Candle wicks signal failed breakdowns?Looks like a failed breakdown here? Bears may be trapped under the 5180 level I am long at 5186Longby NCHammer111
Options Blueprint Series: Straddle Your Way Through The UnknownIntroduction Options trading offers a dynamic avenue for investors to navigate the financial markets, and among the myriad of strategies available, the Straddle strategy stands out for its unique ability to capitalize on market volatility without necessitating a directional bet. This article, part of our Options Blueprint Series, zooms in on utilizing Options on S&P 500 Futures (ES) to employ the Straddle strategy. The S&P 500 index, embodying a broad spectrum of the market, presents a fertile ground for options traders to implement this strategy, especially in times of uncertainty or ahead of major market-moving events. Understanding S&P 500 Futures Options Options on S&P 500 Futures offer traders and investors a versatile tool for hedging, speculating, and portfolio management. These options grant the holder the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the underlying S&P 500 Futures at a predetermined price before the option expires. Trading on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), these instruments encapsulate the market sentiment towards the future direction of the U.S. economy and stock market. Their popularity stems from the leverage they offer, alongside the efficiency and liquidity provided by the CME, making them an effective instrument for executing sophisticated strategies like the Straddle. The Core of the Straddle Strategy The Straddle strategy in options trading is a powerful method to exploit volatility. It involves simultaneously buying a call and put option on the same underlying asset, with identical strike prices and expiration dates. This non-directional strategy is designed to profit from significant price movements in either direction. For S&P 500 Futures options, this means traders can position themselves to benefit from market swings without trading the trends. The beauty of the Straddle lies in its simplicity and the direct way it captures volatility, making it a commonly used strategy in times of economic reports, earnings announcements, or geopolitical events that can trigger substantial market movements. Executing the Straddle Strategy on S&P 500 Futures Options Implementing a Straddle with S&P 500 Futures options involves a calculated approach. The first step is selecting the right expiration date and strike price, typically at-the-money (ATM) or near-the-market values of the ES options, to ensure a balanced exposure to price movements. Timing is crucial; initiating a Straddle ahead of anticipated volatility spikes can be more cost-effective, as option premiums tend to rise with increased uncertainty. Utilizing TradingView's comprehensive analysis tools, traders can gauge market sentiment, identify potential volatility catalysts, and choose the optimal entry points. Managing the trade requires vigilance, as the key to maximizing profits with a Straddle lies in the ability to respond adeptly to market shifts, possibly adjusting positions to mitigate risks or capture emerging opportunities. Market Analysis for Straddle Execution For a successful Straddle execution on S&P 500 Futures options, thorough market analysis is indispensable. Volatility, the lifeblood of the Straddle strategy, can be assessed using various technical indicators available on TradingView, such as the Average True Range (ATR) or the CME Group Volatility Index (CVOL). Economic indicators and scheduled events also play a crucial role. Traders should closely monitor the economic calendar for upcoming reports or news that could sway the market, adjusting their strategies accordingly. By analyzing past market reactions to similar events, traders can better predict potential price movements, enhancing their Straddle trade's effectiveness. Implied Volatility and CVOL Understanding Implied Volatility (IV) when trading Straddles is essential. IV reflects the market's expectation of a security's price fluctuation and significantly influences option premiums. Since the S&P 500 Futures is a CME product, examining CVOL could provide an advantage to the trader as CVOL is a comprehensive measure of 30-day expected volatility from tradable options on futures which can help to understand if options are underpriced of overpriced at the time of the trade. Strategic Risk Management for Straddle Trades Risk management is paramount in options trading, especially with strategies like the Straddle that involve multiple option positions. Setting predefined exit criteria can help traders lock in profits or cut losses, ensuring that one side of the Straddle does not negate the other's gains. It's also vital to consider the time decay (theta) of options, as it can erode the value of positions as expiration approaches. Utilizing stop-loss orders or adjusting the Straddle to a more defensive setup, like transforming it into an Iron Condor, are ways to manage risk. Moreover, traders must keep an eye on liquidity to ensure they can adjust or exit