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Bitcoin Futures (Mar 2025)

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BTCH2025 trade ideas

BTC/USD bowl. Breakthrough 64-72. Cyclicality. Nasdaq - BTC.Logarithm. Completion time 1 week. Instead of updating an old idea regarding the Nasdaq Index and BTS on pump cup formation published on 06/17/2023, I decided to implement the idea on a live chart. Comparative analysis. Fractal. Lag. Bitcoin and Nasdaq 17 06 2023 I have applied the cup percentages as well as the cup with handle if formation occurs (high probability). Although the cycle high targets and timing are the same as what I showed in 2022 during the Bitcoin accumulation phase. So, for clarity with the last cycle and its highs in 2021. BTC/USD Secondary trend cycles and halvings . 1 07 2022 BTC/USD Halving 518 When will be the cycle price low and high. 02.09.2023 BTC/USD Main trend (3 years) Channels Triangle 09 2023 At the moment, the price is above the “demons of Solomon” zone, that is 72,000. Zone 64-72 – resistance of the large bowl (last cycle highs 64-69). Let's follow the fractal similarity of 2015-2017. There is a high probability that a rollback will occur slightly higher, and a long-term bullish formation will be formed (trend direction, large time frame) — “Bowl with handle”. Or straight to the psychological level of 100?). Pay attention to interest rates and price levels in the past and now. 1️⃣ Let me remind you that in April the halving is closer to the 20th. Most likely this will happen on the day "18" . Do you think that bitCocaine will cost 84,018 closer to this time?) What will happen to this zone? 2️⃣ Psychological PR level - the zone for Bitcoin is $100,013. 3️⃣ Everything else probably looks unreal for most market participants, but what is shown now is real, just as it was a very long time ago. Adhere to these simple rules: 1) Understand and exploit the cyclical nature of the market. 2) Buy low, sell high. And not vice versa like most). 3) Take profits in parts on the hype (now) in a growing trend or protect with a stop loss. 4) Have an understanding of the relationship between the liquidity (capitalization, roughly speaking) of a trading instrument and its volatility and potential. 5) If you trade locally. The crowd is shouting: “cryptocurrency is a scam” - buy it. “Crypto hype” - sell it. 6) Do not be interested in the news and the opinion of the majority, this is all “taken into account in the price movement schedule.” 7) Always have at least 20-30% of stablecoins in reserve. If, for example, in a developing trend there is a correction to quickly remove longs (futures, margin with large shoulders, in spot - stop loss) by a significant%, and some of your stops do not work due to price slippage, then a “cash airbag” will calm and warm you in such an unpleasant moment).
CME:BTC1!Long
by SpartaBTC
6
BTC 2024-2025For the past year another bullish cycle was incepted in BTC. Once again, it started from the key support zone, which represents miners' breakeven price. The strong bullish market sentiment last year was supported by a risk-on environment in financial markets: Supressed dollar sterngth, decreasing oil and gas prices Increasing buybacks in the US corporate sector Strong results of the "magnificent seven" and anticipation of the AI revolution Fed provided liquidity to mitigate the consequences of the SVB collapse, and decreased the rate of quantitative tightening (QT) All this provided favorable liquidity conditions in the markets, setting the stage to propel the crypto market. Now that BTC has reached an all-time high (ATH), and on-chain metrics look very strong according to Glassnode, the question remains: will this bullish cycle follow the same pattern as after previous BTC halvings, or will it be somewhat different? As for now I see the following possibilities: Best-case: Confidence: 69% Description: BTC will continue ongoing bullish cycle as during the past cycles. However investors should be aware of the possibility of temporary consolidation before ATH break out (similar to what we saw in spring-summer 2023 before last autumn bull-run). Min pull-back price: ~50K$ Max target price: >130K$ Base-case: Confidence: 21% Description: False ATH breakout will provoke a deeper pull-back before continuation of bullish cycle. In case the price starts sliding down, investors should check how the market reacts on the 50K price zone. Market inability to break ATH after such consolidation, will provoke a deeper pull-back. Min pull-back price: ~35K$ Max Target price: ~100K$ Worst-case: Confidence: 10% Description: False ATH breakout will provoke strong bearish trend to last year low and miners breakeven price range. This will require a black-swan event and rapid deteoration of financial market's sentiment. This is very unlikely because the US government will try all possible means to keep markets strong before the POTUS election. Min pull-back price: ~20-25K$ Max Target price: ~80K$ Conclusion: The best-case scenario looks the most probable (69%), there are some factors which may come into play in the foreseeable future and enact downward price pressure: Having BTC and ETH ETFs approved, investors and traders might follow a psychological pattern of selling the news. This could be exacerbated this autumn by tighter monetary conditions due to a prolonged period of high rates before the Fed is forced to start easing despite sticky inflation. Additionally, the BTC halving event might produce a lesser impact during this cycle, as newly mined coins will constitute only a minor share of coins already in circulation. So there is a slight chance (21%) that the market might behave differently than past bull cycles. Over the course of the year I will continue posting updates on whether the market confirms this outlook, and I'll keep you updated throughout the year if the alternative scenarios unfold.
