Bearish Confluences for ES1! 1. Energetic supply, lethargic demand 2. No reward for effort to the upside 3. Demand decreasing, Supply increasing 4. Price is in the Premium range of ATH 5. Quarterly profit taking is reasonable Shortby simplestupid1
10 Tools & 24 Ways To Trade ThemMany of our open source tools have gained recognition that we truly did not expect: hundreds of comments, hundreds in donations (a big thanks!) and a few Editors' Picks nominations. One particularly appreciated addition on our publications is the Practical guide section, covering ideas for using the tools in practical ways that can be applied to real world use cases. Here's our 10 most popular open source market analysis tools and 24 ways to trade them. Covering a variety of concepts from volatility, volume, open interest to market breadth. Aggregated, updated and expanded with practical examples not published before. 🛠️ Tool #1: Broad market index Broad market index is a market breadth based oscillator, depicting broad market trend by analysing ratio between symbols moving up and symbols moving down in a given market. When market breadth is positive, more symbols are going up and when negative, more symbols are going down. As markets tend to correlate, broad market trend dictates likely path for all individual symbols that make up the market. This tool provides market breadth for US equities (based on NYSE advancers - decliners) and ability to build two custom breadth baskets with up to 39 symbols included in each. Market breadth can be customized with variety of smoothing options, weighting and threshold modes to find most optimal rules for trend following. Performance of the model is reflected on metrics showing percentage of up/down moves during bullish/bearish states. 💭 Way #1: Follow broad market trend The utility of market breadth is based on the idea that markets correlate and individual symbols making up the market will eventually join the broad market trend. With this in mind, going against broad market is like swimming upstream, it's going to be the hard way. A well performing basket with clear skew for upside and downside on respective breadth states can be used to form directional bias for trades and risk on/off regimes for investing. 💭 Way #2 : Catch broad market reversals Thrusts signify two things: a historical extreme in breadth and an aggressive move to the opposite direction. Thrusts are valuable clues for exhaustion in broad market trend, potentially leading to a reversal. 💭 Way #3 : Identify unsustainable trends Market breadth and price diverging signify events where most symbols that make up the market are going one way but a few high weight symbols (big tech for SP500) are going the other way. In other words, only a few symbols are moving the market while general interest and intention is to the other direction. Divergences in breadth and price are not ideal for sustainable trend and can be expected to eventually revert to the direction of broad market. 🛠️ Tool #2: Volume composition Volume composition breaks down the content of volume, allowing a more detailed look inside each volume node. In this tool, volume types are divided into buy and sell volume and further broken down to active (rising) and passive (falling) volume. Volume types are visually classified as follows: Total volume (buy and sell). By default gray node. Dominating volume (buy or sell). By default dark green/dark red node. Dominating active volume (buy or sell). By default light green/light red node. Dominating volume as percentage of total volume. Dominating active volume as percentage of total active volume. 💭 Way #4 : Identify areas of trapped market participants Often when volume spikes distinctively, we can make the case that price has found sufficient liquidity to halt/turn. Since we know which side was absorbed, in what quantity and type (passive/active), we can identify areas of trapped market participants. In such scenarios, the higher the dominant active volume and volume spike itself, the better. 💭 Way #5 : Identify a healthy trend A healthy trend is one that has an active and consistent bid driving it. When this is the case, it can be seen in consistently supportive active volume. 💭 Way #6 : Identify inflection points, prepare for expansion When dominant side of volume and dominant side of active volume diverge, something is up. A divergence often marks an area of indecision, hinting an imminent move one way or the other. 🛠️ Tool #3: Fair value bands Fair value bands depict dynamic points in price where price behaviour is normal or abnormal, i.e. trading at/around mean (price at fair value) or deviating from mean (price outside fair value). Unlike constantly readjusting standard deviation based bands, fair value bands are designed to be smooth and constant, based on typical historical deviations. The script calculates pivots that take place above/below fair value basis and forms median deviation bands based on this information. These points are then multiplied up to 3, representing more extreme deviations. 