NVDA SELL++++NVDA is struggling to hold fibonacci support at .236 mostly likely we settle at .618 $687.41 which is also cloud support if that doesn't hold it'll get nasty. Either way, it's NOT a buy hereShortby ShortSeller767711
A Traders’ Weekly Playbook: Long event risk, short sleepThe markets will come alive this week reacting to the outcomes of an incredible array of tier 1 event risk, with some 14 central bank meetings, including six G10 central bank meetings, as well as numerous emerging market central banks too. At a more micro level, Nvidia takes centre stage with the highly anticipated GPT conference a potential volatility driver for the AI juggernaut. We consider that the findings could impact the wider semiconductor space and even promote volatility across broad markets. In the playbook, we break down what matters most in each event risk and what could drive market moves above all else, while offering trading thoughts on where the skew of risk resides. This coming week there will be opportunities across markets, but more importantly, the ability to skillfully manage risk and assess correct position sizing will be where traders live to fight another day. For a more detailed run-through of the week’s events, as well as analysis of the technical set-ups front of mind and the trades I am reviewing, join the livestream on TradingView on Monday at 1pm AEDT. Good luck to all. Key event risk for the radar this week Nvidia GTC conference (18-21 March) After a record 10 weeks of consecutive gains for Nvidia’s share price, investors get a chance to hear more about the future of generative AI, as well as new products in the pipeline and potential sales opportunities through the lens of the AI market leader. We hear from CEO Jensen Huang (on 18 March) and other key figures within the business. Expectations that the conference will hit the sweet spot are sky-high and the options market implies an -/+11.6% move in the share prices by Friday. The importance of Nvidia to the broad US and even global equity market can’t be overstated and the read-through to semiconductors and the wider NAS100 is a real risk. AI has been the key equity theme for a while and will continue to be so, and Nvidia is at the epicentre of this. The prospect of a sell-on-fact scenario is a real risk. Tencent – a key influence on the HK50 index, Tencent report earnings on 20 March with the options market implying a -/+3.8% move on the day of earnings. The HK50 index has formed a wedge pattern within a long-term bear channel – a set-up that needs monitoring – preference to chase strength should price break above 17,200. FOMC meeting (21 March at 05:00 AEDT) and Chair Jay Powell’s press conference (05:30 AEDT) What to focus on: • The Fed won’t cut rates at this meeting and the guidance and overall tone will likely remain unchanged from prior commentary. US interest rate swaps price 75bp of cuts by year-end, so the FOMC statement, economic projection (SEPs) and Jay Powell’s press conference will need to reconcile against that pricing. • The ‘dots’ are key – if 2 Fed members lift their projection for the fed funds rate in 2024 it will result in the median projection for the collective being reduced to 2 cuts (from 3) through 2024. Given market pricing for 75bp of cuts this year, a move towards 2 cuts for 2024 as the median ‘dot’ should cause US bond yields to spike higher, taking the USD higher and US equity and gold trade lower. • The longer-term projection for the fed funds rate – or what is considered the ‘neutral rate’ for Fed policy - currently sits at 2.5% - could this be revised higher to 2.75%? • If the Fed’s 2024 dot for 2024 remains at 4.6% (and for 3 rate cuts), but we also see an upgrade to the 2024 GDP forecast (currently 1.4%), we could feasibly see a relief rally in equity and gold and promote USD sellers. Trader thoughts: The algo’s will be set to respond rapidly to the 2024 dot, as this is what matters above all else. A move to pencil in 2 rate cuts this year is not consensus but it is a real possibility and would likely see markets implied rate cuts by December 2024 reduced from 75bp to 60bp of implied cuts. This outcome would see the USD spike and see equity and gold trade lower. Conversely, if the 2024 ‘dot’ remains at 3 cuts, then we could see an immediate relief rally in risky assets and gold. The risk to markets seems balanced, so it seems prudent to reduce exposures over the FOMC meeting and look to react accordingly when