CME:BTC1!Long
by Cassandra299
Bitcoin looks set to rally above 60kWe all know of the strong rally that catapulted to a fresh record high in March. Yet price action since appears to be corrective. Whilst we do not yet know if this is simply the first leg lower of a complex correction, or it is set to break to new highs - only time will tell. However, it appears set for a leg higher over the near term. Volume retreated with prices since the March high, which is a typical characteristic of a retracement. Yet a final stab lower found support at the 100-day EMA, 38.2% and 50% retracement levels before a mini V-bottom formed. This also coincided with RSI (14) hitting oversold, which I define as below 40 during an uptrend. The prices have since retreated lower from the rally back above 65k, and showing signs of stability above 60k. The retracement held above the 61.8% Fibonacci level and are now holding above the 50% level. Bulls could enter live at market with a stop below 60k (or recent swing low) with an initial target at 65.5, a break above which brings 68k into focus - or the highs near the high-volume node.
CME:BTC1!Long
by CityIndex
Swing & Day Trading Bitcoin LongsBitcoin is the cleanest uptrend of my watchlist right now. I'm looking to buy any weakness to $65,000. Daily RSI Crossover indicates we could be at the start of another bullish "cycle" providing a good risk reward opportunity. I'm preparing to execute aggressively if conditions require. Daily closes below $65,000 or sustained movement below $63,000 would invalidate this setup. Any trades upcoming this week will be posted below. Likes and Follows are appreciated
CME:BTC1!Long
by GrayTrader01
MBT long/short if-then scenarioIf price returns to discount, then I am looking at Friday's BISI for longs. There is 1D v.POC & t.POC in proximity. I prefer this first, as untapped t.POC at 69650 is a great initial target for longs Stop loss near the 67100 local low upon End of Value The higher probability, if price forces a higher high I am looking for a short Right above this local high is a t.POC, there is also as SIBI from Thursday. Also a very large volume node & potential for RSI bear div. I will NOT put blind limits for anything. I will be watching structure on the lower TF (5min) as we approach these key levels; among other edge, & these are just key levels N.F.A.
CME:MBT1!
