CBOE Equity Option Volume: 1. Total Equities Option volume now trades above all moving averages and is currently 1 deviation above the 3 month and 1 month average - we moved 40% higher on Friday post yellens hawkish Jackson Hole Speech, from 1700000 to 2500000. - Though we remain about 40-50% below the "risk-off" shift levels that we usually see in a firm...
USDJPY had a nice run following Yellen's speech at Jackson Hole and my bullish trade that was entered near 100 is now up more than 200 pips. There were few reasons I chose to go long USDJPY last Friday: 1. Psychological level (100) 2. Weekly structure zone 3. Re-test of broken downtrend line (weekly) - Support 4. Re-test of the bottom of a trading channel (see...
DXY: 1. Given the firming of USD STIR/ Fed funds following Yellens JH remarks and the markets hawkish reaction i still think there is another % or so of topside to be priced into USD topside. - Fed funds implying 36% probability of a Sept hike - the highest implied prob in 3 months - hence given cables 50pip appreciation i feel theres another 100pips here to be...
GBPUSD is clearly set up for some nice action later today. Yellen can bring this back down and create a nice double top. Depending on how market reacts to her speech we could see a test of the upper channel and either see a break or a touch and drop. I'm leaning towards the later. RSI and stoch are lower PA is flat We are right at the upper level of the...
Fed Lockhart Speech Highlights: Lockhart: Tepid Business Investment Plans Raise Questions About Growth Lockhart: Uncertainty A Real Factor For Economy Right Now Lockhart: Fed Rate Policy Will Be 'Cautious And Gradual' Lockhart: 'No Gun To Our Head' To Raise Rates Quickly Lockhart: Two Rate Rises Remain Possible, One Likely This Year Fed's Lockhart: There's...
GBPJPY: 1. Given Fed Yellen's "hawkish" market response and GBPUSD, GBPNZD and GBPAUD shorts TPd on the rally lower today cleared (FX risk book clear too), im looking to add some safe haven assets to my portfolio. 2. Looking at GBPJPY and GBP structures on the whole, there has been alot of sterling longs in the past 2wks accumulating in spot as economic...
Yellen as interpreted by the market was bullish, though price action immediately following the JH Speech Highlights was anything but this clear cut and imo said alot more about what was actually said i.e. there is still uncertainty/ no clear commitment, as DXY moved higher immediately after before aggressively selling off for the next 20-30minutes, before then...
Next week is loaded with data on both sides of the crossing. At the end of the week will mark the NFP surely as day 21 things to develop, when the Fed and the BOJ meet to make important decisions. www.fxstreet.com
The graphic that everyone follows. Withdrawing money to the market without volatility is not easy, and not everyone knows how. Stay current on www.FXStreet.com
Potential Gartley setting up @ 0.7272 Keep an eye on Yellen's Speech tonight as well
All potential trade setups shared yesterday are still valid Similar to USDJPY and USDCAD, take note of Yellen's Speech later
A smaller bullish Bat pattern is currently setting up @ 1.2869 Again, take note of Yellen's Speech tonight
Far negative net volume level, followed by corrective movement, does it make sense or not? It seems appropriate to close positions or hedge with options time. When the market does not teach his game, it is more likely that we are the ball. www.fxstreet.com
Yesterday's candle was actually bullish. Long-legged candles signal reversals, even if the intraday selloff may have suggested otherwise. The key message: breakout levels ~10490 were tested (violated), but held. Index is off to a fresh swing higher, which could target 10860 (late December high) and 10981 (cycle fibo level). With that in mind, yesterday's mini...
USD/ DXY: 1. In the past, 7/9 days DXY has lost a considerable amount, from 97 to 94 as US data, starting with a big GDP miss, has continued to be poor across the board with all but employment not hitting the target. 2. Fed Minutes of July that we saw this week reaffirmed the need for firmer data before any rate hike will happen with several members wanting to...
Its been very evident that even the strongest bears went positive since BREXIT on Precious Metals for intermittent rally or pullback from the supercycles as we call. Everybody would agree that 1300-1310 would serve as strong demand area and resistance from previous tops especially March 2015 highs. The breach woud open the gate to 12XX and bear would take thier...
Related to the reflation theme described in my view "Crude Oil: The Most Important Chart in the World". This trade relates to a steepening of the US yield curve as rates adjust upwards through either rising inflation or a pickup in US growth (or both) having been driven to a record low in June. BKX Index (candles) BKX / SPX (blue) US10Y (grey) What is...
Looks like the pullback after the Brexit after a monster sell-off is fading out, 6E analysis tells us from VSA prospective that buying is going on diminishing volume with small culminations at the tops. 1.11 is the level to sell towards 1.07-1.06. It will be reinforced by extra liquidity from ECB and Draghi "euro death spell" and fears of further EUxits. Expect...