the facts are known. BoJ meeting (19 March – likely seen between 1pm and 4pm AEDT) • Despite strong union wage increases on Friday, 29 of 31 economists see BoJ rates left at -0.1%, with a view that the BoJ send a strong signal they will hike rates in the April meeting. Market pricing, however, implies a 10bp hike at 50%, suggesting an elevated risk of JPY volatility over the meeting. • We also look for changes to Yield Curve Control (YCC) and/or the pace of bond and ETF purchases. Trader thoughts – Again, the algos will play a key role in determining initial market moves, and hedge funds will set them to respond squarely on whether we see a 10bp hike or not. While the broad market is short of JPY it feels that unless we see a 10bp hike and changes to the rate of JGB purchases then it will be hard to promote a material move higher in the JPY. Swiss National Bank (21 March at 19:30 AEDT) • The Swiss swaps market prices the chance of a 25bp cut at 30% • 18 of 20 economists see interest rates unchanged at 1.75% Trader thoughts – Two weeks ago the broad view was that the SNB could cut rates by 25bp, perhaps even by 50bp – now the broad consensus view is that the SNB leave policy unchanged at 1.75%. Given market pricing, the risk is we see a bigger move lower in the CHF on a 25bp cut, than any potential rally in the CHF should the SNB leaves policy unchanged. Short CHFJPY and Long USDCHF positions subsequently look attractive – although, as many traders will attest to, trading over news like this needs to be carefully considered and position sizing is of paramount importance. Banxico (22 March at 06:00 AEDT) • Mexican swaps price a 25bp cut at an 80% probability. • 16 of 18 economists see a 25bp rate cut to get the overnight rate to 11% Trader thoughts – With a 25bp cut - that commences a potential cutting cycle, largely priced by rates traders, a surprise outcome to leave rates unchanged could see USDMXN trade through 16.65 and into new cycle lows. Should the market get the expected 25bp cut we could see a move through 16.75, but the extent of the rally will be down to the statement and whether there is a strong appetite to cut again soon. Bank of England (21 March at 23:00 AEDT) • The BoE statement will likely be a low volatility event for the GBP, with the UK swaps market not pricing the first full 25bp cut until August. Look for a 7-1-1 split decision and a patient stance, with the BoE content with current market pricing on rate expectations. Trader thoughts – I hold no real directional bias for the GBP from this meeting, so GBPUSD will likely take its direction from the UK CPI print and moves in the S&P500 and broad risk semantics. That said, the trend in GBPUSD skews risks to the downside, and I favour GBPUSD shorts, with stops above 1.2770. RBA meeting (19 March at 14:30 AEDT) • Aussie interest rate futures prices a zero probability of a cut at this meeting, with a full 25bp cut priced by September. We also see 38bp (or 1.5 25bp cuts) priced by December. • The RBA statement will likely remain largely unchanged, guiding that “it will take some time before inflation is sustainably in the target range”, and “further increase in interest rates cannot be ruled out”. While other central banks actively express a bias for rate cuts, it would be a shock to the market if the RBA opened the door to cuts in this statement. Trader thoughts – the RBA meeting will likely be a low-volatility affair, and AUDUSD is likely to take its direction this week from the FOMC meeting, as well as iron ore, copper, and Chinese equities. A break of 0.6550 may see the early March lows of 0.6477 revisited, although this would be unlikely unless the VIX index trades into 17% and we see broad de-risking through broad markets. Norges (Norway) Bank (21 March at 20:00 AEDT) – the market implies a zero probability of a change in Norwegian interest rates at this meeting, with the first 25bp cut not fully priced until September. I am biased for USDNOK to push towards the top of the range at 10.70. China PBoC 1 & 5-year Prime rate (20 March at 12:15 AEDT) – after a larger-than-expected cut last month to the prime rate (the benchmark rate that households and businesses can borrow from commercial banks), the PBoC are unlikely to cut the prime rate again this time around. A surprise cut would therefore likely see Chinese/HK equities rally. Colombia central bank (23 March at 05:00 AEDT) – the consensus is for rates to be cut by 50bp to 12.25%. Will this forum be the catalyst to see USDCOP break out of the tight trading range the pair has held throughout 2024? Brazil central bank (21 March at 08:30 AEDT) – the overwhelming consensus is that we see the Selic (interest) rate cut by 50bp cut to 10.75%. Other key economic data points of note – China retail sales/industrial production/property sales (18 March), Canada CPI (19 March), UK CPI (20 March), Australia employment report (21 March), EU manufacturing and services PMI (21 March). by Pepperstone8