by dontbeal8m8
BTC Long, possible path to 100k if bulls step in fast and hardBTC has a chance to reach ~100k if it can get above the previous ATH of ~74k considering the recent uptrend and interest since the 57k bottom forming a higher high. Otherwise, if BTC gets under 65k, it will likely continue its range until Aug and form another pivot. More so, if it closes under 62k on a daily candle. It'll bring consideration of reaching 45k if we close under 57k. In the event of hyperinflation or BTC exceeding 110k, I suspect it to max out at 145k, 195k, or 235k. 30k-35k is roughly the capitulation zone/hard bottom in a worst-case scenario to where it begins to compromise the network for this cycle. Note that current prices above 65k are met with extreme resistance for good reason if you're looking at the right charts surrounding liquidity/fair value, pointing toward a cycle top or at least a mid-cycle top similar to 2019. Also, the market shifted bullish at the 70k top on May 20th, so there is consideration for a correction. BTC wouldn't be abnormal to trade as a ranging asset considering how fund managers will likely rebalance/offset risk with the near 100% returns since the ETF's inception. By ranging, I mean both, 74k-57k until Aug, and 74k-30k until EOY. Early June may present itself as an unexpected downward move. Not sure of its strength, guessing -8-10%. Be weary of more geopolitical events affecting price in the coming months. Overall, the BTC is neutral/bullish in the short term if it can hold 65k and overtake 74k, giving the chance of reaching 100k by Aug. Bearish long term while it is under 75k, vulnerable to ranging to 57k until Aug, or even worse to a low of 35k or 45k through the rest of the year. However, its more probable that the short term neutral/bullish case takes place at current prices and conditions as of when this idea is published. Long at 67.5k tp 76k, 85k, 94k, 106k (likely close here) sl 62.5k Long at 60k (if prev long got stopped out and we do range) - expires by early Aug if not filled same tps sl 55k Long at 46k same tps sl 40k
CME:BTC1!Long
by linebands
BTC and the current trading rangeI am a #BTC bull, so any contrarians should reverse everything I say from now on. #Bitcoin halving is days away. The trend following a halving is at least 6-months to the upside. We're already 2 months into a #BTCUSD bull-cycle. So I am bullish in this current trading range, meaning looking for "Buy-the-Dips". The trading range is from the ATH @ $75185 in the futures down to $61790, so buying under 68470 is my idea of being a "BTD" investor. I thought Wednesday this week was my last chance but the market gods gave everyone at least a second bite at the apple. On review, we could also see $64370 get tested so I am holding out for that level now. I like the weekly volume analysis as the Points of Control give some decent context to where to look for the trades. If you test the range from the beginning of March SWB:69K is the level everyone is looking to act as a pivot. Below $62k I crawl back under my rock and think of something else to analyse.
CME:BTC1!Long
by Macrobriefing
The btcusd weekly on the CMEWeekly session just closed which erases the last four weeks of declines and uncertainties, the candle is larger and also seems to express decision. I think it is normal to see movements of this type after quite significant bearish pressure, it is not a clear signal that the correction is over, but we can see it as a beginning or at least an important rebound. The minimum at 56.5k USD therefore becomes the level where the margins of those who have gone long in recent weeks are placed. If I analyze the futures, it is necessary to think in these terms. On derivatives there is a technique of the large managers called "stop hunting loss or margin call", means that once the level in which the liquidations are concentrated has been identified, the price will go there and then resume the previous run or direction, after all, here we are dealing with brokers who trade against you , so for every user who gains, they lose. The CME is different but not so much, it is taking shares of open interest, as can be seen below, taking advantage of the moment in which others flee from the exchanges, maybe things are correlated or maybe not. It remains strange that once the institutions entered, the battles to regulate this and that began. Those who have known Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies for a while know well that they were created to improve old methods, but here we are witnessing a fusion between old and new, so the price movements we are seeing have become much more technical, yes says that the market has achieved more efficiency than in the past, perhaps, what has not changed and will never change is the method for taking money from all participants.
CME:BTC1!
by Melupira89
🅱️ Bitcoin's Crash Starts Next Week (Weekly Chart)Are you a Bitcoin futures trader? If you are, I am sure you will agree with what you are about to read: 👉 Bitcoin is set to crash next week. Looking at this chart, we have: ➖ First, a top pattern in the form of a cap. ➖ Then, both the ATH and proceeding lower high sessions closed red; both below EMA10. ➖ We have two weeks of trading below EMA10; bearish bias confirmed. Expect something like this: 👉 First a drop toward EMA50 (~46,000) that will surely produce a bounce and short-term lower high, followed by a test of MA200 around $34,000. This is based on the weekly timeframe. Let me know if you agree in the comments. Thanks a lot for your continued support. Namaste.
