Regional Banking Monthly Log ChartRegional Banking ETF has priced in ALOT of those possible news events over 1 year ago. 2022 loss of upwards momentum stay clear until wake up line is crossedShortby Badcharts3
Long KRE 42.35Look daily stoch on bottom also look she is basing some just looking swing long say maybe 54 if that then she will stop drop and make new lows. We have earnings next week Longby john12Updated 5
KRE BreakdownKRE is continuing to breakdown. The penetration through the .618 level and confirmation below it indicate more downside to come...by Effler0
KRE Regionals still not out of the woods.Checking out a chart of KRE the regional banks have been the epicenter of the latest banking crisis. The FED has responded with BTFP to try and get ahead of the problem of mark to market losses on MBS and treasury holdings, but is it enough? I would have expected confidence in the sector to be somewhat restored and stock prices to have a relief rally. But prices have been stuck in a range as the broader market continues to climb. This is concerning for anyone who thinks this rally has more legs and something I'll be monitoring closely in the coming weeks. by The_Pain_Trade0
KRE Diving Lower, Bearish pennant - Be Your Own Bank..Treasury and FDIC demonstrated zero interest saving shareholders of SIVB (wiped out, the buyer of assets got $16B+guarantees for loans). Same will go for the rest of $KRE = any assets are at deep dis count. Can't save them all (nor they would want to). Industry consolidation. The End. Shortby ProfitProphet911112
3 Price level to do DCA on Bank ETFDCA method First - $39/$40 - 1st bullet Second - $35 - 2nd bullet Last - $27 - Final bullet As we know, Bank ETF is affected by SVB saga. However in long run, after the saga drama over, we may see KRE recover back in future. Therefore, we may apply DCA method to slowly accumulate into it. Longby probabilityta0
Demonstration of the Wave principle in real life KRE If you want a demonstration of the Wave principle in real life look no longer than KRE. It is a textbook example of an impulse wave started on 23 March 20220. Wave almost 61.8% retracement of Wave 1 Extended 3rd wave with a 2.00 multiple of Wave 1 Wave 4 has almost 0.382 retracement of Wave 3. And the most important one: the entire impulse wave is divided perfectly into golden ratio. 0618/0382 This impulse wave finished on 19th January 2022. Since then the corrective phase has begun. We have 2 viable scenarios over here Scenario nr 1. An ABC zigzag We clearly have a minor impulse wave down finished in 5 waves that could be intermediate wave (A).-finished on 16th June 2022 Followed by a running flat ABC for wave B. notice the truncation of minor wave C of (B) warning us about the underlying selling pressure in KRE. And that's precisely what happened in wave (C). That is what an impulse wave 3 of (3) looks like. Fear response appropriate! The Fibonacci ratio for wave (B) is precisely 0.382 retracement of wave A . The most common one in a zigzag. Guideline of equality Waves (A) = Wave (C) at $42.65 normal in a zigzag. So with this interpretation probably one more minor wave down and everything will be roses in the regional banks. What is not normal in a zigzag is the slope of wave C should be less aggressive. So this brings me to an alternate count. Scenario nr 2 Because of the slope and severity of this late sale this makes it a wave 3. As I said before has all the marks of impulse wave 3 down in this case. So the whole correction becomes just waves 123 with waves 4 and 5 still to come to make just wave (A) of the decline. I will leave it up to you to decide which interpretation is most appropriate. Legal Disclaimer: The information presented in this analysis is solely for informational purposes and does not serve as financial advice. by WavesInvesting111
KRE / XLF / QQQ / SPY Triple Top Resistance into Wednesday FOMC- KRE and XLF still in a bear flag territory, Both are closing in on their tightening range and will break very soon either tomorrow or Wednesday. we will get a lot of volume and volatility once this breaks. - QQQ & SPY have a Triple top resistance, if XLF break bull SPY will very likely break that resistance, so will watching all 4 closely. - FOMC Wednesday 0.25BPS is still around 70% chance, what bulls want to see is Powell saying we are pausing after this hike, Bears want to see more 0.25BPS hikes. 04:55by ArcadiaTrading1