💭 Way #7 : Risk on at fair value, risk off outside fair value Ideal trend stays inside fair value and provides sufficient cool offs between the moves. When this is the case, fair value bands can be used for sensible entry/exit levels within the trend. 💭 Way #8 : Catch reversals at extremes When price shows exuberance into an extreme deviation, followed by a stall and signs of exhaustion (wicks), an opportunity for mean reversion emerges. The higher the deviation, the more volatility in the move, the more signalling of exhaustion, the better. 💭 Way #9 : Customize the bands to suit your needs The faster the length of fair value basis, the more momentum price needs to hit extreme deviation levels, as bands too are moving faster alongside price. Decreasing fair value basis length typically leads to more quick and aggressive deviations and less steady trends outside fair value. 🛠️ Tool #4: Time & volume point of control Time & volume point of control detects key points of control found on market profile indicators. Time & volume POC's are points in price where highest amount of time/volume was traded. This is considered key information in a market profile, as it shows where market participant interest was highest. Unlike full fledged market profile that shows total time/volume distribution, this script shows the points of control for each candle, plotted with a line (time) and a dot (volume) 💭 Way #10 : Identify trapped market participants One or both points of control at one end of candle range (wick tail) and candle close at the other end serves as an indication of market participants trapped in an awkward position. When price runs away further from these trapped participants, they are eventually forced to cover and drive price even further to the opposite direction: 💭 Way #11 : Identify trend initiation A large move that leaves TPOC behind while VPOC is supportive serves as an indication of a trend initiation. Essentially, this is one way to identify an event where price traded sideways most of the time and suddenly moved away with volume: 💭 Way #12 : Identify a strong trend supported by POC A trend is healthy when it's supported by a point of control. Ideally you want to see either time or volume supporting a trend: 🛠️ Tool #5: Session candles & reversals Session based candles are a visualization of open, high, low and close values, but based on session time periods instead of typical timeframes such as daily or weekly. Session candles are formed by fetching price at session start (open), highest price during session (high), lowest price during session (low) and price at session end (close). On top of candles, session based moving average is formed and session reversals detected. Session reversals are also backtested, using win rate and magnitude metrics to better understand what to expect from session reversals and which ones have historically performed the best. 💭 Way #13 : Focus efforts on session reversals at distinct support/resistance levels A reversal against a level holds more value than a reversal by itself, as you know it's a placement where liquidity can be expected. A reversal serves as a confirming reaction for this expectation. 💭 Way #14 : Focus efforts on highest performing reversals, avoid poorly performing ones As you have data backed evidence of session reversal performance, it makes sense to focus your efforts on the ones that perform best. If some session reversal is clearly performing poorly, you would want to avoid it, since there's nothing backing up its validity. 💭 Way #15 : Identify session reversals reliably Two is better than one, three is better than two and so on. If there are rapid changes in direction within multiple sessions consecutively, there's heavier evidence of a dynamic shift in price. In such case, it makes sense to hold more confidence in price halting/turning. 🛠️ Tool #6: : Open interest flow Open interest flow detects inflows (positions opening) and outflows (positions closing) using open interest and estimates delta (net buyers/sellers) for the flows. Users are able to choose any open interest source available on Tradingview, by default set to BTCUSDT OI fetched from Binance. Using historical open interest flows, bands depicting typical magnitude of flows are formed for benchmarking intensity of flows. On the inflow side, +1 represents average inflows while +2 represents 2x above average inflows, a level considered an extreme. In a vice versa manner, -1 represents average outflows while -2 represents 2x above average outflows. Extreme inflows indicate aggressive position opening, in other words exuberance. Extreme outflows on the other hand indicate forced exiting of positions, in other words liquidations. 