CME:BTC1!Short
by AlanSantana
3
75: Assessing Bitcoin's Weakening, Exploring Strategic OptionsAs we closely monitor the current trajectory of Bitcoin, it's evident that its strength is diminishing, prompting a thoughtful examination of our strategic options. In navigating this landscape, it's imperative to remain agile and responsive to market dynamics. Should we witness a loss of the 65475 mark within the span of this week, the scenario of adopting short positions becomes a compelling consideration. This tactical move would capitalize on the prevailing bearish sentiment, potentially yielding favorable outcomes amidst downward price movements. Conversely, if the aforementioned threshold remains unbreached, our focus shifts towards discerning signs of renewed bullish vigor within the market. We eagerly anticipate indications of resurgent momentum, signaling a favorable environment for reassessing and potentially bolstering our long positions. In essence, our approach remains adaptive and nuanced, attuned to the ebb and flow of market dynamics. By remaining vigilant and responsive to emerging trends, we position ourselves to navigate the evolving landscape of Bitcoin trading with prudence and effectiveness.
CME:BTC1!Short
by Soldi75
HODL with a TwistCME: Micro BTC Futures ( CME:MBT1! ) Federal Reserve monetary policy is the dominant market mover across asset classes. Financial markets around the world rise and fall by any hint of the next policy move. Last Friday, US stocks jumped after a weak April jobs report boosted hopes that the Fed could start cutting interest rates soon. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 450 points, or 1.18%, to 38,675. The S&P 500 surged 1.26% to 5,128, while the Nasdaq Composite rallied 1.99% to close at 16,156. The nonfarm payrolls report, released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, showed 175,000 jobs gain in April, below the 240,000 jobs expected by Dow Jones economist survey. The unemployment rate edged up to 3.9%, versus 3.8% in March. After the jobs report, traders now price in a second rate cut by the end of 2024. Fed funds futures trading data suggests a 66% likelihood of a 25-basis-point rate cut in September, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tracker of futures market pricing. Don’t Pinch Your Hope on More Rate Cuts Investors often attempt to front run the Fed’s decisions. Track records show that they are usually wagering the wrong bet. As recently as last December, they expected seven rate cuts in 2024 and pushed major stock indexes to a series of new record highs. Lately, the rebounding inflation ditched the hopes for early rate cuts. Before last week, market consensus was down to one rate cut in 2024, with talks of no cut and even a rate hike. In my opinion, investors speculating on rate cuts overlooked a key factor, the 2024 US Presidential Election. With election day less than six months away, the Fed would be cautious with abrupt policy moves. They tend not to shift policy directions ahead of the election, just to stay clear of any accusation of influencing the result in any way. Many investors pinch rate cut hopes on the assumption that the Fed would ease rates to help the current Administration get reelected. They failed to understand that the Fed Chair is not a cabinet member. He reports to the Congress, not the President. The Federal Open Market Committee, the rate-setting body, is not a department in the Executive Branch. It was founded by the Congress and will report to the Congress only. The Fed has kept the rate higher for longer than many of us expected. Since the last rate hike in July 2023, they kept the Fed Funds rate unchanged in the past six meetings. Borrowing costs, including mortgage rate, auto financing, credit card and business loan, have all been pushed up significantly in the last two years. One or two rate cuts would not materially lessen the cost burden incurred by households and businesses. Despite headwinds and signs of the US economy cooling off, US stocks are currently priced near their all-time high levels. It is not a good time to jump in and chase the high prices. On the other hand, shorting the market now is a risky proposition. Investors exhibit strong tolerance for bad news. The best move is to wait. Outside of stocks, cryptocurrencies show upside potentials, particularly from a long-term perspective. Investing in Bitcoin for the Long Haul On February 14th, I posted this trade idea, “A Bitcoin Bull Run?”