ES pre Fed meeting minutes updateMFI overbought before Fed meeting minutes get released here in a few minutes....
I'm staying out. Movements are so small not everything is moving with the market. Too much guess work.
MESZ2020 trade ideas
Failed break of IB looking for short entry on confirmation. Failed break of IB looking for short entry on confirmation.
$1.75 points
Profit: $87.50
Should of held trade longer. Earlier sideways action caused early exit.
Bullish outlook on S&P 500, ESM2024, first intraday target 5375We expect further bullish prices in the S&P 500, ESM 2024. After the FOMC Meeting Minutes, yesterday, the daily candle closed bearish, but above 5315, which indicates further bullish prices on the daily. We will be therefore looking for bullish tradesetups today and further until proven otherwise.
However, we will have to see if good setups form, since price gaped at todays opening and has already moved a lot overnight, before market opening at 9:30 new york time.
We will therfore see if we get some discount to enter first. We are not trying to chase price intraday, entering in a premium.
For a first intraday target we are looking for 5375 and potentially higher.
This is no financial advice, do not risk real money on the analysis shared by us!
The end is nigh..."one more high."This is an Ending Diagonal. Notice, it is a contracting ED, and incidentally, the intersection of its top and bottom trend lines provide an ideal end point. A little bird told me 5375 was ripe for selling, and this picture makes me confident he was right. ATH 5362.75 at the time of this post, but calling it, anyway, as late as 5375.75. If not today, maybe in the week.
Best, Cuz
further price reductionIt seems that due to the maintenance of conditions by the Federal Reserve, the possibility of further price reduction is possible
ES short levelWE have a lot of confluences that we will go lower! ADR + M15 SIBI (Sellside Imbalance Buyside Inefficiency) + Range Deviations!!
S&P 500 (ESM2024)... BULLISH BIAS!Bias is Bullish.
Price swept the External LQ, then went
for the Internal LQ.
Price swept the old high, but didn't
displace through it. With the formation
of a +FVG, and price pulling back to tag
it Friday, we may see price trade
through the new high.
Ideally, price will form FVGs to give us
clear indications as to its intentions.
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ESM2024 gravitating towards ATH!Look at that beautiful 1/3 ADR at ATH + Previous Week High that is good confluence for us going higher! Also Range +4 STDV there this looks very solid to me! Range deviations + Average Range Levels = 🔥
ES - Market Maker Buy Model (MMBM)On Friday ES did beautiful retracement with SMT at Smart Money Reversal with YM. A lot of confluences much as seasonality, orderflow and structure.
202421 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - sp500 overall market comment
This week we found out how high the squeeze could get and markets made new all time highs. PPI was bad but market rallied anyway and bears gave up on CPI numbers. We are at the highs where we saw a bigger sell-off in April and it’s more reasonable to look for shorting the double tops, than betting on another melt-up for the biggest asset bubble in market history. If you don’t agree, it’s fine. I post enough links to support that thesis but you have to make up your own mind.
My broader market view has not changed in the last weeks. I was early, yes but markets are forming tops and they always return to more reasonable valuation levels. Since we are at levels where you can’t find any metric that supports higher prices, I will only look for shorts for longer term trades. Does that mean the tops are in and we trade down from here on? Absolutely not. Markets can be irrational much longer than you can stay solvent. I will happily scalp long when markets move higher again.
current market drivers (non price action part of my publication)
second wave of inflation: PPI surprised upwards, commodities on a tear again (except oil for now) and CPI came in line. Market used everything as an excuse to squeeze shorts more and print new ath’s. Soon bad news will get interpreted as bad news again, since markets will trade lower instead of higher, before and after releases.
rate-cuts: No new opinion on this one. Your guess is as good as anyone’s. If you can name 2-3 highly respected finance people, who say inflation is defeated and we will see many rate cuts, please share them with me. I’m always curious of other opinions and try to see what they see.
job market: My assumption is that over the next 4-8 weeks we will see a further decline on job metrics. For now no updates.
sp500 e-mini futures
Quote from last week:
bull case: 7 consecutive bull bars on the daily tf is as bullish as it gets. We are still in a lower high but clearly on our way to make new ones. We are right below the 2024-03 high, which was also resistance in early 2024-04. Bulls want the market to move sideways here and poke enough at 5260 until bears give up and we see the melt-up to 5333 and probably higher. The big green bull trend line is an obvious magnet as well as the big round number 5400 or even 5500. As long as bears don’t print big bear bars on the daily chart and drop the market below 5200, bulls are in full control. Next target for bulls is 5300 and if we have enough momentum, we can print 5333 again.
