And why the stock market is about to melt up.
The majority of market participants are bearish. From hedge fund managers to popular media outlets, everyone is calling for the crash of a lifetime.
The above weekly chart tells a fascinating story. Could talk about it for hours. There are three line charts here. From top to bottom,
1) The Put / Call ratio. This is...
As you can see, we are at the upper boundary of a 200 day widening bollinger band (highlighted circle) and considerably off the mean. This is a similar setup as the April 2022 intermediate peak (highlighted circle) and subsequent selloff. The only thing that I can see moving this widening bollinger band on up the ladder like in 2021 is a FED pivot.
It's all...
A sharp (vertical) drop in the RSI (9) on the Put Write index has not been kind to the SPY (purple line). Pretty consistent forecaster. More downside ahead it it looks. So the first episode took us from 447.57 to 362.17, or -19%; the second episode went from 417.23 to 348.11, or -16.6%; a 15% drop from 2/15/23 would take our current leg to 351.95 around mid April.
Protection, cheap protection, continues to be applied.
The outsized demand for downside protection provides
an opportunity to squeeze the ES SPY SPX to higher highs.
The Gamma Squeeze in AMC, TSLA, ARKK will come to a
decided end as we begin to Roll the VIX with settlement
next Wednesday.
We remain patient waiting for Gaps to fill on both the
CASH/SPOT VIX and...