NVDA - Bullish Symmetrical Triangle | March 2024Symmetrical Triangle Breakout Pattern for NVDA - This could also be a head shoulders to the downside but with so much momentum going into next week and recent upgrades from major financial institutions anything is possible.. I’m bullish on this oneLongby GOLDENLAWD0
$NVDA ONCE IN A LIFETIME!MY PLAN: Calls > 912.50 Puts < 850.94 RARE inside week for this MEGA mover - LOTS of short WICKS came in If shorts get squeezed we can FLY HIGH - I plan to automate my options ❤️if ur in!by tradingwarzone1115
NVDAtoo much support confluence around 888 NASDAQ:NVDA sned this stonk higher, 1069+ before 4/20, with haste P.S. wyd if they announce stonk split at their conference next week anon?Longby jhonnybrah1
NVDA week of March 11NVDA tanked on Friday and continued to tank after hours to the projected low targets for next week. The HA setup shows that we should test below 852. Likely open gapped down. I wouldn't short. As of now we will be opening already in the weekly short targets and if we gap down it will probably open below. Immediate anticipation into Monday is a wick below 852, Overall anticipation into next week is rangey to bullish up bias. Overall bias on NVDA is long. This was just a punishment to the people who thought stocks go straight up ;). Safe trades!Longby SteverstevesUpdated 2828125
NVDA 2023 GTC - Before / During / AfterWith GTC 2024 approaching next week (starting 3/18/24) I did a look back to GTC 2023. There is obviously more hype going into this year's event (and different macro conditions), but may be useful to reflect. This year Nvidia peaked near 975 on Friday 3/8 and fell sharply that very day. It's since recovered as of this writing to about 875. Let's see how it all plays out this GTC and the weeks that follow.Longby radiohead007119
wedge h&smean head n shoulders forming - however a bullish breakout above the wedge could mark a continuation of the bulltrend - or a delay of the correctionShortby The_Gains447
Nvidia uptrend may be running out of steam, where are the stops?Nvidia currently trading at 36 times sales and pricing in all the forward growth in earnings analysts can see. Many cheap stocks trade at 1-2 x sales, normal price to sales for growth stocks might be 5-10x sales. But 36 x times has a huge built in growth premium which makes holding these growth names risky. Its just like a premium on precious metals at the coin dealer, except the growth premium here far larger. The trend is in tact as long as NVDA stays above 20 day moving average, in my opinion. sox index and sox/gold may be showing waning momentums signals already. by optionfarmers2
Classic Bear PA on Long Term Resis: Break and trap patterns. NVDA went into a large clear uptrend on the break of the 1.61 fib. This is something we see in Elliot wave uptrends. If you follow my regular postings day trading you'll see me trading 1.61 breaks all the time and it's always when we get to the 2xx and 3.20 fibs I am most active in trailing my stops, because big reversals can come from these levels. NVDA has a big bearish engulfing candle. Something generally positive for a bearish thesis. Personally, I'm not all that fond of shorting in these spots. I think it's always fair game we can retrace the last candle (Red) or even spike out the high (Blue) before a real reversal. I know I'm going to bet on the red path and I know if that loses I'll bet on the blue spike out. if the market keeps going higher, I know I'll lose in these two spots. I don't mind losing in these two spots but I hate shorting the lows and then losing in these two spots on top of that. This is why you tend to see me shorting into rallies. Because I don't trust price action signals to not screw me over a high percentage of the time. But with all that said - strong follow on a bearish engulfing candle would be notable with the bear signal coming on the spike out of major resistance. I'd be so much happier shorting NVDA on a spike out of the 4.23 fib. At that point I'd think I'd seen all the risk for bears. If the bear trade was ever going to work, it'd have to work there. I'd not have to worry about final head fakes any more, just have to worry about being completely wrong (Which is better. Having to think about being 90% right and losing money is harder than just having to be aware you may be wrong). At this point we can plan the break levels. Using an inversion of the 1.61 breakout strat used to aid the bull forecast at 500. If a break, retest and re break of the 800 zone can be made - good chance we see NVDA trading significantly close to the 4.23. 