comment: Very climactic rally and a pull-back is in order. We will probably retest the ath early next week and if bear’s do not step in, we could also just melt above 5350 for much higher prices. The depth of the pull-back (if it happens) will determine if we get another leg up or a bigger second leg down like the 370 point correction in April. Monday will be very interesting since opex is over and this rally looks, swims and quacks like short squeeze.
current market cycle: trading range until new ath or drop below 5000 or breaks above 5350
key levels: 5000 - 5350
bull case: Bulls have every argument on their side for printing higher prices. Bears created 1 bear bar in 11 days and Friday closed 1 point below the daily high. That is as clear of a buy signal as it can get. At the minimum they want to retest 5349 but if bears step aside enough, we will melt right through for much higher prices. As of right now, the weekly chart printed an obvious double top but to confirm that, bears would need a strong sell-off next week. If bears will not get it, the big bull trend line pointing to 5450-5500 is the next magnet.
Invalid below 5300.
bear case: Bears see this as a climactic rally to retest the ath and want to sell-off now as we did the last time in late March. Market is trading very far above the daily 20ema and a 300 point gain without much of a pull-back, it’s overdue. Does that mean this was the top? No. It can go longer but talking probability-wise, a smaller second leg sideways to down is due. We had 3 clear pushes up with only very small side-ways corrections and this is climactic and unsustainable market behavior.
outlook last week: “Pull-back should happen but longs are favored until bears make lower lows and break the 1h 20ema. I updated my daily chart but it’s only a very rough guess. Inflation prints will dominate the markets this week and I will give daily updates.”
→ Last Sunday we traded 5246 and now we are at 5349. Pull-back was very weak and even then the day printed green. Bulls wanted the new ath and they got it after CPI numbers were in line. My W4 was a bit too deep but W5 was spot on, so I hope you made some.
short term: Slightly bearish - Retest of ath or 5330 expected before we should see more sideways to down price action. If bears are reasonably strong, we should see 5260 or 5200. Invalid above 5350 with follow through.
medium-long term: Trading Range until 5000 is clearly broken and has turned resistance. If bulls can break strongly above 5350, it’s obviously a continuation of the bull trend and my next target would be 5500.
current swing trade: Waiting for bears to show up since I’m only looking for longer term shorts up here.
Chart update: Bullish targets are met and some correction is overdue.
ES UpdateHeh, slept in today
Anyways, MFI headed to oversold and all we get is a small dip. Chart seems to be pointing at going long on Monday, so I'll wait until Monday.
ES Daily UpdateAt this point you gotta figure the daily is gonna go overbought before this stupidity ends, lol.
My 3hr indicators should go oversold Monday, guess I gotta go long.
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 5.19 - 5.24Last Week :
Last week Market opened under the VAL of this 5368 - 5207 HTF Range with our Sellers being in Value/VAL and Cost Basis/Supports at the lower Edge. We spent few days consolidating between VAL and the Edge with a move on Tuesday that first failed to hold under 5230s pre market and then afternoon push over VAL trapping the shorts under Value.
Wednesday data brought in Volume and market continued higher through next Key Area putting the squeeze on and pushing us in/through VAH, from there one more target was left to test the Edge and see if we push through it and accept or we get a response in opposite direction, discussed last week before the tag that first tests of these bigger HTF areas often provide good response in opposite direction which gave us a tag/ supply build under Edge and a move back to VAH with Friday closing the week with filling the buyers with that Supply around VAH.
This Week :
Few things we know so far going into this week, of course depending where we will open and what we do in Globex but for now we are inside 5341 - 5290 Intraday Range, we are inside T2 Range with buyers in/under VAH and Trapped Supply/Sellers still could be over 30s and closer to the Edge Bottom of 5348. So far it looks like market has chosen 5368 - 5207 to be our HTF Range going forward until we will be ready to move out of it again which tells me we may spend time balancing around it back and forth while we distribute and fill orders as we will have buying and selling in it from Trapped Shorts and Trapped Longs/New Longs who will be looking for continuation out of this Range.
For us to see continuation higher out of this HTF Range we would need to either build a base under the Edge bottom or see a strong bid through it trapping more sellers under AND start balancing over 5256 - 52 area without coming back in, until then holding under the Edge will mean weakness BUT it doesn't mean we will just sell back down that easily as well, we have to consider that we are at ATH with no overhang above us and no real Volume built up here just yet that would give us stronger moves lower. With that in mind there is a chance that we might spend some time in and around this current Intraday Range of 5341 - 5290.25 building that Supply. As been mentioned over last few weeks, have to be careful of smaller ranges and quicker/smaller moves, especially now that we might have both sides starting to be trapped and looking to be trading in and out of their size around here.
