ES1! evening updateBullish count (in green) would have us working on a wave 4 down towards the 5000 level. Bearish count would have us either working on one final five wave impulse up or a truncated finish (top is in) and dramatic move downward. Key support is 5157.by discobiscuit1
ES Price Action Review Friday Mar 15thGoing Over Price Action for the DAy ES and looking for clues to what the markets are telling us. trying to go over all the lessons we learned this week battling and upgrade our new trading plan for next week. what's the plan for next week??? we'll go over it on Sunday after we finish our new trading plan. Have a good weekend everyone. Keep working hard. 04:06by BobbyS8131
A quiet day is expected on MondayA quiet day is expected on Monday in the S&P 500 as the market positions itself for the Fed announcements later in the week.02:21by DanGramza2
Have Not Closed BelowThis level since November 2023. I have been waiting for the break as it should be the first sign of what comes next. This is a backwards adjusted chart, however, it is likely confirming the market high from last Friday. A close below this level today should began the clock on the prior analyses attached to this ideaShortby StockSignaler1
Morning ES Price Action ReviewGoing over the MOrning Session ES getting clues, listening to what the market is telling us, waiting for confirmation and not being a Pyschic. 02:49by BobbyS8130
ES UpdateRut row, bottom channel broke and it looks like RSI is gonna go oversold. Still more room to teh downside before that happens. Cashed out my PCAR stock for a nice gain, better lucky than good, I guess. Made so much money off that stock though...by hungry_hippoUpdated 6
ES UpdateMFI hit oversold as predicted, same with NQ. RTY is a bit interesting, RSI hit oversold but MFI didn't. Not sure which way the market gaps tomorrow, but it is Ponzi Friday, and it looks like the market wants to pump going into the Fed meeting because Powell told Congress last week that he's cutting rates. It's the Village Idiot rally, lol.by hungry_hippoUpdated 448
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 03.10 - 03.15 Last Week : Last week market opened inside Value, first cleared upper stops then got a nice sell from 5154.25 - 59.25 Key Resistance area back down to VAL, cleared that Support and got continuation back inside lower Edge taking all the lower stops except the pinata stops at Key Edge Support of 5066.50 - 60.75. Lower Edge ended up holding and we got a push back inside Value where we pretty much spent Friday. We did make a push above VAH which was met with selling and we ended up closing back inside Value. I have rolled my contract so Friday was trading new contract which opened up at the above Edge, made a push to next VAL and as mentioned that was a good target for that day as we can see profit taking in those above areas going into the weekend which gave a nice sell back under the Edge towards VAH. This Week : This week can be tricky to try and guess for multiple reasons, it's Opex week, we are going through contract roll, we are around KEY HTF Area and of course plenty of data dropping as well. But at least we can have a what IF game plan to go into it and see how the week develops. Usually if you see a Failure over HTF Edge like we had on new contract Friday that could bring in weakness and give a move back down to previous ranges VAH / Mean / VAL and Lower Edge, which we could get BUT because old contract closed inside Value, new contract is currently inside this 5150 - 5250 potential balance area over VAH and higher time frames like 4hr / Daily are not showing trend change just yet which tells us we have to be careful forcing for that as market may hold and let things catch up while we digest another big move without giving that bigger sell that everyone keeps expecting. I will be taking this week level to level range by range unless it shows bigger moves are ready to happen which you could continue catching level to level anyway. New contract is currently inside 5199.75 - 5159.25 Range, we have trapped Supply over the Edge which could keep us under for time being but also failed to get inside or tag VAH from above on Friday which is telling us that there is buying which could give holds over and maybe smaller ranges again ? To see upside from here we would need to take out Current Key Resistance at 5204.25 - 5199.75 and for any continuation above we would have to get through Edge top as our Supply is above. Current Support will be our VAH top at 5188.25 - 84.50 - 82.50 area which we would need to get through to try and make a push back inside Value towards the mean. This 5204.25 - 5199.75 could act as temporary mean and we can see balancing around this Edge/VAH area until market will be ready to move again. Levels to Watch : Current Key Resistance 5207.50 5204.25 - 5199.75 Targets above 5219.75 - 15.75 // Would need to accept above to attempt a move past 5227 into 5234.25 - 30.25 Next Key Resistance 5249.75 - 5244.75 need to get over for attempt at new Value. Current Intrarange Support 5188.25 - 84.50 Targets below 5174.25 - 5170.50 // Key Support for anything lower 5159.25 - 54.25 IF Stronger sell volume does come in we can watch for continuation towards VAL. by HollowMnUpdated 1
