All futures gaps fill, and I guess even a war won't keep the algos from following their rules. Strange thing is it looks like a melt up now. No position. Might take a break this week. AT this point I expect both ES and YM to fill the gap. RTY and NQ already have.
With price showing willingness to move lower, this is the current idea. Mostly for my records and review
The downtrend is still very much intact. Preliminary numbers from Friday show an -8.8k drop in open interest across all months in the ES. A sharp rally after a downtrend, coinciding with a drop in open interest, indicates a short covering rally. Buyer beware!
There was some strong buying at the recent lows that is reflected in the RSI divergence. There is a possibility of move up to 4530 level if this strength continues. However, the SP500 is also at the top it's steep downward channel and may just move south from here to the bottom of the channel. The market fundamentals are worse than when we saw the January lows so...
For 3/1 #es_f Mar * Y'day balance 4315 * ON balance 4364 * Weekly balance 4345 * Control 4314-4328 * Stop Size * 22pts Longs above 4338 target 4357 then 4368-4401 * Shorts below 4338 target 4323 then 4312-4297*
Globex inventory is short and right at our Key Support of 4327.25-4321.50. Lets break down some paths for us today. To the upside holding above our Key Level which is also currently PM support can leave us with a test of PM resistance of 4349.50-4345.25 which we need to break and stay over to see continuation to 4362.75-4359.50 and next Key Resistance at...
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it looks like ES is going to take dive the retracement Is short lived doesn't look like up
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CME_MINI:ES1! Possible Scenario: SHORT Evidence: Price Action, bearish divergence, bearish fundamentals, VIX bullish pattern, TLT rejection at resistance. TP1: 421$ TP2$: 410$ TP3: 396$ Time Period: Next two weeks before 18th March *This is my idea and could be wrong 100%
Short the ES. S&P500 for 100$. with 20$ stop. seems that the up move is too rapid to keep going and its just a strong retranchement
Just follow the trend. the we will await for the trigger to buy the Short position.
The inside day on Monday in the S&P 500 was the beginning of a wait and setting. Although the bias is to the upside, another inside the slightly higher price movement on Tuesday would make sense as the market waiting for additional information to create a directional move. Be cautious here we are not out of the woods yet to provide a clear clean directional move...
More Ukraine news during the weekend spooked the market and ES future opened sharply lower for a 130 pts pullback a few minutes after open. I was expecting marketing making lower high then more pullback in today's RTH session. However market once again proved how strong it is, it went to retest Friday high, attempted a false breakout, pulled back about 75 points...
For 2/28 #es_f Mar * Y'day balance 4275 * ON balance 4280 * Weekly balance 4302 * Control 4314-4328 * Stop Size * 38pts Longs above 4296 target 4316 then 4332-4369 * Shorts below 4296 target 4284 then 4273-4238 *
Potential Measured Move Target of 3750 if support breaks
Good morning traders, Market gapped down and took much of the move from Friday back. Since then, the market has rallied again. I don't know what to make of this, except for the market is back in the bottom of a heavily traded area. I would give the edge to the longs here, until the next headline :)