KRE June 16th 35/April 21st 55 Long Call Diagonal IdeaDo you ... fade this move? Pictured here is a long call diagonal with the long leg out in June at the +90 delta, and the short leg out in April at the -30 to synthetically emulate the net delta of a covered call position (i.e., long stock/short call) where the short call of the covered call setup would be at the -40 delta strike. Metrics: Assumption: Neutral* to Bullish Buying Power Effect: 15.09 debit Break Even: 50.09 relative to 50.69 Spot Max Profit: 4.91 ($491) ROC%-Age as a Function of Buying Power Effect: 32.5% at max; 16.3% at 50% max; 8.1% at 25% max. Alternative Setups: April 21st 54 Covered Call. (Buy a one lot at 50.69, simultaneously sell the April 21st 54) Metrics: Assumption: Neutral to Bullish Buying Power Effect: 48.09 debit (cash secured); 23.33 (on margin) Break Even: 48.08 relative to 50.69 Spot Max Profit: 5.91 ($591) ROC %-Age as a Function of Buying Power Effect: 12.3% at max (cash secured); 25.3% at max (on margin). April 21st 46 Short Put (25 Delta) Assumption: Neutral to Bullish Buying Power Effect: 5.46 ($546) (On Margin); 44.33 (Cash Secured) Break Even: 44.33 relative to 50.69 Spot Max Profit: 1.67 ($167) ROC %-Age as a Function of Buying Power Effect: 30.5% (on margin); 3.8% (cash secured) As you can see by looking over the metrics, there are various advantages to each setup. With the long call diagonal, the ROC %-age stands out as its positive attribute, but the break even is basically at or near where the underlying is currently trading. With the covered call, the buying power effect relative to the long call diagonal is a bummer, but you start out with a break even below where the underlying is currently trading. The max profit potential of the covered call relative to that of the long call diagonal is comparable, but the ROC %-age in the covered call is lower due to the higher buying power effect, particularly in a cash secured environment like an IRA, where the long call diagonal would be far more buying power efficient. There may, however, be some small advantage to being in the stock: KRE pays a dividend, but it's only quarterly, so it would conceivably pay a distribution in March (the next distribution) and June. The last distribution was .4058 (i.e., $40.58 per one lot), so we're not talking hugely motivating money here. With the short put, your break even is more than $6 below where the underlying is currently trading, but the max profit potential isn't great relative to those of the covered call or long call diagonal. That being said, the ROC %-age at max is comparable to that of the long call diagonal. * -- I classify covered calls and "synthetic covered calls" like long call diagonals as "neutral to bullish" assumption setups due to the ability to reduce cost basis over time via roll of the short call aspect so that you could conceivably make money if the underlying moves sideways. Longby NaughtyPinesUpdated 5
You decide - SVB Financial collapse - who is to blame?A lot of talk on who is to blame for the SVB Financial collapse – this is the first big casualty of rapid rate hikes and tighter policy, but who is to blame and what are the next steps? -SVBs management – they invested short-term deposits in longer term fixed income assets – where a large % of its $120b securities portfolio lacked any kind of interest rate hedge (payers swaps were clearly needed) -SVBs management – In the past 8 months SVB had no risk manager - fortune.com - no one knows how they efficiently managed risk -SVBs management – the accounts showed they held $91b of its $120b securities in its HTM (assets Held to Maturity) book – these are assets they intend to hold until maturity but the accounting rules detail, that they don’t need to mark-to-market the moves in the underlying and report the ballooning losses – which again were not hedged. -SVB deposit mix - 93%+ were above the FDIC insurance limit – this makes depositors v sensitive to any capital concerns at the bank -SVB deposit mix - VCs had a rapid cash burn, as projects they back are typically driven by changes in interest rates (think Net Present value and Internal rates of return) – depositors took cash off SVB’s balance sheet to fund operations – SVB subsequently had to sell assets as their liabilities fell – we then see realised losses from buying securities at much higher prices. -Short sellers/investor base – shorts had an eye on unrealised losses from the worsening asset quality for weeks – the selling accelerated when the CEO/CFO/CMO disclosed they’d sold a chunk of stock on 27 March – it was over when the SVB took a $1.8b hit on its AFS securities available for sale on Wednesday – management sold $21b of its $28b book and announced a $2.25b in equity/debt raising - investors knew with conviction that depositors were fleeing – who supports a raising when liabilities are falling – no one sensible, raising pulled -The Fed - failing to know such a shift in rates would impact banks asset quality when its primary function is financial stability. -Regulation - Basel 3 - banks being forced to buy govt paper against deposits - v low risk weighting (perhaps required a hedge Hard to pinpoint this on one aspect IMO - I think there is a perfect storm going on – a lack of hedging of interest rate risk was clearly a dominant factor behind this. Top down this is a function of rapidly tightening monetary policy and the impact this had on both the asset quality and liability side of the balance sheet – we should recall SVBs model