their positions without significant slippage. Case Study: Navigating Market Uncertainty with a Straddle on ES Options Let's examine a hypothetical scenario where a trader employs a Straddle strategy on S&P 500 Futures options ahead of a potential major expected movement as the S&P 500 gaps up significantly after making a new all-time high which may lead to an unsustainable market condition. The trader selects ATM options with a 50-day expiration, expecting a sharp price movement in either direction. Key S&P 500 Contract Specs Tick Size (Minimum Price Fluctuation): 0.25 index points, equivalent to $12.50 per contract. Trading Hours: Nearly 24-hour trading, starting from Sunday evening to Friday afternoon (Chicago times) with a 1-hour break each day. Cash Settlement: No physical delivery of goods; contracts are settled in cash based on the index value. Margin Requirements: Traders must post an initial margin and a maintenance margin, set by the exchange as a recommendation, to hold a position. These margins can vary based on market volatility and changes in the index value. Currently: $11,800 per contact. Trading Venue: S&P 500 Futures are traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). Access and Participation: Available to individual and institutional investors through futures brokerage accounts. Leverage and Risk: Futures offer leverage, meaning traders can control large contract values with a relatively small amount of capital, which also increases risk. Long Straddle Trade-Example Underlying Asset: E-mini S&P 500 Futures (Symbol: ES1!) Strategy Components: Buy Put Option: Strike Price 5200 Buy Call Option: Strike Price 5200 Net Premium Paid: 195 points = $9,750 Micro Contracts: Using MES1! (Micro E-mini Futures) reduces the exposure by 10 times Maximum Profit: Unlimited Maximum Loss: Net Premium paid Conclusion The Straddle strategy, when applied to S&P 500 Futures options, offers traders a potent tool to potentially profit from market volatility without taking a directional stance. By understanding the nuances of the S&P 500 Futures options market, meticulously planning their Straddle setups, and employing rigorous risk management practices, traders can navigate the complexities of the options landscape with confidence. Continuous learning and practice, particularly in simulated trading environments, are essential for refining strategy execution and enhancing trade outcomes. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.Educationby traddictiv2
Possible period of acceptance here Price action is at an interesting juncture just below resistance from this morning's action and last Friday's close. If price was to sell down from here, I will be short at 5183Shortby NCHammer0
ES Failed Breakdown alertIf the failed breakdown is to play out, the trigger is the break of 5201 which is quite evident on the 2 hour chart. You have to be stupid not to see it and equally stupid not to go long if it plays out.Longby nctrades88110
Weekly price Action Review ESGoing over the weekly Price Action for the ES. sharing what we found with our scans and our plan for the next day or 2. 03:40by BobbyS8130
Possible reversal AFter the attempted sell off this morning, market might be trying a fakeout reversal. I've got a buy order at 5193.50Longby NCHammerUpdated 0
Short ESWeak start for ES. Shorted at 5183.50 after retest of the box pattern and failure there Possible continuation of the weakness seen on Friday Shortby NCHammer0
SP500, Game plan.ES/SP500/US100 Hello Traders, Welcome back to another market breakdown. Today, I've got an exciting video for you as I dive into the current state of the S&P 500 and explore various strategies based on different market scenarios. Whether you're an experienced investor or just getting started, this video will help you better understand how to navigate the dynamic world of the stock market. Trade safely, Trader LeoShort11:49by Leo-btm2
Example of trading a short on flag pattern failureThe chart shows the setup. Wait for a bearish engulfing candle to form which breaks down out of a well defined range. Place a sell order at the lowest low of that rangeShortby NCHammer0
ES/MES Correction EstimatesVolume profile cannot lie. We are needling out, there is no oxygen up here, and this rally broke through the 50% line of this range on a total abstract squeeze. So... Bears see the fatigue and they see a rate decision in June. I have a chart of the Mag 7 only, because they are the real index. It's gone parabolic. And it has a weekly candle that is a big tall Doji. And the volume is even more of a needle than the indexes. The old market was boring. Mag 7 trade like small cap. They are the only thing that seems to matter. So, we have to accept that price swings will be huge and dramatic. So a drop to 3700, the bottom of the major volume range over this last few years, was a big deal ten years ago, but now? It's the new normal. I'm not saying I've done a good job trading it, I'm just taking a swing at it. This rally was terrible. It was ugly, jittery, low volume, squeeze after squeeze until we reached a fib level on this channel that we had not retested. Now that we have, and we're on zero volume, this this can correct. Mag 7 will correct. And it will be glorious. I'm very excited about the support and save at my 23% channel fib, but also, coordinates with swing low on the volume block we've made over 3 years. When that volume block saves us, oh baby the true rally on good volume can begin. Tesla has a gap on it's chart at 85 and I was like... wut? We really gonna go down there? But yeah, this will let it get down there. And there is zero chance it gets lower. Man... Wish I had more cash for June. Maybe I'll trade better on the way down.Shortby CaptainLogik0