570 or so min target on short. The stop loss shorting here would be just above the high because the blow off risk to 4.23. Unfortunately, this can be subject to stop hunting in nominal spike outs with harmonics. It's a risk you always have to be aware of when shorting into early classic reversal candle patterns. The breaking of 1.61 would be compelling for an important high made in NVDA. Conversely, if we hold there the case for 1200 or so is strong. Pending how things look at that level I may or may not buy some 1100 calls. If I end up heavy in a short I'll probably be sure to buy them just as some common sense protection. Chance of waterfall event under the 1.61. Just like the rally went parabolic when breaking above it. Shortby holeyprofitUpdated 5
Do you see the rising wedge?I decided to revisit the NVIDIA chart to identify what is going on with the slowdown Euphoria movement for potential reversal. What I found was a rising wedge pattern. The liquid grab from 2 days ago confirmed it, as the trajectory was over extended. It was easy for bears to drag the price back down as no one was expecting such upside movement. If NVDIA breaks below Or above the edge patterns I then look for support and resistance entry point. Shortby dezymezy186602
EXPECT $500+ OUT of NVDAAt this point NVDA is unstoppable. It will not pull back until at least $500 - $520. But even at that point it could easily turn the top of this upward channel trend Into support and then we are looking at clear skies and smooth sailing until $1000. I mean why not? NVDA could easily demand a more than 2 trillion dollar market Cap. Especially considering when its quarterly revenue is at a whopping 7 billion, giving the stock the admirable PE ratio of 213. This one has room to run. Insiders might be dumping large blocks of shares but nothin g that should give investors reason to be cautious. Fasten your seat belts because AI is in charge of this rally.Longby Goontata84Updated 464614
NVDA It appears that the price chart may be forming a cup and handle pattern, suggesting a potential bullish trend if the price remains above $922. Conversely, a price below $850 would indicate a bearish sentiment. Additionally, the MACD indicator has crossed down, indicating a potential downward momentum. In my analysis, I anticipate the price may touch $850 and then rebound, as there is substantial support in that zone.by AmyThongbai112
NVDA AT BEAUTIFUL SUPPORT!! EXPECTING A BOUNCE!There's a triple confluence here on NVDA, This is a massive support level with a developing 45min order block. With these confluence and a strong company leading the tech/AI world, I would expect higher prices to come unless we get a random negative event. I'm bullish and looking to break $1,000 in the next few months. Let me know your thought sin the comments below Calculate Your Risk/Reward so you don't lose more than 1% of your account per trade. Every day the charts provide new information. You have to adjust or get REKT. Love it or hate it, hit that thumbs up and share your thoughts below! This is not financial advice. This is for educational purposes only.Longby Navitility225
Nvidia Upside Target 1157.74My 03/11/24 post illustrated NVDA may have bottomed out. Today NVDA rallied 7.16% which could be the start of a move to a significant peak. NVDA could be completing an Elliott Impulse wave from its November 2008 bottom. Within an Impulse wave there’s usually a Fibonacci relationship between the first and fifth waves. Primary wave “1” had a growth rate of 229.1% divided by the Fibonacci ratio of .236 equal a growth rate of 970.1% added to the bottom of Primary wave “4” targets 1157.74 for the termination point of Primary wave “5”. Broader topping zone is 1120 to 1200. Longby markrivest181829