💭 Way #16 : Identify greed/fear by gauging inflows/outflows Open interest as a standalone data point does not reveal which side is likely opening/exiting positions and how extreme the participant behavior is. Using the additional data provided by open interest flows, moments of greed and fear can be detected. Smart money does not short into dips and buy into rips. When buyers or sellers have participated in a large move and continue to show interest even when efforts are not rewarded at an already overextended price, participants are asking for trouble. 💭 Way #17: Identify liquidations Similar events can be observed when extreme outflows take place, indicating forced exits such as stop-losses triggering. When enough participants are forced out, price is likely to take the path of least resistance which is to the opposite direction. 🛠️ Tool #7 : Volatility patterns Volatility patterns detect various forms of indecisive price action, on a larger scale as a compressed range and on a smaller scale as indecision candles. Indecisive and volatility suppressing price action can be thought of as a spring being pressed down. The more suppression, the more tension is built and eventually released as a spike or series of spikes in volatility. Each volatility pattern is assigned an influence period, during which average and peak relative volatility is recorded and stored to volatility metrics. 💭 Way #18 : Navigate volatility Volatility is not a bad thing from a trading perspective, but can actually be fertile ground for executing trade setups. Trading volatility influence periods from higher timeframes on lower timeframes gives greater resolution to work with and opportunities to take advantage of the wild swings created. 💭 Way #19 : Find bias for volatility patterns Points of confluence where it anyway makes sense to favor one side over the other can be used for establishing bias for indecisive price action as well. At face value, it makes sense to expect bearish reactions at range highs and bullish reactions at range low, for which volatility patterns can provide a catalyst. 💭 Way #20 : Bet on initiation Betting on direction of the first volatile move can easily go against you, but if risk/reward is able to compensate for the poor win rate, it's a valid idea to consider and explore. 🛠️ Tool #8 : Bar metrics Rather than eyeball evaluating bullishness/bearishness in any given bar, bar metrics allow a quantified approach using three basic fundamental data points: relative close, relative volatility and relative volume. These data points are visualized in a discreet data dashboard form, next to all real-time bars. Each value also has a dot in front, representing color coded extremes in the values. Relative close represents position of bar's close relative to high and low, high of bar being 100% and low of bar being 0%. Relative close indicates strength of bulls/bears in a given bar, the higher the better for bulls, the lower the better for bears. Relative volatility (bar range, high - low) and relative volume are presented in a form of a multiplier, relative to their respective moving averages (SMA 20). A value of 1x indicates volume/volatility being on par with moving average, 2x indicates volume/volatility being twice as much as moving average and so on. Relative volume and volatility can be used for measuring general market participant interest, the "weight of the bar" as it were. 💭 Way #21 : Identify bullish/bearish impulses By configuring bar metrics to highlight exuberant bullish bars (high volume/volatility and close at highs), we can identify bullish impulses in a simple, yet effective way. Impulsive moves can mark either initiation (price likely to continue in the initiated direction) or exhaustion (price likely to reverse) Same impulses can be identified for the downside by simply creating a close at lows condition. 🛠️ Tool #9 : Global & local RSI As the terms global and local imply, global RSI describes broad relative strength, whereas local RSI describes local relative strength within the broad moves. A macro and micro view of relative strength so to speak. Global and local RSI are simply regular RSI and stochastic RSI. Local RSI extremes ( stochastic RSI oversold/overbought) often mark a pivot in RSI which naturally reflects to price. Local RSI extremes are visualized inside the global RSI bands (upper band for overbought, lower band for oversold) in a "heat map" style. 💭 Way #22 : Identify local extremes in RSI As an oscillator, RSI depicts extreme when above or below extreme values (above 70, below 30) but that does not mean RSI is not at an extreme in between. The benefit of having a stochastic RSI extremes on the side (visualized using heatmap color on upper and lower bands) is being able to identify local extremes in the broader moves. 💭 Way #23 : Identify hidden reversals RSI visualized in candles has a special quality: hidden reversals. Hidden reversals are candles with a wick-ish shape in relative strength, which are not always seen on the main chart itself. 