Trading Plan for Friday, March 15th, 2024Trading Plan for Friday, March 15th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Cautious on OPEX Friday Weekly Volatility Risk: High (amplified by OPEX) Supports to Watch: Immediate Supports: 5213 (major), 5207, 5200 (major), 5196, 5192 (major), 5181, 5176, 5165 (major), 5160, 5152, 5146 (major), 5141, 5136, 5126, 5119, 5109-11 (major), 5102, 5091 (major), 5086-88 (major). Resistances to Monitor: Key Resistances: 5221 (major), 5229-32 (major), 5236, 5240, 5246, 5251 (major), 5257, 5264, 5269, 5278, 5287 (major), 5294-96 (major), 5308, 5315 (major), 5326, 5337, 5343 (major), 5352 (major), 5362, 5375-80 (major) Trading Strategy: OPEX Caution OPEX Volatility: Expect potential chop and poor follow-through due to options expiration dynamics. Exercise increased caution and prioritize capital preservation. Limited Positions: Reduce position sizes or consider sitting out the majority of the day. Avoid impulsive overtrading. Watch Out for Chop: The zone between 5192 and 5230 is particularly messy. Trade with extreme care within this range. Support Focus: Watch 5213 and 5200 for potential bounce plays, however, these zones are heavily used up and may not offer reliable setups. Long Opportunity: Look for longs around 5192 (the last major support before a steeper sell-off). Avoid longs below 5165. Bull Case OPEX Range: Expect a potential ugly range trade between 5192 (lowest support) and 5230. A successful defense of supports would set up a breakout towards 5251 and further toward the 5290s. Overnight Strength: If overnight trading shows basing below 5220, consider potential upside towards the next resistance level. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: Breakdown below 5191 could trigger selling pressure. Watch for shorting opportunities on failed breakdowns or bounces, ideally after a test of 5191. News: Top Stories for March 15th, 2024 Stock Market Rally: The S&P 500 continues its upward momentum, driven by strong fundamentals, earnings growth, particularly in the tech sector (AI stocks), and investor optimism for a Fed soft landing. Interest Rate Outlook: The Federal Reserve maintains its current interest rate policy but signals potential rate cuts later in the year. Mixed Economic Data: Economic indicators show both strength and pockets of weakness. GDP growth remains impressive, while inflation data suggests challenges in the Fed's fight to control prices. Banking Regulations: One year after bank run concerns, regulators prepare new rules to mitigate future financial instability. Corporate Debt Concerns: Corporate defaults rise, highlighting the strain of inflation and high interest rates on riskier borrowers. Private Equity Expansion: Private equity giants expand into consumer debt markets, potentially impacting household financial health. Inflation Updates: The CPI and Core CPI remain critical for understanding inflation trends and potential Federal Reserve rate changes. Global Risks: Monitor ongoing geopolitical tensions, climate risks, technological disruption, and election-related uncertainties for impacts on global markets. CFO Trends: Focus on digital transformation, strategic planning with AI/automation, and balanced growth strategies. Energy Transition: Challenges in the transition to net-zero energy become evident as major players face hurdles. Remember: Options Expiration (OPEX) can cause unpredictable market behavior. Trade with reduced risk, prioritize capital preservation, and be prepared for rapid shifts in direction. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Consult a professional financial advisor for trading decisions.by spytradingpro1
OverNight ES price action REviewGoing over the price action overnight ES. looking for clues and working on listening to what the market is telling us. no setup no trade today. Quad witching expecting volatility. Remember we are Risk Managers.Long02:14by BobbyS8130
Rest day on FridayAfter the volatility witnessed in the S&P 500 on Thursday, the expectation would be for Friday to trade inside the range of Thursday. Without new fresh fundamentals, a neutral close on Friday would be a logical way to finish out this week.01:45by DanGramza4
PPI ES Day Price Action ReviewGoing over the PPI report and the price action ES. what was the market telling us and how did we trade today. jumped the gun early and cost us a magnificent day. we were battling ourselves all day long felt almost like we were a step or 2 behind. Definitely weren't a Panther today. keep working hard. failure is needed to grow so don't be afraid to fail. we failed today. but we have a new plan to trade tomorrow. 05:28by BobbyS8130