IF Volume does come in and we accept back inside the Value and start holding under VAH we could see a move all the way back towards VAL to fill in the buyers in those areas, our Size Shorts would be trapped in Value and under VAL where we could expect absorption if we get there but careful as it could take time there as well.
IF we don't get the Volume to push us through the above Edge or the Volume to give us acceptance and continuation under 5295.50 - 90.25 Key Support then we could spend quite some time around this 5341 - 5290 Intraday Range with pushes out of it being bought or sold back inside it.
Levels to Watch :
Current Range 5341 - 5290.25
5341 - 36 Key Resistance
5324.75 - 20.75 // 5310.50 - 06.50 Means for the Range
5295.50 - 90.25 Key Support
If we are to just balance around this intraday range then we could see pushes out of the Means towards Key Areas and then returns back towards/into the Means, this is what I will be watching for unless it shows acceptance under/over Key Areas.
If Accept over 5341 - 36 next Range 5386.50 - 5336
5356 - 52 // 5370.50 - 66.50 Means and Edge Top
5386.50 - 81.50 Key Resistance
If Accept under 5295.50 - 90.25
5279.25 - 75.25 // 5264.75 - 60.75 Means and VAL
5249.75 - 44.75 Key Support
ES UpdateCRazy... way overbought and looks like a melt up.
Got stopped out of my puts for even money, but I made plenty on the CPI pump so I'm done for the week. Not gonna short anything on Ponzi Friday.
I'm not into chasing an overbought market, see ya guys Monday.
S&P500 - Clues to BUYThe S&P 500 is my favorite market to trade however my strategy struggles when price enters All Time Highs by design. I tend to try and hold positions into ATH's and beyond but this recent uptrend has proven too aggressive for my entries (See attached ideas). Last weeks close is a very subtle clue about institutional intention to buy this market.
My intuition says S&P500 is likely to move higher and start the price exploratory process between 5600 - 5350. This is a common process pattern through the summer months observed historically (institutional investors allocate before leaving for summer vacation maybe?) Unfortunately, it also means any trades for me have reduced odds until price clearly defines levels that provide my strategy an edge.
As price explores above, I'll be mindful of quick tests of support. I personally would not be comfortable with any swing long entries above 5290, which seems unlikely. From a day trade perspective, 5325 should provided good support and I doubt price trades below it for very long. Time/Price analysis indicates 5600 is a good level to watch for exhaustion of this push. 5185 and 5510 could offer some setups. Daily closes below 5300 invalidates this idea.
Any trades related to this idea in the weeks to come will be posted below. Likes and Follows are appreciated
ES Fibonacci Analysis (May 21)This Fibonacci drawing was drawn from 5315 to 5349, going up. If ES breaks above 5350, then it can continue to the next Fibonacci level of -50% at 5366. Please note the 2HR FVG close at 5339. Once price action reaches this level, price action may bounce and continue up, or fail and continue to fall lower to test the Daily FVG level again at 5315.
Trading Plan for Friday, May 24th, 2024Trading Plan for Friday, May 24th, 2024
Market Sentiment: Uncertain, as the market has transitioned from a rally to a short-term dip. Bulls are attempting to defend key supports, while bears are looking for further downside continuation.
Key Supports
Immediate Supports: 5265 (major), 5253 (major)
Major Supports: 5230-35 (major), 5202 (major), 5177 (major)
Key Resistances
Near-term Resistance: 5293 (major), 5302 (major)
Major Resistances: 5317 (major), 5380 (major), 5400 (major)
Trading Strategy
Post-Rally Dip: The market is now in a short-term dip after a prolonged rally. Exercise caution and avoid chasing longs or shorts.
Long Opportunities: Look for a bounce and reclaim above 5274 for potential long entries. Consider failed breakdowns at 5265 or a dip and reclaim at 5230-35 for more aggressive long entries.
Short Opportunities: Consider shorts at 5317 (if the market rallies strongly) or on failed breakdowns below 5265 after a bounce/retest. Exercise caution and take profits level-to-level.
Focus on Reactions and Price Discovery: Wait for confirmation signals and clear reactions at key levels before committing to any trades.
Bull Case
Defending Support: Bulls need to defend the 5265-72 zone to prevent further downside and maintain the possibility of a bounce.
Reclaiming Resistances: If bulls reclaim the 5293 and 5302 levels, the dip could be considered over, opening up a potential move towards the previous highs.
Bear Case
Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5265 could trigger further selling, targeting 5230-35 and potentially deeper levels. Look for bounces/failed breakdowns at these levels for potential short entries.
