Fair Value Gaps With Fibonacci Has Changed My Trading ForeverGave yall this one last night for FREE When we get the 618 Fibonacci in a fair value gap the win rate can dramatically increase Got $3k on this trade in 15 mins I plan to share more PLEASE DROP A LIKE AND FOLLOW!by tradingwarzone1
Now over $6k on this trade gave yall last week Here is the FULL System for FREE 1 - Identify the FALSE breakdown or trap AKA double bottom 2 - Wait for the FVG to form to enter the trade 3 - To increase the win rate add the FIBONACCI tool and enter on the 618 within the FVG Drop a LIKE For more FREE SYSTEMS AND TRADE IDEAS!by tradingwarzone1
AMP Futures - Indicator TemplatesIn this video we will demonstrate how to create indicator templates with Tradingview.Education02:24by AMP_Futures2
Options Blueprint Series: Secure Interest Rates with Box SpreadsIntroduction The E-mini S&P 500 Futures is a popular and widely traded derivative product. These futures are used by traders and investors to hedge their portfolios, gain market exposure, and manage risk. The Options Box Strategy is an advanced options trading technique that involves creating a synthetic long position and a synthetic short position simultaneously. This strategy is designed to lock in interest rates and profit from price discrepancies, essentially securing a risk-free return through arbitrage. By using Box Spreads, traders can secure interest rates and achieve a potential arbitrage opportunity in a controlled and predictable manner. An interesting application of the Box Spread strategy is using unutilized capital in a trading account. Traders can earn a risk-free return on idle cash by deploying it in Box Spreads. This approach maximizes the utility of available capital, providing an additional revenue stream without increasing market risk exposure, thus enhancing overall portfolio performance. E-mini S&P 500 Futures Contract Specifications: Contract Size: $50 times the S&P 500 Index Minimum Tick Size: 0.25 index points, equal to $12.50 per contract Trading Hours: Nearly 24 hours a day, five days a week Margin Requirement: $11,800 at the time of publishing this article Micro E-minis: 10 times smaller than the E-minis Understanding Box Spreads A Box Spread is a sophisticated options strategy that involves simultaneously entering a long call and short put at one strike price and a long put and short call at another strike price. Components of a Box Spread: Long Call: Buying a call option at a specific strike price. Short Put: Selling a put option at the same strike price as the long call. Long Put: Buying a put option at a different strike price. Short Call: Selling a call option at the same strike price as the long put. How Box Spreads Secure Interest Rates: Box Spreads are designed to exploit mispricings between the synthetic long and short positions. By locking in these positions, traders can secure interest rates as the net result of the Box Spread should theoretically yield a risk-free return. This strategy is particularly useful in stable market conditions where interest rate fluctuations can impact the profitability of other trading strategies. Advantages of Using Box Spreads: Arbitrage Opportunities: Box Spreads allow traders to capitalize on discrepancies in the pricing of options, securing a risk-free profit. Predictable Returns: The strategy locks in a fixed rate of return, providing certainty and stability. Risk Management: By simultaneously holding synthetic long and short positions, the risk is minimized, making it an effective strategy for conservative traders. Applying Box Spreads on E-mini S&P 500 Futures To apply the Box Spread strategy on E-mini S&P 500 Futures, follow the following step-by-step approach. Step-by-Step: 1. Identify Strike Prices: Choose two strike prices for the options. For instance, select a lower strike price (LK) and a higher strike price (HK). 2. Enter Long Call and Short Put: Buy a call option at the lower strike price (K1). Sell a put option at the same lower strike price (K1). 3. Enter Long Put and Short Call: Buy a put option at the higher strike price (K2). Sell a call option at the same higher strike price (K2). Potential Outcomes and Rate Security: The Box Spread locks in a risk-free return by exploiting price discrepancies. The profit is determined by the difference between the strike prices minus the net premium paid. In stable market conditions, this strategy provides a predictable and secure return, effectively locking in interest rates. Advantages of Applying Box Spreads: Risk-Free Arbitrage: The primary benefit is securing a risk-free profit through arbitrage. Predictable Returns: Provides a fixed return, beneficial for conservative traders. Minimal Risk: By holding both synthetic long and short positions, market risk is mitigated. Considerations: Ensure precise execution to avoid slippage and maximize the arbitrage opportunity. Account for transaction costs, as they can impact the overall profitability. Monitor market conditions to ensure the strategy remains