Micro E-mini S&P 500Micro E-mini S&P 500, Supply and demand strategy, Futures, Short and Long Longby blaz860
ES/SPX Weekly Levels and Trade Plan 03/11 - 03/15Weekly Plan 03/11 - 03/15 Watch the 5120 Pivot Level Monday and especially Tuesday 03/12 (CPI Data) to see if Pivot gets rejected or taken and trade accordingly Sell Below 5120 Buy Above 5120by wasiheider0
ES1! evening updateDaily higher-high from last post completed. Green count has ES1! completing five-wave impulse off October 2023 low of 4236.25. Red count has ES1! needing one more daily higher-low and higher-high to complete what I'm interpreting as a C-wave and likely market top.by discobiscuit2
NFP ES Price Action ReviewGoing over the price action for ES NFP day. what a tough day. market is really amazing. never ceases to amaze me at its intelligence. trap move after trap move only to confirm the hot report. amazing. do your homework this weekend. replay the day. review all your trades. prepare for Monday we Go back to Battle.04:19by BobbyS8131
ES! on pressure ... big Sells start on NVDA + AVGO ES! on pressure ... big Sells start on NVDA + AVGO NQ close same as ES under TDO Trader waiting for correction Monday will show how is going . Shortby BLADERUNNER-20000
Profitaking FridayThe selling action in the S&P 500 on Friday could imply buyers taking profits before the weekend. The expected price action on Monday would be for the S&P 500 to trade inside Friday's range as the market gets ready for additional fundamentals coming out next week.02:47by DanGramza2
ES UpdateAs I posted last night, I'm bullish long term, but my short term RSI indicator appears to have gone overbought and now cycling down. The way to play this is to wait until RSI or MFI hit oversold and buy the dip. I don't think I'm buying until Thu morning, CPI and PPI coming out Tue and Thu. BTFD, lol. Threw some beer money at some puts, just goofing around right now in this whipsaw. I'll have more confidence in trading if teh indicators start cycling. by hungry_hippoUpdated 7
ES divergencyES show a huge accumulative divergence with the RSI and the MACD at daily chart, at this moment of FOMO every bearish strategy will be wrong because all the people are betting to the upside move.... Just looking out the market...by Manzanex0
3/8 Friday Trading PlanTrading Plan for Friday Market Sentiment: Neutral to Bullish Weekly Volatility Risk: High Supports to Watch: Immediate Supports: 5155 (major), 5146, 5140, 5133 (major), 5125 (major), 5118, 5113, 5106 (major), 5101, 5088-92 (major), 5084, 5073, 5065, 5057-60 (major), 5052, 5046, 5040, 5032-29 (major), 5022, 5018, 5013 (Major), 4998-5000 (major), 4994, 4987, 4983 (major), 4976, 4965-70 (major). Resistances to Monitor: Key Resistances: 5155-58 (major), 5167, 5175, 5190 (major), 5197-5200, 5209 (major), 5217, 5229-32 (major), 5243, 5254, 5262-65 (major), 5272 (major), 5282, 5287 (major), 5300 (major), 5308, 5316 (major), 5331, 5344 (major). Trading Strategy: Capital Preservation Friday: Prioritize capital protection ahead of aggressive positions. Limit risk exposure to 20% of previous gains. Cautious Longs: Focus on potential longs at 5155, 5133, 5125, and particularly 5106. Look for bounces or reclaims of support levels for long entries. NFP Volatility: Anticipate heightened volatility and potential traps in the 30 minutes following the NFP data release at 8:30 AM. Approach with caution. Bull Case: Trend Continuation: Bulls remain in control on longer time frames. A successful defense of the 5155 level and ideally, the 5133 support, would pave the way for a base-building pattern below 5170 before retesting 5190 and the macro magnet levels above. Adding on Strength: Monitor for potential bull flags above 5150 or failed breakdowns of flag supports for long entries. Bear Case: Breakdown Signals: A breakdown below 5146 may signal a move down the levels. Watch for failed breakdown setups and bounces before considering short positions. In Summary: The trend remains bullish, but increased volatility and NFP release require a cautious approach. Focus on capital preservation, targeting potential longs at key support levels. News: Top Stories for March 8, 2024 Stock Market Strength: The S&P 500 continues to reach new all-time highs. AI Stocks Drive Tech Sector: AI-focused companies, particularly Nvidia, have spurred growth in the technology sector. Federal Reserve Policy: The Fed held interest rates steady at its last meeting and plans to maintain them at current levels