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Corn Futures (Dec 2021)

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ZCZ2021 trade ideas

Corn price will increaseThe recent information that could make corn prices increase in the near future include: The war in Ukraine: The war in Ukraine has disrupted global grain exports, including corn. Ukraine is a major exporter of corn, and the war has prevented it from exporting its grain. This has led to a shortage of corn on the global market, which has pushed up prices. The drought in the US Midwest: The US Midwest is a major corn-producing region, and the drought in this region is affecting corn yields. The drought has made it difficult for farmers to grow corn, and this has led to lower production. Lower production means higher prices. The high cost of fertilizer: The cost of fertilizer has been rising in recent months, and this is making it more expensive to grow corn. Fertilizer is used to help corn plants grow, and the higher cost of fertilizer is making it more difficult for farmers to make a profit. This could lead to lower production and higher prices. The strong demand for corn from ethanol producers: Ethanol is a biofuel that is made from corn. The demand for ethanol has been increasing in recent years, and this is putting upward pressure on corn prices. Ethanol producers use corn to make ethanol, and the higher demand for ethanol is leading to higher demand for corn. The weaker US dollar: The US dollar has been weakening in recent months, and this is making corn exports more attractive to buyers from other countries. When the US dollar is weak, it means that foreign currencies are stronger. This makes corn exports more affordable for buyers from other countries, which can lead to higher prices. Entry : (476.4681, 473.09963039757986) SL : 472.4437 TP1 : 485.6414 TP2 : 487.8568 TP3 : 490.4948
CBOT:ZC1!Long
by neurotrader95
Is Corn Price on the Edge of a 25% Drop?In this idea, I am trying to read and forecast the behavior of the chart in the next 4.5 months . I do not follow corn production, harvest, demand, etc. Since April 2022 (its 9-year highs) has lost about 40% . Its relatively long-going bearish trend means that most of the drop likely has happened. Let's quickly study previous drops that lasted more than a year and erased more than 40% of the corn price. The last one started 11 years ago. It happened during world economic growth. The price lost more than 61% for 26 months of the trend. Another drop occurred during the GFC and lasted for 24 months. Corn lost 60.5% of its price. Important to note that the price reached its lowest point in December 2008 (in the sixth month after the drop started), then the price fluctuated and reached about the same level in September 2009. Considering the crisis and its trend low reached in 6 months, it is not the perfect example to compare with the current 2022-2023 corn price trend. Let's continue to delve into the past! 44% tumble was printed between April 2004 and November 2005, i.e. 19 months . Sending back 17 years ago, we can see a 64.4 % drop in 25 months . Here we are in 1983, the era of high dollar inflation (and not only). The Fed chair Volcker Jr. is fighting with inflation ECONOMICS:USIRYY , and America is recovering from its 1979-1982 recession. The world economy is starting to recover from recession/slowdown too. Between late August 1983 and February 1987 ( 43 months ), corn prices fell by 61.9% . These data series are not enough to firmly generalize bearish trends . Besides, price movements in the past do not determine possible future patterns. We can gently conclude that a bearish trend in corn prices that lasts more than a year could last between 19 and 43 months and show a drop between 40 and 64.4%. In view of those facts and the performance of the corn daily prices in the last 1.5 months, I forecast several scenarios. In the first one, I expect that the price would break the 469-470 support zone and come to 400 cents per bushel until the end of September . Then I expect some correction lasting 3-5 weeks. And the realization of scenario #1.5 (continuation of scenario #1), we could see a breakout of 400 cents and move to 345 cents per bushel before the end of the year . That would be the low or almost the low of the current long-term bearish trend for maze price. Combined scenarios #1 and #1.5 would mean minus 25% from the current price and a drop of 57.5% since April 2022. There are two alternatives . In scenario #2 after reaching 400 cents, the price would return to 470 cents . In scenario #3 the current support zone would be a minimum of the trend for the next 4.5 months.