🛠️ Tool #10 : Auto-magnifier Auto-magnifier shows a lower timeframe view of candles and volume bars inside any main timeframe candle by zooming into it. Candles and volume bars as they develop are shown chronologically from left to right. By default, magnifier is triggered when less than 3 candles are visible on the chart. By default, 20 lower timeframe candles are displayed by splitting main timeframe into 20 parts. The amount of candles displayed is a target rate, meaning the script will use a lower timeframe that has the closest match to 20 candles and therefore will vary a bit. Users can override automatic timeframe calculation and opt in to display any specific lower timeframe or adjust amount of candles shown (e.g. 20 -> 30 candles) per each main timeframe candle. 💭 Way #24 : Navigate lower timeframe resistance/support Auto-magnifier gives a quick and easy access to a lower timeframe view of any main timeframe candle. With greater resolution, more distinct support/and resistance levels can be spotted by looking for a re-test of points of interest (preferably with signs of exhaustion as well) Educationby quantifytools16
the eye of solominya well dressed chart ... go forth and replicate a well dressed chart ... go forth and replicate a well dressed chart ... go forth and replicate a well dressed chart ... go forth and replicateby recipeater0
Trading Plan for Monday, March 18th, 2024Trading Plan for Monday, March 18th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Cautious, watching key support levels Weekly Volatility Risk: High Supports to Watch: Immediate Supports: 5171-73 (major), 5167, 5162, 5152-55 (major), 5147, 5136, 5127 (major), 5115 (major), 5109, 5104, 5092 (major), 5083 (major). Resistances to Monitor: Key Resistances: 5181, 5191, 5202 (major), 5207, 5213 (major), 5220-24 (major), 5230, 5236, 5246-51 (major), 5260, 5267 (major), 5280, 5285, 5294 (major), 5300, 5304 (major), 5315, 5320-22 (major), 5332, 5340, 5345, 5354-57 (major) Trading Strategy: Pivot Point: The 5171-73 support (white trendline) is crucial. A potential bounce is possible, but exercise caution as significant selling pressure could develop if this level fails. Long Opportunities: Look for buying opportunities on a bounce or reclaim of 5171-73. The 5152-55 major support is the last line of defense for bulls. Avoid aggressive longs below that level. Look for entries around 5115 or 5127 only if they show strong signs of a rebound. Short Opportunities (For experienced traders): Watch for short entries on failed breakdowns or bounces off resistance. Knife Catching Caution: Avoid impulsive buys deep into red candles on violent sell-offs. Treat them as short-term, smaller position trades. Bull Case Support Defense: Bulls need to hold the 5171-73 trendline, with ideally no further tests. A bounce here, particularly if it extends to the 5152-55 zone, provides a low-risk entry for a move back towards resistance at 5202/5207. Building a Base: Overnight basing below 5191 and above the 5170s support suggests potential upside for a move to 5202/5207. Path to New Highs: A successful defense of the trendline and subsequent move through resistance zones could lead to fresh all-time highs. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: Breakdown below 5171 could trigger significant selling pressure. Watch for shorting opportunities on failed breakdowns or bounces. Exercise patience here as breakdowns are often tricky and require skilled execution. Cascading Sell-off: If the 5152-55 major support fails, a deeper, more severe correction is possible. News: Top Stories for March 18th, 2024 Taiwan's Defense Strategy: Taiwan weighs investing in smaller, cheaper weaponry to counter potential invasion threats from China. Goldman Sachs Departure: The exit of a senior executive at Goldman Sachs signals potential internal shifts within the company. Middle East Conflict: Israel's raid on a hospital in Gaza risks escalating tensions in the region. Retail Challenges: Joann's bankruptcy highlights the ongoing difficulties faced by traditional retailers in the current consumer landscape. European Defense Stocks: The value of European defense stocks is fluctuating based on political rhetoric and policy shifts. FedEx-Amazon Partnership: Possible collaboration under discussion could reshape logistics and e-commerce dynamics. Fed Policy Outlook: The Federal Reserve's latest report highlights potential vulnerabilities due to leverage and high stock valuations. No rate cuts are expected until the Fed is confident inflation is under control. Bank Regulation Debate: A year after financial instability, regulators prepare new rules while facing industry criticism. Labor Market Update: Continued strength in the US job market puts factors into play the Fed will consider in its interest rate decisions. Inflation and Consumer Spending: The paradox of resilient consumer spending despite high inflation is a key focus of economists and policymakers. Additional Factors: Keep an eye on Nvidia's GTC Conference, updates on Indian markets, scrutiny of Adani Group, and shifts in startup financing trends. Remember: Prioritize capital preservation during this time of uncertainty. Be prepared for potential volatility and adapt your trading strategy accordingly.by spytradingpro0