effective. Example Trade Setup: Let's consider a practical example of setting up a Box Spread on the E-mini S&P 500 Futures while its current trading price is 5,531. We'll use the following strike prices: Lower Strike Price (K1): 5450 Higher Strike Price (K2): 5650 Transactions: Sell Call at 5650: Premium = 240.01 Buy Put at 5650: Premium = 352.85 Sell Put at 5450: Premium = 270.59 Buy Call at 5450: Premium = 347.39 Note: We are using the CME Group Options Calculator in order to generate fair value prices and Greeks for any options on futures contracts. Net Premium Calculation: Net premium paid = 347.39 - 240.01 + 352.85 - 270.59 = 189.64 Potential Profit Calculation: Profit = (Higher Strike Price - Lower Strike Price) - Net Premium Paid Profit = 5650 – 5450 – 189.64 = 10.36 points = $518 ($50 per point) Rate Of Return (ROR) Calculation: Margin Requirement = (Higher Strike Price - Lower Strike Price) × Contract Multiplier = 200 x 50 = $10,000 ROR = 518 / 10000 = 5.18% Annualized ROR = 518 / 10000 x 365.25 / 383 = 4.94% (based on the screenshots, expiration will take place in 383.03 days while a year is made of 365.25 days) Interesting Application: Utilizing Box Spreads with Unutilized Capital An intriguing application of the Box Spread strategy is the use of unutilized capital in a trading account. Traders often have idle cash in their accounts that isn't actively engaged in trading. By deploying this capital in Box Spreads, traders can earn a risk-free return on otherwise dormant funds. This approach not only maximizes the utility of available capital but also provides an additional revenue stream without increasing market risk exposure. Utilizing Box Spreads in this manner can enhance overall portfolio performance, making efficient use of all available resources. Importance of Risk Management Risk management is a critical aspect of any trading strategy, including the implementation of Box Spreads on E-mini S&P 500 Futures. Effective risk management ensures that traders can mitigate potential losses and protect their capital, leading to more consistent and sustainable trading performance. Conclusion Implementing the Options Box Strategy on E-mini S&P 500 Futures may allow traders to secure interest rates and potentially achieve risk-free arbitrage opportunities. By understanding the mechanics of Box Spreads and applying them effectively, traders can capitalize on price discrepancies in the options market to lock in predictable returns. Key points to remember include: E-mini S&P 500 Futures offer accessible and efficient trading opportunities for both hedging and speculative purposes. Box Spreads combine synthetic long and short positions, providing a powerful tool for securing interest rates through arbitrage. By following the outlined steps and leveraging classical technical indicators, traders can enhance their ability to set up and analyze Box Spreads, making the most of this advanced options strategy. Utilizing Box Spreads on E-mini S&P 500 Futures not only can secure interest rates but can also provide a structured and disciplined approach to trading, leading to more consistent and sustainable trading performance. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.Educationby traddictiv1
The stage is setThe stage is set in the S&P 500 in preparation for labor numbers coming out on Friday. Market reaction is 50-50 when you have this type of report. The bias is for a positive close going into the weekend.02:18by DanGramza1
The Mechanics Of Trading - Part X - EOD 2 Min ES RecapPart X - End Of Day 2 Min ES Recap I started this video because a friend asked me for help determining trends on multi-interval (time frames) and asked how I look at trading across multiple intervals. Asking how to best setup/use price trends to capture the best trade setups. Essentially, it comes down to three key components... A. Initial reversal/impulse waves should be traded lightly (if at all). They are the "potential price reversal setups" that are usually the most dangerous for traders (and often fairly short in length). B. Looking for the second wave to form provides traders with the opportunity to catch the bigger Wave-3. This wave forms after the impulse (Wave-1) and a corrective wave (Wave-2), which must stay below any previous ultimate high or above any previous ultimate low. C. Wave-3, and Wave-5 if applicable, are where traders can flex their muscles related to trade size using the techniques I present to try to capture the MEAT (Sweet Spot) of any trend. Remember, after Wave-3, you must prepare for the potential end of a trend setup where volatility is likely to increase and risks become a bit more elevated. I go over multiple techniques in this video. Fibonacci techniques and Fibonacci Price Theory Anchor Bars (breakaway bars) Using Fibonacci Retracements to identify key support/resistance levels for trending Stochastics RSI Wave formations (ZigZag) and Others This video is designed as an instructional video to help you incorporate usable techniques into your own trading style. Hope you enjoy.Education29:41by BradMatheny1