ahead of the March 20 meeting. Rate cut expectations are rising for later in 2024. Indian Economic Outlook: Moody's raises India's economic growth forecast to 8% for FY24, citing strong domestic demand and government spending. The Reserve Bank of India governor also anticipates GDP growth near 8%. Global Outlook: J.P. Morgan economists expect the global economy to avoid recession despite monetary tightening, but they predict an end to global expansion in mid-2025. Inflation and Currencies: US inflation, measured by the CPI, rose more than expected in January. Sterling climbed to its highest since August, bolstered by potential rate cut expectations for the ECB and Fed. Other Highlights UK-India free trade agreement faces potential delays. Crude oil prices declined slightly, and gold prices increased. Bitcoin's rally is attributed to its limited supply. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making trading decisions.by spytradingpro0
Going Over Price Action OVernight ESgoing over the ES Overnight Price Action. we're not seeing much to do as NFP will be out at 830. we are NOT fading the trend unless we get some weakness. still looking for buy setups and FBD's & FBO's. taking it mostly easy today. 02:26by BobbyS8130
Combined US indexes suggest a cotinued over-extensionThe Combined US indexes are clearly in bearish divergence, as previously described. However, it appears that there is a thin underlying technical and funding support to push this index(es) into the Fibonacci target over the next couple of weeks till the end of April. A trajectory of the expected retrace to run scenario is drawn in light yellow, to the upside target where the green ellipse is. Watch for breakdowns below supports and no recovery. Otherwise, this looks unbelievable, but it is a sucker's rally really. Tread and trade with caution... Longby Auguraltrader2
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 03.03.24 - 03.08.24Last week - we were able to consolidate inside the Edge that we broke out of and get a squeeze for another test of upper VAL and a push inside Value. We were able to reach the Mean but no continuation through it towards next Key Resistance and a sell back under end of Day. Going into this week are inside a new ranges Value and our goal is to see IF more buying comes in to try to take out Current high to test next Key Area at 5159.25 - 54.25 and try to go above it ? IF we accept here and start balancing within new current range of 5154.25 - 5112.50 or IF stronger selling comes in to takes us back under VAL back inside Previous range ? We have built up a good amount of stops inside a T2 Range at the lower Edge which took a week to build, if we start holding under 5140 - 5125 - 5112.50 that could bring in Weakness to try and take lower Stops. We would need a strong bid to take out current upper Stops and build above them to try and accept over next Key Resistance. If no strong selling comes in then we could start balancing in current range. Levels to Watch : Current Resistance 5144 - 5140.25 // Key Resistance 5159.25 - 54.25 Levels Above : 5174.25 - 5188.25 // 5188.25 - 84.50 Current Support 5129 - 25 ? Untested // Key Support 5112.50 - 07.50 Levels Below 5095.50 - 92.50 // 5081 - 77.75 Key Support 5066.50 - 60.75by HollowMnUpdated 222
Decoding Market Signals: The Head and Shoulders Pattern Good morning seasoned traders, Ever heard of the Head and Shoulders pattern? Well, depending on which study you consult, it's said to play out between 50-81% of the time. Quite the range, right? But some reliable sources swear by that impressive 81% success rate. Now, let's take a peek at the ES chart. Can you spot what I'm seeing? Yep, potentially a Head and Shoulders formation in the making. I mentioned yesterday that if we faced rejection around 5125 (and boy, did we overshoot!), we might be eyeing the 5000 level in the coming days or weeks. I get it, it's tough to wrap your head around, especially after riding the glorious bull trend for so long. But hey, consider this a cautionary sign worth keeping in your arsenal. Lately, index heavyweights have been dragging their feet, underperforming for weeks on end. And if this trend persists, well, you can guess what might happen. Remember when hedge funds bailed on Mag7 back in early Feb? Yeah, they're not rushing back just because there's a modest discount on the table. They'll hold out for a better deal. As we hover around the Value Area, dangerously close to POC, the bulls are desperately trying to salvage this trend. But let's face it, the next significant support is lurking around 4960-80. Not too far, huh? But enough to wipe out all those short and mid-term calls. Mark my words, it's never a straight line. So brace yourselves for a choppy ride over the next 5-6 days. It took nearly a week to carve out a left shoulder. Give it another 6 days for the right one, and we could be chopping till March 12th before waving the white flag. Now, I'm not saying this is our base case scenario, but hey, risk management is the name of the game. Keep that in mind as you navigate these choppy waters.Shortby Leree123Updated 0