Range VPOC Holds As SupportThe index gaps higher this morning following Friday's test of the intermediate-term range VPOC. Late bears discovering what "Don't short in the hole" means. by OpinicusTrades0
ES Weekly Levels (Mar18-22)The market closed red for the second week in a row as traders took profits on persistant inflation and fears that the Fed may not cut as soon as expected. Mag 7 stock weakened and ADBE dropped 13% on Friday. The Russel fell by 2% and OIL stengthened. This week the market look ahead to the FOMC rate decision on Wed. SUMMARY ES had a weekly loss of 0.25% after trading in a wide range of 141 pts. ES closed red for the second week in a row. R1 = LTF 1.618 Fib X (5211) R2 = 9 ema (5196) S1 = 21 ema (5160) S2 = May 5th Low (5126) Bias remains long but choppiness at ATH increases odds of a near term pull back. Break below upward trendline would signal potential trend change. Potential risk-off and inflationary shift as XLP, XLE & XLB are showing near term strength. Mag 7 are showing weakness. ADBE dropped 13% on Friday FOMC rate decision on Wed Inflation remains persistant. XLE up 3.84 % last week. Growth and small caps still under pressure. RSI 47.52 | VIX at 14.42 | 10 year 4.31% by WadeYendall111
$spx on way to build 4th parabolic base since 1929we are leaving the 4th parabolic base of the post 2009 rally... that epxect blow off top from that rally, is expected to create a consolidation forming the 4th parabolic base of the post 1929 rally... after the 5th parabolic base is consumated, we expect a 70/80% crash...Longby LotusTrading20223
Distribution Schematic on ES + NQIn both indices we see increased demand with no achievement. This may be due to supply being not introduced back to the market, for a possible short selling later on. In Wyckoffian terms the composite operator is collecting contracts from the weak hands to distribute them collectively. Shortby simplestupid2
ES1! evening updateBullish count (in green) would have us working on a wave 4 down towards the 5000 level. Bearish count would have us either working on one final five wave impulse up or a truncated finish (top is in) and dramatic move downward. Key support is 5157.by discobiscuit1
Have Not Closed BelowThis level since November 2023. I have been waiting for the break as it should be the first sign of what comes next. This is a backwards adjusted chart, however, it is likely confirming the market high from last Friday. A close below this level today should began the clock on the prior analyses attached to this ideaShortby StockSignaler1
ES UpdateRut row, bottom channel broke and it looks like RSI is gonna go oversold. Still more room to teh downside before that happens. Cashed out my PCAR stock for a nice gain, better lucky than good, I guess. Made so much money off that stock though...by hungry_hippoUpdated 6
ES UpdateMFI hit oversold as predicted, same with NQ. RTY is a bit interesting, RSI hit oversold but MFI didn't. Not sure which way the market gaps tomorrow, but it is Ponzi Friday, and it looks like the market wants to pump going into the Fed meeting because Powell told Congress last week that he's cutting rates. It's the Village Idiot rally, lol.by hungry_hippoUpdated 448
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 03.10 - 03.15 Last Week : Last week market opened inside Value, first cleared upper stops then got a nice sell from 5154.25 - 59.25 Key Resistance area back down to VAL, cleared that Support and got continuation back inside lower Edge taking all the lower stops except the pinata stops at Key Edge Support of 5066.50 - 60.75. Lower Edge ended up holding and we got a push back inside Value where we pretty much spent Friday. We did make a push above VAH which was met with selling and we ended up closing back inside Value. I have rolled my contract so Friday was trading new contract which opened up at the above Edge, made a push to next VAL and as mentioned that was a good target for that day as we can see profit taking in those above areas going into the weekend which gave a nice sell back under the Edge towards VAH. This Week : This week can be tricky to try and guess for multiple reasons, it's Opex week, we are going through contract roll, we are around KEY HTF Area and of course plenty of data dropping as well. But at least we can have a what IF game plan to go into it and see how the week develops. Usually if you see a Failure over HTF Edge like we had on new contract Friday that could