Analysis for the Week of 06/03/2024 - SPY QQQ META COIN BTCA video going over my thoughts and expectations for the week, I'll continue to post ideas and updates as things develop throughout the week.10:34by AdvancedPlays1
Upside move is expected for MondayContinuation of an upside move is expected for Monday in the S&P 500. Buyers entered the market on Friday. The challenge will be there ability to be consistent with additional moves to the upside.02:08by DanGramza1
AMP Futures - How to apply an OCO Bracket order (Post Entry)In this video we will demonstrate how to apply an OCO Bracket order to an open position with no (Take profit) & (Stop Loss).Education10:29by AMP_Futures2
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 5.28 - 5.31Last Week : Last week Market opened over VAH and spent all week building Supply over it, as discussed in Sunday Prep since we were at ATH with no over hang we needed to wait for Supply to build up for any meaningful back fill of previous areas and that 5341 - 5290 might be our Range where price will want to stay around and keep returning into for some time while it builds that Supply. On Thursday we ended up pushing inside the Edge but failed to find acceptance in it and the push back out gave us the flush of the inventory filling the buyers into the Value, even with how strong the move looked with break/hold under Key Support on Friday Globex failed to hold under it and we found our way back inside 5341 - 5290 Range where we were able to push back into the Means for the Range where we closed the week in VAH. This Week : Few things this week, we have Month End, Settlement changes from T2 to T1 which we don't know just yet how that will impact the trading and we had Holiday yesterday which pushed us over VAH and we are again building up Supply over it. For now we are inside T2 Range which was Thursday I believe the change goes in effect Today or this week, we are right around Previous Days Range and 5341 - 36 already showed us this morning that it's acting properly as good Resistance. So far going into this week Thursdays flush showed us that don't have stronger buyers up here just yet who want to keep paying over Value and keep pushing us into new range above and that even with strong flush we didn't have enough Supply to accept under 5295 - 90 to continue filling more buyers into VAL. This tells me again that market may want to stay in this 5341 - 5290 Intraday Range and balance around it, we have to be ready to spend quite a bit of time in these areas and trade around them until market will show us clear acceptance and intensions of moving Ranges and that can take some time because we are in a Key Spot on higher time frames we are at tops of Daily/Weekly Balances without finding acceptance above and without having the Supply just yet to move under the Middle of those balances which is around the 5290-80s area. Plan is to continue trading 5341 - 5290 Range level to level just like last week with moves out of its 5324.75 - 20.75 // 5310.50 - 06.50 Means and then returns back towards/inside them. Failures to accept over 5341 - 36 will likely find their way back to/under 24.75 - 20.75, pushes under 5310.50 - 06.50 could also be absorbed under and find their way back to/over 10.50 - 06.50 and inside the Means we could balance. We are in lower volume times so also have to give time for the moves to properly set up and be ready to correct back. Levels to watch : Current Range 5341 - 5290.25 5341 - 36 Key Resistance 5324.75 - 20.75 // 5310.50 - 06.50 Means for the Range 5295.50 - 90.25 Key Support If Accept over 5341 - 36 next Range 5386.50 - 5336 5356 - 52 // 5370.50 - 66.50 Means and Edge Top 5386.50 - 81.50 Key Resistance If Accept under 5295.50 - 90.25 lower Range 5295.50 - 5244.75 5279.25 - 75.25 // 5264.75 - 60.75 Means and VAL 5249.75 - 44.75 Key Supportby HollowMnUpdated 1
GDP drop as expect + Bear Flag If you check 1D time frame you can see Gap down that show strong selling pressure On 1H show bear flag show impulse down wave hope this trade set up is good this time Shortby tofinse1
Dumpster FireWith the S&Ps inability to hold above the overnight low today, inflation data on tap for tomorrow, and an almost insane amont of crowding in every good trade available I think it is time to pay for our hubris. NVDA trade is showing cracks, MSFTs buyback program seemingly on hold and a vix close above the 50 day tells me we are in for some short term pain. Extended personal outlook: *this is not finical advice, I'm not a financial advisor! The fact that FED members are even mentioning rate hikes, even if to just dissuade us that the next move will not be one, should be alarming. Maybe they will give us a transitory rate hike. Probably not this year, but by year end, I expect the market to catch on to the fact that rates are going higher.by poedric220