is not the same as others in the banking space, so its hard to say this is systemic – still we wait for the outcome on next steps on how deposits over $250k will be dealt with – we’re hearing they may get 50% back initially but a buyer would be the best solution The issue for regional/smaller banks comes if is we see some sort of haircut on the deposits claim over $250k – that could see a loss of confidence in holding deposits with other smaller banks names – we shall hear more soon, but broad contagion through the financial system seems unlikely, but it is a possibility given nearly 1/3 deposits in the banking system are uninsured – any bank with a large asset base and low equity are in the spotlight As said Friday this could be a nothing burger or have real impactions on economics - the big issue happens this week if we see no clarity on how depositors are dealt (seems unlikely) with and we get a hot CPI print Editors' picksby Pepperstone3131456
KRE to test POC , then lowerKRE looks as if it will test 62.78 at the point of control, then reverse and head lower in the reversion channel. by NTXDUpdated 1
...But ...I was told the markets will crash nowWhy are regional banks breaking out to new 6 months highs relative to the S&P? Does smart money know something that retailers are missing?Longby stewdamus114
KRE - Regional Bank SpankWither the Banking Sector... by design. All part of the Plan. Larger Regional Banks will become the very next too-big-to-fail entities. A good old-fashioned rollup, kinda like Bush Sr's criminal S&L Scandal Part tres. _____________________________________________________________________ Bank on it. A threat to financial stability? M&A isn't going to go all too smoothly. by HK_L616
KRE - Regional Banks NQBANK XLFOh my, death on a stick once again. Banks are twisting in the wind. Health? Hell No. ______________________________ Use the Dollar Tool now. Forget Stonks they are cooked. Markets go nowhere without Financials. Homies' wreckage just beginning. Bonds are already in ruin. Crypto, ready for the beating. Gold, a shiny useless rock. 22% more to go... adios. by HK_L616
6/1/22 KRESPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF ( AMEX:KRE ) Sector: Miscellaneous (Investment Trusts/Mutual Funds) Market Capitalization: $-- Current Price: $63.44 Breakout price: $66.00 Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $62.20-$56.55 Price Target: $90.00-$91.00 Estimated Duration to Target: 496-509d Contract of Interest: $ZM 6/16/23 70 Trade price as of publish date: $4.70/contractLongby lord_catnip0
KRENot a good look for regional banks. Monthly close below previous highs. Slight bearish RSI divergence & MACD going negative. 50 sma next?Shortby Essendy0
Opening: KRE April 14th 60/79 Short Strangle... for a 1.76 credit. Comments: Popped to the top of my screener with an IVR of 95 and a 30-day of 45.1. Selling the 16 delta strikes for a 1.76 credit on buying power of 7.06; 24.9% ROC at max; 12.5% ROC at 50% max. Will look to take profit at 50% max, roll sides on approaching worthless/side test.by NaughtyPinesUpdated 2
KRE Breakout - Target 81.33 , 86.74 , 94KRE has been consolidating in a channel for more than a year. Recently it gave a breakout from the channel and trying to retrace back to the trend line for breakout confirmation. With Fed planning to raise interest rates 3-4 times in 2022, all banking sector has gained momentum. Breakout moves could be explosive on the upside, targets 81.33 , 86.74 , 94 and beyond. Longby gmaster290
KRE long target 110$Fundamentals for the banking system are very strong right now, and it is possible to reach this target with the interest hikings Longby rodopacapital2
KRE weekly bullish breakout with volume ahead of bank earnings. KRE Weekly chart showing bullish break out to ATH with increasing volume. Technical point to a more bullish move for up coming weeks ahead of bank earnings. CCI & RSI trending higher and moving up to bullish signal. Cross on weekly Stochastics RSI is showing a bullish cross. Longby marketaction_live110
KRE 3h Wolfe Wave 11/9A Wolfe Wave is a chart pattern composed of five wave patterns in price that imply an underlying equilibrium price. Investors who use this system time their trades based upon the resistance and support lines indicated by the pattern.Shortby defiantroa0
$KRE Weekly Box BreakoutAs mentioned in XLF idea, Financial charts looking bullish with a nice weekly box breakout. KRE regional banking etf : - Look for retest of box or possible sellers to step in for a push down to 8EMA green line - My bias and bull case - continuation , especially with the MACD bullish cross confluence. I'm long Dec 72c but can also form a spread with the Dec 69p (.28 delta)Longby FriscoTradesUpdated 111
regionals risebanks rip more from here on a hawkish Jackson Hole fed meeting. rolled into some OTM calls today. RSI not in an ideal spot, altho the tighter charts show a different supportive picture atmLongby QUANDRANTS110