CBOT:ZC1!Short
by Nikita_Kalinin
A Counter Trend Trade Opportunity Fundamental News Lack of demand has been a widely reported story which has acted as a major headwind for prices over the last month. This morning’s weekly export sales report showed net sales of 233,500 MT (9,192,486 bushels) for 2022/2023 were up 55 percent from the previous week and 16 percent from the prior 4-week average. Net sales of 704,700 MT (27,742,805 bushels) for 2023/2024. Both were within expectations (better than below expectations). With a plethora of bearish headlines thrown at the market for nearly a month straight, from improving crop conditions, to dismal demand, the bearish headlines may be turning stale. Historical Tendencies Looking at historical patterns, specifically the 5-year average for this time of year, we’ve seen the market consolidate and attempt to consolidate through the back half of August and into September. Technicals (December) December corn futures managed to reclaim some ground yesterday, trading 6 cents higher at the close. As mentioned in yesterday's 2-Minute Drill, we believe that the Bulls need to see consecutive closes back above 480-482 (previous support) to help encourage a bigger relief rally with the next objective being closer to the psychologically and technically significant $5.00 level. CVOL CME Group's corn CVOL index is back to the levels we were at in May. We are at the point in the season where we still don’t know what the corn yield is, but we also know what it isn’t. Getting through the pivotal crop development time frame narrows down the range of yield estimates, helping to bring uncertainty and volatility down, which can lower option premiums. Summary: The bottom is a process, not necessarily a point. We believe that the process may be under way, at least for a short-term relief rally. With bearish headlines growing tired and seasonal patterns coming into play, we could start to see the market consolidate and try to carve out a near term low. The Bulls have their work cutout for them on the chart, and that starts with consecutive closes above 4.80-482. With Volatility well off the recent highs, options may be a good way to gain long exposure for what would be a counter trend trade. Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZCZ2023Long
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Corn futures price chiseling could head lower Yield reports from August USDA’s reports dropped the fresh crop corn yield by 2.4 bushels/acre to 175.1. Since there were no new acreages it also set the potential output to 15.111 B bushels. Worldwide the old crop puts the Brazilian output at 135 MMT increase of +2 MMT. Brazil's CONAB raised their corn production forecast by 2.2 to 130 MMT on better 2nd crop yields. Old crop carryout was a tad bit lower at 298 MMT. Among new crop outputs, Ukraine was 2.5 MMT higher amidst export uncertainties from that region while the EU combined were 3.7 MMT lower while China and South Africa both cut by 3 MMT and 1.7 MMT respectively. China’s authority left corn production unchanged from their prior month estimate, while adding that inclement weather likely could affect output and quality of crops. In the world front, that lowers the total output 11 MMT to 1.214 B MT. Ending stocks were 3 MMT tighter to 311, compared to the 314 MMT expected going in. Total supply was a net 155 mbu lower after a 55 mbu looser old crop carryout picture. USDA trimmed old crop FSI by 20 and exports by 25. For new crop demand, USDA cut feed and residual by 25, FSI by 20, and exports by 50. That tightened stocks by 60 mbu to 2.202 billion. There are a couple of Fib measures on that measures as a continuation Fib extension and the other as a peak to retrace and we consider both of them valid since they point to a potential lower set of profit targets one at 466 and the other a bit higher at 468.
CBOT:ZC1!
by TechTrader79
Corn: Prepare to pop 🍿Corn has continued to sell off over the last few days and is now approaching our blue buy zone from USX 496 to USX 470. The downward movement in the form of the blue wave (b) should end there. Subsequently, we expect the blue wave (c) to rise to around USX 600, making it worthwhile for prospective buyers to place long orders in our blue buy zone. Our alternative scenario, with a 25% probability, occurs if the price falls further than we expect. In this case, a break of the support level at USX 474.25 would give it significant downside momentum that buyers should take note of.
