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2-Year T-Note Futures (Mar 2023)

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ZTH2023 trade ideas

Can the 2 Year Treasury Note Rally? The recent rally of the 2-year Treasury has unfolded following Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's shift toward a slightly dovish stance in the latest policy meeting. Powell's rhetoric emphasized the importance of proceeding cautiously with the path of interest rates, prompting a surge in demand and short covering in the bond market. Against this backdrop, the persistent tightening of financial conditions has compounded concerns, with market participants closely monitoring the impact on economic growth. The rally in the 2-year Treasury reflects a repricing in the bond market, as traders and investors feel that the Fed is that closer to the end of this Quantitative Tightening cycle. Moreover, the specter of shrinking disposable incomes has cast a shadow over consumer spending, exacerbating concerns about the sustainability of economic growth. As disposable incomes dwindle, consumers typically curtail their spending, potentially dampening overall economic activity. As market participants navigate these uncertain waters, economic data will continue to be a headwind for Treasuries, and Equities. When looking at the technicals of the 2 year Treasury, there is major support from 101 ‘2 – 101 ’10. A break and close below this level would likely be coupled with better than expected economic data, and higher than expected inflation numbers. Major resistance was previously the trend line going back to the March 24th highs. After breaking and closing above this level, traders should look for a break and close above 101 ’25 to see further momentum. Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers: CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZT1!
by Blue_Line_Futures
The Bottom For the 2 Year Treasury NoteTreasuries have continued to sell off as the Treasury market reprices both interest rate and inflation expectations. Recently, the yield curve has begun to steepen further, and the 2s – 10s inversion has gradually decreased. The longer end of the Treasury market has experienced a significant increase in supply due to Congress's spending increases and liquidation by foreign debt holders. So the question arises: Is this the bottom in for shorter-duration Treasuries, like two year notes? The two-year Treasury note exhibits interesting technical features. Currently, major trend line resistance and the 50-day EMA have converged at the 101’15 level, serving as a significant resistance point for the two-year note. To gain more upside conviction, we would need to witness a break and close above this level. A move higher is likely to coincide with softer economic data and inflation returning to the Fed's 2% target. Conversely, if we continue to observe economic strength and persistent inflation, major support will remain at the 101’03’5 level. A break and close below this level is likely to trigger additional liquidation. While the market is currently undergoing a substantial repricing of longer-duration Treasuries, the two-year note (shorter duration) price change will be less susceptible to interest rate fluctuations. Using the CME Fed Watch tool is an excellent way for traders to monitor the bond market's current view of interest rate expectations CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZT1!
by Blue_Line_Futures
The yield curve has to un-invert eventually… right? (Part 2)This week, we thought it will be interesting to review the trade from last week given the reaction post-FOMC, as well as discuss an alternative way to set up this trade. Firstly, let’s review the post-FOMC/employment data reaction. - Nonfarm Payrolls surprised to the upside, as over half a million jobs were added way above the estimates of a sub 200K number. - Unemployment rate continues to fall further, reaching a 53-year low of 3.4% A clear re-pricing has occurred since last Friday’s better-than-expected jobs data and Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting. With markets now expecting 1 more rate hike in May, bringing the peak rate up from the 475 -500 bps range to the 500-525 bps range. Keeping this in mind, we go back to our analysis last week to understand this situation and historical precedence. While the time for a pause in rate hike seems to be pushed back, in the grand scheme of things, we think that this has only kept the window of opportunity for this trade open for longer and at a more attractive entry point now. Without repeating ourselves too much, we encourage readers to take a look at our idea last week which explores the historical correlation between the peaking of yield curve inversion and the pause in Fed rate hikes. Link to our last week’s idea: This week, let’s tap into a different instrument. Here, we aim to take a short position on the 2Y-10Y yield differential by creating a portfolio of Treasury futures to express this view. To do so, we would have to first select the 2 instruments, the 2-Yr Treasury futures is a straightforward choice for the short end. But for the 10-Yr leg, we have a choice of the '10-Yr Treasury Note Futures' vs the 'Ultra 10-Yr Treasury Note Futures'. Digging into the contract specification, the 'Ultra 10-Yr Treasury Note Futures' provide a better proxy for the true 10-year duration exposure as the delivery requirements are for Treasuries with maturities between 9year 5 months and 10 years. In comparison, the underlying of '10-Yr Treasury Note Futures' has a maturity between 6 year 6 months and 10 years. With contract selection out of the way, the next step is to calculate the Dollar Neutral spread. This requires us to identify the DV01 of the front and back legs of the spread and try to match them. This is to ensure that the entire position remains as close to dollar neutral as possible, so we can get a 'purer' exposure to the yield difference between the front and back legs, and parallel moves are negated. CME publishes articles on this topic to explain the setting up of a DV01 spread clearer than we can explain. You can find them attached in the reference section below. You can handily find the DV01 of the Cheapest To Deliver (CTD) securities on CME’s website. In this case, we