PPI price ACtion Review ESGoing over the Price action after the PPI. market gave us a sell signal and dropped hard. found support and now in a bear flag. waiting for price discovery and looking back for the major clues. Short01:35by BobbyS8130
ESM24 LONG to Intraday HIGH (Channel Top)Looking for the BULLS to defend their Zone and take the market towards new highs.Long02:26by EconomicAlpha1
ES UpdateWell there's the pump and dump with the Thu dip I predicted earlier this week. Probably melts back up when MI hits oversold. Gonna wait until MFI goes oversold, maybe a small long play EOD for Ponzi Fridayby hungry_hippo7
Trading Plan for Thursday, March 14th, 2024Trading Plan for Thursday, March 14th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Cautious, watching for breakout direction Weekly Volatility Risk: High Supports to Watch: Immediate Supports: 5230-28 (major), 5220, 5213, 5202-07 (major), 5191, 5180-83 (major), 5167, 5162, 5156 (major), 5148, 5144, 5136, 5126 (major), 5115, 5108, 5103, 5088-91 (major), 5083 (major), 5076, 5071, 5067 (major), 5060, 5053, 5048 (major). Resistances to Monitor: Key Resistances: 5235, 5245 (major), 5257 (major), 5265, 5280 (major), 5287-90 (major), 5300, 5306, 5314, 5327, 5335 (major), 5340, 5346 (major), 5354, 5363-65 (major), 5374 (major), 5380, 5391 (major) Trading Strategy: Consolidation Zone: Price action between 5230 and 5245 indicates a new consolidation range. Exercise caution with overtrading within this range. Look for breakouts or breakdowns for clearer directional cues. Support Focus: Watch for potential long opportunities at 5230-28 (after a dip and reclaim) and 5220 (if today's low holds and reclaims). For aggressive traders, major supports like 5202, 5183, and 5156 offer potential bounce areas for catching points on a larger sell-off. Counter-trend Caution: (For experienced traders): Shorting green candles is risky. If a breakout above 5245 occurs, watch for short entries around the 5280-90 zone. Patience is Key: Prioritize capital preservation and wait for high-conviction setups. Bull Case: Flag Structure: Current price action could be forming a bull flag. Defending 5230 and 5220 supports keeps this scenario alive, targeting a potential breakout towards 5257, 5265, 5280, and the 5287-90 zone. Adding within Flags: Monitor for reclaims of 5235, indicating strength within the consolidation with the potential for another test of 5245. Bear Case: Breakdown Signals: Breakdown below 5220 could trigger selling pressure. Watch for shorting opportunities on failed breakdowns or bounces, ideally after a test of 5220. News: Top Stories for March 14th, 2024 U.S.-China Deal: The quiet extension of a bilateral agreement between the U.S. and China underscores ongoing complex diplomatic and trade relations. Chip Manufacturing Contrasts: Delays in a U.S. chip plant contrasted with Japan's on-schedule progress highlight the challenges and global dynamics in the semiconductor industry. Gaza Economic Crisis: Surging inflation in Gaza puts further strain on residents, particularly due to the dramatic price increase for essential goods. Immigration Impact: Post-pandemic urban growth in the U.S. is significantly driven by immigration, reshaping demographics and economic landscapes. TikTok Scrutiny: The U.S. House of Representatives takes a step towards potentially banning or forcing the sale of TikTok, citing national security concerns. Retail Landscape: Family Dollar's planned closures signal changes in the retail sector due to shifting consumer behavior. Labor Market Update: The robust U.S. job market adds 275K positions, a factor as the Fed weighs interest rate decisions. Additional Factors: Keep an eye on the upcoming PPI data, oil market dynamics, and Robinhood's surging trading volume for potential market implications.by spytradingpro0
ES Potentialy ShortThe market saw a large pullback in many recent equities this last Friday including companies like nVidia. I cant say that the chart looking bearish, we are still making some higher highs. Ive done some research to learn some shareholders are likely starting to take profits on stocks that had large rallies. But most importantly, it seems like we have some unfinished business down below where price attempted to test the low, but was just a few points away from doing so, front running the level. Looking for a small dip towards the support zone, and potentially lower if we flip the demand zones in supply. Lets see! Shortby afurs1Updated 2
Overnight Price Action REview ESGoing over price ES over night. looking for clues to what the market is telling us. PPI out at 0830. going to wait and adjust on the #'s. having a dynamic mind today waiting for setups. no setup no trade. good luck everyone. Today is the day.01:42by BobbyS8130