CBOT:ZC1!Long
by MarketIntel
1
Demystifying Corn Demand, Supply, and SeasonalityCorn is a versatile crop. It is used in a variety of ways. Corn is a major source of food for humans and animals. It is also an input in industrial products, such as ethanol and plastics. According to the FAO, in the past year, over 1.1 billion tons of corn was produced worldwide. Gross production value stood at $192 billion, second only to sugarcane (1.8B tons) by volumes and to rice production ($332B) by value. Previously , we highlighted that a bumper US harvest is expected to send corn prices tumbling. This paper is a primer on Corn. It describes demand and supply dynamics and delves into the usage of the crop, its price behaviour and seasonality, among others. Corn is an integral part of human diet. It is consumed both as staple food and in processed products. It is also an important animal feed source. Corn is used in the production of ethanol fuel, plastics, adhesives, and pharmaceutical products. It is also a primary ingredient in alcoholic beverages. SEASONALITY IN CORN PRICES The world’s largest corn producer is the US, representing 32% of production, followed by China with 23%. In October, harvest season in the US overlaps that in China, pushing corn prices to their lowest during the year. Based on data observed over the last 17-years, the seasonal impact of harvest in the US and Chinese on corn prices is clear. Corn price pop through the first half of the year and then plunge through Q3 until start of Q4 when the crops in the US, China, and Brazil commence harvesting. Based on front-month corn futures, the average prices of corn have ranged between 200 USc/bushel to 800 USc/bushel. Over the last 17-years, with the exceptions of six years (2008, 2010, 2012, 2013, 2021 and 2022), Corn prices tend to be stable through the year underpinned by stable demand and robust steady supply. However, external shocks such as the global financial crisis, pandemic, and the adverse weather conditions cause outsized impact leading to large price volatility. Based on CME front month corn futures prices, the heat map below shows an upward trend in corn prices from December until May which is the period immediately after US and China harvesting seasons. This phase also represents the corn planting season. As harvesting begins, corn prices tend to plunge from June until September before starting to recover. On average, based on the analysis into corn prices during the last 17 years, February, October, December, and April are months when corn prices turn bullish. While corn prices are most bearish during the months of June, July, and March. As corn is a hard crop which can grow in various climatic conditions, most countries have ample domestic production to match their needs with few relying on imports. Consequently, marginal demand from importers can have an outsized impact on prices. China is the largest importer despite huge domestic production. Other major importers include Brazil, Mexico, North Africa, European Union, Japan, South Korea, and Vietnam. WHAT DRIVES CORN DEMAND? Demand for corn is chiefly from animal feed followed by food and industrial use. Corn’s high protein and carbohydrate content makes it suitable animal feed for cattle, pigs, and chickens. Unsurprisingly, the US, representing 26% of global consumption, and China, representing 25% of global consumption, are also the largest consumers of corn due to their large livestock populations. The quantity of corn used for feed has remained largely unchanged ~5 billion bushels, since the late 2000’s. Another major demand driver is Ethanol production. Ethanol has many industrial uses, the foremost of which is gasoline blending. Ethanol complements gasoline as they are mixed to create a cleaner burning and higher performing transportation fuel. The demand for corn-ethanol mirrors gasoline demand. This year, the IEA expects 2% higher demand for Crude Oil and its by-products. Consequently, the USDA expects ethanol production to rise by the same margin. Corn supply used for Ethanol production rose sharply in the late 2000’s but has since plateaued around 40%. At the same time, share of corn consumption for feed declined from 60% to 40%. This was accommodated through higher corn production. Although not as significant as feed and ethanol, demand for human consumption of corn is another major contributor. Humans consume corn directly as cereal and in its processed forms. Corn can be processed into multiple by-products including Corn Flour, Corn Starch, Corn Syrup, Corn Oil, and Dextrose. Corn is present in most foods consumed by humans in one form or another. Corn flour like wheat flour is used for cooking and baking. Corn Starch is used as a thickening agent