News: Top Stories for May 24th, 2024
📈 U.S. Durable Goods Orders: The latest data shows an unexpected increase in April, suggesting resilience in manufacturing despite economic headwinds.
🌍 Geopolitical Tensions and Their Economic Impacts: Recent surveys indicate that geopolitical risks are a top concern for global family offices, with significant implications for asset allocations in North America and Asia Pacific.
🛡️ Shifts in Safe Haven Assets: In an environment of growing debt concerns, investors are increasingly turning to gold over traditional government bonds, marking a significant shift in safe haven preferences.
🌎 Climate Change and Economic Impact: A session at the 10th World Water Forum highlighted the severe economic repercussions of climate change and water scarcity in Laos, underscoring the urgent need for sustainable water management solutions.
📊 Global PMI Data Releases: The release of the S&P Global Services and Manufacturing PMI reports provides critical insights into the economic conditions of the services and manufacturing sectors, which are key indicators of overall economic health.
2024-05-23 - a daily price action after hour update - sp500
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
sp500 e-mini futures
comment: Uber important trading day tomorrow. Bears need to bring their A game and trap bulls below 5300. If they manage to do so, we will close the week at the lows and get a huge sell signal going into next week.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 5270 - 5368. Below 5270 is 5220 and then 5200.
bull case: Globex printed 2 bear bars in 23 15m bars. Market then got a second leg up to a new ath 5368.25. The sell-off caught many bulls off guard and never let them out if they bought the highs. Bulls need to quickly trade back above 5300 and then 5320 or they risk that more bulls will exit their long positions going into the weekend. Invalid below 5260.
bear case: 5260 was around my measured move target, which we will very likely hit tomorrow. The real question is then if bulls can make 5250-5260 resistance or will we crash to 5200 and into the weekend? My preferred path is drawn on the chart. Invalid above 5320
short term: Bearish. This weekly close will be important. The closer bears could get it to last weeks close 5216, the better for them, going into next week.
medium-long term: Bearish. We will see 5000 over the next weeks again and 4600 over the next 12 months. —unchanged
trade of the day: Long since Globex on very strong buying to 5368 but market then went on and endless pullback and never let bulls out who bought high and that fueled the violent move down today.
Trading Plan for Wednesday, May 15th, 2024Trading Plan for Wednesday, May 15th, 2024
Market Sentiment: Bullish, consolidating within a tight range after a strong rally. The market could continue to build out a bull flag pattern or break out directly to new highs.
Key Supports
Immediate Supports: 5329 (major), 5318 (major), 5302-04 (major)
Major Supports: 5272-74 (major), 5236 (major), 5208 (major)
Key Resistances
Near-term Resistance: 5347 (major), 5365-67 (major), 5386-89 (major)
Major Resistances: 5404-07 (major), 5450 (major)
Trading Strategy
Chop Zone Management: The market is consolidating within the 5302-5347 range, with an even tighter range of 5329-5347. Avoid overtrading and focus on level-to-level scalping for small gains.
Long Opportunities: Look for a bounce and reclaim above 5317 if the 5309-11 area is tested. If the market dips lower, consider longs at 5302-04, 5272, or 5287 (major).
Short Opportunities: As always, avoid shorting green candles and breaking trends. If considering shorts, 5342-47 may offer a potential dip, but proceed with extreme caution.
Bull Case
Bull Flag Continuation: The market may continue to build out the 5309-5342 bull flag pattern, potentially breaking out for a new push into all-time highs (ATHs). Target 5359, then 5375-77 in this scenario.
Consolidation and Breakout: If the market consolidates within the 5329-5347 range and breaks out above 5347, it could target the resistances mentioned above.
Adding on Strength: Monitor overnight action for potential flagging below 5219 as a possible entry point for adding to long positions.
Bear Case
Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5302 could trigger a deeper retracement, potentially targeting 5272 and lower.
Entry Points: Look for a bounce attempt and rejection at 5302, then consider entering a short position around 5300. Remember to manage risk with level-to-level profit-taking.
News: Top Stories for May 15th, 2024
📈 Renewed Market Rally: The stock market has experienced a renewed record-setting rally, surprising many of Wall Street's top strategists and prompting revisions of year-end S&P 500 targets. This surge reflects robust confidence in market fundamentals and investor optimism.
🌍 Geopolitical Tensions and Commodity Prices: The death of Iran's President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash has introduced new uncertainties into the oil market, potentially affecting global oil prices. Concurrently, gold futures have reached new record settlements amid growing geopolitical tensions and rate-cut expectations.
