SMH had been holding 220-223 for a while, and is just today hitting 225, next stop 235 IMO.
Opinion. Hasn't broke out yet and is showing bull strength AT major resistance.
... for a 2.23 credit.
Comments: A small engagement trade in the semiconductor ETF (31.5% 30-Day IV).
Going somewhat wide here with the deltas, with the short option legs camped out at 16 delta on both sides. I generally like to collect one-third the width of the wings in credit for these, but am going a little more long-dated than usual, so want to give it...
Chart is pretty clear. There is a big gap at $212 and a number of points of confluence. The lower trend line on rising wedge aligns with the gap, and other key levels. I'm using SOXS for the gap fill.
The semiconductor sector is seeing incredible strength today and it looks poised to continue. Tech and Nasdaq may still be preferred even if we see TVC:DXY rise off the lows. Best of luck traders!
... for a 1.17 debit.
Comments: Mixing and matching profitable put wing with profitable call wing from iron condors put on at different times (See Posts Below) to de-risk running into NVDA earnings on 5/22. (NVDA is around 21% of SMH holdings).
The resulting setup is a July 19th 205/215/255/265 on which I've collected a net 3.23 in credits; delta/theta...
Semiconductors have been strong performers and this period of the year has become increasingly strong for them from a seasonality perspective. AI is being described as one of the fastest adopted technologies of all time. So it's fascinating to see INTC continue to underperform all of its major cohorts in in the space.
... for a 2.17 credit.
Comments: An additive delta adjustment to the current SMH IC I have on. (See Post Below).
With the original setup's short call aspect converging on -25 delta and the short put converging on +10, selling a skewed IC with the oppositionally delta'd short call/short put (i.e., at the +25 short put and the -10 delta short call) to bring back...
SMH just hit a Golden Genesis fib at $209.43.
That fib is reinforced by a Covid Stimulus fib.
This is a major landmark in this ETF's history.
$ 209.43 - 212.89 is the immediate resistance.
$ 236.36 - 238.96 is the next major resistance.
$ 191.21 - 191.90 below is the first good support.
It is PROBABLE that we orbit this zone for a while.
It is POSSIBLE that we...
... for a 2.01 credit.
Comments: High IVR/IV at 75.1/35.1. Targeting the <16 delta strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit to emulate dollar cost averaging into the semiconductor ETF.
I may look to ladder out at intervals if premium remains decent.
... for a 1.69 credit.
Comments: High IVR/IV at 78.9/34.5. Adding a rung out in July to my SMH position, targeting the <16 delta strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit to emulate dollar cost averaging into the semiconductor ETF.
Generally, will look to take profit on the short put at 50% max.
This is a follow-up on my Mar 9 post on NASDAQ:NVDA and I feel using the NASDAQ:SMH would explain overall market picture better. I struggled with how to frame this post as it is a combination of zooming into lower fractals and zooming out to higher fractals and hope this weekly chart helps.
In the immediate short-term, markets are oversold and you can spot...
Looking at the holdings , I will need less bullets to buy into these individual companies especially I had missed BIG TIME on Nvidia.
This war on semiconductor chips will make these companies that are manufacturing them very much valuable down the road. China is squeeze and is forced to build on its own, which will takes time but eventually , I expect China to...
hi traders,
The price is clearly in a symmetric triangle. Depends on which sloping it will break, it will then move upwards or downwards.
The long position can be taken if the price breaks to the upside. Target for long is 264.64$.
On another hand, short position can be taken if the price breaks down, with target 184.38$.
... for a 192.24 debit.
Comments: Opened this in late Friday's session as it floated to the top of my IV screener with IVR/IV at 106/39.
Sold the -75 delta call against 100 delta of long stock, with a resulting cost basis of 192.24/share. This is to emulate a 25 delta short put and to take advantage of call side IV skew while having "built-in" position defense...
SMH has gone on a wonderful tear the last year and has recently showing signs that it is way overbought and due for a correction.
From a 1W period we see that SMH has broken above year long upward trend.
This is a first for SMH to do over the last year
The ETF has gone through some notable contractions like from Aug - Oct of 2023. This occured without...
If hype continues to grow for AI and companies continue to increase spending on AI chips then semiconductors can break out of longer trend. Otherwise, the longer trend might see soon see a short term peak or even a 50% decline for SMH before going up to new highs.
After a nice +60% Run from November, a correction is expected, as shown by the Head and Shoulders Pattern.
This shows a possible -10% correction.
As always, please get a few outside Expert's Advice before taking Trade or Investment decisions.
If you appreciate my Chart Studies, Smash That Rocket Boost Button. It's Just a Click away.
Regards Graham.