and binder for food and pharmaceutical production. Corn Syrup (also high-fructose corn syrup) is a cheap and effective sweetener created from corn starch used in the production of processed food as well as beverages such as Coca Cola. Dextrose is a sugar substitute used as an artificial sweetener and preservative. CORN INVENTORIES ENSURE SUPPLY YEAR ROUND Although corn supply is cyclical based on harvest levels, demand remains strong year-round. Corn inventories play a huge role in ensuring availability even months after the harvest. Excess corn that is not consumed in the year is carried over to the next to ensure that a baseline supply is always available. These carryover stocks are managed carefully by the USDA using regular demand and supply estimates that it publishes in a monthly WASDE report. Changes in carryover stock mirror supply-demand trends. The USDA generally maintains carryover stocks between 1-2 billion bushels. Last year, the US ended the year with 1.2 billion bushels of corn, sharply lower from the 1.9 billion bushels in 2020-21. However, a bumper harvest this year signals that carryover stocks from the current harvest season and marketing year are expected to surge 56% to 2.2 billion bushels. CORN SUPPLY, PRODUCTION, DEMAND AND PRICES IN 2023 Corn prices in 2023 have broken their seasonal trend with bumper harvest expected. In their general seasonal trend, as seen over the past 15 years, corn prices rise during the first half of the year as supplies from the previous year’s harvest start to get depleted. Prices fall sharply following the start of harvest season. However, corn’s price since the start of 2023 shows a divergence from this seasonal trend. Prices are sharply (-12%) lower YTD. This is due to strong planting in the US as well as weak import demand. USDA expects a record US corn harvest of 15.3 billion bushels this year. This is expected to lead to the highest levels of carryover stock since 2016-17. China’s imports and domestic production is expected to rebound sharply but is largely expected to be compensated for by huge carryover stocks in Brazil. Brazil is expected to be the largest corn exporter followed by the US. As such, harvests in both countries should be closely watched to identify shifts in projections. In case harvest in either country is lower than expected, it would not be able to match import demand from China which would lead to higher prices. Overall, USDA expects 27% lower average price for corn in 2023 at USc 480/bushel. This will lead to far higher global trade and consequently higher trading volumes in Corn futures. USDA’s WASDE REPORT IS AN IMPORANT RESOURCE FOR CORN TRADERS As stated, the USDA’s WASDE report is a critically important resource for investors. Specifically, the May WASDE report is vital for Corn as this is the start of the planting season and estimates in this report form the basis for the next marketing year’s outlook for major crops such as Wheat, Corn, and Soybeans. WASDE includes an outlook summary for each crop as well as statistics measuring the estimated demand, supply, exports, and carryover stocks for major countries as well as different regions within the US . The 2023 May WASDE report showed expectations of record global corn production as well as consumption. However, consumption is expected to lag production leading to larger ending stocks compared to last year. With higher ending stocks, supply of corn is expected to remain stable year-round. This is bearish for corn prices. Understanding the supply-demand characteristics in the WASDE report can equip investors with a long-term price outlook. Still, it is equally important to keep track of the market on an ongoing basis due to the myriad of factors affecting price as highlighted above. A summary of these is also given below. SIX KEY TAKEAWAYS In conclusion, the following key takeaways summarise this primer: 1. Corn is a versatile crop. It is a major source of food for humans and animals. 2. Gross production value of corn stood at $192 billion, second only to sugarcane (1.8B tons) by volumes and to rice production ($332B) by value. 3. US and China are the world's largest corn producers and consumers, representing over half of global corn production & consumption. 4. Corn prices are heavily influenced by the harvest season in US and China which overlaps between September and October. 5. Major demand sources for corn are animal feed, industrial use (especially ethanol production), and human consumption . 6. May WASDE report showed expectations of record production and consumption of corn and higher ending stocks, leading to lower prices. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
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CBOT:ZC1!