ES Weekly Levels (Mar11-15)Markets closed the week with a dip as record highs gave way to profit-taking. Chip stocks, including Nvidia, faced reversals, impacting the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. Despite a strong job growth report, rising unemployment and slowed wage growth tempered the market's enthusiasm. NVDA closed 10.14% off it's ATH and Costco's 7.6% drop signaled cautious consumer spending. NQ finished the week -1.44%, ES -0.11% and MYM -0.76%. XLY & XLK finished the week red, while defensive XLP & XLU closed green. This week earnings season will con't to wind down and the focus will shift to CPI & PPI data for the lates clues about potential rate cuts. SUMMARY ES had a weekly of 0.11% after trading in a wide range of 131 pts. ES made another ATH high but pulled back 1.10% on Friday. R1 = LTF 1.618 Fib X (5212) R2 = ATH (5257) S1 = 9 ema (5178) S2 = 21 ema (5133) Bias will remain long unless new information is presented or until the upward trendline is broken. Limited resistance levels above make large whole number very important. Potential risk-off shift for stocks last week. XLK & XLY down. XLU, XLP & XLRE up. NVDA dropped 10% from ATH. COST dropped 7% after earnings. Econ data this week includes CPI on Tuesday & PPI on Thursday. Watch for small cap growth to finally take off. RSI 62.25 | VIX at 14.75 | 10 year 4.25% by WadeYendallUpdated 5
Fundamental perceptions could be the driver of this market.The perceptions of the fundamentals on Thursday could provide the incentive for buyers to continue pushing the S&P 500 to higher levels. The perceptions I'm talking about would be the markets point of view of future Fed interest-rate action.01:21by DanGramza2
Reviewing Price Action ESgoing over the price action ES for Mar 13. lots of chop. couple really nice setups today. less is more. not much to do till PPI in the morning. always Remember where you'll get out if you're wrong. 01:42by BobbyS8130
Morning Price Action Review ESGoing over the Price Action ES. not much to do today. we're in Chop Mode. scaling down. not doing much focusing on longer time frames. not much to do. always remember where you'll get out if you're wrong. 01:28by BobbyS8130
3/13 Wednesday Trading PlanTrading Plan for Wednesday, March 13th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Neutral to Bullish Weekly Volatility Risk: High Supports to Watch: Immediate Supports: 5235, 5230, 5221 (major), 5214, 5207 (major), 5202, 5196, 5191 (major), 5181, 5175 (major), 5167, 5162, 5155 (major), 5148 (major), 5137 (major), 5125, 5115 (major), 5109, 5103, 5097, 5090 (major), 5082, 5077-80 (major), 5070, 5060 (Major), 5056, 5045-47 (major), 5038, 5026, 5018-20 (major), 5012, 5000 (major), 4990, 4982 (major). Resistances to Monitor: Key Resistances: 5242 (major), 5254, 5257, 5274-78 (major), 5283, 5290 (major), 5297, 5309, 5315, 5326 (major), 5331, 5341, 5345, 5355 (major), 5366 (major). Trading Strategy: Post Trend-Leg Caution: After the significant rally, short-term setups are less clear. Exercise caution with both longs (chasing, rug pull risk) and shorts (against the dominant trend). Let price discovery unfold before forcing trades. Support Focus: Watch for potential long opportunities at 5235, 5221, and particularly 5207. Look for reclaims or failed breakdown setups for stronger entries. Short Opportunities (For experienced traders): Consider shorts on confirmed breakdowns below 5207 or bounces off the 5274-78, and 5290 resistance areas. Patience is Key: Prioritize capital preservation and wait for high-conviction entries. Bull Case: Trend Continuation: The overall bull trend remains strong. Defending 5220 and 5207 supports paves the way towards new highs at 5254, 5274-78, and the 5290 macro magnet. Adding within Flags: Monitor for potential bull flags overnight between 5242 and 5230. Consider adding positions within a well-formed flag if a major new high is not made. Bear Case: Breakdown Signals: Breakdown below 5207 could trigger selling pressure. Watch for shorting opportunities on failed breakdowns, ideally after a bounce. News: Top Stories for March 13th, 2024 Economic Outlook: Despite President Biden's cautious economic forecasts in November, recent progress suggests a stronger outlook. Economists are predicting faster growth, lower inflation, and continued job creation. Housing Initiatives: President Biden's proposed initiatives to reduce housing costs aim to ease affordability challenges caused by inflation and high-interest rates. Cryptocurrency Trends: Meme coins are surging, while electric vehicle stocks see mixed analyst opinions highlighting the volatility of these sectors. Gold's Safe Haven: Amid geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty, the record-high gold price reflects its appeal as a safe-haven investment. Interest Rate Debate: Speculation continues around the timing of potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making trading decisions.by spytradingpro0