. At the time, spot Bitcoin was trading at around $50,000. Bitcoin reached a new all-time-high of $73,000 on May 3rd. It has since fallen to as low as $58,000 and is now trading at $64,125. I identified three fundamental key drivers for a secular long-term bull market for cryptocurrencies, which is recapped below: • Firstly, there is a limited supply of bitcoins with a total cap of 21 million. • Secondly, the demand for crypto investment could increase substantially. • Thirdly, an excessive dollar supply could help raise bitcoin prices. Today, I would like to focus on the technical strength illustrated in Bitcoin price chart. In the past eight years, Bitcoin managed to reach a new high four times, after experiencing significant drawdown each time. • After peaking at $20,089 in 2017, Bitcoin fell 84% to $3,191 by December 2018. • The next bull run, starting in September 2020, pushed Bitcoin price to a new ATH at $58,777 in March 2021. This is a gain of 192% from the previous ATH, and up 1742% from the previous low. • Bitcoin price was cut in half to $29,562 in July, before rising to another ATH of $69,000 in November 2021. This is a gain of 17% from the previous ATH, and up 133% from the previous low. • In the next year, Bitcoin fell to $16,625, a drawdown of 76%. The SEC approval of Bitcoin ETF pushes the benchmark cryptocurrency to its new ATH of $73,000 in March 2024. This is a gain of 6% from the previous ATH, and up 339% from the previous low. Bitcoin price trend shows that investing in Bitcoin in the long run has been profitable. However, timing makes a significant difference in investment returns. Trading Bitcoin with Futures Rollover Strategy While the view of holding on for dear life (HODL) is shared by many Bitcoin investors. There are several issues when it comes to investment strategies. Firstly, with bitcoin trading over $64,000, future price increases do not offer the same level of return dollar for dollar. Hypothetically, if Bitcoin goes back up to its ATH of FWB:73K from GETTEX:64K , the $9,000 gain equals to 14% in return. For a comparison, if you bought Bitcoin for $17K in December 2022, the same $9,000 gain would be 53% in return. To counter the effect of higher prices, investors could consider using leverage. CME Micro BTC futures ( LSE:MBT ) provide leverage and capital efficiency. The contract notional is 1/10 of 1 BTC. Initial margin is $1,515. The June contract (MBTM4) was last settled at $63,865. At current price there is a 4.2 times leverage built in the contract, which is the ratio of 6,386.5 (1/10 of 1 BTC) divided by 1,515. If the futures price touches the previous ATH, a long futures position would gain $913 (= 7,300-6,387), and the return would be a +60%, vs. +14% investing in spot Bitcoin, as we illustrated above. Secondly, futures contracts have a limited lifespan that will influence the outcome of your trades and exit strategy. Micro Bitcoin trades actively in the nearby May and June contracts. Liquidity in the back-month contracts has yet to pick up. A trader may be right about the long-term rise in Bitcoin prices. However, this may not happen in the next two months before the nearby contracts expire. To maintain a long position in Bitcoin over the long run, while enjoying capital efficiency through leverage, a trader may employ a futures rollover strategy. Rollover is when a trader moves his position from the front month contract to another contract further in the future, prior to the expiration of his existing holding. The title chart illustrate how to hold a long Micro Bitcoin Futures (MBT) position overtime: • In April, a trader buys (going long) a June contract (MBTM4). • Approximately two weeks before the contract expires on June 28th, the trader enter an offsetting trade, going short on MBTM4, to close his existing position. He would book a profit or loss, determined by the difference in selling and purchasing prices. • Simultaneously, the trader would buy an August MBT contract (MBTQ4) and reestablish a long position in Bitcoin. • In mid-August, the trader will close out MBTQ4 (going short), and buy an October contract (MBTV4), and continue to hold a long position on Bitcoin. • The trader would repeat the above steps, so far as he holds a bullish view. Finally, Bitcoin prices are extremely volatile. Holding spot Bitcoin with no leverage could face potential drawdown of 70%-80%. With leverage in futures, a sharp price move in the wrong direction could quickly deplete the available fund and trigger margin calls. One advantage Micro Bitcoin has over the spot crypto is the daily price limit. If Bitcoin moves up or down 10% within the trading day, futures trading will be halted. This will give the market time to cool off and help investors avoid being blown out by short-term panic. Experienced investors may consider using stop loss on futures or buying a protective put options to hedge such downside risks. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME:MBT1!Long
by JimHuangChicago
3
Reverie about the next bear market for BTC.I had shared my target for BTC’s target CME:BTC1! in the long term. Now, what do I expect after reaching that target? As you can see, I lean towards the idea that BTC will enter a bear market after reaching 100k, so I'm not expecting 140k. However, it could happen if you use a logarithmic chart. This is a non-logarithmic chart. After reaching the PO3 target, the price will consolidate there, and then a bear market will begin. BTC, like any instrument, tends to fill its gaps. I've shown the gaps and filled gaps on the chart. Perhaps the next bear target for BTC is 9k. Who knows?
CME:BTC1!Long
by H-A_T