hammer testing support zone and RSI making the lower low since june (2014) show to us one strong oversold scenery. Some bull power can be expected.
Title date correction (11.Sep.2014)
Silver (XAGUSD), in 4H Tech Analysis Training look like this:
The XAGUSD pair has made a sharp decline below the KUMO. Now it is under 1.618 of fib ($18.718).
MACD is forcing its bearishness trend and RSI is oversold. All these signs make me think bearish as the pair is under of all the ichimoky indicators. In addition...
Traders,
In our last technical commentary, we discussed about a completion of a Bullish Wolfe Wave acting as a springboard to a potential rally (see discussions and additioanl charts here: ).
What was confounding to this potential rally was the absence of two discreet, but technically crucial events:
1 - Internal Elliott Wave count that demanded a 5th wave...
Traders,
On a pure technical basis, we have already demonstrated yesterday how #ES / $SPX was setting up for a fall, and falling it did, indeed - That was based on a 5-prime positioning, the most commonly level of aggressive counter-trend event.
Here, the $XAU is giving us a mirrored situation, except that the technicals are coming into alignment to see price...
MACD says long.
Fisher shows reversal in high probability.
Recent bullish candles showing buying interest.
50SMA crossed 100SMA and 200SMA (100SMA is narrowing the gap towards 200SMA)
XAGUSD may find support at strong structure and 0.764 Fib level during it's current consolidation. If unable to break it may breakout to 24.50 handle and 0.618 Fib level. But if it breaks down then next stop may be all the way down at 14.88 handle
Traders,
I just posted a chart illustrating the persistent increase in $XAUUSD strength relative to $XAGUSD (See original chart and analysis here: , as well as subsequent comments here: ).
$XAUUSD vs. $XAGUSD:
This strengthening of Gold relative to Silver might appear counter-intuitive, considering that the yellow metal has been under pressure recently,...