by mintdotfinance
4
Corn Prices Fizzle on Bumper HarvestCorn prices have fallen 14% since the start of 2023. The latest USDA report points to further downside. Corn prices are expected to fizzle with expectations of a bumper harvest combined with tepid demand. The USDA expects a record harvest of 15.27 billion bushels. The 2023/24 forecasts signal rising corn supply boosting ending stocks to their highest level since 2016/17. To hedge against falling corn price, this case study proposes a short position using CME Corn Futures (ZCN2023) expiring in July with an entry of 586.25 and a target of 433.25, which is hedged by a stop loss at 654.25, is likely to yield a reward-to-risk ratio of 2.25x. RECORD CORN HARVEST IS ANTICIPATED RESULTING IN SOARING ENDING STOCKS WASDE, short for World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, is a monthly report released by the US Department of Agriculture (“USDA”) that tracks the supply and demand for various agricultural commodities. In the latest WASDE report, released on May 12th, USDA expects a record 15.3 billion bushels of corn to be harvested in the US this year. The US is the largest producer of corn, representing 32% of total global production. Global corn production is expected to rise 6% YoY in 2023-24. While production is robust, demand and consumption are not expected to grow as fast. Global demand is expected to rise 3.7% with US consumption expected to climb 3.4%. This will result in an oversupply of corn with soaring inventory levels (i.e., Ending stocks). Ending stocks represent the supply of corn that is carried over to the next year. They are expected to rise 56% YoY to 2.2 billion bushels, the highest level since 2016-17. This leaves plenty of supply to accommodate any demand expansion. A bumper harvest in October is expected to cause an oversupply pushing corn prices lower. Despite the recent decline in corn prices, they remain significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels. With ending stocks now expected to reach pre-pandemic levels, prices will likely follow. WEATHER MAY UPSET BUMPER HARVEST EXPECTATIONS The WASDE estimate assumes stable weather conditions as well as demand assumptions regarding China. Weather conditions play a huge role in final harvested yield. In the current year, drought conditions & intense heat in Argentina led to lower crop yields. With extreme weather events rising globally, it is possible that unfavorable weather may reduce the final US corn output. China is the largest consumer of corn. With hopes of strong economic recovery still simmering, demand in China may spike higher than USDA expectations. If supply fails or demand spikes, Corn prices may remain steady or even rise. Asset Managers and Options Markets are positioning for Corn price to plunge CFTC’s Commitment of Traders Report shows that asset managers have more than doubled their net short positioning in Corn futures over the last twelve (12) weeks. Other reportable traders have reduced their net long positioning by almost 50% in the same period. Both indicate rising bearishness about corn prices. Similar sentiment is reflected in the options market. Although June and July contracts have Put/Call ratio of ~0.85 (more calls than puts), this is before the bumper harvest is expected (August-October). The September and December contracts which expire after the harvest have a Put/Call ratio of ~1.2. The futures forward curve, which is in backwardation, also shows expectations for prices to drop following the harvest. TRADE SETUP Each lot of CME Corn Futures provides exposure to 5,000 bushels of corn. A short position in CME Corn Futures expiring in July (ZCN2023) with an entry of 586.25 and a target of 433.25, which is hedged by a stop loss at 654.25, is likely to yield a reward-to-risk ratio of 2.25x. • Entry: 586.25 ¢/bushel • Target: 433.25 ¢/bushel • Stop: 654.25 ¢/bushel • Profit at Target: USD 7,650 • Loss at Stop: USD 3,400 • Reward-to-risk: 2.25x MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
CBOT:ZC1!Short
by mintdotfinance
Crop market forecastCrop dropped through the bottom after concernes about shortage switched to the low moving price down fast. If trader have big deposit he is already a buyer. If smaller he is waiting for a news and mean reversal pattern to develop to have a setup for a buy. Giving current situation in Commodities market it could take weeks for a price to respond to a buyer activity. Meanwhile hedgers and farmers are unloading their positions. Buying is justified if trader could wait and maybe buy more during said reversal and could take solid losses. Price action still looks dangerous for a buyer, sellers could trigger bigger drop in such market. Still what is happening in Crop is inretesting this is cleraly a price artefact which could be exploited for a solid profit.
CBOT:ZC1!
by UnknownUnicorn462803