bring in weakness and give a move back down to previous ranges VAH / Mean / VAL and Lower Edge, which we could get BUT because old contract closed inside Value, new contract is currently inside this 5150 - 5250 potential balance area over VAH and higher time frames like 4hr / Daily are not showing trend change just yet which tells us we have to be careful forcing for that as market may hold and let things catch up while we digest another big move without giving that bigger sell that everyone keeps expecting. I will be taking this week level to level range by range unless it shows bigger moves are ready to happen which you could continue catching level to level anyway. New contract is currently inside 5199.75 - 5159.25 Range, we have trapped Supply over the Edge which could keep us under for time being but also failed to get inside or tag VAH from above on Friday which is telling us that there is buying which could give holds over and maybe smaller ranges again ? To see upside from here we would need to take out Current Key Resistance at 5204.25 - 5199.75 and for any continuation above we would have to get through Edge top as our Supply is above. Current Support will be our VAH top at 5188.25 - 84.50 - 82.50 area which we would need to get through to try and make a push back inside Value towards the mean. This 5204.25 - 5199.75 could act as temporary mean and we can see balancing around this Edge/VAH area until market will be ready to move again. Levels to Watch : Current Key Resistance 5207.50 5204.25 - 5199.75 Targets above 5219.75 - 15.75 // Would need to accept above to attempt a move past 5227 into 5234.25 - 30.25 Next Key Resistance 5249.75 - 5244.75 need to get over for attempt at new Value. Current Intrarange Support 5188.25 - 84.50 Targets below 5174.25 - 5170.50 // Key Support for anything lower 5159.25 - 54.25 IF Stronger sell volume does come in we can watch for continuation towards VAL. by HollowMnUpdated 1
Trading Plan for Friday, March 15th, 2024Trading Plan for Friday, March 15th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Cautious on OPEX Friday Weekly Volatility Risk: High (amplified by OPEX) Supports to Watch: Immediate Supports: 5213 (major), 5207, 5200 (major), 5196, 5192 (major), 5181, 5176, 5165 (major), 5160, 5152, 5146 (major), 5141, 5136, 5126, 5119, 5109-11 (major), 5102, 5091 (major), 5086-88 (major). Resistances to Monitor: Key Resistances: 5221 (major), 5229-32 (major), 5236, 5240, 5246, 5251 (major), 5257, 5264, 5269, 5278, 5287 (major), 5294-96 (major), 5308, 5315 (major), 5326, 5337, 5343 (major), 5352 (major), 5362, 5375-80 (major) Trading Strategy: OPEX Caution OPEX Volatility: Expect potential chop and poor follow-through due to options expiration dynamics. Exercise increased caution and prioritize capital preservation. Limited Positions: Reduce position sizes or consider sitting out the majority of the day. Avoid impulsive overtrading. Watch Out for Chop: The zone between 5192 and 5230 is particularly messy. Trade with extreme care within this range. Support Focus: Watch 5213 and 5200 for potential bounce plays, however, these zones are heavily used up and may not offer reliable setups. Long Opportunity: Look for longs around 5192 (the last major support before a steeper sell-off). Avoid longs below 5165. Bull Case OPEX Range: Expect a potential ugly range trade between 5192 (lowest support) and 5230. A successful defense of supports would set up a breakout towards 5251 and further toward the 5290s. Overnight Strength: If overnight trading shows basing below 5220, consider potential upside towards the next resistance level. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: Breakdown below 5191 could trigger selling pressure. Watch for shorting opportunities on failed breakdowns or bounces, ideally after a test of 5191. News: Top Stories for March 15th, 2024 Stock Market Rally: The S&P 500 continues its upward momentum, driven by strong fundamentals, earnings growth, particularly in the tech sector (AI stocks), and investor optimism for a Fed soft landing. Interest Rate Outlook: The Federal Reserve maintains its current interest rate policy but signals potential rate cuts later in the year. Mixed Economic Data: Economic indicators show both strength and pockets of weakness. GDP growth remains impressive, while inflation data suggests challenges in the Fed's fight to control prices. Banking Regulations: One year after bank run concerns, regulators prepare new rules to mitigate future financial instability. Corporate Debt Concerns: Corporate defaults rise, highlighting the strain of inflation and high interest rates on riskier borrowers. Private Equity Expansion: Private equity giants expand into consumer debt markets, potentially impacting household financial health. Inflation Updates: The CPI and Core CPI remain critical for understanding inflation trends and potential Federal Reserve rate changes. Global Risks: Monitor ongoing geopolitical tensions, climate risks, technological disruption, and election-related uncertainties for impacts on global markets. CFO Trends: Focus on digital transformation, strategic planning with AI/automation, and balanced growth strategies. Energy Transition: Challenges in the transition to net-zero energy become evident as major players face hurdles. Remember: Options Expiration (OPEX) can cause unpredictable market behavior. Trade with reduced risk, prioritize capital preservation, and be prepared for rapid shifts in direction. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Consult a professional financial advisor for trading decisions.by spytradingpro1
