My recession roadmap scenario: 1) Jobless claims creeping up will spook the Fed 2) They will then cut the Fed fund rate 3) We then later declare a recession was/is happening #Gold, #Silver and #Miners will enjoy the recovery.
Those dollars that the US government owes must be inflated away! As paying back 33 Trillion dollars is not feasible in today's version of dollars. So they must be paid in even more worthless dollar currency units. If the US government stops spending they will send the US economy into a recession. They must continue to pump money into the economy and the stock...
The 2000 Top was still the "real" peak of the US stock market Built obviously on the expectation that the internet would change the world and teh global economy. This highlights how the market foresees the future and how market participants are forward looking. The #DownJones index is still 50% down form that peak on this chart you can multiple chart patterns...
Macro Monday 39 (Part B) This chart is a summary of the past two weeks of work in Macro Mondays on the EU Sentiment The Chart illustrates the forward looking Euro Area ZEW Sentiment Index (red line) and the current sentiment outlook via the Euro Area Economic Sentiment Index (the "ESI", the blue line). In the chart I have used thick orange lines to illustrate...
Retail Diesel – Monthly: Currently resting at monthly support of 5.31. (Ichimoku indicator not shown) Daily and weekly swings above and below the blue Tenkan line should be expected. A monthly close below could open the door to the red Kijun line at 4.09. This would be very strong support on a monthly scale. There was a 5 leg event from the 02’ low to the...
Nice patten and correlation between Singapore PPI and UKOIL
Throughout US economic history Only high real rates has brought down inflation i.e Interest rates ABOVE the rate of inflation obviously this will induce demand destruction and a decline in the earnings of companies Lower p/e's and lower prices across the board. #FinancialRESET #HOUSING #Nasdaq
by the Politicians, Talking heads and Bankers. Governments can only Tax, Borrow & Spend Central Banks can only Print & Lend. If this index were to rise by the average of 43% You are looking at the CPI Index hitting 372 by Jan 2030 There is every likelihood this decade, will be a higher than average inflation rise. You must save in scarce Assets #Gold &...
📣 Hello! I believe that inflation in the US will not go anywhere and the 2% target that the Fed has set for itself will not be achievable anymore. Here is a 100-year triangle on the CPI chart and I believe that already in this decade, that is, until 2030, it will be broken up and the Fed will have very big problems. After the triangle breaks up, inflation will...
ECONOMICS:JPIRYY Japan Inflation Rate Lowest in A Year The annual inflation rate in Japan fell to 3.0% in September 2023 from 3.2% in August, pointing to the lowest reading since September 2022. Meantime, core inflation rate dropped to a 13-month low of 2.8%, slightly above market consensus of 2.7% while staying outside the Bank of Japan's 2% target for the...
- The Bank of England (BOE) decided to deliver its #inflation medicine in a bigger dose at their recent monetary policy committee meeting. The bank made the shock decision to raise borrowing costs a half percentage point, taking the official rate to 5% ; double the size of the increase anticipated by most economists. BoE hiking interest rates to 5% , it adds...
Macro Monday 34 S&P PMI Composite Flash This S&P PMI “Flash” Composite is a very useful and relatively new data set made available since Nov 2013 that is particularly useful at providing an advance indication of the ISM Purchasing Managers Index (ISM PMI Index) which is released a week later. We are aware from prior Macro Mondays that the ISM PMI index is...
U.S Initial Jobless Claims Rep: 187k ✅ Lower Than Expected ✅ Exp: 207k Prev: 203k (revised up from 202k) A positive release today with initial claims coming in much lower than expected. Chart Trend We are very close to taking out the lows from Oct 2022 at 180k claims on the chart. Importantly these charts do not update with revised figures and factoring in...
U.S. Continuous Jobless Claims Rep: 1,906k 🚨Higher than Expected 🚨 Exp: 1,889K Prev: 1,898k (revised down from 1,905k) Continuous claims came at 1,906k which is 8,000 higher than last weeks revised 1,898k. The Trend Since Sept 2022 continuing claims have increased from 1.302m to 1.906m (604k+). This is significantly concerning trend & suggests that an...
The inflation rate in the United Kingdom remained stable at 6.7% in September 2023, holding at August's 18-month low and defying market expectations of a slight decrease to 6.6%. Softer price increases in food and non-alcoholic beverages (12.1% vs 13.6% in August) and furniture and household goods (3.7% vs 5.1%) were offset by a smaller decline in energy costs...
Purchasing power DESTRUCTION has been the game plan for a very long time. Expecting another wave of ACCELERATED destruction... #crudeoil #gold #usdollar #purchasingpower
This forecast study the dot com bubble and the subprime bubble (2000 and 2008) as referenced for the current AI bubble. The US interest rate serves as reference for forecasting the market top (between sep 2024 and april 2025), and the market bottom (end of 2026). DYOR, NFA.
MACRO MONDAY 24 The New York Empire State Manufacturing Index Trading View Ticker: $USNYESM The New York Empire State Manufacturing Index (NYESM Index) is a month to month economic indicator that measures the general business conditions in the manufacturing sector of New York State. It is published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and is based on a...