Hi everyone... a quick take on Soybeans Futures
The current composite stock market sentiment is widely accepted to be a repeated cycle from the past. Some markets are leading within the cycle, others are lagging, yet, all are in a continuous band..... And now, SOYBEANS
This is the DJIA structure between November 1903 to February 1915, a 11.3 year cycle.
The...
After going higher the price closed lower at the end of the trading day. It createed a high wick which indicate that there is still possibility that price is going lower. Based on this for Week 7, price might see a movement lower towards at least 3815 area. Will need to see the price action at this level to see if price wanted to go higher.
Fundamental Outlook:
There’s no beating around the bush - the fundamental outlook for soybeans is bearish. Global ending stocks are now at all time highs per the last WASDE report, and export demand for U.S. soybeans has slowed considerably - currently down around 19% year-over-year. As South American harvest progresses, the outlook of the Brazilian soybean...
There’s no beating around the bush - the fundamentals for corn remain bearish ahead of Thursday’s USDA report. Last month, USDA caught many by surprise revising ‘23 corn yields to record-highs of 177.3 bushels per acre. Since then, corn futures have continuously grinded lower. But, could a short-covering rally be in the offing soon?
Per the last CFTC...
At the current level FCPO might have found support. Price is now ready to go higher. Immediate target is the previous high. There might be a bit of retracement before it should resume higher toward 4245 area.
CBOT:ZW1! Wheat is currently located in a weekly Fair value gap . On the daily chart we have been rejected by the FVG (checkpoint "1") and we reached (and totally respected) the volume imbalance (checkpoint "2") . After that point price may go up or down. We should see how market opens in Monday. One possibility is that wheat might be pricing higher , heading...
CBOT:ZC1! CBOT:ZS1! CBOT:ZW1! Those commodities had a very interesting price path so far. Since the Russian invasion these three commodities lost a lot of their value. More specifically wheat lost around -50% from its peak, corn -45% and soybeans around -30%. The ag-commodities market is pricing clearly in an oversold area that I think ,in my opinion , is...
One thing that never seems to change is as one sector advances another lags and while one lags the another advances. The allure of a rising market and fear of reversal in another causes capital rotation.
Looking at risk on assets they have made quite the advance into old highs and some all time highs while many commodities are reaching old lows and past long...
There is no signal yet for the end of the retracement. Short term target is the 3750-3740 area. Price will likely consolidate a bit in this area. Bullish camp might want to wait for bullish price action in this area before jumping in. Good luck!
FCPO is bullish however whether it will continue bullish will depends on the price action at the start of next week. It might push back towards 3870 area before making another push higher to the 4240 area.
- The market has been moving within a bearish channel since the beginning of December 2023, prices are therefore following a bearish trend in the medium term.
- Since the last impact on the bottom of the channel at $436.30, investor appetite has clearly returned, leading the market to a strong rebound. This change in sentiment was also confirmed on the DMI...
CBOT: Wheat ( CBOT:ZW1! )
In stark contrast to the rising stock market, most agricultural commodities have lost ground in 2023. In the Grain & Oilseeds market, CBOT Soybean (ZS) finished the year at $12.73 per bushel, down 14.7% year-on-year. CBOT Corn (ZC) closed at $4.63/bushel, down 30.8% YOY. CBOT Wheat (ZW) settled at $5.93/bushel, down 24.5%.
In the...
Short term FCPO is bullish. The immidiate target is 4043 area. Consolidation is expected and price might move down to 3800 area before resuming higher with a potential target of 4200 area.
This is the wheat indicator. Three historical upward waves were created, followed by three historical corrective waves to correct the rise that occurred, and then three historical upward waves are created again..
The game is played again and again