ES UpdateWell there's the pump and dump with the Thu dip I predicted earlier this week. Probably melts back up when MI hits oversold. Gonna wait until MFI goes oversold, maybe a small long play EOD for Ponzi Fridayby hungry_hippo7
Trading Plan for Thursday, March 14th, 2024Trading Plan for Thursday, March 14th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Cautious, watching for breakout direction Weekly Volatility Risk: High Supports to Watch: Immediate Supports: 5230-28 (major), 5220, 5213, 5202-07 (major), 5191, 5180-83 (major), 5167, 5162, 5156 (major), 5148, 5144, 5136, 5126 (major), 5115, 5108, 5103, 5088-91 (major), 5083 (major), 5076, 5071, 5067 (major), 5060, 5053, 5048 (major). Resistances to Monitor: Key Resistances: 5235, 5245 (major), 5257 (major), 5265, 5280 (major), 5287-90 (major), 5300, 5306, 5314, 5327, 5335 (major), 5340, 5346 (major), 5354, 5363-65 (major), 5374 (major), 5380, 5391 (major) Trading Strategy: Consolidation Zone: Price action between 5230 and 5245 indicates a new consolidation range. Exercise caution with overtrading within this range. Look for breakouts or breakdowns for clearer directional cues. Support Focus: Watch for potential long opportunities at 5230-28 (after a dip and reclaim) and 5220 (if today's low holds and reclaims). For aggressive traders, major supports like 5202, 5183, and 5156 offer potential bounce areas for catching points on a larger sell-off. Counter-trend Caution: (For experienced traders): Shorting green candles is risky. If a breakout above 5245 occurs, watch for short entries around the 5280-90 zone. Patience is Key: Prioritize capital preservation and wait for high-conviction setups. Bull Case: Flag Structure: Current price action could be forming a bull flag. Defending 5230 and 5220 supports keeps this scenario alive, targeting a potential breakout towards 5257, 5265, 5280, and the 5287-90 zone. Adding within Flags: Monitor for reclaims of 5235, indicating strength within the consolidation with the potential for another test of 5245. Bear Case: Breakdown Signals: Breakdown below 5220 could trigger selling pressure. Watch for shorting opportunities on failed breakdowns or bounces, ideally after a test of 5220. News: Top Stories for March 14th, 2024 U.S.-China Deal: The quiet extension of a bilateral agreement between the U.S. and China underscores ongoing complex diplomatic and trade relations. Chip Manufacturing Contrasts: Delays in a U.S. chip plant contrasted with Japan's on-schedule progress highlight the challenges and global dynamics in the semiconductor industry. Gaza Economic Crisis: Surging inflation in Gaza puts further strain on residents, particularly due to the dramatic price increase for essential goods. Immigration Impact: Post-pandemic urban growth in the U.S. is significantly driven by immigration, reshaping demographics and economic landscapes. TikTok Scrutiny: The U.S. House of Representatives takes a step towards potentially banning or forcing the sale of TikTok, citing national security concerns. Retail Landscape: Family Dollar's planned closures signal changes in the retail sector due to shifting consumer behavior. Labor Market Update: The robust U.S. job market adds 275K positions, a factor as the Fed weighs interest rate decisions. Additional Factors: Keep an eye on the upcoming PPI data, oil market dynamics, and Robinhood's surging trading volume for potential market implications.by spytradingpro0
ES Potentialy ShortThe market saw a large pullback in many recent equities this last Friday including companies like nVidia. I cant say that the chart looking bearish, we are still making some higher highs. Ive done some research to learn some shareholders are likely starting to take profits on stocks that had large rallies. But most importantly, it seems like we have some unfinished business down below where price attempted to test the low, but was just a few points away from doing so, front running the level. Looking for a small dip towards the support zone, and potentially lower if we flip the demand zones in supply. Lets see! Shortby afurs1Updated 2