are looking at the 2Yr and Ultra 10Yr Treasury Futures to set up the trade. With the DV01 of the 2Yr at 34.04 and the DV01 of the Ultra 10Yr at 96.26. The spread ratio can be calculated as 96.26/34.04 = 2.83. Rounding this to the nearest whole number, we would need 3 lots of2-Yr Treasury Future and 1 lot of Ultra 10-Yr Treasury Future, to keep the DV01 equal (neutral) for both legs of this portfolio. Given our view of the 2Yr-10Yr yield spread turning lower, we want to short the yield spread. Yield and prices move inversely, hence, to short the yield spread, we long the Treasury Futures spread as it is quoted in price. We can long 3 ZTH3 Futures (2Y Treasury Future) and short 1 TNH3 futures (Ultra 10Y Treasury Future) to complete 1 set of the spread. However, since the 2-Yr Treasury Futures has a notional value of 200,000 while the Ultra 10Y Treasury Futures a notional of $100,000, the price ratio will be 6:1 when the position/leg ratio in the spread trade is 3:1. As such the current level would provide us with an entry point of roughly 494 with a minimal move in Ultra 10yrs representing 15.625 USD and that in 2Y representing 7.8125 USD. While slightly more complex in setting up, this trade allows us another alternative to express the same view on the yield curve spread differential. Being able to execute the trade via different instruments allows you to pick the most liquid markets to trade or take advantage of mispricing in the markets. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description. Reference www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com
Editors' picks
CBOT:ZT1!Long
by inspirante
9
ZT1!. P-Modeling Pt 3. The Bonds of Cajuns within Two YearsWelcome to the Hyperspace. Today we look at the correlation between Covid-19 and Two Year T-Note Futures ZT1! . Please see Pt 2 for Idea Development. Wave One of Covid-19: Feb - March till June 2020. Wave Two of Covid-19: June-Dec 2020 I have bonds going all the way to 117'', with a wick even higher for Short Entries. Current is.. 110''15'3 _____________________________________________________ Looking for distinct stepping pattern. Presidential Transition. Joe Biden will be out. Bernie Sanders will be in. Trump will lose to Sanders with a landslide victory in the 87% range. Bernie Sanders wins 2020 United States Presidency. Cue. Enter the Roaring 20s. ______________________________________________________________________ Sequence --> COVID-19 Wave One -----> Civil Unrest ---> COVID-19 Wave Two ---> Civil Unrest ---> Covid-19 Wave Two Criticality --> Civil Unrest ---> Presidential Transition ---> Civil Unrest ---> Bernie Sanders Wins 2020 Presidency. SPX will be decimated. Stocks will Execute Black Swan. Interesting Times Indeed.. But will it manifest? Of course it will.. We are Cajun's of the Light. This sure is going to be one of the craziest rides in American History, Thanks for Pondering the Unknown with Me, Glitch420
CBOT:ZT1!Long
by Glitch420
2
ZT1!. P-Modeling Pt 2. The Unthinkable Proposition of Cajun's. Welcome to the hyperspace correlation between Covid-19 and Two Year T-Note Futures ZT1!. Wave One of Covid-19: Feb - March till June. Big increase in Bond Buying. Then curve is flattening. Wave Two of Covid-19: June till November. Round Two & Three. Looking for distinct stepping pattern. Presidential Transition. Bernie Sanders wins 2020 United States Presidency. Sequence --> COVID-19 Wave One -----> Civil Unrest ---> COVID-19 Wave Two ---> Civil Unrest ---> Covid-19 Wave Two Criticality --> Civil Unrest ---> Presidential Transition ---> Civil Unrest ---> Bernie Sanders Wins 2020 Presidency. Interesting Times Indeed.. But will it manifest? This sure is going to be one of the craziest rides in American History. Thanks for Pondering the Unknown with Me, Glitch420
CBOT:ZT1!Long
by Glitch420
The Best Yield Curve Tutorial You've Ever ReadThe two year has remained relatively flat since this week's open. However it did gap up significantly. Why is the 30 year falling (see linked article) while the two year remains consistent? Bonds of different maturities care about different things. In particular, the shorter end of the spectrum cares less about the long term effects of inflation and the general position in the economic cycle than the long end. Why? Those effects will be felt less in two years than the short term effects of interest rate decisions or the sentiment about it. Conversely, the 30 year has more time to price in these factors. It has to take in the considerations above, and more. Hence why the 30 year is tumbling right now, as it's more sensitive to risk sentiment and longer term factors. Don't forget that bonds are fixed income products, meaning they pay a yield that is inversely proportional to the price. The difference between the yield at either end of the spectrum is commonly referred to as the yield curve . The yield curve could also refer to a plot of the set of all yields on treasury products of various maturities. The difference between the two ends could narrow, or flatten . It could also steepen . Furthermore, that flattening or steepening could be driven by either end. In this case it is led by the long end. Since prices are decreasing (on account of risk on sentiment), we call this a long end led bear steepener . If you liked this analysis, subscribe for more content. Also check us out at Ghost Squawk!
CBOT:ZT1!Education
by quantguy
ZT1! P-Modeling Pt 1. 2 Year T-Note Futures. Extreme CajunZT1! 2 Year T-Note Futures Extreme Prediction Modeling Architectures The following is an very experimental Extreme Long Range Prediction Model, using quantum graphing decoding protocols that were developed to tease out very complex long range modeling architectures... This has mostly common sense schematics outlined.. Find the 2 year cycle patterns. Decode the Matrix Residual from those patterns. Copy/Paste correct residuals into hyperspace. Gather Geometric Support thru Regression/Vector blueprints of ecosystem. Post idea and wait... I do not expect to be right. Fully.. But, this is potentially a full ecosystem reset ... Laugh now... Cry Later.. Doubt is an illusion to the truth... Doubt now, Laugh Later.. Failure is a necessary component of success. ;) Welcome to the Hyperspace and thanks for pondering the unknown with me, Glitch420
CBOT:ZT1!Short
by Glitch420