The end is nigh..."one more high."This is an Ending Diagonal. Notice, it is a contracting ED, and incidentally, the intersection of its top and bottom trend lines provide an ideal end point. A little bird told me 5375 was ripe for selling, and this picture makes me confident he was right. ATH 5362.75 at the time of this post, but calling it, anyway, as late as 5375.75. If not today, maybe in the week. Best, CuzShortby CuzDeluxUpdated 331
ES, SPX - Santa Rally could trigger Cup & Handle patternA strong end to Q4 Window dressing by fund managers who were underweight equities would trigger a cup handle pattern breaking the trendline of the pattern is around 4600 on the #ES I could also make an argument for HVF pattern we have a high 3 in place A recession will no doubt rear it's head at some point ... but a blow off top first to hand bears a beating is definitely a scenario I have shared before. by BallaJiUpdated 6
Summer SebaticalI'm excited to share that I'll be taking a summer sabbatical to recharge. As a result, the newsletter will be on a brief hiatus. But don't worry, I'll be back in September, refreshed and ready to dive back into the markets with you. Wishing you a profitable summer!by spytradingpro221
Trends Mixed; Overall Neutral Short Term on MarketsSo, as stated in the video, the shorter term timeframes of 30m/1hr/2hr have opened up to lower movements, while the 3hr/4hr/6hr have been violated and would call for a movement back up, but haven't shown that potential movement yet. We are still in a short term Bullish Zone in accordance with my moving momentum algorithm, but we are very close to hitting below that Zero Line into Bearish territory, especially if we continue to stay low like this. What I may look for is a movement into the Bearish zone, a move upward, and if that movement upward doesn't bounce us back into a bullish zone I may short the market, but we shall see. Overall long term, I'm curious if the Daily can push below and settle under 5160ish for a Lower Low. It would be the first time in quite some time that we had a lower low on the Daily trend, putting us at risk of getting a lower high Daily rebound that will call for markets to be on a decline. Overall, The Mag 7, especially NVidia, still continue to mostly carry the market with the bulk of the Dow in neutral territory at best, and the Nasdaq outside of the Mag 7 also neutral. I continue to be concerned about this rally being too narrow and traders continuing to use Mag 7 stocks as safety stashes, and what will happen if they choose to take that safety money out to stash it somewhere else. Trends into today are; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots (ES Contract) 30m - 5319 Downtrend (5/28/2024) Lower Low 1Hr - 5313 Downtrend (5/28/2024) Lower Low 2Hr - 5309 Downtrend (5/28/2024) Lower Low 3Hr - 5286 Downtrend (5/23/2024) Higher Low 4Hr - 5286 Downtrend (5/23/2024) Higher Low 6Hr - 5287 Downtrend (5/23/2024) Higher Low 12Hr - 5188 Uptrend (5/6/2024) Higher High Daily - 5330 Uptrend (5/15/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4769 Uptrend (12/11/2023) Higher High Monthly - 5304 Uptrend (03/31/2024) Higher High Economic Calendar; GDP Thursday PCE Friday Earnings to watch; Salesforce AMC today Costco earnings are tomorrow My sentiment on the market is as follows; Shorter Term - Bearish Short Term - Bearish / Neutral Medium Term - Neutral / Bullish Long Term - Bullish Basically, I don't see major risks in the long-term just yet, but the short term is a bag of mixed reactions. Currently in a place I feel we may need to look elsewhere. If you were looking for me to give you a warm and fuzzy on where to trade the ES Futures, I just can't give that today. Safe trading and remember your risk management.09:24by SemperTraderUpdated 1
AMP Futures - Keyboard ShortcutsIn this video we will demonstrate how to use Keyboard shortcuts with TradingView.Education04:04by AMP_Futures2
Be cautious on the downsideBe cautious on the downside in the S&P 500 for Thursday's market movement. It would not be surprising to see the S&P 500 moved to lower prices but the expectation is a bounce on the downside which means the market would trade up above its low.01:24by DanGramza3
50-50The expectation for the S&P 500 on Friday is 50-50 in terms of moving up or down. It will primarily depend on how the market absorbs the PCE number.02:21by DanGramza1
Quiet day on TuesdayThe expectation for the S&P 500 for Wednesday's market action is a quiet day basically trading inside the range of Tuesday.01:14by DanGramza2
Follow through to the upside is expected.Follow through to the upside is expected in the S&P 500 for Tuesday, May 28. The price objective is a close above 5340.01:39by DanGramza1
MES - Potential For some MM TargetsWaiting to see if we get the level to risk off, Waiting for some real US market Momentum Monday likely to lack follow through until US openLongby AgedvagabondUpdated 1
Overreaction on ThursdayAfter the overreaction by the S&P 500 to the fundamental news Fridays bounce back to the upside in the S&P 500 is logical. The issue now is will buyers follow through in the shortened session on Monday.03:48by DanGramza3