ES Weekly Levels (Mar11-15)Markets closed the week with a dip as record highs gave way to profit-taking. Chip stocks, including Nvidia, faced reversals, impacting the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. Despite a strong job growth report, rising unemployment and slowed wage growth tempered the market's enthusiasm. NVDA closed 10.14% off it's ATH and Costco's 7.6% drop signaled cautious consumer spending. NQ finished the week -1.44%, ES -0.11% and MYM -0.76%. XLY & XLK finished the week red, while defensive XLP & XLU closed green. This week earnings season will con't to wind down and the focus will shift to CPI & PPI data for the lates clues about potential rate cuts. SUMMARY ES had a weekly of 0.11% after trading in a wide range of 131 pts. ES made another ATH high but pulled back 1.10% on Friday. R1 = LTF 1.618 Fib X (5212) R2 = ATH (5257) S1 = 9 ema (5178) S2 = 21 ema (5133) Bias will remain long unless new information is presented or until the upward trendline is broken. Limited resistance levels above make large whole number very important. Potential risk-off shift for stocks last week. XLK & XLY down. XLU, XLP & XLRE up. NVDA dropped 10% from ATH. COST dropped 7% after earnings. Econ data this week includes CPI on Tuesday & PPI on Thursday. Watch for small cap growth to finally take off. RSI 62.25 | VIX at 14.75 | 10 year 4.25% by WadeYendallUpdated 5
3/13 Wednesday Trading PlanTrading Plan for Wednesday, March 13th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Neutral to Bullish Weekly Volatility Risk: High Supports to Watch: Immediate Supports: 5235, 5230, 5221 (major), 5214, 5207 (major), 5202, 5196, 5191 (major), 5181, 5175 (major), 5167, 5162, 5155 (major), 5148 (major), 5137 (major), 5125, 5115 (major), 5109, 5103, 5097, 5090 (major), 5082, 5077-80 (major), 5070, 5060 (Major), 5056, 5045-47 (major), 5038, 5026, 5018-20 (major), 5012, 5000 (major), 4990, 4982 (major). Resistances to Monitor: Key Resistances: 5242 (major), 5254, 5257, 5274-78 (major), 5283, 5290 (major), 5297, 5309, 5315, 5326 (major), 5331, 5341, 5345, 5355 (major), 5366 (major). Trading Strategy: Post Trend-Leg Caution: After the significant rally, short-term setups are less clear. Exercise caution with both longs (chasing, rug pull risk) and shorts (against the dominant trend). Let price discovery unfold before forcing trades. Support Focus: Watch for potential long opportunities at 5235, 5221, and particularly 5207. Look for reclaims or failed breakdown setups for stronger entries. Short Opportunities (For experienced traders): Consider shorts on confirmed breakdowns below 5207 or bounces off the 5274-78, and 5290 resistance areas. Patience is Key: Prioritize capital preservation and wait for high-conviction entries. Bull Case: Trend Continuation: The overall bull trend remains strong. Defending 5220 and 5207 supports paves the way towards new highs at 5254, 5274-78, and the 5290 macro magnet. Adding within Flags: Monitor for potential bull flags overnight between 5242 and 5230. Consider adding positions within a well-formed flag if a major new high is not made. Bear Case: Breakdown Signals: Breakdown below 5207 could trigger selling pressure. Watch for shorting opportunities on failed breakdowns, ideally after a bounce. News: Top Stories for March 13th, 2024 Economic Outlook: Despite President Biden's cautious economic forecasts in November, recent progress suggests a stronger outlook. Economists are predicting faster growth, lower inflation, and continued job creation. Housing Initiatives: President Biden's proposed initiatives to reduce housing costs aim to ease affordability challenges caused by inflation and high-interest rates. Cryptocurrency Trends: Meme coins are surging, while electric vehicle stocks see mixed analyst opinions highlighting the volatility of these sectors. Gold's Safe Haven: Amid geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty, the record-high gold price reflects its appeal as a safe-haven investment. Interest Rate Debate: Speculation continues around the timing of potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making trading decisions.by spytradingpro0
Long at retest of breakout pointAmazing how retests work even on data driven volatile days like today Entry at the retest (purple arrow) yielded great resultsLongby NCHammer110
S&P 500: Turn around! 🔄After the S&P was able to close the price gap of the previous trading week, bullish pressure pushed the index up again. We have drawn a clear demarcation between our two scenarios with the resistance at 5254 points. Primarily, we categorize the magenta wave (1) as finished. The current wave (2) correction should come to an end in our magenta Target Zone (coordinates: 4635 – 4340 points). If, on the other hand, the index surpasses the resistance level at 5254 points, the internal wave Alt.5 in turquoise as well as the superordinate magenta wave Alt.(1) will reach a higher level again. We assign a probability of 30% to this alternative scenario. Shortby MarketIntel0