Is Nvidia and the Top 10 short opportunities? Nvidia’s stock price surge has triggered discussions of a potential "bubble" in AI stocks. Cathie Wood, CEO of Ark Invest, has recently expressed her concern and reduced Ark's exposure to Nvidia, citing the possibility of overly optimistic expectations, prompting her to sell a modest $4.5 million worth of Nvidia shares. So perhaps she is not overly concerned about a bubble bursting. But it's not just Nvidia that has some analysts worried. Torsten Sløk, chief economist at Rowan's wealth management, pointed out that the top 10 companies in the S&P 500 are currently more overvalued than the top 10 during the mid-1990s tech bubble. Jeremy Grantham echoed concerns about overvaluation, warning of an impending burst of the AI bubble. But Grantham is a permanent wall street doomsdayer, so take this warning with some skepticism. In contrast, Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, expressed optimism about artificial intelligence, emphasizing its tangible applications in various sectors such as cybersecurity and pharmaceutical research. Dimon stressed that unlike the hype surrounding the internet bubble, AI's potential is genuine and substantial. Maybe this means that similarly inflated stocks like CrowdStrike (cybersecurity) and Eli Lilly (pharmaceutical) can live up to the potential that their high stock prices are indicating? Or maybe there are additional shorting opportunities with these two stocks? by BlackBull_Markets5
NVIDIAHard to make a prediction on this stock because of its upward trend. This is mostly going to be based on the performance of the company to meet it quaterly numbers. NVDA has a competitive advantage at the moment that will be hard to be hindered by competitors anytime soon. Keep an eye on the resistance lines. by Koami162
NVDA next leg out of ttm squeezeThe chart shows price at 3 Day low yellow. Pink is 8 day low The blue line is the 5 EMA on Day timeframe with 1.5 deviation bands. A stock with momentum typically bounces within this range. There are a couple of EMA combo clouds 5/13 and 55/100. The ttm squeeze set to 1 hour timeframe shows squeeze about to release The bottom frame shows the RSI and %R trend Price is currently about to exit from a TTM squeezeLongby T3chn0joeUpdated 5
NVDA to breakout downside (weekly RSI over 90)www.tradingview.com As you can see NVDA weekly RSI is over 90 indicating overbought FOMO traders also buying NVDA against todays CPI data. Sudden drop in daily volume also indicates bulls becoming weaker. Shortby RavinderSingh074Updated 111
NVIDIA - Has the bubble been burst?After the sharp drop that NVIDIA had on Friday, what consequences can we observe? Has the bubble been burst? Are we going to attend strong corrective phases? Following the line with the price at maximums on February 12 and 23, we can see that when it reached that resistance line last Friday, the price fell sharply. Since then it has moved laterally, above the support of the 823 zone. I think this is not a figure of exhaustion, but a stop and a lateral movement. Microsoft started the sideways move before NVIDIA, and has been eating up time without hurting the price level. For me, the trend is still bullish. Guys, what do you think? Leave a comment with your thoughts.Longby tradingconmike33243
Support lines in $NVDAMy view of NASDAQ:NVDA support lines. When looking at the support lines in NASDAQ:NVDA , I think of them in three tiers of defence: The first line of defence: If the market holds this line, it's likely just a minor correction in the overall trend. In this case, it's recommended to buy the dip. The second line of defence: If the market holds this line, it may take a bit longer for the correction to occur, but it's still considered a minor correction. Again, buying the dip is recommended. The third line of defence: This is the last line of support. If the market breaks this line, it's a sign that the trend is changing. For those who follow Elliott wave theory, this would mean that a 5 waves impulse up is done. For other technical analysts, stage 3 has begun. If you want to know more about my strategy, follow me. Legal Disclaimer: The information presented in this analysis is solely for informational and educational purposes only and does not serve as financial advice.by WavesInvesting0
NvdaMost likely this goes to 1000 in the near future, but first i expect a pullback to 800 to test the 20sma. Tagged my yearly trendline from my last post.. looks like a minor H&S here.. Shortby ContraryTrader226