🏦 Federal Reserve's Economic Outlook: The minutes from the Federal Reserve's latest meeting are highly anticipated as they may provide further clarity on the timing of potential rate cuts and reveal the level of consensus among policymakers. This release is crucial for understanding the Fed's future monetary policy direction.
💼 Corporate Earnings Reports: Nvidia's earnings report is particularly significant as it is a key driver of the S&P 500's recent growth. Investors and analysts will be closely watching this report to gauge the health of the tech sector and its impact on broader market trends.
📊 Global Economic Indicators: Recent data releases, such as the CPI report and retail sales data, have fueled speculations of a cooling economy. These indicators are essential for assessing the overall health of the economy and potential shifts in monetary policy.
SP500**SP500:**
New all time high at 5347.
This week's forecast is for the price to descend and match the EMA55 level.
Trading Plan for Monday, May 20th, 2024Trading Plan for Monday, May 20th, 2024
Market Sentiment: Bullish, consolidating after a historic rally.
Key Supports
Immediate Supports: 5309-11 (major), 5302 (major), 5294
Major Supports: 5267-72 (major), 5232-35 (major), 5208-11 (major), 5150-55 (major)
Key Resistances
Near-term Resistance: 5329, 5333 (major), 5342-5345 (major)
Major Resistances: 5375-77 (major), 5404-07 (major)
Trading Strategy
Consolidation & Pattern Formation: The market is in a post-rally consolidation phase, likely forming a bull flag pattern between 5309 and 5342. Expect choppy trading with potential for breakouts or breakdowns.
Long Opportunities: Wait for a test of 5309-11 support, followed by a bounce and reclaim above 5317, as a potential long entry signal.
Short Opportunities: As always, avoid shorting green candles and breaking trends. If considering shorts, wait for a confirmed breakdown of 5302, then look for an entry around 5300 after a bounce or failed breakdown.
Level-to-Level Trading: Focus on scalping profits within the range as the market consolidates. Exercise patience and avoid overtrading in this choppy environment.
Bull Case
Bull Flag Continuation: The market may continue to fill out the 5309-5342 range, potentially leading to a breakout toward new all-time highs. Target 5359 and 5375-77 in this scenario.
Adding on Strength: Monitor overnight action for potential flagging above 5309 and below 5219 as a possible entry point for adding to long positions.
Bear Case
Breakdown Signals: A breakdown below 5302, with confirmation from a bounce attempt and rejection, would signal a more significant correction. Use caution with breakdown trades as they are prone to traps.
News: Top Stories for May 20th, 2024
🇨🇳 Steady Benchmark Lending Rates in China: Amidst ongoing efforts to stabilize the property sector, China's central bank has maintained its benchmark lending rates. This decision follows a series of bold measures aimed at addressing challenges in the property sector, highlighting the delicate balance the government seeks to maintain in its economic policies.
🏦 Federal Reserve's Upcoming Policy Meeting Minutes: Investors are keenly awaiting the release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve's recent policy meeting. This document is expected to provide critical insights into the Fed's economic outlook and future policy directions, influencing market sentiments and investment strategies.
🌐 Geopolitical Tensions and Trade Policies: The global trade environment remains tense as geopolitical issues continue to unfold. Notably, the U.S. President's decision to raise tariffs on Chinese goods has reignited debates over the economic impacts of such tariffs, with potential repercussions for international trade relations and domestic economies.
📉 Global Market Reactions to Mixed Economic Data: As the world economies emit mixed signals, global markets are poised for a potential summertime rally, albeit with an awareness of the risks that could derail such optimism. This scenario underscores the complex interplay of economic indicators and market psychology in shaping investment landscapes.
🏦 Regulatory Adjustments and Financial Sector Implications: Discussions among regulators about reducing proposed capital requirements signify a shift that could enhance the clout of banks. Such regulatory adjustments are crucial as they could affect the stability and operational strategies of financial institutions globally, reflecting broader trends in financial regulation and oversight.
ES1!, big picturePutting on my bear hat this morning and reflecting on how difficult the move up from October 2022 low has been to interpret, from an Elliott Wave perspective.
If you were trying to convince yourself of a major market top and completed five-wave impulse, I think this is how you'd have to do it. Wave ((5)) ends of being an expanding ending diagonal off October 2022 low.
The price action off the October 2022 low has just been "weird". If you are a bull, you might see a leading diagonal and running flat to get wave ((5) started. Bears likely see double and triple-threes until the move up off October 2023 low.
I think the thing that supports this idea the most is the parallel channel that connects waves ((1)), ((3)), and ((5)) and supports ((2)) and ((4)) of this proposed wave count.
I'm not saying this is my primary count, but it is a count I am following.
